2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

I'm with you totally here.

But for the bold - DLC had a mid season swing change in the minors. It's a potentially big development. It was BABIP infused post split for sure, but DLC is not the same player as pre-all star break 2022. He's a huge unknown, but the peripherals are off the charts. I don't think the organization is wrong to publicly say they expect 500 PA this year or to be high on him. He's very interesting going from one of the worst players in baseball they had to play just because everyone was hurt to a reasonable breakout candidate with this new hitting profile. I would take the bet DLC/Sanchez/Bleday don't embarrass themselves as the collective LF/4th OF, even if there is not an above average guy emerging here.

Also is there where we point out DLC and Sanchez are both better on paper than their picks/IFA signings - VVM, Scott, Misner, Bleday, Burdick, and Jerar

To me, if we cant get reynolds, it's not ideal, but i would really love to see a pure platoon of Jesus Sanchez and DLC, with Bleday starting in AAA and getting every day ab's for a few months until an injury. So far in DLC's first 2 years, he has an OPS of .776 against lefties, Sanchez has an OPS of .760 against righties. With some expected growth in both of their games as they mature and get more experience, if we have a manger smart enough to do a pure platoon between the 2 of them, you can manufacture somewhere between .750-.800 OPS out of the LF position, which would be a big bonus. And with them as the platoon in LF, keep Bleday in AAA and let him mash for a few months hopefully and combine the good plate discipline he has with the power potential he has shown every once in a while. that would be the ideal way all 3 of their seasons play out. Berti can play backup CF, and you also have Soler and Cooper who can theoretically play corner OF in a bind as well. That's enough OF depth, and it will allow for Bleday and Burdick as well to develop more for a few months.

[rmc523]

To me, if we cant get reynolds, it's not ideal, but i would really love to see a pure platoon of Jesus Sanchez and DLC, with Bleday starting in AAA and getting every day ab's for a few months until an injury. So far in DLC's first 2 years, he has an OPS of .776 against lefties, Sanchez has an OPS of .760 against righties. With some expected growth in both of their games as they mature and get more experience, if we have a manger smart enough to do a pure platoon between the 2 of them, you can manufacture somewhere between .750-.800 OPS out of the LF position, which would be a big bonus. And with them as the platoon in LF, keep Bleday in AAA and let him mash for a few months hopefully and combine the good plate discipline he has with the power potential he has shown every once in a while. that would be the ideal way all 3 of their seasons play out. Berti can play backup CF, and you also have Soler and Cooper who can theoretically play corner OF in a bind as well. That's enough OF depth, and it will allow for Bleday and Burdick as well to develop more for a few months.

I'd be ok with that as opposed to trying to shoehorn some not-that-great guy that's left on the market.

If you can get Reynolds, do it. But otherwise, eh.....other FA options have dried up.

[fish16]

I'd be ok with that as opposed to trying to shoehorn some not-that-great guy that's left on the market.

If you can get Reynolds, do it. But otherwise, eh.....other FA options have dried up.

exactly. the best option is profar, and while i have always liked him dating back to his days as the number 1 prospect in baseball in the rangers system at a stupid young age, he is not the prototypical power bat we could really use now. I love what we've done adding on base/contact guys like Segura and Arraez, if we are going to make an addition either as a big upgrade at SS over Wendle or add a LF, i would think it would need to be a guy who can drive in some runs and hit a lot of extra base hits. Profar is not that kind of guy. Doesnt mean he's a bad player, but he just isnt the fit we need especially at the price he would command, even if he would technically be an upgrade over what we have.

Sanchez and DLC have their faults, but if used correctly, the combo of them can be a real plus offensively with power, which is what we really need at this point. The lack of platooning is what drove me nuts with Mattingly. Like ive said for a few years, he's a great bench coach and even a decent enough manager to put as the face of a rebuilding team, but when it came to in game and lineup management, he was absolutely clueless. Schumaker is a more modern manager and he's been around the cardinals for long enough to hopefully know how to create a whole that is greater than the sum of its parts. As a small market team, it's absolutely critical to be able to do that, and for years, we've been abysmal at doing that.

