2024 Game Thread

[Nick]

he literally just signed a 2 year extension with the mariners. he would have been a better claim than pache.

Welp.

Damn you MLBTRs.

[Nick]

Anyway, my thought is Sanchez is worth holding onto long term, and not trading him unless some other team is stupid. Just pair the guy with a righthanded bat that smashes lefties. I mean maybe the answer is simply Sanchez/Myers, straight platoon in RF. I think that'd be fine. So at least you can say you have 3/9 positions figured out going into 2025.

[Nick]

SSS but Myers has an .808 OPS against lefties in 72 major league ABs.

[Namaste]

i hate to break it to anyone, but we are not signing willy adames or any other major free agent. it's just not going to happen. continuing to do these 9 paragraph posts with projections where we sign a free agent to a 20 million per year deal is just a waste of everyones time. We do this literally every fucking year.

Yeah no way Wily Adames would want to come live in a beautiful high rise in Brickell, make gobs of cash (in a state with no income tax) while playing for a team that will likely be very good in 2026.

[Nick]

fish16 is wrong that we've poisoned the entire market on free agents, and nobody will come here. Players will come here if we offer them more money than the other 29 teams. He's right that it's very unlikely we do that for any significant free agent.

[fish16]

Yeah no way Wily Adames would want to come live in a beautiful high rise in Brickell, make gobs of cash (in a state with no income tax) while playing for a team that will likely be very good in 2026.

1. we are the second worst team in the league currently. to say that we will likely be very good in 2026 based off hypothetical depth charts that you were also using 2 years ago to justify us being very good this year and next year is laughable.

2. I never said he wouldnt want to play here. I said we arent signing anyone to a 20 million contract.

Also, this franchise is not going to A) win a bidding war against one of the higher spending teams in the league, and B) this franchise as an organization itself is not appealing to big time free agents. We are one of the worst ownership groups in sports. It's just reality. And that stuff matters. Whether you want to acknowledge it or not.

Players will of course take money. But when we will 100% never outbid one of these other high profile teams, and we arent winning the bidding for a players services when all else is equal. If we pay adames well above his market value, yes he will probably sign here, and then we will be stuck with an awful contract. That is the ramifications of being a shitty overall organization playing in front of 8000 fans a night.

[fish16]

fish16 is wrong that we've poisoned the entire market on free agents, and nobody will come here. Players will come here if we offer them more money than the other 29 teams. He's right that it's very unlikely we do that for any significant free agent.

correct. Also, paying guys well above their market value is flatly a bad idea unless we plan on greatly increasing the payroll moving forward, which of course they wont.

[lou]

Also, incoming lou post analyzing how many days the guys in the above lineup would have to wait to be called up for optimal service time.

4. DDLS DH ----> 15 days into next season, and mid June for S2 status
5. Norby 2B/3B ---> 28 days into next season, and late June for S2 status
7. Ramirez C ----> 15 days into next season, and mid June for S2 status
9. Sanoja 2B/3B ----> 15 days into next season, and mid June for S2 status

For me, I would say:

DDLS ---> Wait till mid April
Norby ---> Call up before September. Don't need to worry about an extra year after 30 for a non-defender
Ramirez ---> Not sure, but it's mid April or mid June depending on if he can catch and needs work there
Sanoja ---> Wait till mid April

[lou]

fish16 is wrong that we've poisoned the entire market on free agents, and nobody will come here. Players will come here if we offer them more money than the other 29 teams. He's right that it's very unlikely we do that for any significant free agent.

Refer to post that only these teams might be interested in an expensive SS league-wide. Adames, Kim, and Rojas is the pool of players, and then no ones (Rosario, T. Anderson, Segura is actually back with Baltimore now and who knows, etc.). Maybe T. Estrada isn't tendered arbitration?



