2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

I’m unfortunately stuck in the mindset of the team is going to infinitely be stuck in mediocrity because they aren’t willing to take that next (expenditure) step and do what they need to do to actually compete. They had the obvious opportunity last off season and continued with the cheap “we tried” half measures, and until they show otherwise, I have no faith they’ll do anything else. They burned that bridge of trust last offseason.

absolutely. this team desperately needed a new owner who was going to make an investment into this team without needing to have the revenue from the fans via increased attendance first. Anybody who knows this market knows it's been beaten and worn down by this franchise and the only way to build the fanbase is to produce a winner. to do so we need to spend some money on the product on the field. Instead, what we have is a standoff where cheap ass ownership wont spend money until more fans start coming out to the ballpark and we have the revenue to spend that money, and fans like me say fuck you bruce sherman I'm not spending my hard earned money to support a franchise you wont even support yourself. So we're in perpetual bottom 5 payroll in baseball until we find an owner with deep pockets who is willing to make an initial investment in this team on the field right away.

I'm a diehard fan of this team unfortunately and there isn't a chance in hell I'm supporting this team with my money until ownership spends money.

[Erick]

I’m sorry but feeling confident about trading Pablo Lopez because we have the likes of Trevor Rogers to replace him still doesn’t make much sense to me.

In a perfect world, some of these starters we have are relievers.

I feel like Sandy has hidden the fact that our pitching has been mostly ass too.

Cabrera and Luzardo about to come back soon, I guess we’ll see. Neither guy has proven he can stay healthy, and neither guy has really proven that he can consistently be an effective starter when healthy either.

Maybe I’m being spoiled by watching Sandy but I feel like most of these guys are more amazing high leverage arms than they are starters who go deep into games (not that Pablo has been going that deep in games lately anyway, I guess)

[Todd]

I think a few good starts this season making people ignore that Luzardo has been hot garbage his entire career is a bit odd too(especially since he had a few really bad outings this season too).

[lou]

I think a few good starts this season making people ignore that Luzardo has been hot garbage his entire career is a bit odd too(especially since he had a few really bad outings this season too).

Actually his last 13, throwing at a 2.8+ WAR/180 IP pace during that 64 IP sample. Which is basically Pablo level production. Dude had a TJ and is really young. He has superstar upside.

[sports24/7]

I think a few good starts this season making people ignore that Luzardo has been hot garbage his entire career is a bit odd too(especially since he had a few really bad outings this season too).

I mean, we’re talking about a 24 year old with a total of 33 starts. I think it’s perfectly fair to be bullish about what we’ve seen from him this year.

I’m sorry but feeling confident about trading Pablo Lopez because we have the likes of Trevor Rogers to replace him still doesn’t make much sense to me.

In a perfect world, some of these starters we have are relievers.

I feel like Sandy has hidden the fact that our pitching has been mostly ass too.

Cabrera and Luzardo about to come back soon, I guess we’ll see. Neither guy has proven he can stay healthy, and neither guy has really proven that he can consistently be an effective starter when healthy either.

Maybe I’m being spoiled by watching Sandy but I feel like most of these guys are more amazing high leverage arms than they are starters who go deep into games (not that Pablo has been going that deep in games lately anyway, I guess)

I don’t think Rogers is in any way the reason anyone is ready to trade Pablo. You trade Pablo because you’re going to have to pay him soon, or lose value, and with the season he’s having, his value may never be as high as it is right now. And you trade him because you only have so many avenues to acquire some much needed hitting. And even if Rogers doesn’t end up somewhere between the horrible pitcher he is right now, and what he was last year, you have Sandy, Luzardo, Meyer, Cabrera, Perez, Garrett, Eder, and Sixto; who have all at some point shown encouragement about being at least a decent starting pitcher. Then, there are other guys with some upside like Fulton, McCambly, etc. Also, despite being unwilling to do this recently, there’s alway FA to add a serviceable starter if all of that somehow falls apart.

But the main point here is you have pitching depth and a serious lack of bats. No matter how good this staff is/can be, it won’t matter if they don’t add players that can score runs. Selling high on an asset like Pablo to help fix that dearth of hitting is a necessity for a franchise that just isn’t going to go out and buy multiple good bats.

