2024 Game Thread

[Nick]

My thought on it is he kept them because they knew the existing system, so he could keep them to help evaluate in a transition year, and now that he has a handle on what’s there, see ya…

yeah, I'd say that's what's happened.

[lou]

Fuck Eury and White could be fucking menaces. If you’re able to keep Sandy and Cabrera finally puts it together that could be 4 ace level pitchers.

There is a real chance this can happen, but it is 2027. White is probably 2 years away. I am imagining 2025 is AA, 2026 is AAA, and best case is a post S2 2026 sort of thing to ramp up for 27. Sandy's last year is 2027. That's for Noble too.

Although, I don't see that happening.


Very rough, and this is insanely difficult given performance, service time, injuries, etc. But if we expect what we expect to happen (Eury is a star, Burger, Edwards, Sanchez, Garrett, Weathers, etc. solid/slightly above average guys, some guys like Ramirez and DDLS become S2s with 2025 entries after a few weeks, etc.)..... the 2027 team could be this:

2027 - $85-95m

C - Ramirez, Mack/Banfield
1B - Burger, DDLS/Martorella/Berry
2B - Edwards, Serna/Norby
SS - ________
3B - ________, Pauley
LF - Norby/Stowers (we'll say one works out)
CF - _______, Sanoja/Mesa Jr.
RF - Sanchez

RHP - Sandy, Eury, Cabrera, Max, Noble, Mazur, A. May(I think he may be a fast bullpen riser, also who cares)
LHP - White, Garrett, Snelling, Weathers, Nardi, Fulton

+ Luzardo trade returns remember so one of those blank lines is likely a club controlled top 100 guy.


Look at that pitching theoretically!


Of that money, Sandy is $21, Giancarlo Stanton is 2nd highest paid at $10m (SMH), Eury is a notable line item $7-8+m, and then Burger, Sanchez, Cabrera, Max, Weathers, and Garrett are all like $5-6m players on average being in later arbitration, and a few others like Edwards, Nardi, DDLS, and Ramirez are in first arb/S2 land and making something around $2-3.5m. Absent some star level breakouts of course, but TBH I only think past Eury, Cabrera has that ability here if he really puts it all together into a better Luzardo/Pablo sort of breakout. Maybe Burger hits 40 HR back to back in 25/26 and that makes him insanely expensive. Everyone else is "good" without that superstar upside to me. Anyways.


Basically, if you shed Sandy, Sanchez, and Burger off this team and no one else, it drops to the mid $50ms very quickly. With that P depth, 1B depth (pick two of DDLS, Martorella, and Berry instead of Berry), and potentially Stowers or whoever works out in RF with Norby in LF, they might not need anything to replace them. Especially that those guys would also bring back 3-5 prominent players more than likely. And it's more than that as Luzardo was also moved at some point for something.


So to get to the point, White turning into that dream 70 Sweeper, 60 FB, 55 CU elite SP, it's probably with that group above and not Sandy (and Burger and Sanchez), and maybe one more of Garrett, Cabrera, Weathers, or Max is moved on top of that as they really need cheaper bats and they likely develop other relievers (Pushard? Shim? Ekness?). In a perfect world, 2027 is probably Eury, Cabrera, White, Noble/Max, and Snelling/Garrett/Weathers




And this is why I bang the Adames drum for a $22-25m contract for a few years as look at this shit in 2027, let alone 25-26. Take off Sandy, Burger, and Sanchez from that hypothetical long term depth chart and it's $55m...... and they need a SS, 3B, CF, and bench guys/relievers. Plus:

+Sandy trade returns
+Luzardo trade returns
+Burger trade returns
+Sanchez trade returns
+All the other guys like Bender/etc. who are moved
+Top 1-3 pick 2025 MLB draft more than likely, and it's going to be a 3B (Holliday) or RF (LaViolette, Cannarella)

