2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[Nick]

Trading either would be pointless at this point. You're not going to get something that helps your team right now.

[fish16]

For their careers DLC has a line of .278/.319/.457 v RHP while Sanchez has a .229/.307/.453.

You could say that is BABIP related(.337 for DLC v .266 for Sanchez), but I don't think you can say either is more or less likely to sustain their production against RHP or get better. Not a big difference in sample either, with 41 AB more for Sanchez.

Neither should be long term plans, but I think Sanchez would get a better return here and now(might finagle two solid young BP arms for him).

i'd love to see what DLC's line against righties was before a single meaningless hot streak from September 23rd on last year. Using fangraphs split tool, prior to 9/23 last year, he had a WRC+ of 80 last year in 285 ab's. That's not a small sample. For the year, he then improved that to an overall WRC+ of 104 for last year. That's not realistic to think that the 285 ab's prior weren't him but the 60 after that are what he is. He got on a hot streak, that's awesome. that's not what he is. As a 4th OF, i dont hate him, but Sanchez is absolutely the guy you keep of those 2.

Edit- i actually used the splits tool to figure out what he was against righties prior to that streak. It doesnt tell you overall numbers, but in 2021, overall he had a 99 WRC+ against righties, and in 2022, prior to that hot streak starting on 9/23, he had a WRC+ of 92, OPS of .686, OBP of .276, .234 Average in 205 ab's.

[fish16]

Trading either would be pointless at this point. You're not going to get something that helps your team right now.

if they are similar players and you cant platoon either, if you can get a quality middle reliever or potential set up guy for DLC, id do it in a heart beat. Not enough roster spots for all of them.

[Todd]

What is the likely opening day Bullpen? I am assuming this.

RHP:
Barnes
Bender
Chargois
Enright
Floro
Nance

LHP:
Okert
Scott

That is kind of fugly.

[fish16]

What is the likely opening day Bullpen? I am assuming this.

RHP:
Barnes
Bender
Chargois
Enright
Floro
Nance

LHP:
Okert
Scott

That is kind of fugly.

Bender is out for the year with TJ surgery i believe.

Barnes, Floro, Enright, Chargois, Okert, Scott seem like locks. I doubt nance makes it. Castano could be a long reliever. Brazoban is on the 40 man. And then they seem to like the young guys we know nothing about that are also on the 40 man like Reynolds, Nardi, Simpson, Soriano, and Villalobos. Sixto could be a high ceiling addition to that mix potentially. theres always a few open spots for the last few guys in Spring, and theres always additions towards the end of spring for guys that come available due to a lack of room in the pen on other teams like scott and sulser were last year.

But speaking of Sixto, as great as it is to see him throwing and in shape, every video i see of him throwing is just like last year where it looks half effort. I dont think we will know anything about him until a few weeks into spring, which isnt far off, but still he is an enormous question mark.

Soriano has always had decent numbers and he's only 23, but he walks too many guys. Sean Reynolds is a former hitter who struck out a ridiculous amount of times and then became a pitcher. He's super raw. Decent numbers last year and i think he is supposed to throw really hard. Simpson struck out 112 hitters in just 68 innings.

[fish16]

going into spring it will also be interesting to see what they do with the rotation if no one gets hurt by opening day. Would seem to be 6 guys plus sixto for 5 spots. Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Cueto, Rogers, Garrett, and then unlikely Sixto.

Feels like all 6 of those guys deserve a spot. I also dont think Garrett plays well out of the bullpen. But if you put rogers in there, his value goes way down.

[lou]

What is the likely opening day Bullpen? I am assuming this.

RHP:
Barnes
Bender
Chargois
Enright
Floro
Nance

LHP:
Okert
Scott

That is kind of fugly.

Bender is out as fish16 said.

Barnes, Floro, Chargois, Enright, Nance
Garrett, Scott, Okert

If I'm wrong, it's because Garret is the 5, they move Cabrera to the bullpen, and maybe they pick Simpson/Nardi over Nance as everyone has options.