[lou]

I’m sorry but feeling confident about trading Pablo Lopez because we have the likes of Trevor Rogers to replace him still doesn’t make much sense to me.

In a perfect world, some of these starters we have are relievers.

I feel like Sandy has hidden the fact that our pitching has been mostly ass too.

Cabrera and Luzardo about to come back soon, I guess we’ll see. Neither guy has proven he can stay healthy, and neither guy has really proven that he can consistently be an effective starter when healthy either.

Maybe I’m being spoiled by watching Sandy but I feel like most of these guys are more amazing high leverage arms than they are starters who go deep into games (not that Pablo has been going that deep in games lately anyway, I guess)

I think you're probably being a little spoiled with Sandy, as well as annoyance with them being bad. However, you aren't wrong in that they need to throw these guys in waves (like the Rays) and shield everyone from a third time through a lineup.

They could set up a staff like this for next year very easily (also replace Pablo with a 1 year FA SP that can handle 5-6 if necessary if we're trading him):

Sandy+Garrett throw day
Luzardo+Poteet throw day
Pablo
Opener+Cabrera+Garrett
Opener+Rogers+Poteet

And then have rolling bullpen availability with TBD Reliever, Bender, Pop, Scott, Bleier, and Hernandez as a long man as needed and have him ready Sandy/Pablo starts in case they do need help as the other 3 have a backup plan already to get through innings. Bender and Pop have options so you can call up and down an arm if needed.

Ideal? No. But this will shield you innings for all the obvious guys who likely can't get over 140 IP, and then put Rogers/Cabrera in the best position to succeed at least getting through a the top of the lineup once. I'm imaging Garrett throwing 3-4 innings and closing out games as the second half of the # 4 SP here and then getting a normal RP inning on a Sandy/Luzardo start throw day, etc. This plan can work itself out very easily.

And then refresh pending Eury, Eder, Sixto, and Meyer. Then you can REALLY start throwing 1+ through the lineup waves


That being said, I wouldn't also confuse confidence with needing bats desperately. I'd bet on them figuring out pitchers more than conjuring 3 WAR bats, hence Pablo should be sacrificed and hopefully he and moving out the Cooper/Bertis/Bass/etc. of the team get them 2 and Bruce spends on a 3rd. I'll completely live with that rotation above and just swap an innings eater in for Pablo and ride them hard to get past the super2 deadline.

Bruce should just spend $110m but what else you gonna do?

[lou]

It's fair to say it's 2024 at this point also right?

Meyer being hurt is not great. Rogers is who the fuck knows. Garcia and Stallings are not combining for 4 WAR. Luzardo, Cabrera, Poteet, and Sixto coming off injuries. Eury has no feet wet after meteoric rise and will take a few to get up to speed MLB level. Berry is going to need a year at least. Sanchez needs help. Bleday is who knows. Soler is not giving them the 2019/post-2021 performance. I can go on. It's everywhere but Sandy, Jazz, and is Garrett the next best story here maybe? We like Berti and Wendle and they are gone after 2023?

They sort of tried for year 5 of the rebuild, but Rogers/Garcia/Stallings/injuries absolutely killed them. I'm not sure anything absent really spending $110m and liquidating a little more of the farm than we want turns 2023 into a team we think can win 85-88 games as it.

So if that's the gameboard, what do you do? I mean seriously here. Do you kick the fans in the nuts again but don't care as strategically it does make sense to punt yet another season, or do you try to really maneuver out of this and pray to all that is holy that at least 3 of Luzardo, Rogers, Cabrera, and Garrett are throwing hot lava next year.

Just musing here, but there is no right answer. I just feel you start with fix the fucking offense and a team with a $80-90m payroll just has to do that with moving Pablo.

[lou]

And as I look at the box score, Astudillo is the only pitcher who didn't give up a run and Billy Hamilton played 2B.

I mean the fuck?

