2024 Game Thread

[lou]

Yeah I think lou is higher on Puk than warrants. He's been great for about 50% of his time with the marlins, but he's absolutely sucked the other 50%. Yes, there was the failed starter experiment, but he also could absolutely not be trusted during our 2nd half playoff run last year, as a reliever.

Marlins have the third best bullpen in the league this year and it's floor fourth. This is a be careful what you wish for as every fan base hates their bullpen, but when you look under the hood, the Marlins have an excellent bullpen and Puk is a huge part of it. He's on a 1.5+ WAR RP pace this season once you swap out the failed SP experiment. It's a SSS of 30+ innings, but there are very few RP in baseball that can do that.

However I get the trade if 2026 or beyond is being circled as carrying lower control RP you won't extend is likely not worth it for a non-contender and frankly, we know what is coming with their target year sadly. Maybe they surprise and don't trade Jazz and Luzardo. It's just low for me here with a free swinging DH type, but we'll see what happens.

[sports24/7]

They can't be out on more bats. Randy has an .881 LHP / .657 RHP OPS split this year, and career .918 LHP / .743 RHP. He's an elite DH vs LHP and an OK one against RHP. He's also expensive. It's just a cheap move for them prospect wise for what they traded. It's not a great fit because they have better hitters for lefties and need guys who hit righties more but why not if you're Seattle. For perspective, Jesus Sanchez is a better hitter (especially with predominant RHP split) and fielder right now, and he's cheaper with more control. Randy has name value, although he is heating up.

Seattle needs someone who can play 2B/3B and hit right handers big time IMO, and a longterm view is they need a 3B or OF, preferably CF. He's perfect. This probably takes them out on Sanchez as a throw in as Randy is certainly a hitter and if Randy is getting that in a trade, Sanchez gets more. Bell might be a good throw-in for them too to eat all his money, and they can just release if he doesn't heat up.

So it's probably Jazz, Scott/Bender/Cronin/Brazoban, and maybe Bell and $$$ and that should get Celesten/Farmelo, Peete, and two FV40s.

Or you just keep Jazz because he is GOOD.

Morosi is saying they’re still active even after getting Randy. He said at least one RP and a bat. We could help them kill two birds with one stone.

[sports24/7]

Marlins calling up Max Meyer.

[sports24/7]

That's fine if you don't like him for intangibles, but it's definitely not a sell high. If you view him as say a .8 WAR reliever the next two years which is a safe floor to me, it's selling even at best if you think DLS has taken a small step forward since preseason. I think Puk is better than that and when you see Ryon Healy as comps for DLS, it makes you worry if the whiffs/free swinging catch up to him. He got a CJ Cron comp also, and he's a 1.4 WAR per 600 PA player for his career, and he has been able to spike over 2 WAR twice. That's probably an ideal outcome as a primary DH/spot 1B. Hopefully that comes with a spike versus lefties and Martorella/DLS is a good 1B platoon and DLS gets a lot of DH time against righties as he can still hit them.

Punk’s ERA was what, in the 9s, a couple of months ago? Sure he was starting at the beginning of the year, but I think it’s completely reasonable for his production to drop, potentially significantly. Maybe selling high wasn’t accurate, but selling now puts them in a position where they won’t be selling low, which historically has been an issue for this franchise.

Also, I’d say DLS took a pretty healthy jump since preseason. He went from exposed to the rule 5 draft to the Futures Game.

[Nick]

Marlins calling up Max Meyer.

Bendix avoids the swirlie.

[lou]

Morosi is saying they’re still active even after getting Randy. He said at least one RP and a bat. We could help them kill two birds with one stone.

Yep, we have been saying this for weeks here. It lines up perfectly..... if we ignore its 18-19 year olds coming back. But the value will be there

[lou]

Punk’s ERA was what, in the 9s, a couple of months ago? Sure he was starting at the beginning of the year, but I think it’s completely reasonable for his production to drop, potentially significantly. Maybe selling high wasn’t accurate, but selling now puts them in a position where they won’t be selling low, which historically has been an issue for this franchise.

Also, I’d say DLS took a pretty healthy jump since preseason. He went from exposed to the rule 5 draft to the Futures Game.

