2024 Game Thread

[fish16]

Kikuchi as a decent but not top of the rotation getting such a big return from the astros might indicate a rogers trade being able to really bring back a good haul

[lou]

I don't think Edwards is an apt comparison, when he has like 100 career ABs, when we've been watching Sanchez and DLC start for this club for years.

And yes Edwards is better than that expected slash.

The comparison is only actual production is not how to value someone like he is doing with Lane. Edwards isn’t a .950 OPS hitter. Lane isn’t good unless it’s at DH and lefties. This is like saying the sky is blue and we breath air.

[fish16]

The comparison is only actual production is not how to value someone like he is doing with Lane. Edwards isn’t a .950 OPS hitter. Lane isn’t good unless it’s at DH and lefties. This is like saying the sky is blue and we breath air.

100 career at bats vs 1900. You sound dumb. Actual production is absolutely how you evaluate a guy who has close to 2000 career plate appearances. You just don’t actually watch baseball and want everything to be a computer based stat that can predict the future for you

[sports24/7]

mayer is probably in the mayo camp of not being super realistic for Scott. Regardless, they have done a relatively good job adding 1b, C, and 2b/LF so far, but we need to end the day tomorrow with some sort of long term guy at SS. We have literally nothing there right now given that edwards likely cant stay there long term. Who is next in line after that?

For sure that should be a priority. Although, while he's very young, I just was alerted to the fact that they are supposedly going to sign one of the top IFA players of the next cycle in January, who is a SS, and might be able to stick there. Andrew Salas, the younger brother of Ethan and Jose Salas.

[lou]

I’m not sure what you’re talking about. He is an objectively better baseball player for the last 5 year sample. Your precious war is not even close. What the fuck are you even talking about.

im not talking about price or years of control. This entire conversation has been about their production on the field. Lane Thomas has been objectively better for a 5 year sample. The literal only thing that you have is what the computer tells you one guy should be because you don’t actually watch enough to realize that the reason he isn’t that is because he has 0 plate discipline and swings out of his shoes, which is why his hard hit numbers are good

When trading for someone do you care more about what has happened, or what will happen.

Because every indicator is Sanchez is a better player today, offensively and defensively, who is cheaper and has more club control. Lane is a perfect bench guy to swap in for lefties and that price is great for Cleveland, but you really got to stop with whatever you are trying to prove here. Your comment to Todd was right IMO - you don’t just trade guys to trade guys. The Marlins need a notable return for him. A bunch of FV40s for 3.3 years of him is a hard no. Sanchez is pretty good and might be ascending to just keep if they do turn into a contender in 25/26, or becomes even more valuable by catching up to the hard hit data.

Brent Rooker also swings out of his shoes. You take bets on these guys and most never figure it out, but when you get one oh boy oh boy oh boy that’s how you turn things around fast. He’s got the skill set you bet on. We’re on the same page here - you don’t give him away. No idea what’s going on with Lane here who is a DH versus lefties on a good team and just had a nice last year that was never sustainable.

[Todd]

I dont want to trade to trade. My comment was I had hopes he would bring back a good return because 3 FV40 for Thomas was pretty good.

It's a sellers market.

[Namaste]

The Dodgers like Amed Rosario so much they traded for him AGAIN last night. They sent Michael Flynn to the Rays.

[fish16]

When trading for someone do you care more about what has happened, or what will happen.

Because every indicator is Sanchez is a better player today, offensively and defensively, who is cheaper and has more club control. Lane is a perfect bench guy to swap in for lefties and that price is great for Cleveland, but you really got to stop with whatever you are trying to prove here. Your comment to Todd was right IMO - you don’t just trade guys to trade guys. The Marlins need a notable return for him. A bunch of FV40s for 3.3 years of him is a hard no. Sanchez is pretty good and might be ascending to just keep if they do turn into a contender in 25/26, or becomes even more valuable by catching up to the hard hit data.

Brent Rooker also swings out of his shoes. You take bets on these guys and most never figure it out, but when you get one oh boy oh boy oh boy that’s how you turn things around fast. He’s got the skill set you bet on. We’re on the same page here - you don’t give him away. No idea what’s going on with Lane here who is a DH versus lefties on a good team and just had a nice last year that was never sustainable.

what a guy who is still in his prime has done is the best indicator of what they will be. You just love the hard hit data without realizing that making contact is also important, and the reason why sanchez is a statcast darling is because he hits the ball hard but never lives up to his expected numbers because his plate discipline is horrific and he swings out of his shoes.