This is a pretty solid group. I don't think this is fugly at all, but yes this depth chart is screaming a Nance upgrade (even though his peripherals are good). coughReyescough

[lou]

going into spring it will also be interesting to see what they do with the rotation if no one gets hurt by opening day. Would seem to be 6 guys plus sixto for 5 spots. Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Cueto, Rogers, Garrett, and then unlikely Sixto.

Feels like all 6 of those guys deserve a spot. I also dont think Garrett plays well out of the bullpen. But if you put rogers in there, his value goes way down.

Garret's pitch mix is short bursts/max effort. He would excel in the bullpen Rogers (and Cabrera) as changeup dependent arms are going to throw more innings if they work out. Rogers isn't moving out of the rotation absent some real bombs in April. Cabrera would be health dependent.

Sixto was granted a 4th year option. He's a Jumbo Shrimp for sure.

[lou]

Trading either would be pointless at this point. You're not going to get something that helps your team right now.

I think an analytical/cheap team would buy DLC's statcast within reason and bet on the new swing. I think he has some real value. I don't think Sanchez does. He's too volatile right now.

Frankly I'd keep them as said unless there is a Reynolds miracle, and a SS makes more sense anyways.

[Todd]

I dont know why they don't try a 6 man rotation. The Angels and Astros have made it an art form.

Would protect the young arms especially Cabrera as well as Cueto who pitched above his peripherals last season(not a particularly big fan of the Cueto signing).

[fish16]

I dont know why they don't try a 6 man rotation. The Angels and Astros have made it an art form.

Would protect the young arms especially Cabrera as well as Cueto who pitched above his peripherals last season(not a particularly big fan of the Cueto signing).

The astros havent had a 6 man rotation. Last year they had a 5 man rotation and were remarkably healthy and consistent. They only had 8 people start a game all year, their top 5 guys pitched 31, 28, 28, 28, and 25 games apiece. They had McCullers come back and start 8 games, Odorizzi started 12 before he got traded, and some other guy started 2 games. Having 6 guys start takes away a few starts a year from Sandy. They should make a decision on the 5 they want, and then inevitably the 6th guy will get starts when someone gets hurt.

Also, nothing the angels do can be considered an art form.

Realistically, the decision will get made for them when someone gets hurt in spring. Very rarely does a team have 6 starters like this at all, and even more rare do they all stay healthy long enough for a 6 man rotation to work.

[Nick]

I dont know why they don't try a 6 man rotation. The Angels and Astros have made it an art form.

Would protect the young arms especially Cabrera as well as Cueto who pitched above his peripherals last season(not a particularly big fan of the Cueto signing).

Several of us are in favor of stacking starters. Keep the 5-man rotation so you don't limit the number of Sandy starts. Go Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera/Rogers, Cueto, Garrett/Sixto (if healthy of course) Carry 13 pitchers, 7 starters 6 relievers. The 6 relievers basically get the day off every 2 out of 5 games unless there's an emergency. I think it could work.

[fish16]

Garret's pitch mix is short bursts/max effort. He would excel in the bullpen Rogers (and Cabrera) as changeup dependent arms are going to throw more innings if they work out. Rogers isn't moving out of the rotation absent some real bombs in April. Cabrera would be health dependent.

Sixto was granted a 4th year option. He's a Jumbo Shrimp for sure.

Garrett's velocity went up 1 mph last year, but he still only had an average fastball velocity of 91.5. Out of the bullpen, idk how effective that would be. I wouldnt mind seeing him available as a multi inning guy to stack with say Cabrera every 5th day and give the bullpen a rest that day every 5th day as a way to keep Cabrera healthy and limit his innings.

As for sixto, it would be idiotic to play service time games with him. He's missed 2 full years and there is no indication that he will even still be on a roster in 5-6 years let alone having to worry about service time manipulation with him. He would easily be the best arm out of our bullpen if he is healthy. If he is healthy, he's working his way back in the bullpen and eventually the closer a month or 2 into the year. but again, given the videos of him throwing this spring, i highly doubt he's ready by opening day or possibly at all ever again. IT would be nice, but the bullpens look exactly like they did last year before it was announced he's hurt again. It's all half effort. It's nice that he's in shape, and it would be amazing if he can come back and produce, but at this point no one should be anything but skeptical about that ever happening.