Maybe, but I think Puk is an ascending undervalued asset TBH. They should give him a 4 year extension. He is hitting his groove as an elite left handed reliever, and he may still become a starter again in the offseason if he can get past the yips. He has the arsenal and body type to do it. We can put this to bed though. There is no sense going deep into players who are no longer Marlins and hope Bendix is right about DLS. I am fearful of a .230/.280/.400+ hitter basically because of the whiffs, 35 grade hit tool, and he's not a defender. So he's going to need to make enough contact for that power to click. We'll see. He's going to get 500 PA next year for sure at the MLB level.

[fish16]

Maybe, but I think Puk is an ascending undervalued asset TBH. They should give him a 4 year extension. He is hitting his groove as an elite left handed reliever, and he may still become a starter again in the offseason if he can get past the yips. He has the arsenal and body type to do it. We can put this to bed though. There is no sense going deep into players who are no longer Marlins and hope Bendix is right about DLS. I am fearful of a .230/.280/.400+ hitter basically because of the whiffs, 35 grade hit tool, and he's not a defender. So he's going to need to make enough contact for that power to click. We'll see. He's going to get 500 PA next year for sure at the MLB level.

You literally just described DLC who you have been touting for his peripherals and exit velocity numbers despite shitty results for like 3 years

[lou]

You literally just described DLC who you have been touting for his peripherals and exit velocity numbers despite shitty results for like 3 years

Not sure what the point is here. The decision for this organization to keep playing DLC and hoping it clicks has been the right one. Same with Sanchez. They have shown traits to become big contributors if it happens for them. And I'll be here saying the same thing about DLS assuming he has a similar hard hit profile and isn't whiffing 40% of the time and you just have to hope something clicks one day. Current Brent Rooker being a top example of a whiftastic guy working out, but being a consistent CJ Cron isn't a terrible thing to develop either. I'd welcome that quickly if DLS is a 1.4 WAR guy over say 500+ PA and can handle 1B at least against LHP (Martorella the rest). That's a solid trade for 2.33 years of Puk if that happens.

Ultimately, there are guys to take bets on and the DLC, Sanchez, and DLS higher EV guys/RHP splits for Sanchez who have a trait that can play if they work out gives them a long leash, versus guys like Nick Gordon or Rivera who are showing nothing offensively and can be DFA'd literally today.

Also to note, DLC's expected slash right now is .253/.297/.460 (.757). It's not amazing, but if that's your 7th or 8th hitter, that ain't bad. It's why there are some reports out there teams are sniffing him as a trade target. I believe I saw the Pirates in particular. Could be a solid and cheap DH. To note, a .757 OPS if we are to believe the analytics is an easy middle of the pack DH in the league. It's why I keep banging the drums here the Marlins have "good not great" parts all over the team for contenders and can't let the team's record overshadow that. I fully believe DLC can be a .750 OPS hitter today forward for a few years, which is not a huge jump for him at all. DLC is going to cost like $5-6m next 2 seasons. He's *still* a smart bet for a cheap DH despite the what I would agree is an under whelming showing so far this year. He's going to cost what, two FV40 guys outside a team's top 15 if not 20? There will be buyers for him at that price and probably worth it to move on now to clear DH time for Burger, Martorella, DLS, and Berry, and the slew of OF (Marsee, Sasaki, Dane, Mesa Jr., etc.) as they each get called up.

[lou]

Yimi traded to Seattle for Clase - a solid FV40 CF type in Mariners system

So the RHP reliever is out, but maybe they still want another one if cheap with options (Brazoban. He's actually solid)

But I will read this in a glass half full - they have even less longterm OF depth now as Arozarena is a DH ultimately.


They are 100% trading for an OF with this move to kick one of their upper minors outfielders.

[Todd]

Elfin to Orioles. UT Mac Horvath(Orioles #10), RHP Jackson Baumeister(Orioles #17), and OF Matt Etzel is the return

[lou]

Mets apparently are going for it.

Chisholm, Scott another RP for Gilbert, Acuna, Parada, and Kade Morris.

2025 lineup of
C-Parada
1B-Martorella(L)
2B-Edwards(S)
3B-Sanoja
SS-Acuna
LF-De Los Santos
CF-Mesa, Jr.(L)
RF-Gilbert(L)
DH-Johnston(L)

Granted. I doubt the Mets overpay like that.

Like where your head is at. I actually think that trade is a little light though and would want another solid player from the Mets. Gilbert, Acuna, and Parada haven't exactly been great this year, even if longterm probably doesn't matter.

Soft tweak to this:

Chisholm, Scott, Cronin/Hoeing/Maldonado/Brazoban (Bender or Faucher OK if a deal breaker but would keep them as non-slider guys)

Gilbert, Acuna, Baro, Parada, Kade Morris, and another outside top 25 guy. Baro looks like he is ascending a potential floor solid 2B/3B/dabble SS backup and hit tool might turn into a starter.