All of a sudden, there is just an immense pool of guys in 2027 once we know what comes back in those trades (the top minors might be really good on top of this with Head, Morlando, Johnson, Shim, that IFA guy I forget which one of you mentioned Salas is likely a Marlin, etc.), so it's really malpractice to not get a franchise SS with Adames (or Kim) this offseason as it sets up a contending window and the only other expensive player on the roster through a 5-6 year deal might be Eury. i.e., the money is fine within the constraints of a Bruce budget and Eury can also be bought out similar to Hunter Greene and look what he snapped into really quick this year. Target that Cabrera buy out now, and Eury when he shows he is healthy, and assuming there is high confidence Adames holds up 4-5 years, let it rip with the understanding Sandy, Luzardo, Burger, and Sanchez must then be moved before 2027. Or Bruce allows a $120m payroll and then buckle up.

[lou]

My thought on it is he kept them because they knew the existing system, so he could keep them to help evaluate in a transition year, and now that he has a handle on what’s there, see ya…

For sure.

I mean the last regime did a stellar job with arms, but they should be fired with the immense levels of bat failures. Edwards, Sanchez, and Burger were all trades ultimately and were based on pitching. Bleday is looking better, but he looks like an average 3rd OF on a good team tops. He's OK. Puk is still better and they were right on that. Hopefully they will be right on DDLS. Watson is striking out over 30% of the time AA this year. He is whatever and bad. VVM? Salas? Burdick? L. Diaz? Devers? Misner? Scott? Jerar? Osiris? Pompey? All of these guys are bad. VMJR might be their best get and he's a 5th OF profile? Maybe Berry is ok? They developed Fortes. Brian Anderson is still the best bat they've developed last 10 years post Realmuto, Ozuna, Stanton, and Yelich.

[Nick]

There is a real chance this can happen, but it is 2027. White is probably 2 years away. I am imagining 2025 is AA, 2026 is AAA, and best case is a post S2 2026 sort of thing to ramp up for 27. Sandy's last year is 2027. That's for Noble too.

If White is on the Eury schedule (Eury's Age 18 season is very similar to White's age 19 season this year), mid-2026 seems likely.

[lou]

If White is on the Eury schedule (Eury's Age 18 season is very similar to White's age 19 season this year), mid-2026 seems likely.

It's still really young. I'd be optimistic to get one of White or Noble up July 2026, and then Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Max, Garrett, Weathers, and Snelling are there FWIW. I imagine Luzardo will be gone in particular there, but then what's the role as it's hard to think White jumps into the top 5 of that group? Coming up to throw 3-4 innings in spurts, so as to not over-throw them (agree or not, they will be careful because they value that).

These are all good problems ultimately.

Maybe there is a world Luzardo + Sanchez gets a major SS and Burger + Garrett/Weathers gets a major right handed 3B, and then this is like $70-75m in 2027 quickly for this:

C - Ramirez, Mack/Banfield
1B - DDLS, Martorella/Berry
2B - Edwards, Serna
SS - Dude for Luzardo+Sanchez
3B - Dude for Burger+Garrett/Weathers, Pauley
LF - Norby
CF - _______, Sanoja/Mesa Jr.
RF - _______ (Maybe Stowers)

SP - Sandy, Eury, White, Cabrera, Noble
BULK - Snelling, Mazur, Garrett/Weathers
RP - Max (just moving here), A. May, Maldonado/Pushard/Ekness
LP - Nardi, Fulton

I mean, they have everything here and all of these names make sense for where they are with upside and payroll.

Theoretically in 2027, maybe they would draft LaViolette or Cannarella top 2-3 in 2025 draft and that's a quick to majors bat OF ala Bleday but hopefully much better, and then pool multiple prospects together for another big time OF ala a Yelich kind trade as this payroll is $75m. Head, C. Johnson, and Santana are already two FV45+ and FV45 and if they tick up at all, it gets close to the 60-50-50 threesome Brinson, Harrison, and Diaz was. And it's not like they'd need to target someone as monstrous of Yelich anyways.

And we're done here at that point. In 2028, the only name that sheds off the above is Sandy. Only one.

