2024 Game Thread

[lou]

If you didn’t see the amazing defensive play started by Derek Hill in the win against the Mets today….



https://www.mlb.com/video/valente-be...to-pete-alonso

He has a career .844 OPS against left handers with 80th percentile arm strength and 95th percentile sprint speed. Don’t ask about how he fairs against right handed pitching.

There’s a chance he could be a pretty ideal bench OF to split with Sanchez, and maybe they’d opt to keep him opening day over Stowers who is really struggling and has an option so he can maybe work it out in ASA. A no doubt big few weeks for Hill.

[lou]

Meyer looking very hittable.

He's only throwing 2 pitches (SL/FB) against right handers, and adds a CU against lefties. Slider is kind of incredible so its just sitting on fastballs if your right handed and not swinging at sliders if you're a lefty. He needs much better 2nd and 3rd pitches. FB and CU are getting hammered.

1st time through xFIP 3.93, 8.05 K/9
2nd time through xFIP 4.96, 6.75 K/9

If nothing more, Max is going to be a very good 2 IP reliever floor as its a SSS, but I imagine max velocity ticks up the 1st time through stats and he gets enough out of his fastball to be a FB/SL reliever. It would be bad for his draft position, but a great 90 IP 45+ appearance usage reliever has value when Bendix really shifts the pitching usage to something like the Rays. That being said, that is an August 2025 decision as he's only 98.1 innings back from his injury and lets see what the next 150 IP or so look like first for him and all the other starters. I wouldn't be shocked if a bunch of those are in the minors as he really needs to develop something beyond his slider.

[fish16]

with norby up, i want to see him, edwards, burger, stowers, and hopefully soon DDLS up and playing everyday for the rest of the year. i'd also give sanoja a try for the last month. not going to hurt anything. and he probably wont be on the roster come april anyways so it wont drastically affect any service time issues.

[Nick]

Got rid of Rivera, that's a positive step, but can we call up somebody so we're not playing our super utility guys (Lopez/Brujan) every day? You could call up DDLS or Johnston for Bride 3B, Norby 2B, Burger 1B, DDLS/Johnston DH or call up Sanoja and have Norby 3B, Sanoja 2B (or SS), Bride 1B, Burger DH. That would be so much more fun.

[lou]

Got rid of Rivera, that's a positive step, but can we call up somebody so we're not playing our super utility guys (Lopez/Brujan) every day? You could call up DDLS or Johnston for Bride 3B, Norby 2B, Burger 1B, DDLS/Johnston DH or call up Sanoja and have Norby 3B, Sanoja 2B (or SS), Bride 1B, Burger DH. That would be so much more fun.

DDLS and Sanoja are 21 so the service time fairy can giveth their age 28 season with a mid-April call up. Different analysis than Norby who Balt had called up already and the service time would be his age 31 season. I’d be surprised.

Regardless I’d like to see Bride, Otto, and Hill play everyday and see what happens. Brides OBP potential, Otto’s defense (and base running!), and Hill’s LHP splits (and theoretical defense and base running) are things one could build off if they happen to show something else with some more dedicated playing time. I’d play Hensley a bit too as he has an option so could be a good depth player maybe as he can play a few positions. They should replace Brujan and Pache IMO and I don’t care with who.

They'd actually probably love to have all 4 of those guys work out enough and do this:

C Fortes, Ramirez, ______, Banfield
1B Burger, DDLS
2B Edwards, Otto, Serna
SS _______
3B Bride, Hensley, Pauley
LF Norby, Stowers
CF Hill, Sanoja, Mesa Jr.
RF Sanchez, Dane

Get a catcher to bridge to Ramirez/Banfield in late summer/2026 and a starting SS, and they could mix and match guys pretty much all over the field as everyone plays multiple positions.

[Nick]

I don't think there's anything more Otto can show me as an every day player. He'll be a solid utility infielder, but give me someone who has a chance to be an every day player down the road every day at bats. You can make up the service days back in AAA in 2025 if that's what you're worried about.

