2024 Game Thread

[fish16]

holliday got called up by the orioles. there are simply not enough spots for all the hitting prospects they have and they could use a SP. it just makes too much sense. Give us one of Mayo/Cowser/Kjerstad and Westburg and a 3rd guy and lets just get this going already.

Or let's really go for it and get Basallo and someone like Norby for him. It's similar to Cartaya with the dodgers blocked by smith with rutschman in baltimore. That's a huge trade chip for them

[lou]

Now do Luzardo

(Luzardo got hosed with 2 BS hits low probability hits in his bad inning against the Yankees and statistically should have given up 2 runs at most before getting out of the inning, not 7. A great microcosm of 2024 so far).

[lou]

That’s rich coming from the guy who took a victory lap over a few spring training outings. It has nothing to do with era. It’s not an impressive skill set out of the bullpen. He doesn’t throw hard anymore and he can’t strike anyone out. He didn’t strike many guys out in spring and he hasnt had a single k in 23 hitters in the regular season. His average velocity is now all the way down to 93.9, down a full 5 mph from pre injury.

I think you are taking way too much offense to this. You post these glaring statements in black and white fashion that guys are dead or suck or whatever, and then you get a silly call out that hey Sixto is back doing something and maybe the response is, don't make a sweeping declarations. And that's it. We got A LOT of shit to bitch about and this ain't one of them is what I'm saying.

[fish16]

I think you are taking way too much offense to this. You post these glaring statements in black and white fashion that guys are dead or suck or whatever, and then you get a silly call out that hey Sixto is back doing something and maybe the response is, don't make a sweeping declarations. And that's it. We got A LOT of shit to bitch about and this ain't one of them is what I'm saying.

I post these glaring statements in black and white? I said the guy hasnt pitched in 3 years and shouldnt be counted on for anything and Namaste posts the following after meaningless spring outings and now looks like a fool:

"Sixto continuing to jizz all over fish16's face.



what a time to be alive and a Marlins fan and a Sixto fan, boys!"

Plus "I'm not at all surprised that you didn't admit you were wrong after you REPEATEDLY said Sixto was cooked and the Marlins should move on. Admitting you're wrong isn't your style."

Sixto is cooked, the marlins suck so it doesnt really matter this year if they keep him, but they likely will move on before the beginning of next year. All you have to do is look at the fucking guy and look at how big he is to clearly see he doesnt take it seriously enough. He got in shape 1 fucking time in the 5 years he's been here and then was big again 4 months later to end last year

[lou]

A 12 game performance report for me

A - Bender, Hoeing
B - Jazz, Cronin
C - Burger, Max, Weathers, Rogers, Nardi (xFIP 3.68. He's just been hosed and likely is fine)
D - Anderson (.400+ BABIP though), Soriano, Luzardo (xFIP 4.29, also been hosed, but should be better than that)
F - Literally everyone else, also Bendix and entire FO and ownership

Great times. Atlanta series on deck.

[fish16]

The orioles also have a glut of corner outfield types as well that we could desperately use. Once Kjerstad and Cowser are up full time, it makes mountcastle, hays, santander expendable. Hays makes the most sense given he's got another year of team control after this year, though he's not cheap. Could help offset money for a cheap orioles team though.

Cowser/Mayo/Kjerstad, Westburg/Norby, and Hays for Luzardo and possibly add Scott. It really just makes too much sense. That's 3 instant lineup pieces for luzardo who we have ample depth for to replace next year. That's a potential franchise altering move. All of a sudden you trot out a lineup with Jazz, Burger, Arraez, one of those 3 major prospects, westburg/norby, hays, sanchez, and maybe you re-sign bell for cheap.

Then you go try and pry Cartaya from the dodgers system and you really have something interesting moving forward on both sides of the ball for the first time in like 20 years. We've gone back and forth between all pitching and all hitting for way too long.

Could roll out by the end of 2025

C- Cartaya
1b- Burger
2b- Arraez
SS- ?
3b- Mayo
LF- Hays
CF- Jazz
RF- Sanchez
DH- Bell/Westburg

SP- Sandy, Eury, Garrett, Meyer, Weathers, Cabrera, Rogers, etc.

[lou]

The orioles also have a glut of corner outfield types as well that we could desperately use. Once Kjerstad and Cowser are up full time, it makes mountcastle, hays, santander expendable. Hays makes the most sense given he's got another year of team control after this year, though he's not cheap. Could help offset money for a cheap orioles team though.