Peter has done a good job with a lot of avenues in the future. It's just waiting and seeing how they perform ultimately as they don't really need to do anything with any of these guys right now. It's really just 1 top level question this offseason for me - is Adames or Kim a longterm, 5 year 3+ WAR SS. Because they can afford this within budget ($100-130m player or so if they think that. There just isn't a 3B (there is Bregman but $$$) or right handed OF that makes sense longterm, so it's really just those two.

If they don't, they can really sit tight with the 2nd level question being can they get value for Luzardo right now to make it worth it to move in the offseason, or is that a June/July trade depending on contender status.


It's hard to fathom there are 7 weeks of the season to go and getting amped up about Otto and Bride turning into bench guys. I suppose Cabrera is a must watch right now if he did in fact just click into shape. Can we at least get Norby up?

[fish16]

count me in as no longer giving a fuck who they are hiring or firing in the front office. how many different people can we bring in as an expert or savior only for them to be gone within a few years. Ocampo was the internaitonal guru from the Astros. Gone in a few years. Denbo was the scouting guru in the yankees system. turns out he's an asshole and gone in a few years. Ng is a mastermind finally getting her first shot. She gets us to the playoffs but drafts horrendously and signs horrendous free agents.

I dont care who they bring in anymore. Just get the job done and stop the constant churning.

[Nick]

It's still really young. I'd be optimistic to get one of White or Noble up July 2026, and then Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Max, Garrett, Weathers, and Snelling are there FWIW. I imagine Luzardo will be gone in particular there, but then what's the role as it's hard to think White jumps into the top 5 of that group? Coming up to throw 3-4 innings in spurts, so as to not over-throw them (agree or not, they will be careful because they value that).

Have you been watching the marlins since the end of 2023 and this entire 2024 season? Starting pitchers getting injured en masse. Teams needing to go 10 deep in starting pitching seems to be the new normal. Around the league it's mostly the same although the Marlins season was extreme. I play fantasy baseball and have 7 starters on the team at a time, and I'm having to replace an injured pitcher almost on a weekly basis.

[fish16]

Burger should not be going anywhere any time soon. there is 0 reason to trade that guy. He is cheap for years, is far and away our best power bat currently, and he is our only proven bat currently outside of edwards if you consider him to be proven. he is not going to get you anything more than he provides to us. Stop trading guys just to trade guys. He is not the perfect player obviously, but he's going over 1000 ab's with close to an .800 OPS. His 162 game average per baseball reference is a .796 OPS, 35 hr's and 87 RBI. He is a very good DH and if he becomes an average defensive 1b thats a really nice player cheap and under control for years.

[lou]

Have you been watching the marlins since the end of 2023 and this entire 2024 season? Starting pitchers getting injured en masse. Teams needing to go 10 deep in starting pitching seems to be the new normal. Around the league it's mostly the same although the Marlins season was extreme. I play fantasy baseball and have 7 starters on the team at a time, and I'm having to replace an injured pitcher almost on a weekly basis.

I am, but its a question of if your 8th and 9th SP in a few years are projecting to be (much) better than your 4th and 5th position players, you gotta spread the love as you're getting more impact from having a guy to use more. You get it. The fallback to this is having good inventory arms (Bellozo? Monteverde?) as plus AAAA options in AAA, or signing the "Michael Lorenzen" guy every. fucking. year. as all of us want to lift the floor of those 100+ innings they never seem to have. Although they may that if everything goes right by summer 2026 and especially 2027.