[fish16]

this whole penciling in of lopez for a future role makes no sense to me. the guy cant hit. i'm tired of rostering guys who are complete 0's in the lineup when they start. defense is valuable, of course, but to me, there is no amount of defense that makes a sub .600 OPS passable. It was the same bullshit with Wendle and Stallings over the last few years. it's not an issue right now so who cares, but any kind of penciling him on the roster for next year and beyond is short sighted to me. you can find guys who are passable on defense and also arent complete 0's in the lineup. Having a lineup 1-9 who are competent hitters is almost as important to me as finding those star level talents for the middle of the order. We saw it last year, unless you find a way to get judge and soto like the yankees which we obviously wont have, you cant have a lineup where 2-3 spots are just complete 0's

[lou]

this whole penciling in of lopez for a future role makes no sense to me. the guy cant hit. i'm tired of rostering guys who are complete 0's in the lineup when they start. defense is valuable, of course, but to me, there is no amount of defense that makes a sub .600 OPS passable. It was the same bullshit with Wendle and Stallings over the last few years. it's not an issue right now so who cares, but any kind of penciling him on the roster for next year and beyond is short sighted to me. you can find guys who are passable on defense and also arent complete 0's in the lineup. Having a lineup 1-9 who are competent hitters is almost as important to me as finding those star level talents for the middle of the order. We saw it last year, unless you find a way to get judge and soto like the yankees which we obviously wont have, you cant have a lineup where 2-3 spots are just complete 0's

Otto is pacing as over a 2 WAR player this year per 600 PA, is a 92nd percentile defender, 88th percentile base runner, and his expected slash is .263/.299/.384 (.683 OPS). Nico Hoerner has a .670 OPS this year and a 2.3 WAR. Brice Turang, .686 OPS and a 2.2 WAR. Do you hate them too? They are all excellent defenders. It plays.

You gotta play Otto to see what happens with the bat. His career batting split is .120 points higher vs RHP which is also interesting. He's potentially much better than you think he is. He should be a 40 man lock absent a true falling apart next few weeks which is the only thing one needs to pencil someone in for. I don't know what else to say here. This is exactly the kind of guy the Rays have that are always productively annoying.

Also, every team in baseball is looking for the bolds at all times. Check out what Atlanta is about to do at 3B. It starts with a Y and ends with Uli.

[fish16]

Otto is pacing as over a 2 WAR player this year per 600 PA, is a 92nd percentile defender, 88th percentile base runner, and his expected slash is .263/.299/.384 (.683 OPS). Nico Hoerner has a .670 OPS this year and a 2.3 WAR. Brice Turang, .686 OPS and a 2.2 WAR. Do you hate them too? They are all excellent defenders. It plays.

You gotta play Otto to see what happens with the bat. His career batting split is .120 points higher vs RHP which is also interesting. He's potentially much better than you think he is. He should be a 40 man lock absent a true falling apart next few weeks which is the only thing one needs to pencil someone in for. I don't know what else to say here. This is exactly the kind of guy the Rays have that are always productively annoying.

Also, every team in baseball is looking for the bolds at all times. Check out what Atlanta is about to do at 3B. It starts with a Y and ends with Uli.

if you see a guy with an OPS under .600 in close to 300 PA's and their WAR is 1.0, that should either alert you that they are one of the best defensive players in history or that your precious WAR stat greatly inflates defensive WAR. you simply cannot tell me a guy with a .593 OPS, 63 WRC+, and 62 OPS+, has been worth 1.0 WAR this year. You can believe he's on a 2 WAR pace if you'd like, i think WAR greatly inflates defensive value, and the measurements of defensive value are not yet measured accurately.

You talk about his RHP batting split as if it's remotely passable. He's at .640 OPS against righties, .475 against lefties. Neither one of those are passable outside of being a defensive replacement last man on the roster. Nico Hoerner has a 92 WRC+ this year and Turang has a 92 WRC+ to go along with 37 sb's. Those guys are not comparable.

