2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[lou]

Salas seems to have all the tools. I just don't think you trade that kind of potential.

If I were trading Pablo to the Twins, it would have been for Royce Lewis.

Note: If Perez, Eder and Fulton all pitch for Jacksonville, it might be the best AAA rotation ever. Then again, it is not totally inconceivable that Sixto Sanchez could wind up a part of that rotation too.

I agree with Royce, but it doesn't seem like he was available so we can't be angry.

I think AAA likely opens with Sixto, Castano, Smeltzer, and Hoeing in the rotation. Not sure who the last guy or two might be. It's probably Chi Chi Gonzalez, and looking at the AAA stats some guy named Jeff Lindgren got some starts so he may be a filler arm there as he doesn't seem like a top prospect even if he's in AAA already.

I'm not sure how fast they push Eury and Eder, but they'll be there by the summer. They don't need to push either of them though. AA is fine for them to reassess in mid-May/June. Fulton is no question in AA for 100+ innings and maybe dips his feet in AAA at the end of the year. Remember, Fulton doesn't need to go on the 40 man so he's extremely likely a post-super 2 deadline 2024 player.

[Nick]

I agree with Royce, but it doesn't seem like he was available so we can't be angry.

I think AAA likely opens with Sixto, Castano, Smeltzer, and Hoeing in the rotation. Not sure who the last guy or two might be. It's probably Chi Chi Gonzalez, and looking at the AAA stats some guy named Jeff Lindgren got some starts so he may be a filler arm there as he doesn't seem like a top prospect even if he's in AAA already.

I'm not sure how fast they push Eury and Eder, but they'll be there by the summer. They don't need to push either of them though. AA is fine for them to reassess in mid-May/June. Fulton is no question in AA for 100+ innings and maybe dips his feet in AAA at the end of the year. Remember, Fulton doesn't need to go on the 40 man so he's extremely likely a post-super 2 deadline 2024 player.

If any of the 3 force their way onto a big league roster with great play at AAA, and there is a clear need. They should be in the big leagues. Sure you pay attention to super 2 status and that stuff, but you can't say this guy is going to remain in the minors no matter what this season, when you're as desperate to win as we should be.

[lou]

Jose Salas is a 19 year old in A+ ball. The likelihood that he becomes even an above average MLB starter is super low at this point. He's more likely to never play in the big leagues. He is talented, but he isnt a cant miss prospect. He had a combined .722 OPS in A and A+ ball. MLb has him as the twins 13th best prospect.

They needed a major bat upgrade for Pablo, and they got him. Arraez is one of the best pure hitters in baseball and one of the best leadoff hitters in baseball as well. They have other pieces to get those other guys you wanted if they want to. They needed a guy who we know can produce at a high level at the major league level, and they got that. You're gonna love Arraez within a month of opening day.

I agree with Arraez. It's hard to argue with a guy with a career .375 OBP / 7.1% K rate, and his EV, Max EV, and launch angle are all INCREASING.

As mentioned in posts past, this is the kind or profile where some sort of tweak in his approach creates a peak Dan Murphy/Jeff McNeil hitting profile. Lop on 20 more XBH versus some singles and he is an absolute, absolute, monster and that is not a lot of change to hope for with his contact rates. Also note, he's always putting the ball in play, with a lot of soft contact, so more of those weak grounders are becoming dribbler singles too. A lot to like here, but they did give up a lot for him. They should just extend him now that they know the arbitration scale. Maybe that's what they were waiting for as that does impact a valuation.

[lou]

If any of the 3 force their way onto a big league roster with great play at AAA, and there is a clear need. They should be in the big leagues. Sure you pay attention to super 2 status and that stuff, but you can't say this guy is going to remain in the minors no matter what this season, when you're as desperate to win as we should be.

I would maintain the worst personnel decision this organization ever made was calling up Fernandez to start the year. So I do think they need to be conscious here when we're talking likely weeks.

It's effectively Eury/Eder after June 15th this year. Fulton after April 20, 2024 (super 2 --> what they should have done with Meyer last year and didn't to note). And Fulton after June 15, 2024. They can manage everything around that, it's not pushing the needle too much IMO. But as soon as the are a top 13 pitcher in the organization after these dates, I agree, let them rip and don't look back.

[Nick]

I would maintain the worst personnel decision this organization ever made was calling up Fernandez to start the year. So I do think they need to be conscious here when we're talking likely weeks.

