2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[Lee Stone]

Wonder what De La Cruz was worrying about all winter in the Dominican League. He didn't hit for shit.

[rmc523]

wow, now rhys hoskins looks like he just hurt his knee badly as well. Phillies can be without Hoskins and Harper for most of the year now. Mets without Diaz and nimmo is week to week.

Yet another reason we should've signed a big SS. Just because the other teams do a ton of moves, doesn't mean we won't have a chance and that their moves will all work out/they'll be healthy.

[Nick]

Wonder what De La Cruz was worrying about all winter in the Dominican League. He didn't hit for shit.

This is kinda worrying, I hadn't seen his winter league stats. Probably more ABs in Winter League than the amount of ABs people were using to justify him as a breakout candidate.

[fish16]

Yet another reason we should've signed a big SS. Just because the other teams do a ton of moves, doesn't mean we won't have a chance and that their moves will all work out/they'll be healthy.

Yup, or made the trade for Reynolds. they need a SS, but any major power bat for the middle of the lineup would do numbers. The lineup will certainly be better this year as long as we dont have another season of apocalyptic injuries and down years from veterans, but like i said yesterday, the ceiling is an average hitting team. A reynolds or even better a correa would have gone such a long way towards making this team have a viable path towards a playoff spot. Now it's going to take not only the pitching staying healthy, but overperformances from way too many guys to really be feasible. The only realistic path to being a legitimate playoff team is getting good hitting performances in the first half plus the pitching being as good as it was last year, then the team adds a big piece at the deadline. which is so stupid because instead of giving up pieces we have for an upgrade, all sherman had to do was be a real owner and sign a legit bat. Arraez and segura are really good, solid additions, but it doesnt move the needle close to enough.

[fish16]

This is kinda worrying, I hadn't seen his winter league stats. Probably more ABs in Winter League than the amount of ABs people were using to justify him as a breakout candidate.

sanchez is going to be the breakout guy. DLC will be the 4th OF he has always been. Guys dont just make a swing tweak and become above average regular players. Sanchez in my opinion will be joc pederson light. Struggles against lefties, but has plus plus power against righties. the big thing with Sanchez will be whether he can be just good enough against lefties to justify him playing every day or if he will be a long term platoon only. Both are useful pieces, especially with the lefty mashing burdick in the system, but one is obviously a lot more valuable than the other.

[lou]

sanchez is going to be the breakout guy. DLC will be the 4th OF he has always been. Guys dont just make a swing tweak and become above average regular players. Sanchez in my opinion will be joc pederson light. Struggles against lefties, but has plus plus power against righties. the big thing with Sanchez will be whether he can be just good enough against lefties to justify him playing every day or if he will be a long term platoon only. Both are useful pieces, especially with the lefty mashing burdick in the system, but one is obviously a lot more valuable than the other.

LOL. This video is the level of wrong you are here, and yes he is the shining example of what a swing tweak and launch angle change can do quickly - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-UdsVO7HaJg

I thought Lee picking Nasim Nunez to make the team in May was going to be the bad take of the day, but we have a two horse race

[Nick]

LOL. This video is the level of wrong you are here, and yes he is the shining example of what a swing tweak and launch angle change can do quickly - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-UdsVO7HaJg

I thought Lee picking Nasim Nunez to make the team in May was going to be the bad take of the day, but we have a two horse race

Ok, but how many Jose Bautista's have there been in the 150 year history of the MLB?

[lou]

latest mish and barry jackson story just came out. Cueto threw yesterday and was fine and will throw again tomorrow. Sanchez and DLC will both make the team. Final roster spot will come down to iglesias and gurriel, who both have gotten off to slow spring starts. both of those guys can also opt out after saturday if they have another opportunity elsewhere. they think DLC was the unluckiest player in baseball last year. Marlins obviously havent spoken to cooper about an extension after this year yet. DLC said he wasnt focusing or either thinking too much about his ab's in the field and his fielding while he was hitting. Said rojas helped him to slow down and just focus on what he's doing at the moment.

Three horse race. I stand corrected.


He was unlucky, but unluckiest is holy shit wrong. He had an overall .304 BABIP and still whiffed a bunch. Corey Seager had a .242 BABIP and did this red assault - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb. Corey Seager is profoundly unluckier. God why can't we have nice things.

[lou]

Ok, but how many Jose Bautista's have there been in the 150 year history of the MLB?

JD Martinez, Dan Murphy. Off the top of my head I think Donaldson is one of them too. I mean there are a few per year, but yes those are the top top examples. Saying, as an absolute - Guys dont just make a swing tweak and become above average regular players - is just what? Some become maniacs like Bautista and JD.

It happens literally every year as guys work on their swings. All of these guys are trying to find a way to drive and lift. Maybe DLC can't do it, but the underlying data says he is better than he showed so that's something to have some hope with. But he wasn't the unluckiest player in baseball. That's silly.

[rmc523]

Yup, or made the trade for Reynolds. they need a SS, but any major power bat for the middle of the lineup would do numbers. The lineup will certainly be better this year as long as we dont have another season of apocalyptic injuries and down years from veterans, but like i said yesterday, the ceiling is an average hitting team. A reynolds or even better a correa would have gone such a long way towards making this team have a viable path towards a playoff spot. Now it's going to take not only the pitching staying healthy, but overperformances from way too many guys to really be feasible. The only realistic path to being a legitimate playoff team is getting good hitting performances in the first half plus the pitching being as good as it was last year, then the team adds a big piece at the deadline. which is so stupid because instead of giving up pieces we have for an upgrade, all sherman had to do was be a real owner and sign a legit bat. Arraez and segura are really good, solid additions, but it doesnt move the needle close to enough.