[fish16]

Several of us are in favor of stacking starters. Keep the 5-man rotation so you don't limit the number of Sandy starts. Go Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera/Rogers, Cueto, Garrett/Sixto (if healthy of course) Carry 13 pitchers, 7 starters 6 relievers. The 6 relievers basically get the day off every 2 out of 5 games unless there's an emergency. I think it could work.

this is what i would love. I wish they would get creative like that, but they have shown no indication or inclination that they will do that. but spring also hasnt started yet so who knows. Schumaker seems like a smart guy, so maybe he is capable of getting creative like that in ways that Don Mattingly never was. I think the guys you stack are Cabrera and Garrett, and then maybe rogers and sixto, if sixto is ever healthy. Rightly lefty thing so teams cant stack their lineup with righties or lefties against either one.

[lou]

I dont know why they don't try a 6 man rotation. The Angels and Astros have made it an art form.

Would protect the young arms especially Cabrera as well as Cueto who pitched above his peripherals last season(not a particularly big fan of the Cueto signing).

THEY SHOULD. I've been saying this for months!

In fact, they should take it further and sign Wacha and go a 7 man rotation, but over a normal 5 day schedule. Be very progressive and aim to have something like this:

Sandy (220 IP) (average just under 7 IP)
Luzardo (150 IP) (average 4.2+ IP)
Cueto (140 IP)/Rogers(140 IP) (average 8.2 IP)
Garrett(140 IP)/Cabrera(125 IP) (average 8.1 IP)
Wacha (150+ IP) (average 4.2+ IP)
=1080 IP

This leaves roughly 360 IP for these guys:

Barnes (65), Floro (65), Chargois (60), Enright (55)
Scott (65), Okert (65)


You are talking an extremely fresh bullpen here. I am imagining a world Cueto/Rogers/Garrett/Cabrera are all pulled roughly before third time of the lineup so there are many games they are throwing the entire game and Rogers/Cabrera are each getting saves throwing back 4+ innings if Cueto/Garret cruise through 4+. You're also messing with other teams doing a hard R/L swap to mess with their splits and have to unload their bench potentially. And big picture, Rogers/Garrett/Cabrera shouldn't be throwing more innings than that anyways which is really important here (emphasis so I don't get yelled at but these guys aren't throwing 160-170 IP) as well as we probably don't want Cueto throwing that much either and he should be routinely pulled third time through the order. Wacha is a fine 5th SP to average around 5 innings a start and he'd have the whole bullpen to help him after back to back days of not many relievers being needed. You probably do an opener with Wacha always to shield him once from the top of the order. Luzardo too would get the benefit of the entire pen helping out knowing Sandy likely ate 7+ the day before so everyone is fresh and the pitchers after him are going to combine to throw 7-8+ IP back to back days more than likely so they can really really unload the pen. You probably do an opener with Luzardo on days they stack right handers at the top of the order but he has a longer leash for obvious upside reasons.

And then the injury benefit, if anyone gets hurt, you have MLB guys stretched out and can just give Cueto/Rogers their own day and reorganize from there. And further injury benefit, you're not going to throw Eury/Eder/maybe Sixto more than 3-4 innings at a time at the MLB level come July, so assuming they become ready, they could all slot in so one of these roles if there are injuries.


Longterm, just swap out Wacha and Cueto in 2024 and add Eury and Eder and you can reorganize who gets primary SP days versus being in the double SP stack. They could easily do say Sandy, Luzardo, Garrett/Eury, Cabrera/Eder, Rogers next year and be throwing their top 7 pitchers over 1,000 innings on paper. And I'm ignoring Meyer here who may also be a 120 IP guy, as well as Sixto, so Luzardo and Rogers may also get friends and completely stack the team with multi-inning pitchers and at this point, your bullpen could effectively be a closer, a lefty specialist, a normal middle reliever, and mop up guy. Innings galore here.

Anyways, this makes sense to me given that no matter what they do they cannot become a top 10 offense (unless they can get Reynolds and Rosario and not hurt the team, by all means), so just triple down on the pitching and try to flip that one run record throwing better innings all the time.