Sanchez is not better offensively. He has a gaping hole that is unplayable against lefties. .688 is nothing special against righties for thomas but he more than makes up for it by being elite against lefties. Sanchez doesnt even mash righties, he's just above average against them. He's at .780 for his career. He is at .513 against lefties. So if the options are 2 players who are both below average defensively, one who mashes lefties and is passable against righties, and one who is above average against righties and simply cannot play against lefties, the first one is the better player. and the career WAR to date shows that.

but we both agree that sanchez does bring something, especially for a team with no hitters, and it's not worth it to trade him to get back what he would command in return. you dont have to trade everyone.

[lou]

I dont want to trade to trade. My comment was I had hopes he would bring back a good return because 3 FV40 for Thomas was pretty good.

It's a sellers market.

Gotcha. And yes, three FV40s is good for Thomas for 1.3 years where he's going to cost like $10m to the Guardians for that (Sanchez won't make that next 2.3 years unless he explodes, and you're OK paying him if he does that and not a mirage, etc.). And also borderline GREAT for Cleveland as he is objectively "fucking awesome" against left handed pitching and a late game pinch runner (really good on basepaths). He's a perfect 9th-10th bat for a contender to get around 350+ PA and hammer lefties. TBH, I hope the Marlins find someone like this as this is the guy to match with Sanchez or hypothetically Martorella for a classic R/L platoon as everyone gets theirs in that scenario.

That deal (for three FV40s) just doesn't make sense for 3.3 years of Sanchez who for reasons stated - righty split, better hit data, better defensively, cheaper, etc. He's a good 7th-8th bat on a contender as you can start him against every right hander and play him another 150+ PA versus Lane because there are obviously more righties in the league and doesn't have to come out defensively. I'd expect a FV45, FV45, and FV40 or a FV45+ and two lower grade/18 year old FV40s (someone will be desperate for the later which I don't see happening, so it's targeting two normal FV45s. This is like getting Martorella (platoon prospect), Fulton (injured SP), and Maldonado (RP) as a return which I think we'd all agree, would be acceptable to move him if they were offered that). He's just a keep and see if he starts really - really -pounding right handers.

I'll just keep generally saying here - the Marlins have a lot of good parts for contenders. I don't know if you guys watch Succession, but this is like Alexander Skaarsgaard telling Jeremy Strong Waystar sucks, but I'm buying it because it has a lot of good parts. Sanchez is a good part. The Marlins have a lot of good parts (Otto for a defensive 2B, Burger, Sanchez, and DLC for cheap corner power with some control, Scott of course, Cronin/Bender/Nardi/Brazoban are all very solid RP, Rogers is a perfect "cheaper SP move for someone, banking on Luzardo health for a playoff push and you have him next year if he doesn't get healthy quick enough, etc.) which is why today may get bananas, but we'll see what they do.

[fish16]

nardi seems like a guy a smart team would try to buy low on. hopefully we dont cut bait or at least get the full value. he is a valuable piece. I'd like to see the following guys gone by the end of the day- Bell, Scott, DLC, Brazoban, Chargois, Rogers, and maybe luzardo if baltimore is willing to trade for him still and give full value. IF not keep him.

[fish16]

every time someone mentions the teams interested in scott, the orioles are the first one listed. it just makes too much sense. If they can combine scott and luzardo, that could be a rebuild changing move for us. Mayo, Norby, and more really changes the future outlook quick. It's kind of infuriating that they didnt trade luzardo in the offseason and that luzardo has had an injury filled season. With what kikuchi and Montas got, he could have commanded a farm system altering haul.

[lou]

what a guy who is still in his prime has done is the best indicator of what they will be. You just love the hard hit data without realizing that making contact is also important, and the reason why sanchez is a statcast darling is because he hits the ball hard but never lives up to his expected numbers because his plate discipline is horrific and he swings out of his shoes.

Sanchez is not better offensively. He has a gaping hole that is unplayable against lefties. .688 is nothing special against righties for thomas but he more than makes up for it by being elite against lefties. Sanchez doesnt even mash righties, he's just above average against them. He's at .780 for his career. He is at .513 against lefties. So if the options are 2 players who are both below average defensively, one who mashes lefties and is passable against righties, and one who is above average against righties and simply cannot play against lefties, the first one is the better player. and the career WAR to date shows that.

but we both agree that sanchez does bring something, especially for a team with no hitters, and it's not worth it to trade him to get back what he would command in return. you dont have to trade everyone.

Yes the bold I fully agree with.

