June Game Thread

[Namaste]

We’re going to get to 20 wins before the Orioles and Royals.

#It’sTheLittleThings

Prado just pounded one but about 5 feet short of a HR to deep center in SD.

[fish16]

We’re going to get to 20 wins before the Orioles and Royals.

#It’sTheLittleThings

Prado just pounded one but about 5 feet short of a HR to deep center in SD.

Over 43, that’s for sure. 2 absolute bombs by Alfaro and cooper. Hitting still isn’t great but it’s been so much better the last 3 weeks

[Nick]

We needed some of these fringe guys to emerge. (O'Brien, Dean, Riddle, Cooper, etc.) and through a month and a half I wasn't sure it was going to happen, but Ramirez and Cooper are trending in that direction. Good to see.

[fish16]

We needed some of these fringe guys to emerge. (O'Brien, Dean, Riddle, Cooper, etc.) and through a month and a half I wasn't sure it was going to happen, but Ramirez and Cooper are trending in that direction. Good to see.

Ya those 2 have been very good. Also helps that we stopped with the bullshit of forcing guys like Herrera and Galloway into the lineup all the time. Also helped that Anderson is trending toward regressing to the mean and Castro inevitably has to start trending up too. I started off the year saying around 70 wins and then backed off after the terrible hitting start, but I’m starting to get back to thinking we’ll finish with around 70 again

[lou]

Alfaro scares the crap out of me with his batter profile, but I'm fine with this if he is a perpetual overachiever.

Imagine if he goes all Gallo and starts whiffing only 28% of the time.

[Nick]

Alfaro scares the crap out of me with his batter profile, but I'm fine with this if he is a perpetual overachiever.

Imagine if he goes all Gallo and starts whiffing only 28% of the time.

He is kind of an enigma, but he hits the ball hard man.

[Namaste]

9 games out of the Wild Card in the loss column, boys.

[fish16]

To win 43 games we will have to go 22-83

- - - - - - - - - -

9 games out of the Wild Card in the loss column, boys.

Fire mattingly, bring back jack for a third tour of duty, and then quickly develop a generational prospect in the next few weeks to give us a spark like Cabrera.

[Namaste]

I think we can let the 43 wins thing die out now. It’s kind of trolly.

[tjfla]

9 games out of the Wild Card in the loss column, boys.

Jeff would be in buy mode right now

[Lee Stone]

Alfaro scares the crap out of me with his batter profile, but I'm fine with this if he is a perpetual overachiever.

Imagine if he goes all Gallo and starts whiffing only 28% of the time.

I was very disappointed with Alfaro's all or nothing approach to start the season ... however, I have seen a huge change in his approach/discipline over the last two weeks. He's gotten himself under control, esp. with two strikes, and I give him lots of credit for that. Frankly, he's starting to look like a bonafide 4 or 5 hitter.

[lou]

I was very disappointed with Alfaro's all or nothing approach to start the season ... however, I have seen a huge change in his approach/discipline over the last two weeks. He's gotten himself under control, esp. with two strikes, and I give him lots of credit for that. Frankly, he's starting to look like a bonafide 4 or 5 hitter.

I'd go with a 6/7 hitter on a good team until he starts walking/whiffing less, but that's more than fine as a plus defensive option at a tough position to fill.

What encourages me is this:

2017 .318 AVG/.420 BABIP
2018 .262 AVG/.406 BABIP
2019 .278 AVG/.376 BABIP

All sorts of SSS issues above for sure, but his BABIP dropped 25 points on the 2019 season in the last week or so, and he wasn't punished with any average drop as he's hitting the ball real hard. Even as a theoretical high BABIP guy, this is totally unsustainable, but if the 2019 rates are more real, that looks like a .250 hitter which is a far cry from the impending doom of .200 the 2018 line suggests. I really like Alfaro if he hits .250.

This actually kind of makes sense, as if you move him to a .350 BABIP, his 2017 and 2019 seasons are basically the same as a true .250 hitter. I know there is a lot more to this, but I'm just eyeballing this. I can buy pitchers adjusted to him his 3rd/4th time through the league in 2018 explaining how luck fueled him versus a true talent explosion.

Just saying, if he finishes with a .250 AVG / .350 BABIP that's going to be a pretty big break out in my view. I really, really, hate his 2018 profile so it's just an enormous shift for me if he sustains this. Fangraphs thinks high .230s AVG, so hopefully he is a little better than that, but I think I'd take .235+ in a heartbeat considering his defense and there will be slugging tied to that for sure. His whiff rate is down 4% (36-32) which is obviously not good, but that is an improvement nonetheless. He does get hit by a lot of pitches so there is some hidden value there. I guess we'll see. Maybe these guys are good at identifying catchers, as Realmuto, Barnes, and Alfaro are three of the best ones in baseball?

Cautiously optimistic this is a big win here. Realmuto has a 2.1 WAR in 221 PA, Alfaro has 1.1 in 171 PA. Scaling him to Realmuto's PA and he has a 1.6. That's pretty fucking good if Alfaro is 1+ win less than the best catcher in baseball making way less money.

[Lee Stone]

I'd venture to say follow your eyes in evaluating Alfaro's progress. K rate too. 9 in his last 41 plate appearances vs 47 in his first 130. That's a huge improvement.

[lou]

I'd venture to say follow your eyes in evaluating Alfaro's progress. K rate too. 9 in his last 41 plate appearances vs 47 in his first 130. That's a huge improvement.

I don't think 41 PA is a trend. One golden sombrero devastates the rates. Give me another 100 PA minimum.

[Erick]

Alfaro was, continues to be, and will be a good option at catcher moving forward. He’s an every day guy. His power tool is quite nice actually. Some of you are not taking into account how bad the position is right now in the sport. Alfaro is the least of our problems. Of our position players at the big league level right now, he’s easily the most intriguing player.