If used correctly, i dont think it is out of the realm of possibility for a DLC/Sanchez platoon to put up a .250 average, .750-.800 OPS, 25+ hr's, and mediocre defense. That is all you can really ask for from them. It's about putting your players in positions to succeed. Just because guys have talent, doesnt mean that talent will overcome being put in bad positions. And that's what im hoping the addition of Schumaker at the helm will help with this year.

[fish16]

also, given how bad wendle has been against lefties, i wonder if another platoon of him and berti makes sense. Berti isnt exactly a lefty masher himself, and he's actually a bit better against righties for his career, but that wouldnt be a bad platoon either. Looking at the splits, for his career, Berti hits for better average and higher OBP against righties, but slugs more against lefties. Last year he was better against lefties in terms of OPS, but lower OBP. Very limited sample though. Just 82 ab's vs lefties last year.

Vs lefties, Berti at SS, DLC in LF
Vs righties, Wendle at SS, Sanchez in LF

[fish16]

the more i look at it, the more i think Jesus Sanchez can have a small breakout this year if used correctly. Even in a terrible year for him last year, he dropped his k rate from 31.1 to 26.8 last year. His BB rate remained steady. His BABIP went from .316 to a terrible .258. Even despite the bad year overall, he still had a .759 OPS against righties with 13 homers, 13 2b's, and and 3 3b's. His OBP still wasnt great against righties, but it was at .306, and his K% against righties was only 23.6% against righties vs 43.6 against lefties, and his walk rate against righties was 9%. Over a full year against righties, thats close to 30 homers and decent enough plate discipline. Against righties, his WRC+ was 115. That's a super useful player if used correctly. Could become a poor mans joc pederson. Pederson's career WRC+ is 118, granted that includes lefties as well.

He also had a terrible year off the field, so maybe with some more maturity and some more developing at the plate he becomes a useful player. Other than soler, he has the most pure power of anyone on the team.

Plus, he seemed to fall victim to the extreme shift that was banned for this year quite a bit. He still hit the ball with medium exit velocity 55% of the time and hard hit 29.3. In 2021, it was medium hit 48.7% of the time and hard hit 38% of the time. It wont take too much change and honestly better luck for him to become an impact player. I could see a breakout for him.

[Todd]

To me, if we cant get reynolds, it's not ideal, but i would really love to see a pure platoon of Jesus Sanchez and DLC, with Bleday starting in AAA and getting every day ab's for a few months until an injury. So far in DLC's first 2 years, he has an OPS of .776 against lefties, Sanchez has an OPS of .760 against righties. With some expected growth in both of their games as they mature and get more experience, if we have a manger smart enough to do a pure platoon between the 2 of them, you can manufacture somewhere between .750-.800 OPS out of the LF position, which would be a big bonus. And with them as the platoon in LF, keep Bleday in AAA and let him mash for a few months hopefully and combine the good plate discipline he has with the power potential he has shown every once in a while. that would be the ideal way all 3 of their seasons play out. Berti can play backup CF, and you also have Soler and Cooper who can theoretically play corner OF in a bind as well. That's enough OF depth, and it will allow for Bleday and Burdick as well to develop more for a few months.

De La Cruz has an OPS of .776 against RHP. It's over 100 points lower(.666) against LHP for his career. It was even lower against LHP last season(.506).

DLC is horrid against LHP.

[fish16]

De La Cruz has an OPS of .776 against RHP. It's over 100 points lower(.666) against LHP for his career. It was even lower against LHP last season(.506).

DLC is horrid against LHP.

Oh wow i didnt even realize that. In that case they need to get creative. I think Sanchez should play above him in LF against righties, and maybe some other days against righties DLC can play center with jazz at DH to try to keep him healthy. I also think its a super small sample size for DLC at the major league level. 136 ab's against lefties for his career, and just 87 last year. In the minors he was still better against righties, but not a trainwreck against lefties. But you're right he is better against righties overall.

They can get super creative if they are willing to move jazz around, but guys have positional versatility. Jazz can get the occasional off day or move to DH, DLC can play CF, Arraez can play 1b, 2b, or 3b, Segura can play 2b, SS, 3b. Point being is there is enough ab's to go around for both to get enough ab's at their point of strength. They will need to figure out what to do vs lefties though in LF then. I suppose Soler can play LF occasionally with a bench guy dh'ing occasionally.

