June Game Thread

[Lee Stone]

If you have a hot month in AAA, you're a top 10 prospect in the Marlins system for Lee

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I agree with this. Granderson isn't great, but I think he gets June. He could get hot and turn into a little IFA cash for a team that doesn't intend to spend it or a fringe LHP bullpen prospect like Mills.

Prado is done. I don't care that he got a few hits last few games. They should DFA him as soon as Walker or Berti is back.

I just want this Aug 1:

Alfaro, Wallach
Cooper, O'Brien (I guess?)
Diaz
Riddle
Anderson, Berti
Dean
Brinson, Herrera (Also I guess?)
H. Ramirez

Then replace O'Brien, Herrera, and Berti in the offseason with.... Anthony Rendon, Didi Gregorious, and "Neil Walker type." That's how you do it.

Lou, do I correctly recall that you recently advocated the idea of signing Starlin Castro to an extension?

Here was my May 1st prospect list:

1) Zac Gallen. Instead of imagining what could/might be, why not credit a player for actually evolving? Gallen has put it all together and spins one beautiful start after another. His performance is near the top of all pitching prospects in baseball, so he certainly tops the Marlins list.

2) Edward Cabrera The lights have come on for the RH power arm ... meaning the bases on balls have disappeared. Sixto Sanchez enjoys more support in baseball circles, but wait: Aren't we hoping that he may someday put up results like Gallen and Edward already are?

3) Jerar Encarnacion. Speaking of the lights turning on ... the 21-year-old has come out of nowhere (the beautiful Dominican Republic, actually) to become the best hitter in the entire Midwest League. Can't criticize anyone for not noticing him earlier because he hadn't shown much of anything, but the 6-4 slugger shines especially bright in comparison to the rest of the Clinton roster. While Jerar is no five-tool player, the Marlins need the hit tool most of all.

4) Jose Devers At 19 he's near the top of the Florida State League in BA and OBP. He's fast and wields an excellent glove at SS. And Miami has a vacancy at that position for the foreseeable future.

5) Sixto Sanchez He could be ... he might be ... if only he can overcome the arm problems of the past two years.

6) Braxton Garrett TJS derailed things for a spell, but here he comes with that curveball.

7) Trevor Rogers They say lefties take more time. That's especially true when they are 6-6. But his improvement is obvious.

8) Harold Ramirez A very big season at AA last year has carried over as hoped. With teammate Austin Dean, he is delivering for the Baby Cakes.

9) Dean The fielding tool remains shaky, but he can really hit. Sneaky quick on the bases too. A former third baseman turned OF, he is now playing some first base.

10) Monte Harrison Baby steps for the Baby Cakes

Only changes I'd make are Holloway in place of Rogers and Dugger in place of Garrett. No spot for JJ Bleday until he actually does something in the system.

[lou]

Lou, do I correctly recall that you recently advocated the idea of signing Starlin Castro to an extension?

Here was my May 1st prospect list:

1) Zac Gallen. Instead of imagining what could/might be, why not credit a player for actually evolving? Gallen has put it all together and spins one beautiful start after another. His performance is near the top of all pitching prospects in baseball, so he certainly tops the Marlins list.

2) Edward Cabrera The lights have come on for the RH power arm ... meaning the bases on balls have disappeared. Sixto Sanchez enjoys more support in baseball circles, but wait: Aren't we hoping that he may someday put up results like Gallen and Edward already are?

3) Jerar Encarnacion. Speaking of the lights turning on ... the 21-year-old has come out of nowhere (the beautiful Dominican Republic, actually) to become the best hitter in the entire Midwest League. Can't criticize anyone for not noticing him earlier because he hadn't shown much of anything, but the 6-4 slugger shines especially bright in comparison to the rest of the Clinton roster. While Jerar is no five-tool player, the Marlins need the hit tool most of all.

4) Jose Devers At 19 he's near the top of the Florida State League in BA and OBP. He's fast and wields an excellent glove at SS. And Miami has a vacancy at that position for the foreseeable future.

5) Sixto Sanchez He could be ... he might be ... if only he can overcome the arm problems of the past two years.

6) Braxton Garrett TJS derailed things for a spell, but here he comes with that curveball.

7) Trevor Rogers They say lefties take more time. That's especially true when they are 6-6. But his improvement is obvious.

8) Harold Ramirez A very big season at AA last year has carried over as hoped. With teammate Austin Dean, he is delivering for the Baby Cakes.

9) Dean The fielding tool remains shaky, but he can really hit. Sneaky quick on the bases too. A former third baseman turned OF, he is now playing some first base.

10) Monte Harrison Baby steps for the Baby Cakes

Only changes I'd make are Holloway in place of Rogers and Dugger in place of Garrett. No spot for JJ Bleday until he actually does something in the system.

What's your point? Coming off a 2.3 WAR season, maybe there was value there in extending him? I'm not faulting him for 65 points under his career BABIP this year. He still is who he is. He's probably an even better extension candidate if you can use this against him.

I'm also at a loss of words that Jerar Encarnacion is your # 3 overall Marlins prospect. Let alone other major issues and omissions with that list.