Yeah, it's always an "everything must go right" scenario for us to have a chance.....and if never goes right.

[fish16]

JD Martinez, Dan Murphy. Off the top of my head I think Donaldson is one of them too. I mean there are a few per year, but yes those are the top top examples. Saying, as an absolute - Guys dont just make a swing tweak and become above average regular players - is just what? Some become maniacs like Bautista and JD.

It happens literally every year as guys work on their swings. All of these guys are trying to find a way to drive and lift. Maybe DLC can't do it, but the underlying data says he is better than he showed so that's something to have some hope with. But he wasn't the unluckiest player in baseball. That's silly.

Daniel Murphy had an OPS above .800 2 of his first 3 years in the big leagues. Josh donaldson's first full year in the big leagues he had an .888 OPS and he was a first round pick with a career OPS in the minors of .838. JD Martinez mashed for 3 full minor league seasons to start his career. I shouldnt have been absolute. but DLC isnt becoming an above average major league starter off of a swing change. Maybe he's a useful 4th OF. What you're doing is the equivalent of guys freaking out over "X player showed up to camp in the best shape of his career." He was flat out terrible last year for all but 2 weeks. He's probably not that bad, but he's also not what he was in september. he's a career .743 OPS guy in the minors for his career. He had 6 different seasons of under .768 OPS in the minors then had a breakout with the Astros AAA team and we acquired him. He proceeded to be terrible for 5 full months last year and made a swing change. when someone proves to you who they are, believe them. the guy didnt go from being a thoroughly mediocre minor league player for years and then become an above average major leaguer with a swing change.

[lou]

Daniel Murphy had an OPS above .800 2 of his first 3 years in the big leagues. Josh donaldson's first full year in the big leagues he had an .888 OPS and he was a first round pick with a career OPS in the minors of .838. JD Martinez mashed for 3 full minor league seasons to start his career. I shouldnt have been absolute. but DLC isnt becoming an above average major league starter off of a swing change. Maybe he's a useful 4th OF. What you're doing is the equivalent of guys freaking out over "X player showed up to camp in the best shape of his career." He was flat out terrible last year for all but 2 weeks. He's probably not that bad, but he's also not what he was in september. he's a career .743 OPS guy in the minors for his career. He had 6 different seasons of under .768 OPS in the minors then had a breakout with the Astros AAA team and we acquired him. He proceeded to be terrible for 5 full months last year and made a swing change. when someone proves to you who they are, believe them. the guy didnt go from being a thoroughly mediocre minor league player for years and then become an above average major leaguer with a swing change.

You mean the Marlins who think he's the unluckiest guy in the sport apparently and the entire analytical community who loves the guy from the bleeding red statcast? You're also missing the point with those guys, Donaldson WAS that swing change and that's what happened. I thought of another one - the Brett Baty hit explosion last year and why he has moved well up the prospect rungs.

Yes let's avoid some absolutes. No one (except maybe the Marlins?) is saying the guy is going to drop a 4+ WAR season and go mini-JD Martinez, but I think it's fair to think DLC (and Sanchez) do have 2.5+ WAR upside and could surprise and outreach their career rates (which are effectively like 1.6 WAR players). You know, have a slash like 2019/2021 Avisail Garcia sort of thing. The underlying data suggests they can do that, so I say, that's worth finding out which is all I care about. Let's find out. They have earned the long shot. Maybe the suck, who knows.

[fish16]

Torn acl for Hoskins. He’s probably out for the year id assume

[lou]

Torn acl for Hoskins. He’s probably out for the year id assume

Sounds like the Marlins 1 year reclamation "show me" contract next year.

Hoskins..... Meyer/Sixto, Bender/Villalobos, and Eder/Simpson = Cooper, Barnes, Floro, and Scott/Okert in payroll effectively!

[fish16]

You mean the Marlins who think he's the unluckiest guy in the sport apparently and the entire analytical community who loves the guy from the bleeding red statcast? You're also missing the point with those guys, Donaldson WAS that swing change and that's what happened. I thought of another one - the Brett Baty hit explosion last year and why he has moved well up the prospect rungs.

Yes let's avoid some absolutes. No one (except maybe the Marlins?) is saying the guy is going to drop a 4+ WAR season and go mini-JD Martinez, but I think it's fair to think DLC (and Sanchez) do have 2.5+ WAR upside and could surprise and outreach their career rates (which are effectively like 1.6 WAR players). You know, have a slash like 2019/2021 Avisail Garcia sort of thing. The underlying data suggests they can do that, so I say, that's worth finding out which is all I care about. Let's find out. They have earned the long shot. Maybe the suck, who knows.

It's really not worth talking about anymore, we are less than a week to opening day, we will find out soon enough. All im saying is that every single guy you mentioned was either a very high draft pick or absolutely mashed in the minors. DLC was not a highly touted prospect and had literally 6 years of mediocre to decent minor league numbers. guys like that very rarely become impactful major leaguers. i hope he does though, im not rooting against the guy, i just dont think he is anything to write home about.

You talk about his numbers on baseball savant, and really all they say is that he hits the ball hard and as a result his expected numbers should be higher. But you dont talk about the fact that he k's a ton and doesnt walk and chases a ton of pitches, and that's the reason his numbers are mediocre and why he was terrible for all but 2 weeks last year. He might just be a guy who hits the ball hard when he makes contact and has good raw power and no plate discipline. Which is not a terrible guy to have around, but i think when they talk about his peripherals the marlins and you just ignore that he has horrendous plate discipline. It's literally just that when he makes contact he hits the ball hard. That's really about it.