It's effectively Eury/Eder after June 15th this year. Fulton after April 20, 2024 (super 2 --> what they should have done with Meyer last year and didn't to note). And Fulton after June 15, 2024. They can manage everything around that, it's not pushing the needle too much IMO. But as soon as the are a top 13 pitcher in the organization after these dates, I agree, let them rip and don't look back.

Not to be morbid, but if anybody proves you should let a guy shine on the biggest stage as soon as they're ready it's Jose.

[fish16]

Not to be morbid, but if anybody proves you should let a guy shine on the biggest stage as soon as they're ready it's Jose.

agreed. Enough of the service time games. When they are ready, bring them up unless its like the kris bryant situation where a guy is a top prospect and you get a full extra year for a week of waiting. 3 months? no. play to win.

Also, mlb has now incentivized teams to bring guys up earlier. They need to make it even more significant, but if a guy wins rookie of the year and he started the year on the big league roster, you get a first round pick. Mariners got the 29th overall pick next year for doing that with Rodriguez. I hate the way the mlb incentive structure is set up. There should be 0 incentives for keeping your more talented players in the minors for longer. How they go about doing that, im not sure, but it's terrible for the game to be incentivized to keep prospects in the minors longer.

I've seen lou mention it a few times, but playing service time games with sixto sanchez of all people would be beyond stupid.

[fish16]

I agree with Arraez. It's hard to argue with a guy with a career .375 OBP / 7.1% K rate, and his EV, Max EV, and launch angle are all INCREASING.

As mentioned in posts past, this is the kind or profile where some sort of tweak in his approach creates a peak Dan Murphy/Jeff McNeil hitting profile. Lop on 20 more XBH versus some singles and he is an absolute, absolute, monster and that is not a lot of change to hope for with his contact rates. Also note, he's always putting the ball in play, with a lot of soft contact, so more of those weak grounders are becoming dribbler singles too. A lot to like here, but they did give up a lot for him. They should just extend him now that they know the arbitration scale. Maybe that's what they were waiting for as that does impact a valuation.

also, without the shift, you have to imagine he becomes even more valuable. Im not sure if they were shifting him very much, but it cant hurt to have it banned now. Im happy they banned it. Should help Jesus Sanchez a ton as well.

[lou]

Not to be morbid, but if anybody proves you should let a guy shine on the biggest stage as soon as they're ready it's Jose.

If they kept Fernandez down 2 weeks they got a year of service time. My issue is that. Jose could have started 26 games his rookie year instead and they'd have another full year of control. It was malpractice. So let's never do that again.

Eury is a fair comp here as Fernandez just came up for A+ as the prodigy. If Eury is deemed ready now and fuck all this noise, he is named the 5th SP and Cabrera/Garrett are both pushed to 120 IP and all three of them share that rotation spot effectively,, just wait 2 weeks into the year and you get a full year of service time. I mean, the bar is low here.

They do get it in the FO though. Cabrera and Garrett having .168 days of service time is awesome. That's how you do it.

[lou]

agreed. Enough of the service time games. When they are ready, bring them up unless its like the kris bryant situation where a guy is a top prospect and you get a full extra year for a week of waiting. 3 months? no. play to win.

Also, mlb has now incentivized teams to bring guys up earlier. They need to make it even more significant, but if a guy wins rookie of the year and he started the year on the big league roster, you get a first round pick. Mariners got the 29th overall pick next year for doing that with Rodriguez. I hate the way the mlb incentive structure is set up. There should be 0 incentives for keeping your more talented players in the minors for longer. How they go about doing that, im not sure, but it's terrible for the game to be incentivized to keep prospects in the minors longer.

I've seen lou mention it a few times, but playing service time games with sixto sanchez of all people would be beyond stupid.

You can't argue the Marlins need to be smart and efficient with every move and then argue against effective service time clocks. The Kris Bryant line is all I'm talking about here - they didn't do that with Fernandez. We're on the same page here. If you recall, before 2022, I wanted Meyer and Cabrera up as relievers to go on the Johan Santana plan to maximize their innings. I'm all about calling them up but let's be smart about it. I think they waited too long with Meyer. He should have been up in the pen mid-April.

