2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

Wacha wants 2 years 30 million. they have enough pitching. No thanks. If injuries happen, so be it. Pitch the kids. They got the veteran innings eater with Cueto, and Castano can throw some games if they need, same with the guy they got from the twins. a 7 man rotation when we have the kind of talent we have already is counter productive. Figure out the innings later in the year if it gets to it. Most of the time it doesnt.

Sandy, Cueto, Cabrera, Rogers, Luzardo, Garrett, Sixto, Castano, eventually Eury and possibly Eder, plus Smeltzer. That's enough, especially if the cost for more is 15 million a year for a guy who was terrible for 3 straight years prior to last year.

[lou]

Wacha wants 2 years 30 million. they have enough pitching. No thanks. If injuries happen, so be it. Pitch the kids. They got the veteran innings eater with Cueto, and Castano can throw some games if they need, same with the guy they got from the twins. a 7 man rotation when we have the kind of talent we have already is counter productive. Figure out the innings later in the year if it gets to it. Most of the time it doesnt.

Sandy, Cueto, Cabrera, Rogers, Luzardo, Garrett, Sixto, Castano, eventually Eury and possibly Eder, plus Smeltzer. That's enough, especially if the cost for more is 15 million a year for a guy who was terrible for 3 straight years prior to last year.

What Wacha wants and Wacha gets are entirely different scenarios. He's never going to get that. He'll do a little better than Cueto because he's younger. Castano wasn't claimed by the entire league and optioned. Smeltzer is interesting, but the entire league didn't guarantee him a MLB deal. Those guys are effectively injury replacements until Eury/Eder/Sixto/Meyer/Fulton are ready.

I'm just saying, they could use another arm if they really want to go all-in on the wave of SP approach. Maybe Wacha is too expensive and they can conjure up another Z. Thompson. Michael Fulmer is also a FA and I bet they could stretch him out into a 100+ IP arm and it effectively does the same thing.

[rmc523]

I know youre not arguing that they should do that, but there is no situation in which jazz should not be playing every day. He needs the opportunity to play, even against LHP. The fact that he only got 35 ab's last year against lefties is ridiculous. He's the best bat on the team. Players develop. To not give the guy who is by far the most talented on the roster even a chance to develop and get better against lefties is stupid. same thing with pinch hitting him in the 7th inning when a lefty comes out of the bullpen as if the game couldnt possibly develop to where he gets another plate appearance. It's self sabotage.

Another of Don's bizarre managing decisions.

[fish16]

What Wacha wants and Wacha gets are entirely different scenarios. He's never going to get that. He'll do a little better than Cueto because he's younger. Castano wasn't claimed by the entire league and optioned. Smeltzer is interesting, but the entire league didn't guarantee him a MLB deal. Those guys are effectively injury replacements until Eury/Eder/Sixto/Meyer/Fulton are ready.

I'm just saying, they could use another arm if they really want to go all-in on the wave of SP approach. Maybe Wacha is too expensive and they can conjure up another Z. Thompson. Michael Fulmer is also a FA and I bet they could stretch him out into a 100+ IP arm and it effectively does the same thing.

they just dont need a full time starter, especially one that will command a good amount of money, whether thats 15 million or whatever he ends up getting. The play should be for a guy with velocity who can translate to a pen arm immediately, but also get stretched out in case of a rash of injuries and eury and eder arent ready yet. They can get that for less than 5 million somewhere. I think Fulmer is a great option there. He's been servicable out of the pen for the last 2 years, and he has a history of being a quality starter who can eat some innings. he was really good as a starter for the tigers to start his career. According to fangraphs he throws 94-95, he combined for 2.2 WAR the last 2 years while not really starting, and can still be stretched out. Granted, its been a few years since he started so he's iikely a 5 innings max guy if he ever were to get stretched out again, but i think that's the perfect fit for what they are looking for out of the pen and what they might potentially need if they have 2 starter injuries before the all star break.

All of a sudden, he replaces nance, and your bullpen looks good enough. Barnes, Floro, Fulmer, Chargois, Enright, Scott, Okert, plus room for 1 more, ideally sixto if he is healthy, or one of the young guys if he's not. While its annoying that they still cant find that one shut down closer on paper, that's a decent amount of quality options and no real albatrosses like theyve had a few of the last few years.

Or they can really go for it and get Fulmer AND Chafin if they cant get another hitter and have money to spend. That would be a pretty lock down bullpen. I like Okert but his peripherals arent as good as you would think they are, so if they can upgrade him with Chafin and then get Fulmer as a middle relief option as well, that's a damn good pen at that point.