The couple of balls that lopez's range allows him to get to compared to the league average defender does not equate to 1.0 WAR given the difference between his ability to hit and the league average hitters ability to hit. WAR is just an equation that someone deemed to be the right measurement system of a players overall value. IT is not a statistic. You can use it as your end all be all if you wish, but i find it completely unreliable and thoroughly overvalues defensive value relative to offensive value.

[lou]

if you see a guy with an OPS under .600 in close to 300 PA's and their WAR is 1.0, that should either alert you that they are one of the best defensive players in history or that your precious WAR stat greatly inflates defensive WAR. you simply cannot tell me a guy with a .593 OPS, 63 WRC+, and 62 OPS+, has been worth 1.0 WAR this year. You can believe he's on a 2 WAR pace if you'd like, i think WAR greatly inflates defensive value, and the measurements of defensive value are not yet measured accurately.

You talk about his RHP batting split as if it's remotely passable. He's at .640 OPS against righties, .475 against lefties. Neither one of those are passable outside of being a defensive replacement last man on the roster. Nico Hoerner has a 92 WRC+ this year and Turang has a 92 WRC+ to go along with 37 sb's. Those guys are not comparable.

The couple of balls that lopez's range allows him to get to compared to the league average defender does not equate to 1.0 WAR given the difference between his ability to hit and the league average hitters ability to hit. WAR is just an equation that someone deemed to be the right measurement system of a players overall value. IT is not a statistic. You can use it as your end all be all if you wish, but i find it completely unreliable and thoroughly overvalues defensive value relative to offensive value.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb

Hoerner xwOBA 39th, 85th base running, 85th fielding <- He's obviously the best as the best hitter
Turang xwOBA 31st, 45th base running, 76th fielding <- He's good with this defense
Otto xwOBA 29th, 88th base running, 92nd fielding <- He's also good with this defense

There isn't much variation between these players with what they have done this year. Take off your fantasy baseball hat with Turang's SB - who cares. He's an average base runner who happens to generate SB. He's actually a dope on the bases with how fast he is, but that happens. Ultimately, I do think Nico and Turang have more upside as I would agree Nico should hit more and Turang probably will tick up on the base running and fielding as he settles in more, but why can't Otto generate some real value over 400+ PA as a similar poor man's version of these players? My entire comment about Otto is - they should play him more here on out to see what happens with the bat, because if there is any improvement (as he is young), he could tick up radically with this defense (and base running a lesser extent). That's it. He has 1 enormously enormously great trait, and a second very good one with the base running. He is worth investing a lot of time into IMO as if he can be an overall higher .600 OPS hitter, he frankly is a big asset. Remember, Miguel Rojas is a career .679 OPS hitter and he is a very premium bench guy at minimum. Otto's expected slash is 263/.299/.384 (.683 OPS). He's been unlucky for sure. He's fast as hell and has a .280 BABIP. I think something will give here as he regresses to the mean. And looping that in with the cited RHP split advantage, if he is closer to a .683 OPS overall bat which the stats suggest, and he has a RHP platoon split, is that split playing higher against RHP so is he over a .700 OPS against right handers? If so, now you are in major business and he's frankly a must play at 2B which opens up a lot of possibilities for the Marlins. For me, the stats back giving Otto time (as well as time at SS). He might fall apart who knows, but there is a lot to build off here IMO and they owe it to themselves to see if he is going to click. Peter did good on this one. That's it here. Let's give Otto heavy time for 6 weeks, and see if he really cements going on the 40 man roster.

I also note, none of the above is citing WAR per your request. (Which again, is an easy way to value players on a sports message board to synthesize things into 1 stat for short hand conversation versus typing longform here's an analysis to all the parts - or do you we want longer posts?)

