2024 Game Thread

[lou]

be the orioles- who in 4 consecutive years before the lottery was implemented, bottomed out and took rutschman, holliday, cowser, and kjerstad with 2 #1 overall picks, a #2 pick, and a number 5 pick, plus getting gunnar henderson in the 2nd round, and jordan westburg with the 30th overall pick.

Good luck with that long term strategy not only picking the right players, but getting that high in the draft at all with the new lottery. a plan that is destined to fail from the start.

Everyone agrees with you.

But I would tick the destined to fail lower as Eury, Garrett, Max, Weathers, Cabrera, Noble, and White are presumably going to be together for 4+ years and I would bet all 7 of them are on the MLB roster summer 2026, and it could get interesting fast. Maybe May and Fulton get added to that too, as well as RP like Nardi and Cronin hold up and kept? And imagine if they surprise if the keep Sandy or extend Luzardo, Puk, or Rogers? For instance, look at the Pirates who have collectively 3.9 WAR (!!!) from all of their position players, but Skenes, Keller, Jones, and a variety of other solid RP is keeping them .500. Are they a little lucky? Absolutely, but having a borderline top 10 pitching staff will keep you in it for magical runs (see Marlins 2023 1 run luck), and I'm willing to bet the Marlins guys are collectively better than the Pittsburgh guys longterm. (And I think Skenes is the best right hander since Fernandez and if everyone is checked out on baseball because of the Marlins should really pop in to see that guy as he is incredible beyond words, but the overall depth of the next wave of guys after Skenes/Eury *should* be in the Marlins favor IMO.). They gotta just get some bats to join this arm clump circa 26-28. And frankly, they do have the ability to do this with trading most of Sandy, Luzardo, Jazz, Rogers, Puk, Burger, Sanchez, DLC, etc. which should net 10+ bats and 3-5 of them should be top 100 or borderline very close quality + open payroll. And to address but they never spend payroll, if they moved those guys payroll would drop under $40m projections in 2026 and at minimum, I think we all agree they will spend more than that so there will be money for them to do something.

Should any of this be happening at these payroll level? Absolutely not. Should we be checked out as a fan base? Absolutely. But we can also still be absolutely interested in seeing what happens. For me, I still truly believe they have the arms and agree with Namaste they are *really* fucking hurt right now. This injury luck can't be forever. The idea your top 5 SP - including a Cy Young winner and universal # 1 SP prospect in baseball for a time - are all hurt and out is just bananas.

[lou]

Also, I think this is an interesting development. Since 5/25 (yes a cherry picked date when he started hitting a little):

J. Berry - 129 PA, .298/.380/.500 (.880) (.345 BABIP), 9% BB, 18% K, 4 HR (10 more XBH), 5 SB (1 CS)

Fingers crossed here. This is a check back in late August for me to see if he gets a good 250 PA sample size.

[fish16]

i find the way the mlb draft works to be nonsensical and overcomplicated for no reason. why not just give each pick a value, if the player doesnt want that amount, they go to college and the team gets a compensatory pick in that slot the next draft. This whole thing where you are very often not taking the best available player in round 1 to take a better player in round 2 is just dumb.

between that and the service time rules that incentivize keeping your best prospects down as long as possible, the sport cant get out of it's own way.

[sports24/7]

i find the way the mlb draft works to be nonsensical and overcomplicated for no reason. why not just give each pick a value, if the player doesnt want that amount, they go to college and the team gets a compensatory pick in that slot the next draft. This whole thing where you are very often not taking the best available player in round 1 to take a better player in round 2 is just dumb.

between that and the service time rules that incentivize keeping your best prospects down as long as possible, the sport cant get out of it's own way.

Because it's collectively bargained. The system used to be that they could pay these guys whatever they wanted, which obviously the MLBPA loves, but greatly benefits the clubs with more money. It's a weird system for sure, but I think it makes things interesting, actually. It adds another strategy to the process, and it actually works out quite often. The MLB draft is such a crap shoot that a team can take an underslot guy who is universally seen as a lesser prospect than the big time guy asking for over slot, and the "lesser" player ends up being the far better player. And that type of thing isn't even an outlier situation.

I do think teams should be able to trade picks, but I also kind of understand why they don't allow that either save for comp picks.

[sports24/7]

Carter is a FV45 on Fangraphs tied with players 15-32 overall. i.e., he would fall into the range of their 1st round pick. Pipeline had him at 40.

Morlando a FV40+, tied with players 33-47, i.e. he is a very good 2nd round pick. Pipeline had him at 43.

May they have as a FV40, players 48-79, i.e. he is a 2nd round pick once all the comp picks are added. Pipeline had him at 82.


