2024 Game Thread

[lou]

A .750 OPS is the new .800 OPS

There was an article out there offense is so depressed a .761 OPS is akin to an .800 OPS of the past. It's all relative, but the bar is just a little lower for hitters so call it .761 or just round it up to a healthy .775, that's a fairer border for when a guy is a really beneficial hitter.

Jazz is just over this theoretical threshold at a .764 vs RHP for this year and on a 2.6 WAR season pace, which is just slightly below his 2.9 WAR per 600 PA career pace. He is normal Jazz completely. And imagine him getting into a better lineup and/or home park. Sanchez is over an .800 OPS vs RHP and doing his normal thing. He has a 2.2 WAR his last 666 PA (from May 1, 2023 to get a full season of PA).

These guys are good players and normal franchises would keep them where Jazz may make 2/$13-15 next two years and Sanchez the same over three years, 3/$13-15. That is insane value for guys pacing over 2+ WAR a full season, and Jazz will likely do a little more than that. I'll say it again, Joc Pederson who has a 2.6 WAR his last 700+ PA is making $12.5m this season alone. There is immense value in having these guys around after a 2024 playoff run as they are pretty good and cheap.

[lou]

Let me guess you’re trying to make some sort of stupid point about Arraez even though he is around an .800 career ops and he’s been playing through a shoulder injury for going on 2 months? He had a .340 average and .785 ops at the time of his injury despite a slow start

and Lou has said that several times about ops

Can we just move on about Arraez and root for Bendix getting the last laugh and D. Head and/or Marotorella are as advertised/better than expected? You're right and he will likely be better because of an injury, but he's also at this point just a great DH against RHP and doesn't offer much against lefties or in the field. There is nothing wrong with that but his peak has certainly happened with the defense completely cratering.

[lou]

I think the real story here is Edward Cabrera completely vaporized the Orioles, until the 6th inning and then Brazoban let every inherited runner score.

I'm still taking a swing on him and offering him a 5 year deal + 6th year extension. He's made so little money his career he might take a low $20m something as he is not looking at a large arbitration tender next year so his first real chance at money is staying healthy for 35-40 starts from today till end of 2025. Pay him like a good RP (which he may end up being), and maybe he finds the control and goes full ace. Throw in innings incentives so he can trigger bonuses of he gets a volume. There is a floor really good RP here IMO so this is low risk to me.

Basically, Eury and Max are controlled through 2029 and Noble/White likely debut and become contributors by 2027 in a perfect world (and they still have Brax and Weathers regardless controlled through 28), so you start building in the..... 2027 and beyond contending window. And yes, I know this makes no sense because Bruce sucks and it's the Marlins, but Cabrera is the highest upside guy that would be affordable for at least 2028-2030with an extension, so take a swing on him.

[Nick]

If Max Meyer isn't called up this week, I'm going down to Miami and giving Bendix a swirlie.

Swirlie incoming.

[Namaste]

Marlins going for the sweep of the 3rd best team in baseball today at 12:10.

[Namaste]

Jazz just made an unbelievable catch

[lou]

Swirlie incoming.

Only thing I can think of as to why they wouldn't do it now is they want to start him off with Tampa versus MIL/ATL being tougher opponents. Theoretically they could do this, with extra rest day to start:

7/30 @ TB
8/5 CIN
8/11 SD
8/19 ARI
8/25 CHC

Then shift to normal rest.

8/30 @SF
9/4 WASH
9/9 @ PIT
9/14 @WASH
9/19 LAD
9/24 @ MINN
9/29 @ TOR


That's a pretty good slate for Max to end the year to get him ready for next year. I also think these are mostly 4 IP appearances as I don't think they want him throwing more than that quantity wise, and maybe that Minnesota game would be the last one and not Toronto so they are more like 4.1, 4.2 average appearances.

I'm just grasping at straws here as the service time is out the window. But I like this schedule for Max as it's pretty manageable and it doesn't give ATL/NYM/PHI a look this season so maybe he plays up first time they get to see him next year.

Anyways. He's got 50ish innings left probably. He'll get them all assuming he's healthy.

[Nick]

If Roddery Munoz didn't give up a home run every other AB, he might be something.