So against righties

C- Fortes
1b- Cooper
2b- Arraez
SS- Wendle
3b- Segura
LF- Sanchez/DLC
CF- Jazz
RF- Garcia
DH- Soler

Against lefties

C- Fortes
1b- Cooper
2b- Arraez
SS- Berti
3b- Segura
LF- Soler or ?
CF- Jazz
RF- Garcia
DH- Soler or ?

Off the bench they could have several righty mashers in Wendle, DLC, and Sanchez, but it would really help if burdick made severe progress quicker, because he is the ideal platoon guy for either one of DLC/Sanchez. He had an .870 OPS against lefties in Jax last year, .867 the year prior in Pensacola at AA.

[lou]

exactly. the best option is profar

You can make it work with him, but the best free agent is Andrus (.827 OPS vs LHP last year, career .725, exquisite defense still). Profar matches Andrus LHP career rate for 2022, and dips for career. They need a guy who they can play against lefties still and Andrus fits this mold perfectly. Wendle does need some help and Segura/Berti are not ideal backup SS. I don't think we should count on Amaya just yet.

You can make a very dedicated LHP lineup taking out the 3 obvious guys if they were to get Andrus, and right handers are a mix and match whose hot

vs LHP
C - Fortes/Stallings
1B - Arraez
2B - Berti
SS - Andrus
3B - Segura
LF - Soler
CF - DLC
RF - Garcia
DH - Cooper
--
B - Fortes/Stallings
B - Sanchez
B - Jazz
B - Wendle


vs RHP
C - Fortes/Stallings
1B - Cooper/Arraez
2B - Arraez/Wendle/Berti
SS - Andrus/Wendle
3B - Segura/Wendle
LF - DLC/Sanchez
CF - Jazz
RF - Garcia/Sanchez
DH - Soler/Cooper/DLC
--
B - Fortes/Stallings
B - Mostly Berti, random Arraez/Soler off days
B - One of Cooper/DLC/Sanchez/Garcia (whoever needs off day)
B - One of Andrus/Wendle/Segura (mostly Andrus or Wendle here)



Obviously I do not love Arraez at 1B 50+ games, as well as Soler another 40-50 in LF and DLC another 30+ in CF, but the rest of the defense is potentially really good (assuming Jazz can in fact handle CF). I think they'd get above average defense here at 5 positions, then there is Jazz, then 1B will be who knows with Cooper, and effectively this Arraez/Soler/DLC out of position platoon may be good enough as Arraez is likely an asset with grounders to negate whatever is lost in LF/CF. Or at least playable.

It works. And this gets better with Rosario/Peraza for more longterm upside and a guy who would play 130+ game as Andrus is likely less. I'm telling you, absent a Reynolds or better level player anywhere to reshuffle with a stud, it's a shortstop.

[lou]

De La Cruz has an OPS of .776 against RHP. It's over 100 points lower(.666) against LHP for his career. It was even lower against LHP last season(.506).

DLC is horrid against LHP.

The organization will say SSS and not be deterred. I'm not saying you are wrong, but they'll go in thinking he is fine there and it's a fluke.

[fish16]

The organization will say SSS and not be deterred. I'm not saying you are wrong, but they'll go in thinking he is fine there and it's a fluke.

i dont think they would be wrong in that case. He might be better against righties, but i find it hard to believe he will be a complete train wreck against lefties.

[fish16]

You can make it work with him, but the best free agent is Andrus (.827 OPS vs LHP last year, career .725, exquisite defense still). Profar matches Andrus LHP career rate for 2022, and dips for career. They need a guy who they can play against lefties still and Andrus fits this mold perfectly. Wendle does need some help and Segura/Berti are not ideal backup SS. I don't think we should count on Amaya just yet.

You can make a very dedicated LHP lineup taking out the 3 obvious guys if they were to get Andrus, and right handers are a mix and match whose hot

vs LHP
C - Fortes/Stallings
1B - Arraez
2B - Berti
SS - Andrus
3B - Segura
LF - Soler
CF - DLC
RF - Garcia
DH - Cooper
--
B - Fortes/Stallings
B - Sanchez
B - Jazz
B - Wendle


vs RHP
C - Fortes/Stallings
1B - Cooper/Arraez
2B - Arraez/Wendle/Berti
SS - Andrus/Wendle
3B - Segura/Wendle
LF - DLC/Sanchez
CF - Jazz
RF - Garcia/Sanchez
DH - Soler/Cooper/DLC
--
B - Fortes/Stallings
B - Mostly Berti, random Arraez/Soler off days
B - One of Cooper/DLC/Sanchez/Garcia (whoever needs off day)
B - One of Andrus/Wendle/Segura (mostly Andrus or Wendle here)



