2024 Game Thread

[lou]

DDLS is 21, they might defer the service time for him based on his age and not call him up now. You get a full year of service time for him when he is 28 years old if you call him up game 14 of the season next year, a back to back home series against Wash/Ari. This seems like it will happen now that I think about it. It makes sense for his age to just keep him in the minors this year, go to the AFL or whatever, and tell him we'll still get you 500 PA but it ain't opening day. Ramirez is in this same boat BTW, but waiting till game 14 next year preserves his age 29 year old season. My guess is, the Marlins claim "they are working on their defense." No one will buy it, but it is what it is.

Norby was called up for a few earlier, so you kick him another 12 or 14 days from that so it's April 25th or something quickly for Norby. He's gotta come up in a few weeks IMO. 2-3 weeks max here for me.


It's gonna be something like this opening day

Fortes, Banfield
Burger
Edwards, Otto
New SS
New 3B
Sanchez, Norby
New CF, Mesa Jr./Sanoja
Stowers, Dane

And game 14

Ramirez, Fortes
Burger, DDLS
Edwards, Otto
New SS
New 3B
Sanchez, Norby
New CF, Mesa Jr./Sanoja
Stowers/Dane

At some point in the year, Sanoja or Mesa Jr get optioned down 15 days and that then kicks their time too. So overall, Ramirez, DDLS, Mesa Jr., and Sanoja all have a captured "7th" season.


The good news here once you stop groaning, I don't see the opportunity with pitchers. They already did this with Eury, Garrett, Cabrera, Garrett, and Weathers, so it's letting everyone rip. The most that would happen here is Snelling is after the ASB and I imagine that happens anyways and Mazur might be more into August, and I imagine that happens anyways too to work their stuff. It sounds like they need some work.


This is actually a canary in the coalmine about 2025 expectations. DDLS, Ramirez, and Sanoja are probably ready to be tried out right now. So what's more important, the feet wet for next year OR preserving..... 2032. If they call them up now, that's a really bold statement we think we're ready in 2025 and let's get the squad up to speed.


I know, don't yell at me. This is just the days analysis. My guess - defer, defer, defer, defer, but we'll see Norby shortly.

[lou]

They claimed a reliever with options - McMillion - https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jo...ts?position=P-


Since I have gone pitching crazy lately, this may be the best STUFF profile yet - 65 FB, 60 SL, 30 CTRL. First 30! They even gave Roddery a 40 on CTRL. Jesus. So this guy has awesome stuff but can't hit the barn. Love that AAA 7 BB/9 THIS season at 26 years old.

[Namaste]

Jerar Encarnacion both called up today. Fun.
.

BIG DOG is OPS'ing over 1.000 down there but he's always kind of done that, right?

[lou]

BIG DOG is OPS'ing over 1.000 down there but he's always kind of done that, right?

He's kind of always done that, but he's had a "Quad AAAA" guy resurgence from what I can tell so it's a good flier for them. .420 BABIP in AAA and blitzing the Mexican league doesn't scream "asset".... but his K rate has improved from 38.8% to 24% this year in AAA so that may be some hope.

I'll take him for sure over Brinson, Harrison, Scott, Sierra, VVM, Scott, Moran, Dominguez, and Diaz. Not sure about Misner yet as Misner can still play defense. Fucking rays.

Sad.

[Namaste]

Kinda wild that no team signed Zack Greinke this year.

19 K's away from 3000. 4.42 xFIP last year (1.1 WAR).

I feel like 3000 K's is marketable. I also feel like almost evety team will have a starter this year that will be worse than a 1 WAR (or 4.42 xFIP)

[lou]

And a hat tip to Todd who called out Bellozzo as passing his own eyeball test on his early starts - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...r-pitching-mlb

It is an extremely extremely small sample size, but the Marlins introduced a cutter with him and it is dominating the 55 times he has thrown it. He is not flashing a 2nd good pitch and doesn't throw hard..... but there might be something here as his other pitches are just bad not getting blasted like others (for instance, the league bats like Judge against Roddery's 4 seamer which is hilarious, but the slider is good). One potentially above average pitch (and FG notes say he has a good change and nothing else) and 3 acceptably bad ones is something to work off of. At minimum, he might be a good callup arm for 50-75 IP next year as a SP injury replacement and quicker hooks. A teams 7th SP so to speak.