[lou]

they just dont need a full time starter, especially one that will command a good amount of money, whether thats 15 million or whatever he ends up getting. The play should be for a guy with velocity who can translate to a pen arm immediately, but also get stretched out in case of a rash of injuries and eury and eder arent ready yet. They can get that for less than 5 million somewhere. I think Fulmer is a great option there. He's been servicable out of the pen for the last 2 years, and he has a history of being a quality starter who can eat some innings. he was really good as a starter for the tigers to start his career. According to fangraphs he throws 94-95, he combined for 2.2 WAR the last 2 years while not really starting, and can still be stretched out. Granted, its been a few years since he started so he's iikely a 5 innings max guy if he ever were to get stretched out again, but i think that's the perfect fit for what they are looking for out of the pen and what they might potentially need if they have 2 starter injuries before the all star break.

All of a sudden, he replaces nance, and your bullpen looks good enough. Barnes, Floro, Fulmer, Chargois, Enright, Scott, Okert, plus room for 1 more, ideally sixto if he is healthy, or one of the young guys if he's not. While its annoying that they still cant find that one shut down closer on paper, that's a decent amount of quality options and no real albatrosses like theyve had a few of the last few years.

I can get behind quickly Fulmer + MiLB deal for Reyes. And aim to pitch Fulmer 90+ innings

Sandy, Luzardo, Cueto, Garret/Cabrera, Rogers
Barnes, Floro, Fulmer, Chargois, Enright
Scott, Okert

AAA - Reyes, Sixto, Nance, Nardi, Simpson, Soriano, Villalobos, Brazoban, Smeltzer, Castano
Looming - Eury, Eder


The only procedural issue here is only Garret and Rogers have options. So unless someone is hurt, routine call ups are going to be a little challenging. But if we assume someone is always going to be hurt and Enright might suck and get DFA'd, that too opens a spot for cycling through the last staff arm.

[lou]

I also think you give Jazz 20-30 games off against lefties this year. He's still coming off a major injury and learning a new position. 135-140 game starter isn't going to hurt no one here is what I'm saying. I'd only play Arraez and Soler more TBH, and for Soler that's just because it's 100+ games at DH so he can really play every day. I think this will work itself out and be a non-issue. He'll get 600 PA with that work load.

[fish16]

I also think you give Jazz 20-30 games off against lefties this year. He's still coming off a major injury and learning a new position. 135-140 game starter isn't going to hurt no one here is what I'm saying. I'd only play Arraez and Soler more TBH, and for Soler that's just because it's 100+ games at DH so he can really play every day. I think this will work itself out and be a non-issue. He'll get 600 PA with that work load.

if the games they give him off happen to be against lefties im fine with it, but what they were doing last year before he got hurt was essentially platooning him, and then even in games against righties, if the other team brough in a lefty in the 7th inning, they would take him out and it would consistently bite us in the ass later in the game, as it was painfully obvious that it would. It again gets back to putting your guys in the best position to succeed. If he is going to rest, it makes sense to rest him against a lefty starter, but he should never be pinch hit for and taken out of a game, nor should he be an automatic rest against every lefty that starts.

[lou]

if the games they give him off happen to be against lefties im fine with it, but what they were doing last year before he got hurt was essentially platooning him, and then even in games against righties, if the other team brough in a lefty in the 7th inning, they would take him out and it would consistently bite us in the ass later in the game, as it was painfully obvious that it would. It again gets back to putting your guys in the best position to succeed. If he is going to rest, it makes sense to rest him against a lefty starter, but he should never be pinch hit for and taken out of a game, nor should he be an automatic rest against every lefty that starts.

I'm with you about not taking him out unless it's absolutely crucial. Bases loaded and down 1 run in the 8th? Probably if some high end lefty is throwing, but absent a real strategic call he doesn't come out if he starts. Effectively, they can manage his workload and just give him the 20+ off days against all lefties absent being banged up. That's not going to be hard to do and shaving call it 75+ PA against lefties off of him is a reasonable approach. I'm not concerned here. Jazz will play every day if he shows some defense anyways.

[fish16]

I'm with you about not taking him out unless it's absolutely crucial. Bases loaded and down 1 run in the 8th? Probably if some high end lefty is throwing, but absent a real strategic call he doesn't come out if he starts. Effectively, they can manage his workload and just give him the 20+ off days against all lefties absent being banged up. That's not going to be hard to do and shaving call it 75+ PA against lefties off of him is a reasonable approach. I'm not concerned here. Jazz will play every day if he shows some defense anyways.

i know we're agreeing and im really splitting hairs, but even in the scenario you outlined, fuck it, let jazz hit. We went over yesterday our options against lefties arent spectacular. I know this is admittedly hypocritical based on what i said about putting your players in a situation to succeed, but id rather go down with jazz up there than anyone else, even against lefties. Unless say Soler/Cooper/Arraez or whoever isnt starting that day, fine, but if the option is jazz vs a lefty or say Berti or DLC against a lefty, let your star sink or swim in my opinion.