Like look at this. This is theoretically 11 SP without Luzardo and one of Garrett/Weathers. Half of them could be nothing ya know and all of a sudden the bulks, Max, May, and Fulton could all rise up here into more prominent roles, etc. And Bendix probably has a good bullpen handle on top of this as Faucher, Cronin, and others do have control year and are just kicked. I feel this is being respectful of the "you need 10 SP" (I'd say 8 good ones plus some Bellozos in AAA, but let's not quib), but using 2 of the current guys (this is probably Luzardo and Garrett IMO) for bats. This team is bananas on paper for $75m in 2027, understanding that's likely two top 100 guys in the bolds, the CF/RF might be pick # 1-3 in 2025 draft, and they do have money as this is $75m and Sandy and Stanton (sigh) both shed off payroll eventually which pays for everyone's arbitration raises, so this is constant payroll for years. That's the key - this is mapped out on a name/prospect status level for years with the total haul they got.


C - Ramirez, Mack/Banfield
1B - DDLS, Martorella/Berry
2B - Edwards, Serna
SS - Dude for Luzardo+Sanchez
3B - Dude for Burger+Garrett/Weathers, Pauley
LF - Norby
CF - _______, Sanoja/Mesa Jr.
RF - _______ (Maybe Stowers)

SP - Sandy, Eury, White, Cabrera, Noble
BULK - Snelling, Mazur, Garrett/Weathers
RP - Max (just moving here), A. May, Maldonado/Pushard/Ekness
LP - Nardi, Fulton


I'm just saying, I think this is going to be the ultimate plan. And if Adames/Kim is viewed as a long term SS and Bruce allows it? Just pop that Luzardo trade over to CF/RF and we're probably looking at LaViolette or Cannarella in the 2025 draft to round it out and that's it. The two blank lines are Adames/Kim and a FV55 OF. Like holy shit? The lineup is FV50, 45+, 45, 45, 45+/50, Adames/Kim, probably a 50, 40+ or better for Norby, probably another 50, another 55/50.... and you get to the rotation and its C50+y Young, 60, 55/50, 50 + ace upside with Cabrera, 55/50, your bulks might be all 45s or better, your closer is a 50, and more 45/40+ in bullpen. This is the Rays. This looks like a Rays team with the pedigree. With their minors having Head, Santana, Johnson, Morlando, this Salas IFA guy (probably), etc.

And this is all under $100m and payroll constant through early 2030s.


These guys of course have to work out and not get hurt, but you still gotta map the names and these guys will get their shots absent disasters. And practically, this might be 3 more moves and then just stopgaps - Adames/Kim/3B/CF, trading Luzardo, and trading Garrett, and potentially trading Burger and Sanchez on top to clear out money for Adames/Kim/FA 3B-CF stud and keeping Sandy all the way. Peter may legitimately be 3 fairly significant moves from tieing it all together to his credit, and he has the ammo in SP and objectively low payroll to do it.

TBH, it's very exciting to see a cohesive plan and then when the time comes, we can only hope Bruce lets them sign that luxury fucking upgrade to take them too the moon. They have a lot of options moving forward, so this really just goes back to the only two things that really matter between now and spring training are (1) Is Adames and Kim a longterm SS they believe in, and (2) no new major injuries for the love of god. Even Morlando is fucking hurt now. They can let everything else fall into place in due course after that more than likely.

[lou]

Burger should not be going anywhere any time soon. there is 0 reason to trade that guy. He is cheap for years, is far and away our best power bat currently, and he is our only proven bat currently outside of edwards if you consider him to be proven. he is not going to get you anything more than he provides to us. Stop trading guys just to trade guys. He is not the perfect player obviously, but he's going over 1000 ab's with close to an .800 OPS. His 162 game average per baseball reference is a .796 OPS, 35 hr's and 87 RBI. He is a very good DH and if he becomes an average defensive 1b thats a really nice player cheap and under control for years.