Also they did tweak the service time rules in CBA where top top performers are granted full seasons even if the service time doesn't add up. Aldy got 1 year of control for being in ROY voting. This does solve the Julio/Aldy problem for those guys that explode like Kris Bryant. So MLB/MLBPA *is* trying here and the bar is being moved. Effectively, if they call up Eury and he gets 2nd in ROY voting with a blissful 100 innings of hellfire June-September, he'll get his full year - https://twitter.com/danconnolly2016/...zUfFS68TKaXRyA

But that still doesn't mean you don't call up Eury opening day. You wait till mid April, or, mid June or later. That's all here.

And to note, if Sixto takes a few months to get back into shape, there is a very real question of what is better value - 10-20 IP this summer in July or a year of service time by calling him up in August. He's still 24. He's still a longterm asset so we'll see what happens. How they treated Garrett/Cabrera, my money is on they take the service time assuming they don't in fact really need him as a contender.

[Nick]

If they kept Fernandez down 2 weeks they got a year of service time. My issue is that. Jose could have started 26 games his rookie year instead and they'd have another full year of control. It was malpractice. So let's never do that again.

Eury is a fair comp here as Fernandez just came up for A+ as the prodigy. If Eury is deemed ready now and fuck all this noise, he is named the 5th SP and Cabrera/Garrett are both pushed to 120 IP and all three of them share that rotation spot effectively,, just wait 2 weeks into the year and you get a full year of service time. I mean, the bar is low here.

They do get it in the FO though. Cabrera and Garrett having .168 days of service time is awesome. That's how you do it.

My issue is your take on Fulton, that we should definitely not see him before April 2024. Most likely this is is a non-issue. He's the 9th-10th SP in line, going to start in AA, the chances of him coming up are not great, but he had 21 outstanding innings in AA last year. Say he dominates AA again in April this year, he forces his way up to AAA, say he dominates 2-3 months of AAA, you're going to tell me this guy is off limits to use at the big league level in August-September? That's what I don't agree with.

[Lee Stone]

Here's an interview with Jake Eder from today. I've made repeated requests for such an interview in recent weeks and Fishstripes came through. Unfortunately, they missed my biggest questions, which dealt with core and leg development during the long layoff.

Marlins’ Jake Eder “fired up” to pitch again after long absence - Fish Stripes

[fish16]

I know the discussion has died down, but the more i think about it, the more the move for Guerriel makes sense to fix the issue we were discussing against lefties in LF. It's an out of the box solution, but their thought process could have been Soler in LF against lefties, and then guerriel and cooper at 1b and DH. All 3 of those guys hit lefties really well. For his career, Guerriel is an .807 OPS with 92 k's and 72 walks in 919 plate appearances. His slugging is also a decent bit higher against lefties than righties. Soler also is an .826 OPS against lefties. And cooper's OPS is exactly the same for his career against righties and lefties.

So vs lefties you could have had:

C- fortes
1b- Cooper/Guerriel
2b- Arraez
SS- Berti
3b- Segura
LF- Soler
CF- Jazz
RF- Garcia
DH- Cooper/Guerriel
Off the bench you'd have- Wendle, DLC, Sanchez, Stallings

vs righties you could have had

C- Fortes
1b- Cooper
2b- Arraez
SS- Wendle
3b- Segura
LF- Sanchez/DLc
CF- Jazz
RF- Garcia
DH- Soler
Off the bench you'd have- Guerriel, DLC/Sanchez, Berti, and Stallings.

I think that was the thought process there and honestly i like it. I still like Guerriel as a buy low guy for cheap and hope for a bounceback.

[lou]

My issue is your take on Fulton, that we should definitely not see him before April 2024. Most likely this is is a non-issue. He's the 9th-10th SP in line, going to start in AA, the chances of him coming up are not great, but he had 21 outstanding innings in AA last year. Say he dominates AA again in April this year, he forces his way up to AAA, say he dominates 2-3 months of AAA, you're going to tell me this guy is off limits to use at the big league level in August-September? That's what I don't agree with.

I think the bold depends on what else they have, so sure I agree here. If he's a difference maker, you throw the service time book out and call him up. But practically speaking, I think it's extremely probable Fulton isn't on the 40 man until June 2024, or at earliest late April 2024 if he just is the natural. I just don't see him being that much better than whoever the 10th-13th pitchers are in the organization, but I would welcome being wrong here.

