2018/2019 Offseason Thread

[Namaste]

I can't understand a quantity type deal. The Marlins have a decent amount of decent prospects. They need quality at this point. That's what they lack. If I'm the Marlins, I'm only taking a deal that lands you at least one, probably two big time prospects.

Precisely

[Lee Stone]

I can't understand a quantity type deal. The Marlins have a decent amount of decent prospects. They need quality at this point. That's what they lack. If I'm the Marlins, I'm only taking a deal that lands you at least one, probably two big time prospects.

That's the problem. Lewis Brinson was a big time prospect ... Harrison was highly regarded too. Go back five years. Half of the top 25 prospects in baseball pan out, the other half are Buxton, Russell, Almora, Bundy, Butler, Stephenson, etc. That's one good reason to shop for quantity; you just never know.

The Marlins have a decent amount of decent prospects. I can't agree. According to fangraphs, as an example, the Marlins have only a handful of decent prospects, none of which has a high ceiling.

Looking back on potential trades that may have significantly changed the Marlins, I liked this one: https://www.fishstripes.com/2013/8/6...on-gerrit-cole Just for fun, 2018 WAR for Stanton: 4.0 For the three almost Marlins: G Cole 5.1 Marte 3.7 and Taillon 4.4 (That's 13.2 WAR total!)

[lou]

I can't understand a quantity type deal. The Marlins have a decent amount of decent prospects. They need quality at this point. That's what they lack. If I'm the Marlins, I'm only taking a deal that lands you at least one, probably two big time prospects.

Do you think there is a difference between:

FV60, FV50/FV45+, FV40

or

FV55, FV50, FV 50/45+, FV45/40

That's basically the difference between the packages they can expect. A FV60 guy is a top 20-25 prospect, FV55 top 21-50ish, FV50 ranges wildly, but is around a top 50-125 prospect. If we're viewing that as a "quantity" deal, I'm OK not getting a top 20 overall prospect and aiming in on two guys say, top 40-80 range.

I'm just not getting the pushback against a hypothetical deal where they dont get a top 20 overall prospect. He has 2 years of control.

[Lee Stone]

The two years of Realmuto control (albeit at a bargain $13-15M) are definitely a handicap in getting highest value. I go back to the CINN/NYY trade that just occurred. A Gray deal was provisional. Reds had 48 hrs to agree to an extension with a pitcher in his final year of control. That seems like a very "adult" approach to things.

Given that an extension would provide great security to JT, that would seem to be in his interest as well. I would take the best offer for JT under such a scenario, then move on to the next best if no extension agreement is reached. Taking that tact would logically increase the number of interested teams as well.

[lou]

The two years of Realmuto control (albeit at a bargain $13-15M) are definitely a handicap in getting highest value. I go back to the CINN/NYY trade that just occurred. A Gray deal was provisional. Reds had 48 hrs to agree to an extension with a pitcher in his final year of control. That seems like a very "adult" approach to things.

Given that an extension would provide great security to JT, that would seem to be in his interest as well. I would take the best offer for JT under such a scenario, then move on to the next best if no extension agreement is reached. Taking that tact would logically increase the number of interested teams as well.

They should definitely give an acquiring team a 24+ hour window to negotiate a deal, especially since the number is easy - 5/$80-85.

Base JT's value off of that (give/take $75 million surplus), throw in Conley ($10+) or Steckenrider (20+) to bridge a gap, and call it a day.

[fauowls44]

Jon Heyman

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#marlins were a team in on nick markakis. they'd still like a lefty bat. and probably an OF.

8:42 AM - 24 Jan 2019

[tjfla]

Do you think there is a difference between:

FV60, FV50/FV45+, FV40

or

FV55, FV50, FV 50/45+, FV45/40

That's basically the difference between the packages they can expect. A FV60 guy is a top 20-25 prospect, FV55 top 21-50ish, FV50 ranges wildly, but is around a top 50-125 prospect. If we're viewing that as a "quantity" deal, I'm OK not getting a top 20 overall prospect and aiming in on two guys say, top 40-80 range.

I'm just not getting the pushback against a hypothetical deal where they dont get a top 20 overall prospect. He has 2 years of control.

This is what I meant when say quantity. Only teams I would do it with is LAD and TB but get 4-6 "things" rather than just 3

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Jon Heyman

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#marlins were a team in on nick markakis. they'd still like a lefty bat. and probably an OF.

8:42 AM - 24 Jan 2019

Marlins are IN on every lefty bat on the market. They want a guy who can play IF/OF

They would like to trade JT before they sign 1 however

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Bob Nightengale
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The #Dodgers still are hoping to make several moves before spring training, but are focusing most of their attention with the #Marlins in hopes of acquiring All-Star catcher J.T. Realmuto.