And because we're here, a .640 OPS is not great of course, but it ranks about 40th at the position for 2B type guys. You do this all the time chastising guys hitting below an .800 OPS, but you really got to look at the league and see what everyone is hitting. Offense is very down. Guys with high .600 something OPS that do other things (like defend) are really fine players. Dalton Varsho is one of the better outfielders in the league by all metrics. So when you say "lets be the Rays" this is how you be the Rays - you find the Otto's that do a ton of little things even if imperfect. Like Kevin Kiermaier who had a career .708 OPS (ticked up a little for RHP) and defended his way to relevancy. Otto's 92nd percentile fielding is that territory if he's going to hit a little. Cross your fingers here. He's a lot better than most Marlins fans seem to think.

[fish16]

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb

Hoerner xwOBA 39th, 85th base running, 85th fielding <- He's obviously the best as the best hitter
Turang xwOBA 31st, 45th base running, 76th fielding <- He's good with this defense
Otto xwOBA 29th, 88th base running, 92nd fielding <- He's also good with this defense

There isn't much variation between these players with what they have done this year. Take off your fantasy baseball hat with Turang's SB - who cares. He's an average base runner who happens to generate SB. He's actually a dope on the bases with how fast he is, but that happens. Ultimately, I do think Nico and Turang have more upside as I would agree Nico should hit more and Turang probably will tick up on the base running and fielding as he settles in more, but why can't Otto generate some real value over 400+ PA as a similar poor man's version of these players? My entire comment about Otto is - they should play him more here on out to see what happens with the bat, because if there is any improvement (as he is young), he could tick up radically with this defense (and base running a lesser extent). That's it. He has 1 enormously enormously great trait, and a second very good one with the base running. He is worth investing a lot of time into IMO as if he can be an overall higher .600 OPS hitter, he frankly is a big asset. Remember, Miguel Rojas is a career .679 OPS hitter and he is a very premium bench guy at minimum. Otto's expected slash is 263/.299/.384 (.683 OPS). He's been unlucky for sure. He's fast as hell and has a .280 BABIP. I think something will give here as he regresses to the mean. And looping that in with the cited RHP split advantage, if he is closer to a .683 OPS overall bat which the stats suggest, and he has a RHP platoon split, is that split playing higher against RHP so is he over a .700 OPS against right handers? If so, now you are in major business and he's frankly a must play at 2B which opens up a lot of possibilities for the Marlins. For me, the stats back giving Otto time (as well as time at SS). He might fall apart who knows, but there is a lot to build off here IMO and they owe it to themselves to see if he is going to click. Peter did good on this one. That's it here. Let's give Otto heavy time for 6 weeks, and see if he really cements going on the 40 man roster.

I also note, none of the above is citing WAR per your request. (Which again, is an easy way to value players on a sports message board to synthesize things into 1 stat for short hand conversation versus typing longform here's an analysis to all the parts - or do you we want longer posts?)

And because we're here, a .640 OPS is not great of course, but it ranks about 40th at the position for 2B type guys. You do this all the time chastising guys hitting below an .800 OPS, but you really got to look at the league and see what everyone is hitting. Offense is very down. Guys with high .600 something OPS that do other things (like defend) are really fine players. Dalton Varsho is one of the better outfielders in the league by all metrics. So when you say "lets be the Rays" this is how you be the Rays - you find the Otto's that do a ton of little things even if imperfect. Like Kevin Kiermaier who had a career .708 OPS (ticked up a little for RHP) and defended his way to relevancy. Otto's 92nd percentile fielding is that territory if he's going to hit a little. Cross your fingers here. He's a lot better than most Marlins fans seem to think.

to answer your question in bold- because he is an awful hitter. you love to use expected numbers. you did the same for multiple years for DLC. His numbers stink because he is a ground ball machine. his ground ball number would be the highest in baseball if he qualified. his flyball % would be 3rd worst in baseball. his walk rate is below 5%. his exit velocity would be 28th worst in baseball. He offers nothing other than defense. He isnt getting unlucky, he's not a good hitter. He had a .656 OPS in over 300 ab's in AAA last year.