You hit the nail on the head - the MLB draft is bizarre with how teams use gamesmanship for underslot here for overslot there. It's how they got White last year TBH. I think you have to view this as a whole and not where you get someone. Value wise seeing this, Carter seems like a little reach for a 1st rounder but really not much of a reach given the crapshoot of MLB drafting, Morlando a good 2nd rounder, and May was drafted about where he should. Big picture, this was a well executed draft plan value wise. Doesn't mean it will work out, but you can see the wheels spinning and we have to start somewhere from this terrible offseason.

I read somewhere (can't find link) they are going to work out Morlando at CF because they think he's really athletic. This might some fluff like Bleday getting some time in CF or Edwards at SS, but just an interesting note.

No problems with this one. Hopefully some gold mining occurs next few picks.

Right. That's how the draft has to be viewed, and it's why you see some of the more well-regarded prospect people like Jim Callis from MLB Pipeline, Carlos Collazo from BA, Kiley McDaniel from ESPN, and Fangraphs saying good things about what Miami did on day 1. What they did with their first two picks is certainly a little more risky (although the "safe" route isn't really safe in the draft as we've seen with Berry), but for a bad system that needs impact bats, they gave themselves two cracks at it (and maybe more depending on what happens today) instead of one. Then, with their 3rd pick, they went a safer route, but took a guy who is also fairly intriguing, who probably has a fairly high floor as a RP if it doesn't work out the way you want as a SP. Who knows how it will play out, but honestly, the way the board fell to them, I much prefer them to take this kind of an approach than to go the lower ceiling route just to take a guy who might be closer to the majors.

I also think it's worth noting that the guy running the show here in the draft is Frankie Piliere. He's their director of scouting, and came from the Mariners (where he was assistant DOS). The Mariners are an organization that likes to take HS players, and has done pretty well with them. Last year they drafted Colt Emerson, who was ranked around where the two guys the Marlins took this year were, and who Johnson has been compared to. At the time, some thought that was a reach, but a year after getting drafted, he's already a top 50-70 prospect (depending on which ranking you use) in all of baseball. Does that mean these guys will pan out the same way? Of course not. But I think it's worth putting a little faith in his approach.

[lou]

Because it's collectively bargained. The system used to be that they could pay these guys whatever they wanted, which obviously the MLBPA loves, but greatly benefits the clubs with more money. It's a weird system for sure, but I think it makes things interesting, actually. It adds another strategy to the process, and it actually works out quite often. The MLB draft is such a crap shoot that a team can take an underslot guy who is universally seen as a lesser prospect than the big time guy asking for over slot, and the "lesser" player ends up being the far better player. And that type of thing isn't even an outlier situation.

I do think teams should be able to trade picks, but I also kind of understand why they don't allow that either save for comp picks.

This - and international players should be folded into this for more availability for them versus a pure FA/posting system that benefits large market teams as the smaller ones just often trade their international money. The deck is stacked.

[lou]

Right. That's how the draft has to be viewed, and it's why you see some of the more well-regarded prospect people like Jim Callis from MLB Pipeline, Carlos Collazo from BA, Kiley McDaniel from ESPN, and Fangraphs saying good things about what Miami did on day 1. What they did with their first two picks is certainly a little more risky (although the "safe" route isn't really safe in the draft as we've seen with Berry), but for a bad system that needs impact bats, they gave themselves two cracks at it (and maybe more depending on what happens today) instead of one. Then, with their 3rd pick, they went a safer route, but took a guy who is also fairly intriguing, who probably has a fairly high floor as a RP if it doesn't work out the way you want as a SP. Who knows how it will play out, but honestly, the way the board fell to them, I much prefer them to take this kind of an approach than to go the lower ceiling route just to take a guy who might be closer to the majors.

I also think it's worth noting that the guy running the show here in the draft is Frankie Piliere. He's their director of scouting, and came from the Mariners (where he was assistant DOS). The Mariners are an organization that likes to take HS players, and has done pretty well with them. Last year they drafted Colt Emerson, who was ranked around where the two guys the Marlins took this year were, and who Johnson has been compared to. At the time, some thought that was a reach, but a year after getting drafted, he's already a top 50-70 prospect (depending on which ranking you use) in all of baseball. Does that mean these guys will pan out the same way? Of course not. But I think it's worth putting a little faith in his approach.

A big old "yep" across the board.