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Marlins are asking for Verdugo/Ruiz and 1 of May,Alvarez,Lux,Jeter Downs however deal could grow to include Pitching and more prospects/IFA Cash

[fauowls44]

This is what I meant when say quantity. Only teams I would do it with is LAD and TB but get 4-6 "things" rather than just 3

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Marlins are IN on every lefty bat on the market. They want a guy who can play IF/OF

They would like to trade JT before they sign 1 however

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Bob Nightengale
Verified account @BNightengale

The #Dodgers still are hoping to make several moves before spring training, but are focusing most of their attention with the #Marlins in hopes of acquiring All-Star catcher J.T. Realmuto.

- - - - - - - - - -

Marlins are asking for Verdugo/Ruiz and 1 of May,Alvarez,Lux,Jeter Downs however deal could grow to include Pitching and more prospects/IFA Cash

Seems like more writers are connecting JT to the Dodgers this week.

[tjfla]

Seems like more writers are connecting JT to the Dodgers this week.

LAD have been in on him but didn't wanna trade Bellinger. Marlins dropped price and with LAD talking to Pollock they are all putting 2 and 2 together

Verdugo/1 of their C/1 of May,Alvarez,Lux,Downs(Downs the fave) just makes to much sense to ALL

I wouldnt be surprised to see something like(If LAD wants pitching too)

LAD-JT/Steck or Conley
Miami-Verdugo/Ruiz/Downs/SP(Alvarez? White? Gonsolin?)/1.25 IFA cash

1 thing is Miami hates LAD FO cause of Stanton/Yelich talks so if they do get any farther-LAD better be ready to pay up

Still hearing its Atlanta/TB/Houston but LAD could move up fast

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JT talks will pick up AFTER Harper and Machado sign.

Stuff to watch with Miami next few days is RP Market. We are in on a few

[fauowls44]

Jeff Passan

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Free agent outfielder A.J. Pollock is in agreement with the Los Angeles Dodgers, league sources tell ESPN. They have been discussing a five-year deal in the $60 million-plus range, though it's unclear if those are indeed the final terms. @Ken_Rosenthal had the deal done first.

Dodgers now can afford to deal an OF...hmmm

[Lee Stone]

I'm certainly intrigued by Dodger prospects. Priorities for Miami IMO 1)Ruiz 2) Gavin Lux 3) Jeter Downs and 4) Austin Barnes. Lux, despite playing SS, is a better fit for 2b and has vastly more upside than Isan Diaz. No problem incl. Steck or Conley. Ruiz, Lux, Downs would be a great look for the MI in 2020. Love a reunion with Barnes. While Verdugo would instantly take over CF and the leadoff spot, I'm just not caring so much about him. Dodgers have no problem extending Realmuto if/when they want to.

[emkayseven]

was just coming here to say I've gotta think the Pollock signing puts them super in on JT.

[tjfla]

Jeff Passan

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Free agent outfielder A.J. Pollock is in agreement with the Los Angeles Dodgers, league sources tell ESPN. They have been discussing a five-year deal in the $60 million-plus range, though it's unclear if those are indeed the final terms. @Ken_Rosenthal had the deal done first.

Dodgers now can afford to deal an OF...hmmm

Pollock signed and NOW LAD has Joc,Bellinger,Verdugo,Toles as left handed bats who can play the OF and are in the majors

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was just coming here to say I've gotta think the Pollock signing puts them super in on JT.

Tons of options for US if LAD is serious(Ruiz is gonna be in ANY deal)

Can go
Verdugo/Ruiz/Jeter Downs
Ruiz/Joc Pederson/Jeter Downs/SP
Ruiz/Joc Pederson/Jeter Downs/SP/IFA Cash
for

JT and if needed Conley OR Steck

We can either keep Pederson OR trade him. CWS had interest and have great system

[emkayseven]

hard pass on Joc. Verdugo or Bellinger pls

[fauowls44]

Pollock signed and NOW LAD has Joc,Bellinger,Verdugo,Toles as left handed bats who can play the OF and are in the majors

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Tons of options for US if LAD is serious(Ruiz is gonna be in ANY deal)

Can go
Verdugo/Ruiz/Jeter Downs
Ruiz/Joc Pederson/Jeter Downs/SP
Ruiz/Joc Pederson/Jeter Downs/SP/IFA Cash
for

JT and if needed Conley OR Steck

I can't see Pederson as a fit for the Marlins. He's a 2021 free agent. I'd rather have Verdugo if those are my choices.