Calling him a big asset is fucking laughable. you're right, offense is down. It's not down to the point where a sub .600 OPS is a remotely acceptable number.

It is very clear you actually watch very little baseball. you're entire analysis is consistently exclusively statistically based and it's very obvious when you are talking about players that you havent actually watched much.

[Nick]

It's not just Marlins fans that doubted him. He was DFA'd by both Toronto and San Francisco in the last year. If he were 92nd percentile playing SS every day that may get my attention. 2nd Base not so much. He's a nice utility guy to have, he's John Berti's replacement. That's fine. He should not be taking major league ABs away from guys with starter potential.

[Namaste]

to answer your question in bold- because he is an awful hitter. you love to use expected numbers. you did the same for multiple years for DLC. His numbers stink because he is a ground ball machine. his ground ball number would be the highest in baseball if he qualified. his flyball % would be 3rd worst in baseball. his walk rate is below 5%. his exit velocity would be 28th worst in baseball. He offers nothing other than defense. He isnt getting unlucky, he's not a good hitter. He had a .656 OPS in over 300 ab's in AAA last year.

Calling him a big asset is fucking laughable. you're right, offense is down. It's not down to the point where a sub .600 OPS is a remotely acceptable number.

It is very clear you actually watch very little baseball. you're entire analysis is consistently exclusively statistically based and it's very obvious when you are talking about players that you havent actually watched much.

You, by your own admission, watch very little 2024 Marlins baseball. You don’t get to say, “fuck this team they’re not getting my time or money” and then accuse Lou of of not watching baseball.

[fish16]

You, by your own admission, watch very little 2024 Marlins baseball. You don’t get to say, “fuck this team they’re not getting my time or money” and then accuse Lou of of not watching baseball.

I’ve watched 3 out of the 5 months this year and the only two months I didn’t watch was when ballys was literally unwatchable for people with Xfinity. Also, there are 29 other teams. I watch a lot of rays, orioles, and Red Sox because I get nesn and all of the national games

also, I don’t think Lou watches not only the marlins, but baseball in general. Everything about him is statistics

[lou]

to answer your question in bold- because he is an awful hitter. you love to use expected numbers. you did the same for multiple years for DLC. His numbers stink because he is a ground ball machine. his ground ball number would be the highest in baseball if he qualified. his flyball % would be 3rd worst in baseball. his walk rate is below 5%. his exit velocity would be 28th worst in baseball. He offers nothing other than defense. He isnt getting unlucky, he's not a good hitter. He had a .656 OPS in over 300 ab's in AAA last year.

Calling him a big asset is fucking laughable. you're right, offense is down. It's not down to the point where a sub .600 OPS is a remotely acceptable number.

It is very clear you actually watch very little baseball. you're entire analysis is consistently exclusively statistically based and it's very obvious when you are talking about players that you havent actually watched much.

What I think is very clear is you have extremely poor reading comprehension. What I said is, he shows some excellent traits so they should give him playing time to see what happens, not that he is a big asset. But if he hits more, he becomes a big asset. He has a similar hit profile as Turang and Hoerner who are pretty good players. And yes, he is underachieving with a .280 BABIP and he should be in the mid/upper .600s in OPS but he isn't. There is nothing profound here. I'm not sure what is so confrontational about saying they should play him hard for 6 weeks - and especially at SS - and see what happens because he is displaying a profile that could be a pretty good player. And if he doesn't hit? He's on the 40 man chopping black. Why are you so fucking angry all the time, and don't even bring a good argument? For instance, all of the GB rates are baked into his analytics profile, and he's still looking like a mid/higher 600 OPS hitter because he's fast AF and those guys out run the dribbles. Just like Edwards. He's simply just an asset if he has a .675 OPS and plays this defense. That's it. Developing positive bench players off waivers is what good front offices do.