[fish16]

while we're on the topic of relievers, Matt Moore is another guy id really love to see us sign for another bullpen arm. another former top prospect who struggled as a starter after initial success, but last year in his first taste of coming out of the bullpen, he was spectacular. Good against lefties, but even better against righties. 1.3 WAR last year out of the bullpen for the rangers, average fastball velocity of 94, 1.98 ERA, 2.98 FIP. He was also very very consistent outside of a mediocre but not terrible May. Every other month he was dominant. I dont care really which one it is out of Chafin, Moore, Fulmer, Reyes, they need 1 more guy for me to be comfortable with the pen.

[lou]

Yikes Arraez won the arbitration hearing based on numbers Twins filed - $6.1m(!). He's making more than Pablo now. This moves team payroll to roughly $92-93m as-is.

This scales up his Arb2 and Arb3 big time. Assuming similar performance, the Marlins may be looking at $20-22m for the next 2 years, and given the reality guys like Bell/Joc are getting $17-19m a year, Arraez is going to be worth well more in free agency. If he drops a 4 WAR year this year, he'll scale up $2-4m over just the arbitration years easily.

An extension is probably minimum 5/$80 (i.e. 6/$86.1 for Marlins tenure), and he becomes a free agent at 32 so he could get a second healthy 3-4 year deal if he holds up. Doing a 4/$60 extension (5/$66.1) is probably team friendly, and his agents would probably want 6/$100+ (7/$106.1+) and shoot for the moon.

I like the idea of a 4/$60 with 2 free agency years, and spread that out relatively equally so you front load it a little bit. Arraez gets to free agency a little faster, and no one is laughing at a $70m career before you turn 31. He can get that second deal still.

[Lee Stone]

Man, I hated the Arraez trade! Pablo could have fetched a couple Dodgers (Vargas and Outman maybe? Yankees Peraza?) I haven't been all that happy with Jazz thus far - mainly due to his immaturity - but I love him in the IF, where he is vastly better than Arraez. The inclusion of Salas to the trade was truly insult on top of injury.

I know there are some who embraced the trade ... but time will kill the infatuation.

[lou]

Man, I hated the Arraez trade! Pablo could have fetched a couple Dodgers (Vargas and Outman maybe? Yankees Peraza?) I haven't been all that happy with Jazz thus far - mainly due to his immaturity - but I love him in the IF, where he is vastly better than Arraez. The inclusion of Salas to the trade was truly insult on top of injury.

I know there are some who embraced the trade ... but time will kill the infatuation.

If they could have gotten Peraza they would have. I'm not sure that Dodgers trade is better but Vargas might be good. I saw they are going to play him at 2B which is interesting. But yea Salas was adding too much but an extension forgives all. They should offer him 4/$60 and 5/$75 extensions and see if one gets that done. Secure him through age 30/31 season. He's a real good 5th/6th best player on a contending team, they obviously just need to figure out how to get the 2-3 more studs they don't have after Sandy and Jazz (which could be any of Eury/Luzardo/Cabrera/Rogers/Sixto/Eder/Berry hitting their apexes). Reynolds and Correa would have been NICE.

[Lee Stone]

Salas seems to have all the tools. I just don't think you trade that kind of potential.

If I were trading Pablo to the Twins, it would have been for Royce Lewis.

Note: If Perez, Eder and Fulton all pitch for Jacksonville, it might be the best AAA rotation ever. Then again, it is not totally inconceivable that Sixto Sanchez could wind up as a part of that rotation too.

[fish16]

Salas seems to have all the tools. I just don't think you trade that kind of potential.

If I were trading Pablo to the Twins, it would have been for Royce Lewis.

Note: If Perez, Eder and Fulton all pitch for Jacksonville, it might be the best AAA rotation ever. Then again, it is not totally inconceivable that Sixto Sanchez could wind up a part of that rotation too.

Jose Salas is a 19 year old in A+ ball. The likelihood that he becomes even an above average MLB starter is super low at this point. He's more likely to never play in the big leagues. He is talented, but he isnt a cant miss prospect. He had a combined .722 OPS in A and A+ ball. MLb has him as the twins 13th best prospect.

They needed a major bat upgrade for Pablo, and they got him. Arraez is one of the best pure hitters in baseball and one of the best leadoff hitters in baseball as well. They have other pieces to get those other guys you wanted if they want to. They needed a guy who we know can produce at a high level at the major league level, and they got that. You're gonna love Arraez within a month of opening day.