That being said to pivot, Jazz is a natural fit for the Mariners since you mentioned them and Young, Ford, and Emerson (the hitter not arm) are exactly the players to target because they have Raliegh and Jazz would effectively just time-jump one of those other two similarly positionally at 2B. It's a great matchup for teams and needs, especially when the Mariners have another young 2B/SS (Celestin) a few years behind the other two so they'd have system depth. Jazz can be bought out for nothing crazy for a few years, and the Marlins do have secondary pieces to make this worth the Mariners while. They said they aren't looking to trade Sanchez or DLC, but Jazz and one of them is a BIG move for Seattle. Sanchez has a major analytical backing + RHP splits. He may never be more valuable then right now if we believe he is a free swinger and just going to have these highs/lows and he's on a xwOBA bender and hits righties. He could have a Rooker (Oak) type impact for someone if everything cuts right IMO. That is tough to trade, but..... 2026 is circled. I think something could happen with the Mariners as the personnel really lines up and Seattle's GM likes to take some big risk moves. Jazz and Sanchez/DLC are perfect for their needs for some pop and Jazz roaming around and they can live without one of those centerpiece level prospects for sure. Ford, Peete (a forever away SS similar to Head, but a FV45+), and 2-3 more guys in their top 10-20 makes a lot of sense all around to me.

[sports24/7]

A big old "yep" across the board.


That being said to pivot, Jazz is a natural fit for the Mariners since you mentioned them and Young, Ford, and Emerson (the hitter not arm) are exactly the players to target because they have Raliegh and Jazz would effectively just time-jump one of those other two similarly positionally at 2B. It's a great matchup for teams and needs, especially when the Mariners have another young 2B/SS (Celestin) a few years behind the other two so they'd have system depth. Jazz can be bought out for nothing crazy for a few years, and the Marlins do have secondary pieces to make this worth the Mariners while. They said they aren't looking to trade Sanchez or DLC, but Jazz and one of them is a BIG move for Seattle. Sanchez has a major analytical backing + RHP splits. He may never be more valuable then right now if we believe he is a free swinger and just going to have these highs/lows and he's on a xwOBA bender and hits righties. He could have a Rooker (Oak) type impact for someone if everything cuts right IMO. That is tough to trade, but..... 2026 is circled. I think something could happen with the Mariners as the personnel really lines up and Seattle's GM likes to take some big risk moves. Jazz and Sanchez/DLC are perfect for their needs for some pop and Jazz roaming around and they can live without one of those centerpiece level prospects for sure. Ford, Peete (a forever away SS similar to Head, but a FV45+), and 2-3 more guys in their top 10-20 makes a lot of sense all around to me.

Rumors are that the Mariners are the leaders for Jazz, and I agree that they match up well. It would be nice for the Marlins to land one of those players as the headliner, but I'd wager they're going to go with players further away to try and get more prospects. While I'm good with the strategy they used at the draft, I don't like that approach in a Jazz trade. You have a desirable asset, and can bring in a player closer to the biggs (even if they may not be up to start next year), which assumes less risk. Unlike the draft, where at 16 it's a crap shoot, and the likelihood is that you're not going to find a difference maker, you have that opportunity in a trade. Especially in a sellers' market. I'm honestly afraid they're not going to even net a top 100 prospect in the package when it's all said and done. I really hope I'm wrong, though.

[lou]

Rumors are that the Mariners are the leaders for Jazz, and I agree that they match up well. It would be nice for the Marlins to land one of those players as the headliner, but I'd wager they're going to go with players further away to try and get more prospects. While I'm good with the strategy they used at the draft, I don't like that approach in a Jazz trade. You have a desirable asset, and can bring in a player closer to the biggs (even if they may not be up to start next year), which assumes less risk. Unlike the draft, where at 16 it's a crap shoot, and the likelihood is that you're not going to find a difference maker, you have that opportunity in a trade. Especially in a sellers' market. I'm honestly afraid they're not going to even net a top 100 prospect in the package when it's all said and done. I really hope I'm wrong, though.

I think that will be wrong. Jazz is a lot more valuable than Arraez with the extra service year (very big!) his contract $$$ doesn't offset the surplus value analysis as much as a $13-14 2025 tender coming in hot (huge!), and he is a versatile defender. I would also personally take the over on Jazz being better (pacing as a 2.5+ WAR guy which Arraez is not) moving forward. I think if they don't net a surefire top 100, FV50 guy similar to Max, Noble, or White using our guys as names, it is a monumental failure and disgrace. They'd need three Head level guys to offset that sort of thing and most teams don't have that kind of inventory of second tier names.

The Mariners have *a lot* of pieces to make this happen, and frankly the Marlins better get two of Ford, Young, C. Emerson, Celesen, Farmelo, Peete, and Montes for Jazz in a package. A lot of close/far guys there for everyone to work on something. I'm not going to spit out ideas right now, but that's the right pool of guys to target with Jazz, and the Marlins can absolutely juice that for them with things like giving them some time to work out a Jazz extension on arrival, including Sanchez/DLC who they really really need in addition to Jazz, taking back a bad contract (Polanco, Haniger, etc.), etc. There is going to be a lot of interest in him. I am not too worried here about value, with my only worry being what you share - may be 2027 A ballers and we all collectively close our eyes and groan as WTF is this timeline?