“Never argue with a fool, onlookers may not be able to tell the difference.” ― Mark Twain

[fish16]

Can we agree to just not take anything lee says about prospect evaluation seriously?

[Nick]

I could see Didi but no way we are signing Rendon. Every team will be in on him, we’ll have to overpay even more than the Werth type contract, and even then he may not come here.

How we handle free agency is going to be the key to everything. The biggest question this FO hasn't answered yet is will they be willing to spend, and I'm not talking about on IFAs. Will we be able to field a roster with even a middle-of-the-pack payroll? I think signing Didi to maybe like a 3 year deal this offseason is a must. We can't have another year of Rojas/Riddle. Rendon would be amazing, but like you said, will it be in our price range? What is our price range? I think we need one big-splash signing before 2021. Maybe we use our excess pitching prospects in 2020 to go after a big bat in a trade. Then use the money saved to maybe go after a James Paxton in Free Agency.

Either way, I think you need 3 big acquisitions to happen by Opening Day 2021 if you want to be a playoff contender. 1. Shortstop 2. Elite Bat 3. Frontline Veteran Starter.

2021 Bullpen is probably very inexperienced but very talented, so maybe you pick up a veteran closer at the deadline, much like Urbina in 2003.

[lou]

How we handle free agency is going to be the key to everything. The biggest question this FO hasn't answered yet is will they be willing to spend, and I'm not talking about on IFAs. Will we be able to field a roster with even a middle-of-the-pack payroll? I think signing Didi to maybe like a 3 year deal this offseason is a must. We can't have another year of Rojas/Riddle. Rendon would be amazing, but like you said, will it be in our price range? What is our price range? I think we need one big-splash signing before 2021. Maybe we use our excess pitching prospects in 2020 to go after a big bat in a trade. Then use the money saved to maybe go after a James Paxton in Free Agency.

Either way, I think you need 3 big acquisitions to happen by Opening Day 2021 if you want to be a playoff contender. 1. Shortstop 2. Elite Bat 3. Frontline Veteran Starter.

2021 Bullpen is probably very inexperienced but very talented, so maybe you pick up a veteran closer at the deadline, much like Urbina in 2003.

The thing is, they should sign two big free agents the same offseason to deflect losing better draft picks. I'm assuming all of the guys you're thinking are qualifying offer guys.

[Nick]

The thing is, they should sign two big free agents the same offseason to deflect losing better draft picks. I'm assuming all of the guys you're thinking are qualifying offer guys.

Didi and Gerritt Cole? If Rendon is not a possibility.

[lou]

Didi and Gerritt Cole? If Rendon is not a possibility.

Sure. Cole is awesome. Just trade some pitching then for a bat. They just got to go for it. They don't need average 1 year stop gaps. They need stars longterm. Signing Abreu for 1 year does nothing short or longterm.

It's Rendon/Cole + Didi, and if you whiff on one of those, maybe you take the plunge on Ozuna/Puig/Castellanos if you think they are good longterm. Any two of them would be a massive upgrade. With the way the SP is looking and getting some life out of some of the young bats, it seems like it's the right time to make a move. I mean how long can they not reinvest when they need to build a fan base??????


Plus, the 2020 offseason isn't great. It's Mookie, a bunch of good SP, and short term option. I think Mookie is well out of the budget and they have a billion OF.

Notable free agents for 2020-21
Catcher: J.T. Realmuto, Mike Zunino, Yadier Molina
First base: C.J. Cron, Yuli Gurriel, Ryan Zimmerman
Second base: Starlin Castro, Jason Kipnis, Cesar Hernandez, Marwin Gonzalez, DJ LeMahieu, Daniel Murphy (mutual option)
Third base: Justin Turner, Zack Cozart, Jake Lamb
Shortstop: Andrelton Simmons, Jonathan Villar, Marcus Semien, Jurickson Profar
Outfield: Mookie Betts, George Springer, Yoenis Cespedes, David Peralta, Michael Brantley, Joc Pederson, Jackie Bradley Jr., Jay Bruce, Giancarlo Stanton (opt-out)
DH: Edwin Encarnacion
Starting pitchers: Trevor Bauer, Robbie Ray, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, Jake Arrieta, Marcus Stroman, Jose Quintana
Relievers: Blake Treinen, Jeremy Jeffress, Alex Colome, Brandon Morrow, Andrew Miller (club option)

The 2021 offseason is exciting:

Catcher: Salvador Perez, Wilson Ramos, Yan Gomes
First base: Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo, Brandon Belt, Matt Carpenter (vesting option)
Second base: Javier Baez, Kolten Wong, Dee Gordon
Third base: Arenado (opt-out), Kris Bryant, Eduardo Escobar, Travis Shaw, Miguel Sano
Shortstop: Francisco Lindor, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trevor Story
Outfield: Michael Conforto, Tommy Pham, Starling Marte, Kyle Schwarber, Byron Buxton, Christian Yelich (club option), Andrew McCutchen (club option)
Designated hitter: Khris Davis
Starting pitchers: Noah Syndergaard, Clayton Kershaw, Corey Kluber, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, Chris Archer, Mike Foltynewicz
Relievers: Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, Brad Hand, Jeurys Familia, Corey Knebel, Archie Bradley, Raisel Iglesias, Roberto Osuna, Zack Britton (club option)



So it's either this offseason, or 21 offseason and circle 2022. I have confidence in what they have right now, so I think they should go for it. Rendon, Didi, and 2-3 Walker/Romo/Rojas types for cheap really make the 2020 team interesting.