Obviously I do not love Arraez at 1B 50+ games, as well as Soler another 40-50 in LF and DLC another 30+ in CF, but the rest of the defense is potentially really good (assuming Jazz can in fact handle CF). I think they'd get above average defense here at 5 positions, then there is Jazz, then 1B will be who knows with Cooper, and effectively this Arraez/Soler/DLC out of position platoon may be good enough as Arraez is likely an asset with grounders to negate whatever is lost in LF/CF. Or at least playable.

It works. And this gets better with Rosario/Peraza for more longterm upside and a guy who would play 130+ game as Andrus is likely less. I'm telling you, absent a Reynolds or better level player anywhere to reshuffle with a stud, it's a shortstop.

I know youre not arguing that they should do that, but there is no situation in which jazz should not be playing every day. He needs the opportunity to play, even against LHP. The fact that he only got 35 ab's last year against lefties is ridiculous. He's the best bat on the team. Players develop. To not give the guy who is by far the most talented on the roster even a chance to develop and get better against lefties is stupid. same thing with pinch hitting him in the 7th inning when a lefty comes out of the bullpen as if the game couldnt possibly develop to where he gets another plate appearance. It's self sabotage.

[fish16]

Andrus is a career .725 OPS against lefties, and he's not exactly in his prime. He was good against lefties last year, but to think of him as some lefty masher (or any kind of masher really), is not a fair indication of what he has been in his career. He was always a glove first SS. For his career he is a very below average hitter. Career 85 WRC+. In 2021, he had a .478 OPS against lefties in a decent sample of 161 ab's. in 2020 it was .583 in a super small sample of 34 ab's.

The more this conversation goes on, the more obvious the play for reynolds is. They can have sanchez and bleday, plus rogers, Eder, meyer, fulton, etc. whatever package works with rogers, the OF's, and the upper minors SP's is such a no brainer for us.

As is right now, with the platoons needed, there really arent enough roster spots to make it work perfectly at LF and SS. The perfect deal is for reynolds, and if im NG, i do whatever it takes to get it done. They can have literally any piece outside of Sandy, Eury, Luzardo, and Cabrera to me. From there you can figure out how you get a platoon partner for Wendle.

[Todd]

TBH the LF platoon that would work most well would likely be De La Cruz and Burdick. Even as RHP have figured him out more as he worked his way through the minors he still hit LHP well.

I'd dangle Sanchez in a change of scenery trade to get another SP or a RP who has years of team control.

[fish16]

TBH the LF platoon that would work most well would likely be De La Cruz and Burdick. Even as RHP have figured him out more as he worked his way through the minors he still hit LHP well.

I'd dangle Sanchez in a change of scenery trade to get another SP or a RP who has years of team control.

You keep sanchez, you dangle DLC. He was terrible last year for all but 3 weeks. I just highly doubt he all of a sudden became a masher due to a slight tweak in his swing. He was legitimately terrible for almost all of last year. on september 23rd, he had an OPS of .638. He was legitimately terrible for 4.5 months in the year, from May through mid september. and it wasnt a small sample.

There is a lot of reason to think Sanchez can break out as i explained earlier. He will still likely be a platoon guy long term, but he should mash righties. Like you said, if Burdick becomes what he has the potential to become, that can be an elite platoon pairing. He needs likely at least another half year in AAA, but even in his super limited time last year in the bigs when he wasnt ready, Burdick put up a .760 OPS against lefties in a small sample. His power is legit. If he can ever hit righties he will be a nice player. this year will tell us a lot in the development of him, Sanchez, and Bleday.

[Todd]

For their careers DLC has a line of .278/.319/.457 v RHP while Sanchez has a .229/.307/.453.

You could say that is BABIP related(.337 for DLC v .266 for Sanchez), but I don't think you can say either is more or less likely to sustain their production against RHP or get better. Not a big difference in sample either, with 41 AB more for Sanchez.

Neither should be long term plans, but I think Sanchez would get a better return here and now(might finagle two solid young BP arms for him).