[Todd]

Chisholm probably doesn't merit a top 100 prospect fwiw. We all like him but at the end of the day he is a pretty meh bat who is at best decent defensively who you should stick in the 6 thru 8 spots of a batting order as an extra piece.

[sports24/7]

Jazz merits a top 100 prospect, especially in a sellers’ market. He’s not the superstar he was billed as, but he’s a good player who steals bases and hits HRs. He also has some control. Lesser players have gotten top 100 prospects. The reason I don’t think they’ll get one is I don’t think they’ll go for one. I think they’re going to target multiple younger players further away, with high upside. I don’t like that, but that’s what I think the tea leaves say.

[lou]

Chisholm probably doesn't merit a top 100 prospect fwiw. We all like him but at the end of the day he is a pretty meh bat who is at best decent defensively who you should stick in the 6 thru 8 spots of a batting order as an extra piece.

He easily does, but not a FV55, it would be a FV50 type. It's basically impossible to rate him under $35m in surplus value and that's a FV50, FV40+, and FV40 type package, or as sports247 fears above.... A FV45+, two FV45s, and a FV40+ and they bet on bodies versus 1 superior player. It would behoove them to add another player to Jazz (or take back something, like they did with Go in the Arraez deal) to get a better return IMO, as I generally agree Jazz has some warts, so throw in a kicker of something you don't care about too much to make it happen. It's also important to mention no one has hitters. No one. Everyone is meh and sucks. Pitching is dominating. I read an article offense is so down a .761 OPS is akin to an .800 OPS from a few years ago. You know who is 37th in HR in all of baseball? Bryan De La Cruz. That's crazy to think he has the average 2nd most HR on a normal team. Bryan De La Cruz. Right now, Jazz is a top 75 position player in the league with how he is playing, and what happens when he has some legitimate hitters around him and mentally gets into a better space of not being here in this mess. He also has a good production track record year to year, but for, yes he gets hurt (i.e. those warts). He is a genuine asset and difference maker to most teams in the league, especially ones like the Mariners (4th lowest in runs) at around $15m for the next 2.33 seasons. That's chump change for 25 franchises and you could buy quite a few control years for another $50-60m on top of that which is probably a good deal for everyone.

I'll stand by - it is a disgrace if they do not get a top 100 prospect/genuine FV50 bat for him with his production and years of control left. Something is wrong with the Marlins FO if they don't do that with someone like Jazz with the 2 more seasons and going to make as much as Arraez in 2025 over the rest of 24 through 2026. The only question for me, is this going to be a real low A ball guy or someone more projectable to 2026.

[Namaste]

Chisholm probably doesn't merit a top 100 prospect fwiw. We all like him but at the end of the day he is a pretty meh bat who is at best decent defensively who you should stick in the 6 thru 8 spots of a batting order as an extra piece.

He isn't eligible for FA until 2027 and he's gonna put up a 7.5 WAR 2022-2024. He gets a Top 100 prospect or Bendix is a complete tool box.

[sports24/7]

Random, but I just realized the Marlins currently sit at the top of the draft lottery for next year. CWS have the worst record, but due to the "small-market teams can't pick in the lottery 3 years in a row" rule, they can't pick higher than 10. Unfortunately, the "top" 3 teams all have the same odds, so it may not matter much, but that does make it fairly likely that they finish as one of the teams with the best odds. We all know how things work for the Marlins, though, so I'm sure they'll move down multiple spots in the lottery.

EDIT: Looking at it again, it looks like they spread the top 3 odds out among the remaining two teams, so the bottom 2 teams will actually have the best odds at 23.49% rather than 3 teams at 16.5% like it was this year.

[fish16]

i think if they try to maximize 1 piece in return, they could get a back end of the top 100 prospect for jazz. what will likely happen in my opinion though, is they try and get multiple non top 100 guys who are super low in the minors with "high ceiling". I see them going after a recently signed top IFA prospect that one of these bigger market teams have that can be considered a riser in the next couple of years. Nothing they have done indicates they are going for anyone remotely close to the big leagues.

I do think he will take off and start putting up better numbers on a better team, but i dont think is jazz is a special talent by any means. He is just too limited with his OF defense and his ability to hit lefties. He's gotten better against lefties this year, but still not good enough. And it's not just the results against lefties, his at bats against lefties, especially in the most crucial moments, have been flat out awful for several years now.