I'd do it even if it's the Mets. Get the best deal.

[lou]

Elfin to Orioles. UT Mac Horvath(Orioles #10), RHP Jackson Baumeister(Orioles #17), and OF Matt Etzel is the return

That is an amazing trade for Baltimore. I think Tampa really undersold.

[Todd]

Like where your head is at. I actually think that trade is a little light though and would want another solid player from the Mets. Gilbert, Acuna, and Parada haven't exactly been great this year, even if longterm probably doesn't matter.

Soft tweak to this:

Chisholm, Scott, Cronin/Hoeing/Maldonado/Brazoban (Bender or Faucher OK if a deal breaker but would keep them as non-slider guys)

Gilbert, Acuna, Baro, Parada, Kade Morris, and another outside top 25 guy. Baro looks like he is ascending a potential floor solid 2B/3B/dabble SS backup and hit tool might turn into a starter.


I'd do it even if it's the Mets. Get the best deal.

I accidentally deleted my post as I was finagling back and forth.

I would keep Maldonado and Hoeing. Neither are anything to write home about but their ability to also step in and spot start fairly effectively is valuable.

Trade out Baro for Alex Ramirez.

Gilbert has only had like 50 ABs this year so I ain't too worried about him.

Jazz/Scott/Cronin for Gilbert/Acuna/Parada/Morris/Ramirez.

[lou]

I accidentally deleted my post as I was finagling back and forth.

I would keep Maldonado and Hoeing. Neither are anything to write home about but their ability to also step in and spot start fairly effectively is valuable.

Trade out Baro for Alex Ramirez.

Gilbert has only had like 50 ABs this year so I ain't too worried about him.

Jazz/Scott/Cronin for Gilbert/Acuna/Parada/Morris/Ramirez.

Sure, whatever works. Just get someone else fairly notable they like. At some point they need to stock pile infielders though which is why I just mentioned Baro. The Marlins are starting to really build out a pipeline for OF and adding just Gilbert to this is a lot, let alone two guys. There may not be huge upside here beyond the two main names (Head, Morlando), but there are bodies and they could get some surprises. Regardless, these are all viable young guys and it's time to find some SS/3B as they have 1B/DH and 2B types in the system (+ Edwards and Otto).

LF - Morlando, Alderman, Coley II (maybe Martorella too)
CF - Head, Mesa Jr., Cova, Sanoja, Pintar, Sasaki
RF - Marsee, Dane, Cruz



In any event, they can really trade any reliever but Nardi more than likely. Practically, it's probably from the Cronin, Munoz, Hoeing, and Maldonado group as they are all the same slider/fastball guys with Bender, Faucher, and Brazoban showing different looks.

Brazoban is really dealing too which I keep thinking about - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...r-pitching-mlb. I really wonder what his value is. 34 isn't too old for a pitcher and he doesn't have huge mileage. He's flashing elite stuff with many years of control. "Always be trading relievers" is certainly a thing as they have wild changes in valuation and trade them at any high as they all come crashing down besides the greats and if someone gets a good 30+ innings out for him god bless, but I'd hate to just give him away as if he does this another 75 innings to next July, just wow he turned into a real asset.

What I am saying in a very long typical manner for me, it's probably moving Cronin first of all the right handers the more I think about it who is at a super high valuation right now with all the team control as he's really not that different from some of the other FB/slider relievers they have, and trusting the Marlins pitch development to get something out of Munoz, Hoeing, Maldonado, Soriano is another one, Anderson is another one, etc. as the rotatable optionable slider heavy bullpen arms next year.

All things considered in the suck of Bruce, this would be pretty good day 1 with Eury coming in July. Needs inventory arms behind them as these guys like McCaughan, Bellozo, Tyler, etc. don't look too great, but the innings are here if healthy.

Sandy, Garrett, Cabrera, Max, Weathers, Rogers
Bender, Brazoban, Faucher, Hoeing, Munoz/Maldonado/Soriano/Anderson (others in AAA, but Anderson is OOO next year)
Nardi, ____ (and they liked Simpson pre-injury)


So yes, let's keep Hoeing and Maldonado as they are fine and might turn into solid middle relievers for sure, and move Cronin first of these guys as he's similar and throwing the best so capitalize on him if a RHP reliever not named Chargois is moved.