Absolutely without question

Miami (Absolutely fucking nothing organization wide outside low A ball)


Absolutely, but money is an issue

Dodgers (They could really really use a longterm SS but have $240m+ on the books already so is Adames the fit here? Do they Mookie/Lux this in a platoon? Keep Rojas who is pretty good and cheap? Trade young bats for a different SS?. I have a hard time seeing Adames here, maybe Kim as Kim seems like he'd want to stay on the west coast to be closer to home)


Maybe

Detroit (but Baez on the books and is Adames the guy they need now? Likely wait a year for FA money as Jobe, Jung, Clark, and others really land)

Atlanta (but Strider hurt and they need pitching. They can hit. And have Nacho Alvarez coming. It's a maybe, but arms are needed more. Arcia is also likely fine)

Padres (but Boegarts, Merrill, Machado, others. They could retain Kim for sure to opt for his defense wherever)

Giants (but they have Fitzgerald, Luciano, and Matt Chapman makes a lot of sense to resign as he's awesome there)



That's it. Anyone else is trading their SS, and then signing one as an alternative, so that just makes trade inventory for Miami as someone interesting is then available. TBH it's kind of a perfect storm as the other 4 spend money, but they need other things more so this falls into the situation where Miami can spend the most as the others may throw out deals as they like him, but not love him and need him. I suppose teams could look at Kim at 2B and push their SS to 2B/3B to make room for Adames, but like that plays into is a team out-spending the Marlins for an imperfect situation? Look at Chapman, Bellinger, Snell, and Montgomery. Adames could easily fall into that free agency bucket and get stuck heading to FA again, or the Marlins can get him that $100-120m deal, living in Miami (as a Dominican), on an ascending team. He ain't passing that up. I don't see anyone except Miami throwing that deal, and I don't think it's an overpay as Adames is a high floor defender and played at a 3 WAR pace for 7 seasons now? Miami has the most incentive and money to give any of them easily - and thats within Bruce budgets.


Fish16 can say weird stuff like "we are the second worst team in the league currently." Yea no shit - Sandy, Luzardo, Eury, Garrett, and Weathers are currently hurt. No team in baseball can have 800+ innings hurt and survive. This team is going to radically ascend when healthy, but it's probably not 2025 with Eury out, SP coming off injuries, and all the new bats getting feet wet. Adames/Kim are the best FA they can sign 2025-2027 as they kind of have everything else to some extent except another 3B and right handed CF (those are the top prospects in 2025 draft I might add), so this is really a jump in the pool a year early as no one else makes sense because you'd be signing likely an arm to trade arms for more bats and what are we then doing as FA bats are safer investments than arms so just sign the bat.


Just look at the big picture. They got multiple 2B prospects (Serna, drafted Johnson), 3B prospects (Pauley, Lara), multiple OF prospects (Head, Marsee, Pintar, drafted Morlando), multiple SP candidates (Snelling, Mazur, Shim, drafted May), multiple bat first 1B/DH types (DDLS, Martorella, maybe Ramirez), Ramirez is obviously a C and they are getting a great Mack performance this year, and ignored their # 1 issue top to bottom in the organization at SS in literally every move. I'll be shocked if something major isn't coming here, maybe it's a Luzardo trade for Brooks Lee or whatever, but I don't know how you don't make Adames or Kim that move with what you have and what the league has. Detroit is probably the only threat for Adames as the Dodgers will likely prefer Kim. So they have to beat Detroit and have a geographic advantage as Atlanta, San Diego, and San Fran have better FA targets? And if the Dodgers go Rojas/cheap because their payroll is massive... So the Marlins get Adames or Kim as no one else is spending money? This is a perfect storm brewing for Miami to not cheap out based on pretty much every angle.

[lou]

correct. Also, paying guys well above their market value is flatly a bad idea unless we plan on greatly increasing the payroll moving forward, which of course they wont.

No one is saying pay Adames $35m a year.

Say.... 5/$110m for ages 29-33 and once you trade Sandy or don't resign him, only Eury will be expensive the later end of those 5 years? And you can buy him out in 2025 once he shows he's back. So the money is irrelevant even for Bruce budgets? The last year may not look great as he has hit/whiff tool issue longterm, but when is it time to win now with a win now move and the pitching is absolutely ready by 2026. I think the org should do this for 2026-2028 as they have all the pitchers together those years and no time to develop a SS in a year. Worry about 2029 in 2029.