The top end comparable here is something like Lugo. Yes he is out of his mind right now for sure, but he's throwing a TON of pitches so no one knows what is coming and it's ultimately deception. Lugo has a real good curveball and slurve and an average slider, (i.e. all offspeed pitches are his money pitches and you can't live on those without spotting the fast ones) and then a below average FB, sinker, and cutter. Then he has some other shit he throws 2-3 times a game just to further confuse. If the Marlins can turn the Bellozzo cutter and changeup into viable "good not great" pitches, and then get him throwing 3 more "acceptable bad" pitches that all do different things, it starts building into the profile of can this guy actually make it as a back rotation starter or bulk reliever.

This is probably an inventory arm, but I agree with Todd - he ain't half bad with some hope. If the changeup improves a little which is what the scouting suggests, and the cutter stays good (its certainly overachieving right now), if he can main the acceptable bad four seamer and sweeper, and they might be tinkering with a curveball, maybe he becomes a kitchen sink back end SP that is throwing 5 pitches and uses the good offspeed pitches and confusion to survive.

This is a solid return for Amaya if nothing more, who sucks in AAA and appears to not be a bench IF who will hit lefties a little.



I'm going to add him to my SP map I have been updating as I'm a crazy person. This is a compliment to him.


SP/Ace Eury --- > Eury
SP/Ace Sandy --- > ______
SP/3 Luzardo --- > Noble

SP3/BULK SP Cabrera --- > ______
SP3/BULK SP Max ----> _____ (Maybe Shim)

BULK SP/BULK RP Garrett ---> White/Fulton/A. May (Maybe Shim)
BULK SP/BULK RP Weathers ---> Above, and Mazur/Snelling (Maybe Munoz, Bellozzo)

HL RP RHP _____ (Bender) ---> ______ (Maybe Shim, Ekness, Munoz)
HL RP RHP _____ (Faucher) ---> _______ (Maybe A. May and above)
HL RP LHP Nardi ---> White/Fulton

RP RHP Cronin ---> _______ (Maybe Shim, Ekness, Munoz, May, Mazur)
RP RHP Maldonado ---> (Maybe Millbrandt, Pushard, Bellozzo, Miller, and above)
RP LHP _______ ---> ______/Snelling’s absolute floor (Maybe Simpson)


And just to note:

Ace/SP3 - Let them rip
SP3/Bulk - Guys you might let go 3rd time through lineup or turn into 3s or better in a perfect world
Bulk SP/RP - These are normally 2 times through guys on a good team absent more upside appearing. SP4s/SP5s
HL - High leverage
Stuff - Shim, Ekness, Munoz have crazy "stuff" if they can control it. This is a highest upside chart, not an indication a safe prospect

[Todd]

My bold prediction. Alcantra is healthy for ST next year and he gets moved for a monster package from the Red Sox that brings back Marcelo Mayer, Chase Meidroth, and others.

[Namaste]

Again, I don't see that as a bold prediction. Most if us think he'll be moved in 2025 if healthy. Let's call it a prediction.

[sports24/7]

Apparently DDLS wasn't just producing because he was playing in Reno. He hit another HR today. This one 460 feet.

[Todd]

Again, I don't see that as a bold prediction. Most if us think he'll be moved in 2025 if healthy. Let's call it a prediction.

The bold prediction is that particular package.

[Namaste]

The bold prediction is that particular package.

Understood.

Lee Stone would be proud. I hope we get Mayer too somehow

[sports24/7]

The bold prediction is that particular package.

I actually think that package is light for Sandy. I’d hope they’d get Mayer and Teel if they’re giving up a legitimate ace one a very reasonable contract.

[Todd]

I actually think that package is light for Sandy. I’d hope they’d get Mayer and Teel if they’re giving up a legitimate ace one a very reasonable contract.

Those were just the headliners. Mayer is a top 5 prospect in baseball tho

[lou]

They need to extend Cabrera ASAP

[Namaste]

3 hits, 2 walks, 8 K's, no ERs