The mentions of Burger are based on 2027 salary impacting them keeping Sandy in 2027 ($21m, not cheap), or, if they do splurge on Adames/Kim this offseason (which is likely a floor $18+m player in 2027), something will have to give there (because Bruce is a cheap asshole) and Burger/Sanchez may have to be deadline 26 or offseason 27 sacrifices. They'll scale up to $6m or so by then minimum, which is not a lot of money yes I agree with you, but given potential incoming options (DDLS, Martorella, Berry, etc.), or other cheaper ones like Stowers, they probably eventually scale off the team as that money can be used for something else with suitable incoming prospects. Remember Burger is 28 right now too. He may completely fall apart as he ages similar to Trumbo, C. Davis, etc. types, so there may be some real incentive to move him while performing well, as the bottom could just drop out age 31 season (2027) quickly. They need to avoid Trumbo 2017 if they can. That's all I am saying here. Burger is wonderful when he is healthy which clearly he is right now again, but this is a classic Rays type analysis where they trade guys and immediately suck elsewhere.

He should go nowhere for the time being for sure. I don't think anyone disagrees, absent someone is drunk and just wants to give Peter Kyle Teel for him or something wild in the offseason. He becomes expendable when two of DDLS, Martorella, and Berry turn into players, and Ramirez too if he sheds of C and joins that mix. Or, they just have to make a tough choice on whether to keep a bat or arm in 2027 because payroll could be dicey depending on what they do, etc.

I understand your point that this is too far away to anticipate a response and enjoy Burger now, but this absolutely matters IMO as what to expect payroll wise if they are thinking Adames/Kim or Eury or Cabrera or Max extensions, which all contribute to the bottom line of what Bruce will approve in future years.

My overall point in all of this rambling is - they have money with Bruce's payroll and don't really have to trade guys to trade guys anymore, while still being able to afford an Adames/Kim level contract for SS. But a few will have to be sacrificed eventually, and big picture, that is probably Luzardo, Sanchez, Burger, and Garrett deadline 25 through offseason 27, or maybe Sandy is moved and multiple are kept a year longer as that makes sense based on who worked out and didn't. The other point - a lot of options. Is Adames/Kim a longterm SS and if they are, fucking sign them, and stay healthy. That's all I care about until April pretty much.

*I also care about extending E. Cabrera for 5+ years with options. So that's a third thing. TLDR - FA SS? Stay healthy. Cabrera extension.

[lou]

Josh Bell has a 1.000 OPS for Arizona. What a wild player to shit the bed for 100 games 2 years in a row, and then get traded and become completely awesome again.

[Nick]

Victor Robles would be a solid pickup in Free Agency if they spend any money. Pair him with Sanchez, play a lot of CF.

Have 2025 be:

1. Edwards SS
2. Burger 1B
3. Sanchez/Robles RF
4. DDLS DH
5. Norby 2B/3B
6. Stowers LF
7. Ramirez C
8. VM Jr./Robles CF
9. Sanoja 2B/3B

Team would be awful defensively outside of CF. Probably be a lot of growing pains with young guys, but it'd be a lot of fun to watch these guys grow together.

Bench:
Fortes
Otto Lopez
Dane Myers

I've said it before Dane Myers fucked up so bad. Would love to see them try him at 3B again, which would probably be happening right now.

[Nick]

Also, incoming lou post analyzing how many days the guys in the above lineup would have to wait to be called up for optimal service time.

[fish16]

Victor Robles would be a solid pickup in Free Agency if they spend any money. Pair him with Sanchez, play a lot of CF.

Have 2025 be:

1. Edwards SS
2. Burger 1B
3. Sanchez/Robles RF
4. DDLS DH
5. Norby 2B/3B
6. Stowers LF
7. Ramirez C
8. VM Jr./Robles CF
9. Sanoja 2B/3B

Team would be awful defensively outside of CF. Probably be a lot of growing pains with young guys, but it'd be a lot of fun to watch these guys grow together.

Bench:
Fortes
Otto Lopez
Dane Myers

I've said it before Dane Myers fucked up so bad. Would love to see them try him at 3B again, which would probably be happening right now.

he literally just signed a 2 year extension with the mariners. he would have been a better claim than pache.

[fish16]

i hate to break it to anyone, but we are not signing willy adames or any other major free agent. it's just not going to happen. continuing to do these 9 paragraph posts with projections where we sign a free agent to a 20 million per year deal is just a waste of everyones time. We do this literally every fucking year.