[rmc523]

absolutely. this team desperately needed a new owner who was going to make an investment into this team without needing to have the revenue from the fans via increased attendance first. Anybody who knows this market knows it's been beaten and worn down by this franchise and the only way to build the fanbase is to produce a winner. to do so we need to spend some money on the product on the field. Instead, what we have is a standoff where cheap ass ownership wont spend money until more fans start coming out to the ballpark and we have the revenue to spend that money, and fans like me say fuck you bruce sherman I'm not spending my hard earned money to support a franchise you wont even support yourself. So we're in perpetual bottom 5 payroll in baseball until we find an owner with deep pockets who is willing to make an initial investment in this team on the field right away.

I'm a diehard fan of this team unfortunately and there isn't a chance in hell I'm supporting this team with my money until ownership spends money.

I bought into the idea of the rebuild, as long as the second half of that promise was fulfilled - that they'd spend when it was time. It was time last year, and they wasted money, I doubt they bother this year. 100% agree about the mindset of fans here. It's also why I hoped a super rich owner would've come in, kept the lineup together AND spent on pitching, Dodgers style (not to that extent, but the same game plan) to spend a lot at first to win, and then replace from within with cheaper players over time.

Oh well. It's nice to dream.

[rmc523]

It's fair to say it's 2024 at this point also right?

Meyer being hurt is not great. Rogers is who the fuck knows. Garcia and Stallings are not combining for 4 WAR. Luzardo, Cabrera, Poteet, and Sixto coming off injuries. Eury has no feet wet after meteoric rise and will take a few to get up to speed MLB level. Berry is going to need a year at least. Sanchez needs help. Bleday is who knows. Soler is not giving them the 2019/post-2021 performance. I can go on. It's everywhere but Sandy, Jazz, and is Garrett the next best story here maybe? We like Berti and Wendle and they are gone after 2023?

They sort of tried for year 5 of the rebuild, but Rogers/Garcia/Stallings/injuries absolutely killed them. I'm not sure anything absent really spending $110m and liquidating a little more of the farm than we want turns 2023 into a team we think can win 85-88 games as it.

So if that's the gameboard, what do you do? I mean seriously here. Do you kick the fans in the nuts again but don't care as strategically it does make sense to punt yet another season, or do you try to really maneuver out of this and pray to all that is holy that at least 3 of Luzardo, Rogers, Cabrera, and Garrett are throwing hot lava next year.

Just musing here, but there is no right answer. I just feel you start with fix the fucking offense and a team with a $80-90m payroll just has to do that with moving Pablo.

The problem is their "plan" always seems to count on every single thing going right. And then 1 thing (and often several more) goes wrong, and the whole house of cards collapses like dominoes. There's layers of pitching, but they refuse to take advantage of that. There are negative layers of bats, so when the 1 or 2 guys that actually are producing inevitably get hurt, there goes the season. It's the same thing from the Loria days - counting on everything going right, and Stanton goes down and there goes the season.

[Lee Stone]

I see no trades of any consequence at the deadline for Miami. Loved the idea of flipping Cooper, but his injury seems to have wiped out that possibility. I read Pablo rumors coming from Mish/etc. but would be surprised to see that happen.

[lou]

Jazz 40th most valuable to fangraphs, as well as mentions he has best 2B in baseball upside - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-trade-value-31-to-40/

So Jazz 40, and Pablo/Rogers/Eury honorable mentions. I suspect we have to wait till Friday and the top 10 for Sandy but we'll see.

[Erick]

Jazz 40th most valuable to fangraphs, as well as mentions he has best 2B in baseball upside - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-trade-value-31-to-40/

So Jazz 40, and Pablo/Rogers/Eury honorable mentions. I suspect we have to wait till Friday and the top 10 for Sandy but we'll see.

Sandy’s gotta be top 5.

[sports24/7]

If Pablo is getting moved, he finished in style. I wish there was a realistic way to keep him and fix the offense, but I don’t think there is. Hopefully they can get a really nice return for him.

[Erick]

If Pablo is getting moved, he finished in style. I wish there was a realistic way to keep him and fix the offense, but I don’t think there is. Hopefully they can get a really nice return for him.

There is a realistic way.

It would just involve our owner not being cheap for a change.

Bruce Sherman should be getting treated like Loria at this point. He sucks.