[lou]

I know the discussion has died down, but the more i think about it, the more the move for Guerriel makes sense to fix the issue we were discussing against lefties in LF. It's an out of the box solution, but their thought process could have been Soler in LF against lefties, and then guerriel and cooper at 1b and DH. All 3 of those guys hit lefties really well. For his career, Guerriel is an .807 OPS with 92 k's and 72 walks in 919 plate appearances. His slugging is also a decent bit higher against lefties than righties. Soler also is an .826 OPS against lefties. And cooper's OPS is exactly the same for his career against righties and lefties.

So vs lefties you could have had:

C- fortes
1b- Cooper/Guerriel
2b- Arraez
SS- Berti
3b- Segura
LF- Soler
CF- Jazz
RF- Garcia
DH- Cooper/Guerriel
Off the bench you'd have- Wendle, DLC, Sanchez, Stallings

vs righties you could have had

C- Fortes
1b- Cooper
2b- Arraez
SS- Wendle
3b- Segura
LF- Sanchez/DLc
CF- Jazz
RF- Garcia
DH- Soler
Off the bench you'd have- Guerriel, DLC/Sanchez, Berti, and Stallings.

I think that was the thought process there and honestly i like it. I still like Guerriel as a buy low guy for cheap and hope for a bounceback.

He's 39. He's done.

If they don't go the longterm SS/CF route (i.e. opposite Jazz), just sign Profar here.

C - Fortes (90) / Stallings (72)
1B - Cooper (110) / Profar (52)
2B - Arraez (142) / Berti (20)
SS - Wendle (112) / Segura (50)
3B - Segura (82) / Berti (80)
LF - Profar (62) / DLC (50) / Sanchez (50)
CF - Jazz (140) / DLC (22)
RF - Garcia (132) / DLC (30)
DH - Soler (140) / Sanchez (22)

Totals Starts
Arraez - 142
Soler - 140
Jazz - 140
Segura - 132
Garcia - 132 (and if he sucks DLC/Sanchez/Berti can peel games here)
Profar - 114
Wendle - 112
Cooper - 110 (Everyone can peel games here shifting Arraez/Profar to 1B more permanently)
DLC - 102 (Profar/Sanchez/Berti can peel games here)
Berti - 100
Fortes - 90
Stallings - 72
Sanchez - 72 (Garcia/Profar/DLC/Berti can peel games here if he sucks)

That makes a lot of sense to me even if the backup 1B situation is strange.


Andrus is still better as it's building real SS depth/redundancy for a guy you can play against lefties which is needed (what are they going to do if Wendle gets hurt? The answer isn't Segura or Berti. This is a lot of confidence in Amaya TBH), but Profar works for another cheap option.

[fish16]

He's 39. He's done.

If they don't go the longterm SS/CF route (i.e. opposite Jazz), just sign Profar here.

C - Fortes (90) / Stallings (72)
1B - Cooper (110) / Profar (52)
2B - Arraez (142) / Berti (20)
SS - Wendle (112) / Segura (50)
3B - Segura (82) / Berti (80)
LF - Profar (62) / DLC (50) / Sanchez (50)
CF - Jazz (140) / DLC (22)
RF - Garcia (132) / DLC (30)
DH - Soler (140) / Sanchez (22)

Totals Starts
Arraez - 142
Soler - 140
Jazz - 140
Segura - 132
Garcia - 132 (and if he sucks DLC/Sanchez/Berti can peel games here)
Profar - 114
Wendle - 112
Cooper - 110 (Everyone can peel games here shifting Arraez/Profar to 1B more permanently)
DLC - 102 (Profar/Sanchez/Berti can peel games here)
Berti - 100
Fortes - 90
Stallings - 72
Sanchez - 72 (Garcia/Profar/DLC/Berti can peel games here if he sucks)

That makes a lot of sense to me even if the backup 1B situation is strange.


Andrus is still better as it's building real SS depth/redundancy for a guy you can play against lefties which is needed (what are they going to do if Wendle gets hurt? The answer isn't Segura or Berti. This is a lot of confidence in Amaya TBH), but Profar works for another cheap option.

You could have said the same thing when he had a terrible 2020 at 35. Then 2021 happened. He's a year removed from winning the batting title with an .846 OPS and 131 OPS+ at age 37. He also was amazing in the playoffs for the astros. Hit .347 with an .850 OPS with just 1 k in 49 ab's. It's entirely possible he's done, or he just had a bad year. He is probably somewhere in the middle of his last 2 years, which would be an upgrade against lefties for us.