[lou]

If Roddery Munoz didn't give up a home run every other AB, he might be something.

I agree with this. Gotta move him to the pen. This is a very Marlins project pitcher - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...r-pitching-mlb


Slider - This is a really good pitch and will be lethal with a little more control if he can figure it out. This is what they are targeting with him for sure. He should be throwing this 40%-50% or more of the time and not an outrageous 18% like he is now. I imagine they are trying to work out the other pitches which is the only explanation. That makes sense in a lost year to then move to the pen and hopefully something clicks.

Cutter - Is not very good but playable as a third pitch. He throws it for solid control. It would be an OK 3rd offering for a RP to show hitters a second offspeed pitch here and there in a lower 15-20% of the time usage to try and sneak them in in lower counts.

Sinker - This pitch is very bad and amounts to a bombs away rally cry for hitters. But.....

Changeup - Is an all caps BOMBS AWAY.... and

4 Seam - MORE BOMBS AWAY in all caps.


They should scrap the changeup entirely unless they think they can figure it out outside the numbers, as his best two pitches are offspeed ones and he can use the slider and cutter enough to get outs. They have to get the sinker or 4 seam to a pitch he can use 35% of the time minimum to get the higher velocity option to play off the others, and then let the slider wipe people out. He's a potential very viable maximum effort RP if he can get likely the sinker going into a real pitch as its better than the 4 seamer.

I'd switch his mix to this:

Sliders 45% (up 27%)
Cutter 20% (down 4%)
Sinker 25% (up 3%)
4 Seam 10% (down 16%)

And see what happens. Also happy to scrap the 4 seam and add 5% each to cutter and sinker. But he should still throw the 4 seam this year to see if something clicks.


And for perspective as checking after typing the longest analysis of a fringe RP ever because its slow today, the 6 most consequential hits:

Santander HR - changeup
Hays 1B - 4 seam
McCann RBI hit - Slider
Mountcastle 1B - 4 seam
Cowser HR - cutter
Norby HR - 4 seam

Just banging the 4 seam and changeup for 4/6 worst moments. He did give up a bomb on the cutter and McCann hit a slider, but that's gonna happen.


This is simply a max effort slider dude and maybe he figures out the sinker (which he threw for 15(!) balls today alone) to turn into a good 7th inning guy.

[Namaste]

Fish just came back from down 6-0

3 off of Burnes and 3 off of Kimbrel

[lou]

Also for perspective, Cronin is awesome and he is throwing:

Unhittable Slider similar to Munoz in hit profile - 53%
Shitty Sinker, but a tick better than Munoz - 40%
4 seam/Sweeper - 7%

Didn't realize this was the mix for him.

This is what they need to do with Munoz, heavy sliders, can deflect away from the sinker just a little but with the cutter, and get the sinker to be "good enough" to throw that 35% of the time.

Solid bullpen chance for Roddery. Gotta get him out of the rotation. Maybe someone in AAA is ready to be called up??????

[lou]

Fish just came back from down 6-0

3 off of Burnes and 3 off of Kimbrel

Baltimore can't wait to leave. This is nuts. Also, wanna trade for Scott and Bender before you go? Leave Norby and fly in someone else please.


Edwards is also way over his head, but why the fuck didn't Kim call him up for real? I don't want to trigger "Joey Wendle" vibes from Fish16, but WTF were they doing? He's doing this after missing a ton of time this year. Pretty impressive.

[Nick]

I think the baseball is invisible when Sanchez faces lefties.

[Nick]

Nick Gordon is bad.

[lou]

Lets continue the pointless review of fringe RP because why not

Faucher is dishing out this:

Solid Cutter
A not great but playable sinker, similar to Roddery's cutter in value. But absolutely no control
Gross curve ball
And not throwing Sweeper much, but that was a pretty good pitch in 2023 so wondering what is going on there


This is a 4th/5th RHP pen kind of whatever guy. He's not making a career carving up guys with a cutter with a sinker he throws all over the place as my god that map. Major control improvements on the sinker are needed to turn into more.

This is likely not a longterm piece, unlike Cronin and Roddery who have the ability to become good 7th inning or better guys