2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[rmc523]

Here’s an interview with Kim any. She didn’t really say a whole lot, but she did make it sound like they’re not going to go after a SS, (which I think we all assumed). There was also this:

Are you in a position where spending is not necessarily going to be an issue in terms of the free-agent market?

Ng: I think we're in pursuit of some really good offensive players, so I'm excited.

You can’t say that, and go out and sign a handful of mediocre players, right? If you do, how does anyone take you at face value moving forward?


https://www.mlb.com/marlins/news/kim...son-priorities

I would hope not. As I said above, it remains to be seen if her/their definition of "really good offensive players" and ours is the same....

[lou]

I get that Lou, but at the same time we had Duvall for another year at a cheap price and we traded him for a C that stroke out 50% of the plate appearances. Someone is going to get Marte the money he wants and it could've been us. I love your ideas, but realistically do you really expect them to do even 1/3 of all of that?

Over the last 5 years, they haven't spent a penny in signing free agents or extending contracts to anyone.... or for all that matters trading for impact players, like, we getting impact players. We only traded for prospects.

Yes - I realistically expect them to do all of it, not just 1/3rd. Maybe I am setting myself up for disappointment (or a forever release into a new team?), but I think you just made the argument why I think it will happen. They haven't spent shit in 5 years. They got the TV deal sorted, they got the naming rights. Payroll is clear. While they certainly whiffed on guys (Brinson most notably), they have an in-house team that can project to be over 30 WAR (we'll say 10 for Sandy/Rogers/Pablo, another 15 for Anderson/Rojas/Jazz/Sanchez/Aguilar/Floro/Bender/Bleier), and massive upside with Sixto/Cabrera/Luzardo/Hernandez/Thompson/Meyer/Lewin/Bleday where someone is going to land. You can easily see this group being another 5-10 quickly. There is likely 500+ innings and 350+ PA here minimum).

They are 10+ WAR from being a contender, have 3-5 clear needs, and have a $45m payroll with literally nothing on the books longterm (except maybe a Sandy buyout, and future arbitration concerns in literally 4-5 years). They should be shooting for 15-20 WAR in offseason acquisitions to immediately put them over the top on paper (this is a Correa/Seager/Bryant scenario), which I think we all agree won't happen, but they owe it to everyone (including for player developmental purposes) to get a 10 WARish projection from those 3-5 spots. Which isn't going to be difficult to do considering it's 3 starting bats where if one of them is a 3-4 WAR guy (Castellanos), and the other two are Rojas/Anderson/Jazz kind of guys (2-2.5 WAR each), and then you sign someone like Aaron Loup (1.6 WAR last year which is high, but he's a positive) and a good veteran bench bat to maybe add another 1-1.5 WAR combined, and you're set. Flip Pablo for a bat, and replace with Jon Gray or someone else to eat 150 innings to wash that production out if needed.

It's just now or never. If the answer is Yan Gomes, Eddie Rosario, and Mark Canha on 1 year deals, it's time for all of us to move on.

[lou]

I would hope not. As I said above, it remains to be seen if her/their definition of "really good offensive players" and ours is the same....

Yep. The minimum needs to be "Castellanos or better," with the second one being an "Anderson/Rojas" or a super prospect like Jazz (i.e., Brandon Marsh) or better, and the third one needs to be "Aguilar/Cooper" or better (this is likely the catcher - Stallings, Garver, C. Kelly, etc.). With likely a bench upgrade as positionally they probably need another infielder versus triple redundancy with Aguilar/Cooper/Lewin.

Anything less is a failure to me, unless we're getting weird and signing someone like Rizzo on top of this, trading both of Aguilar/Cooper for arms, Castellanos is downgraded to account for Rizzo is going to make some real money but is replaced with someone good like Avisail, etc.

The options are endless because they have done such a good job being cheap and clearing payroll. The only thing holding them back on paper this offseason will be themselves.

[emkayseven]

To be fair, Duvall's contract for next season was a mutual option for $7M, meaning BOTH sides would've had to exercise it. The Marlins obviously felt he wasn't going to exercise the option, and therefore got something for him rather than him walking for nothing. Obviously the return sucked, but how many times have we seen this team just let guys walk and get absolutely nothing for them....the Wittgrens, Hands, etc. of the world. Even if the return sucked in this instance, I'd rather have them make the move than get nothing.

Just a note that Duvall's option was to cover an arbitration year. He is now arbitration eligible and the Braves can tender him a contract. I didn't realize that when we traded him, so I was fine with the trade, but with a year of control still available, what a stupid trade. Wouldn't shock me if our FO didn't realize it, either.

[lou]

Just a note that Duvall's option was to cover an arbitration year. He is now arbitration eligible and the Braves can tender him a contract. I didn't realize that when we traded him, so I was fine with the trade, but with a year of control still available, what a stupid trade. Wouldn't shock me if our FO didn't realize it, either.

I'm sure they knew that. I think they just value Aguilar more than him. Say what we will about them both:

-Duvall is going to be 33/34 next year, it was the best season of his career, he hit .228 and struck out 31% of the time. Sustainable BABIP so the performance was real. Steamer 2022 - .9 WAR over 576 PA. He will be more expensive than Aguilar by a few million I suspect.

-Aguilar is going to be 31/32 next year, it was not his peak year (2nd best), he hit .261 and struck out 18% of the time. Sustainable BABIP so the performance was real. Steamer 2022 - 1.7 WAR over 500 PA

(Also, Cooper - who is going to be 31, has a .9 WAR Steamer projection in 284 PA)


Positionally, Duvall makes A LOT more sense given Cooper/Lewin, but when I think about this, if it's one versus the other, I think you stick with Aguilar over Duvall. He's probably a safer bet for similar production, and you can use that extra money on a different bench player/lefty reliever. We can't have Duvall-bias because of the dingers/Atlanta success?