[Nick]

What do you think about trying to deal for Trevor Story? Does Brendan Rodgers make him expendable? They're always looking for more pitching.

[lou]

What do you think about trying to deal for Trevor Story? Does Brendan Rodgers make him expendable? They're always looking for more pitching.

Away splits

2019 - .711 (overall .902 OPS)
2018 - .780 (overall .914)
Career - .746 (overall .868)

I like Story, but even splitting the difference between the Away/Overall slash lines is giving up a low .800 overall SS. Still an awesome player with his defense, but I don't think you buy him for what they'd want (and deserve).

I'd rather sign Didi if he proves his health. Maybe the Yankees dont extend him a qualifying offer which is even better.

I think you buy the free agent bats in 2020, and trade the pitching or OF excess (if it exists) for 2021.

[fish16]

I'll take Elvis Andrus on a smaller and cheaper deal over Didi Gregorious any day. Didi has Yankee lineup and yankee stadium induced numbers written all over him to me. He's not nearly as good as his numbers indicate to me. Obviously we would have preferred Bogaerts in a heatbeat, but with the choices remaining, I go Andrus on a shorter term deal then try to recruit lindor when he's up in a few years.

[Namaste]

Three totally unrelated thoughts:

Lindor in 2021 or bust

Imagine thinking Sixto Sanchez is not our top prospect

This is a HUGH outing for Sandy. He didn’t pitch very good his last outing but he got bailed out by some big DP’s

[lou]

I'll take Elvis Andrus on a smaller and cheaper deal over Didi Gregorious any day. Didi has Yankee lineup and yankee stadium induced numbers written all over him to me. He's not nearly as good as his numbers indicate to me. Obviously we would have preferred Bogaerts in a heatbeat, but with the choices remaining, I go Andrus on a shorter term deal then try to recruit lindor when he's up in a few years.

2018 Didi

Home .944 OPS
Away .700

But

2017 Didi

Home .707
Away .882

I don't buy Yankee Stadium induced numbers based on this, but maybe the 2017 away is all luck?

Also, Elvis 2016-2018 cumulative split

Home .810
Away .734

(This year it is way more neutral in his defense in the 2019 SSS).

Texas is a launching pad just as bad if we want to be fair. They are both heavy offensive parks.


Didi's defense is exquisite. We'll have to see how he looks when he is healthy, but assuming health and the Marlins payroll, you take the better player who is 18 months younger (who won't really cost that much more). Recall, Didi has two 4 WAR seasons back to back. Andrus is coming off a 1.2, and pacing for a 2.5 this year. His 2017 was great though. He's good, but he doesn't project as much as Didi and has a lower floor.

Also, this franchise is not going to pay top 5 salaries in baseball with Lindor unless something amazing happens with gate receipts and the TV deal. They can probably spend $40 million on 2-3 core longterm players, and another $10ish on an annual rotating basis for the Walkers/Romos/Rojas types.

[fish16]

2018 Didi

Home .944 OPS
Away .700

But

2017 Didi

Home .707
Away .882

I don't buy Yankee Stadium induced numbers based on this, but maybe the 2017 away is all luck?

Also, Elvis 2016-2018 cumulative split

Home .810
Away .734

(This year it is way more neutral in his defense in the 2019 SSS).

Texas is a launching pad just as bad if we want to be fair. They are both heavy offensive parks.


Didi's defense is exquisite. We'll have to see how he looks when he is healthy, but assuming health and the Marlins payroll, you take the better player who is 18 months younger (who won't really cost that much more). Recall, Didi has two 4 WAR seasons back to back. Andrus is coming off a 1.2, and pacing for a 2.5 this year. His 2017 was great though. He's good, but he doesn't project as much as Didi and has a lower floor.

Also, this franchise is not going to pay top 5 salaries in baseball with Lindor unless something amazing happens with gate receipts and the TV deal. They can probably spend $40 million on 2-3 core longterm players, and another $10ish on an annual rotating basis for the Walkers/Romos/Rojas types.

my point is they are both around the same player to me, and didi is going to get paid significantly more and he's not going to be worth any thing close to what he will get, especially translated to our park. Id rather save money, go with the shorter term and safer deal, and then see if you can get lindor in a few years and if not, draft one or hope devers/johnson/nunez pans out.

[fish16]

We've seen this Sandy before. A big inning by the brewers seems due fairly soon. Hopefully the bats can get going or he can minimize the damage.

Also, how does the home plate ump miss that call right in front of him in real time? It was pretty obvious on tv he was out on the relay from rojas.

[Namaste]

We are playing elite defense tonight

Grandy with another double. Sweet.

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Grandy then ANDY!!!!!!!!!