Adames is 81st percentile hitter and defender right now to mention - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb

I mean Carl Crawford fell the fuck apart when he left Tampa and those things happen and would be unfortunate, but every box gets checked here. It's likely lower league interest. He's in his prime. He's Dominican and Miami is a natural culture fit. Even if he has to move off SS in year 4 of that deal, he can play at 3B. which they also don't have. Team payroll is low. Adames and Kim are not going to Javy Baez us into swing oblivion IMO but could be wrong.

If LAD and DET come in 6/$150m, it's no thanks and call up Rojas for 1 year to stopgap or trade an arm for one. But I think there are many scenarios Adames and Kim end up on Miami in the $90-120m range as we joke about the can being kicked, but all the pitching (except Luzardo) lands (or enough of it) by summer 2026 or so. So its 2026. 2026 is circled at minimum. And they need the 3 bats - could easily be Adames/Kim, Luzardo trade, and Garrett/Burger/Sanchez trades to bring those in.

[fish16]

Refer to post that only these teams might be interested in an expensive SS league-wide. Adames, Kim, and Rojas is the pool of players, and then no ones (Rosario, T. Anderson, Segura is actually back with Baltimore now and who knows, etc.). Maybe T. Estrada isn't tendered arbitration?



Absolutely without question

Miami (Absolutely fucking nothing organization wide outside low A ball)


Absolutely, but money is an issue

Dodgers (They could really really use a longterm SS but have $240m+ on the books already so is Adames the fit here? Do they Mookie/Lux this in a platoon? Keep Rojas who is pretty good and cheap? Trade young bats for a different SS?. I have a hard time seeing Adames here, maybe Kim as Kim seems like he'd want to stay on the west coast to be closer to home)


Maybe

Detroit (but Baez on the books and is Adames the guy they need now? Likely wait a year for FA money as Jobe, Jung, Clark, and others really land)

Atlanta (but Strider hurt and they need pitching. They can hit. And have Nacho Alvarez coming. It's a maybe, but arms are needed more. Arcia is also likely fine)

Padres (but Boegarts, Merrill, Machado, others. They could retain Kim for sure to opt for his defense wherever)

Giants (but they have Fitzgerald, Luciano, and Matt Chapman makes a lot of sense to resign as he's awesome there)



That's it. Anyone else is trading their SS, and then signing one as an alternative, so that just makes trade inventory for Miami as someone interesting is then available. TBH it's kind of a perfect storm as the other 4 spend money, but they need other things more so this falls into the situation where Miami can spend the most as the others may throw out deals as they like him, but not love him and need him. I suppose teams could look at Kim at 2B and push their SS to 2B/3B to make room for Adames, but like that plays into is a team out-spending the Marlins for an imperfect situation? Look at Chapman, Bellinger, Snell, and Montgomery. Adames could easily fall into that free agency bucket and get stuck heading to FA again, or the Marlins can get him that $100-120m deal, living in Miami (as a Dominican), on an ascending team. He ain't passing that up. I don't see anyone except Miami throwing that deal, and I don't think it's an overpay as Adames is a high floor defender and played at a 3 WAR pace for 7 seasons now? Miami has the most incentive and money to give any of them easily - and thats within Bruce budgets.


Fish16 can say weird stuff like "we are the second worst team in the league currently." Yea no shit - Sandy, Luzardo, Eury, Garrett, and Weathers are currently hurt. No team in baseball can have 800+ innings hurt and survive. This team is going to radically ascend when healthy, but it's probably not 2025 with Eury out, SP coming off injuries, and all the new bats getting feet wet. Adames/Kim are the best FA they can sign 2025-2027 as they kind of have everything else to some extent except another 3B and right handed CF (those are the top prospects in 2025 draft I might add), so this is really a jump in the pool a year early as no one else makes sense because you'd be signing likely an arm to trade arms for more bats and what are we then doing as FA bats are safer investments than arms so just sign the bat.