The rest not so much IMO so we can agree to disagree. But one very important note here as I think you may be overlooking this, Sanchez is a 75th percentile defender right now. Lane is 3rd percentile. Big big defensive difference here. I'd agree with you if Sanchez was a slug defensively and hes limited to DH duty, but he's not. Plug and play all right handers in RF/LF. Lane is a DH only against lefties and late game pinch runner. Both have their roles on championship level teams as back half hitters as they are very good at the 2 things they do well. It depends on what a team needs if they need a righty or lefty killer, but the righty is always going to be the better player in a vacuum (absent unusual circumstances like they are also a 3% valued defender) because they can play against more folks. There are just more right handers. Combine that with Sanchez has more control, cheaper, better hit data, and is younger (what's Sanchez look like in 2 years which is where Lane is in his life?), you gotta go for him in a vacuum. But good move for Cleveland and Washington. I love the trade for everyone.


Moving on here, I kind of feel Sanchez is a keep through arbitration (unless he falls apart) as they are going to have so many club controlled bats, they can just pay him these reasonable arbitration numbers and let him bash right handers for years. He's an undervalued piece I think in a lot of Marlins fans heads (I don't think this is you). The guy has a 2.4 WAR his last 725+ PA. This is a solid player and I think he matches the team needs/depth chart pretty well. I expect Burger and DLC to be shed by August 1, 2025 to make way for DDLS, Martorella, Berry, and Ramirez(some DH), and perhaps Dane/Marsee turn into guys worthy of long looks too, but Sanchez really has no one on his tails in the entire organization right now as Dane/Marsee can play LF/RF and maybe some CF if they make it, and guys like Mesa Jr./Sasaki are going to be defensive CF only backups if they make it. Maybe some trades today impact this, but since Jazz is gone now, I think he is 1 of 2 guys on the 26 man roster they should be keeping for years. The others Edwards of course. And both those guys should be, at best and being generous, the 5th and 6th hitters on a good team so they have A LOT of work to do here to find their 1-2-3-4 hole (or 2-3-4-5 if Edwards is going to have a .360+ OBP and he's fine leading off, etc.) hitters. Maybe Ramirez or DDLS turn into 1-2 of those and they hit their complete top end, but I'm not sure anyone else can be that kind of guy. Maybe Berry really gets his shit together? Maybe they luck into a top 1-3 pick in the 2025 draft and get Holliday/stud corner OF college bat, but we're circling 2028 now quickly with them Head, Morlando, C. Johnson, etc.

[fish16]

mayo to me is like a kris bryant as a younger player clone. if they can get that kind of cornerstone lineup piece that they can immediately slot in at 3b, that changes the trajectory of things very quickly. He is worth dealing luzardo given our other pitching

[lou]

nardi seems like a guy a smart team would try to buy low on. hopefully we dont cut bait or at least get the full value. he is a valuable piece. I'd like to see the following guys gone by the end of the day- Bell, Scott, DLC, Brazoban, Chargois, Rogers, and maybe luzardo if baltimore is willing to trade for him still and give full value. IF not keep him.

I'd go Scott, Bell, Chargois, Cronin, and DLC for sure. Otto can also be moved if someone just wants a bench defender.

If they get aggressive/huge over-valued deals, I think Burger, Sanchez, Luzardo, Rogers, Nardi, Bender, Brazoban, and Faucher should be available, but it might be preferable to keep them all as the 2025 team might not be half bad with retaining all the pitching. Look at Seattle. They are top 5 in pitching and bottom 5 in hitting, but contending. There is a path here for a healthy Marlins staff to do that IMO and Ramirez, Burger, Edwards, Sanchez, and DDLS is a foundation for the bats. Scott is probably adding a name to that too. I'm not selling out too hard here unless it's a can't miss situation. Like Baltimore calls and Coby is in that deal for Luzardo/Scott and more. Go for it.

[lou]

every time someone mentions the teams interested in scott, the orioles are the first one listed. it just makes too much sense. If they can combine scott and luzardo, that could be a rebuild changing move for us. Mayo, Norby, and more really changes the future outlook quick. It's kind of infuriating that they didnt trade luzardo in the offseason and that luzardo has had an injury filled season. With what kikuchi and Montas got, he could have commanded a farm system altering haul.

Yes.

Lets hope this is a first year POBO/GM yips, and Bendix grew up fast post the opening weeks losing streak. I generally think the player acquisition has been more positive than negative since then, with a really solid Jazz trade, Arraez and Puk are a little low but generally FINE as Bendix can have some liberty on picking his guys (Head, DDLS) and maybe he is right, the draft looks really good, Otto was a good waiver claim, etc.

Let's see if he can drive it home today. I would love to get two more bats for the 40 man available for 2025, with them being SS/3B/CF guys.