We'll have to see what they do, but this one doesn't irk me too much. Of course, the caveat here is, they actually act like a MLB franchise this offseason and fill the holes.

[lou]

Blue Jays looking at Pablo/Elisier for Alejandro Kirk. https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status...62993312141321

I typed a whole post about how this is smart, but browser ate it. Basically, great. Kirk is great. Let's do that and spend money on OF/a # 3/4 SP for a year.

[Todd]

That is way too much to give up for Kirk and I don't even think Elesier Hernandez is good.

[Nick]

I'd rather have Moreno, Kirk's weight really concerns me.

[Todd]

Just a reminder that the Twins got two of the Jays top prospects(Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson) for Jose Berrios.

[lou]

I'd rather have Moreno, Kirk's weight really concerns me.

I don't think they will trade him or Martinez. But other people need to be involved for sure.

Kirk is going to hit. If he can be in a 90 game C / 50 game DH (it's coming) time share with a defensive guy for 3-4 years, that's going to be awesome. Fangraphs says "passable defensively" but worry about the longterm. What do we care about his age 27 defense when he's 23? Are robo umps coming also where we care less about catcher defense?

I like other things about Toronto:

-Groshans, their # 3 prospect and 3B. He has nowhere to play for them when Martinez takes over. He's a perfect secondary piece for Pablo. I do understand Kirk is an arguable first and maybe there is something better (Marsh?) for Pablo.
-Grichuk - He makes 2/$21 and that's absolutely money a contender wants to dump when they can go Guirriel/Springer/Hernandez. He makes sense as a veteran outfielder.

Marlins could move them something like Pablo, Elisier, Bass, and Cooper (combined $12m, make them take Bass and Cooper is a good 1B/DH for them).

Kirk, Groshans (he is a top 75 prospect or better), Grichuk and $6m, and more from their farm. I don't know what more that is, but they have depth they can burn and Marlins can sit on it.

Marlins would be doing them a huge solid by making this a cost-neutral 2022 move for them and splitting that out over presumably 300 innings and 300 plate appearances. I have to assume Kirk and Grichuk for the MLB roster, and Groshans and friends for the future, can make it worth their while. Grichuk is an incredibly positive defensive corner OF and can dabble in CF which is a plus. He's effectively the CF backup. He's not great, but he's alright. He could fall into 30 bombs easily.

Assuming this would happen and we like the prospect return (crucial), Marlins payroll is still $40-45m

Kirk, _________
Aguilar, Lewin
Jazz
Rojas, Berti
Anderson, _______
Sanchez
_________, De La Cruz
Grichuk

Sandy, Rogers, _______, Luzardo, Sixto/Cabrera
Bender, Floro, Sixto/Cabrera, Thompson, Pop
______, ______, Okert


They'd have $30-40m or more to spend on 6 guys (I'm expecting a $70-80m team). There are a lot of options here. They could fill out the lineup with C. Taylor, J. Pederson (one year deal), and dare I say Alfaro (he'd be a good backup, arbitration), and have a good chunk of money for 3 more arms.

Taylor/Pederson/Grichuk would be more than enough for CF, and pray for Misner/Scott. Why not even try Anderson out there in spring training? I'm serious.


Anyways, it's interesting. I like where their heads are at at least.

[Nick]

Dude is 5’8” 265 lbs. I have concerns about his durability at 24. 90 games at catcher seems like a lot to ask.

[Lee Stone]

Moreno or no deal for Pablo quality.

It doesn't get mentioned, but Antonio Velez and Jeff Lindgren were the two best starters for the Miami system in August and September. At AA, they both outpitched (by a lot) the likes of Meyer, Nicolas and McCambley.

I hear people touting the idea of giving Nick Castellanos $100M. Spare me. Especially if you factor in the home ball park differential, Nick is Garrett Cooper. Yep, Coop has been unfortunate in the injury department. Shit happens, but you can't presume it.

[Nick]

It doesn't get mentioned, but Antonio Velez and Jeff Lindgren were the two best starters for the Miami system in August and September. At AA, they both outpitched (by a lot) the likes of Meyer, Nicolas and McCambley.

Dude, you’ve said the same thing like 10 times. So technically they’re the most talked about prospects on this board.

[lou]

Dude is 5’8” 265 lbs. I have concerns about his durability at 24. 90 games at catcher seems like a lot to ask.

If the talent evaluators don't think he can give the Marlins 400+ games at catcher over the next 4 years, I definitely agree with you. But if they think he can reasonably do it, he mashes

[lou]

Moreno or no deal for Pablo quality.

It doesn't get mentioned, but Antonio Velez and Jeff Lindgren were the two best starters for the Miami system in August and September. At AA, they both outpitched (by a lot) the likes of Meyer, Nicolas and McCambley.

I hear people touting the idea of giving Nick Castellanos $100M. Spare me. Especially if you factor in the home ball park differential, Nick is Garrett Cooper. Yep, Coop has been unfortunate in the injury department. Shit happens, but you can't presume it.

Cooper radically overachieved last year (see BABIP), and if he was healthy the full season, would have been the 5th best year of Castellanos career. And I like Cooper for who he is. You can sell me they should DFA/trade Aguilar and just go into the year with Cooper/Lewin and I'm fine with that.

I do agree though, 5/$100 is a lot for Castellanos. But, this team has payroll to burn so I don't care if it's an extra $20m. Do something.