Just look at the big picture. They got multiple 2B prospects (Serna, drafted Johnson), 3B prospects (Pauley, Lara), multiple OF prospects (Head, Marsee, Pintar, drafted Morlando), multiple SP candidates (Snelling, Mazur, Shim, drafted May), multiple bat first 1B/DH types (DDLS, Martorella, maybe Ramirez), Ramirez is obviously a C and they are getting a great Mack performance this year, and ignored their # 1 issue top to bottom in the organization at SS in literally every move. I'll be shocked if something major isn't coming here, maybe it's a Luzardo trade for Brooks Lee or whatever, but I don't know how you don't make Adames or Kim that move with what you have and what the league has. Detroit is probably the only threat for Adames as the Dodgers will likely prefer Kim. So they have to beat Detroit and have a geographic advantage as Atlanta, San Diego, and San Fran have better FA targets? And if the Dodgers go Rojas/cheap because their payroll is massive... So the Marlins get Adames or Kim as no one else is spending money? This is a perfect storm brewing for Miami to not cheap out based on pretty much every angle.

my point is that consistently posting a theoretical depth chart for 2 years from now is what we have been doing for close to 8 fucking years. Yes, we have pitching injuries. We have pitching injuries every fucking year. Every team does. To say that adames will sign here because we will be, in namaste's words, "likely a very good team in 2026" is not only absurd because these players care more about the money and the organization than what the team will look like in 2 years, but it is also completely ignorant to the fact that we have been saying that about this team literally every single year since 2019 about how good we will be in 2 years. It's like we do the same thing towards the end of every season when we are completely out of it with no reflection upon the fact that no one ever wants to sign here, nor does this ownership intend on ever spending that kind of money any time soon.

[fish16]

No one is saying pay Adames $35m a year.

Say.... 5/$110m for ages 29-33 and once you trade Sandy or don't resign him, only Eury will be expensive the later end of those 5 years? And you can buy him out in 2025 once he shows he's back. So the money is irrelevant even for Bruce budgets? The last year may not look great as he has hit/whiff tool issue longterm, but when is it time to win now with a win now move and the pitching is absolutely ready by 2026. I think the org should do this for 2026-2028 as they have all the pitchers together those years and no time to develop a SS in a year. Worry about 2029 in 2029.

Adames is 81st percentile hitter and defender right now to mention - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb

I mean Carl Crawford fell the fuck apart when he left Tampa and those things happen and would be unfortunate, but every box gets checked here. It's likely lower league interest. He's in his prime. He's Dominican and Miami is a natural culture fit. Even if he has to move off SS in year 4 of that deal, he can play at 3B. which they also don't have. Team payroll is low. Adames and Kim are not going to Javy Baez us into swing oblivion IMO but could be wrong.

If LAD and DET come in 6/$150m, it's no thanks and call up Rojas for 1 year to stopgap or trade an arm for one. But I think there are many scenarios Adames and Kim end up on Miami in the $90-120m range as we joke about the can being kicked, but all the pitching (except Luzardo) lands (or enough of it) by summer 2026 or so. So its 2026. 2026 is circled at minimum. And they need the 3 bats - could easily be Adames/Kim, Luzardo trade, and Garrett/Burger/Sanchez trades to bring those in.

5/110 is not getting us adames over other offers. That's around what he will get from other teams, and those other teams will be more appealing than this franchise. Also, not even bringing up other teams offers- WE. ARE. NOT. SPENDING. THAT. KIND. OF. MONEY. How many years can you continue to do this with the "werth signing" before you realize it will never happen?

[fish16]

also, i like adames as a player, but his age 29-34 seasons would be a really bad contract if he's getting 20+ million, at least from a team with a payroll as low as ours. He's a good hitter but nothing special. he's never had an .800 OPS in a season where he has played 100 games. If he doesnt get over .800 OPS by the end of the year, it will be 3 straight years of mid .700's OPS which is good, but not worth it for this team to spend over 20 million on. he's a career .763 OPS hitter with much of his value being defensive. 20 million can be much more efficiently allocated elsewhere if we are going to spend it at all.

[Todd]

Excited to see Karson Millbrandt live

[Nick]

Gosh, Burger is en fuego.