Cowser/Mayo/Kjerstad, Westburg/Norby, and Hays for Luzardo and possibly add Scott. It really just makes too much sense. That's 3 instant lineup pieces for luzardo who we have ample depth for to replace next year. That's a potential franchise altering move. All of a sudden you trot out a lineup with Jazz, Burger, Arraez, one of those 3 major prospects, westburg/norby, hays, sanchez, and maybe you re-sign bell for cheap.

Then you go try and pry Cartaya from the dodgers system and you really have something interesting moving forward on both sides of the ball for the first time in like 20 years. We've gone back and forth between all pitching and all hitting for way too long.

Could roll out by the end of 2025

C- Cartaya
1b- Burger
2b- Arraez
SS- ?
3b- Mayo
LF- Hays
CF- Jazz
RF- Sanchez
DH- Bell/Westburg

SP- Sandy, Eury, Garrett, Meyer, Weathers, Cabrera, Rogers, etc.

The big picture here is simply:

Bruce goes nuts ($180m+) - It'll be on the best teams in baseball because at this price point, it means he kept everyone and signed Soto, Adames, and Snell or whatever, plus luxury upgrades everywhere. Never will happen, just saying.

Bruce spends a lot of money ($150m+) - Team will be awesome. Keeping Luzardo and Arraez, signing Adames, Jansen, and Teoscar, with real veteran bench guys, etc. Would be awesome.

Bruce spends some money ($120-140m) - Team will be very good and probable WC if pitching holds up. This is Keeping Luzardo and Arraez, signing at least Adames, and suitable mid-tier veterans and not Tim Anderson types

Bruce spends like a jerk ($90-110m. We are here right now) - The team will have numerous holes and need hopes and prayers to contend with breakouts from Gordon and Brujan types, as well as production explosions from Jazz, Eury, Cabrera, and others taking steps forward. Or being +20 in 1 run/Xtra games, etc. Dumb luck.

Bruce spends like Tampa historically ($80m and less) - None of this matters and they will be terrible unless they draft a perfect team like Tampa or Baltimore. They should trade everyone entering arbitration except Sandy, and Garrett and Cabrera (as they are controlled 2025-2028), then trade Sandy in 2025 once he shows health to clear more money, and circle 2026 optimistically with Eury, Noble, Garrett, Cabrera, Max, Weathers, Fulton, and White being a studtastic rotation by then and through all the trades and a good 2024 draft of college bats got the bats you needed, but really 2027 as you probably kicked things even further and torching just 24 and 25 is too optimistic. Forever rebuild until you actually draft and develop Grayson/Aldy/Gunnar/Holliday/Mayo/Kjerstad with good secondary players in succession.


We can debate trades, or free agents, or whatever. But on a purely big picture level, I'm not sure any of it matters as if Bruce gives Bendix the budget, he will have trade and FA options. Plus extension options. It's all about the money and what I'd like to see is not half assing it in $90-110m land. Go spend for 3 years at $120-140m and if it doesnt work tear it down, or literally and while painful, gut the fucking team the next 2-3 months to holy hell and target that longterm Eury, Noble, Garrett, Cabrera, Max, Weathers, Fulton, and White rotation and put yourself in a situation where you have 12-15 guys making the minimum, those 5 SP outside of the minimum might cost you $30m, and you need to sign 8-10 guys in FA and your team payroll is under $50m. So maybe, in this scenario, there could be legitimate free agency to move the team from good to great.


Basically the TLDR - it's always Bruce. Nothing changes until Bruce changes or radical off and on the field changes are needed to play at a sub $90m payroll. That being said, they have everything they need to succeed in either direction they want to go in so the worst decision is doing nothing and just trying to hope all the SP hits its stride at some point in this $90-110m purgatory. They need to double down on 2025 (which they should have done this year of course), or burn it to the ground and just keep the SP controlled for 4+ years.

[lou]

Also, the Orioles called up Holliday BEFORE the service time threshold.

So no service time manipulation with him and he will get 1 full year if he is up every day. If they kept him down just a few more days, they would have deflected a year. Basically, organization is not fucking with him and that will be reciprocated I am sure when he signs a Witt/Julio/Wander kind of deal in the coming year or two.

[fish16]

Also, the Orioles called up Holliday BEFORE the service time threshold.

So no service time manipulation with him and he will get 1 full year if he is up every day. If they kept him down just a few more days, they would have deflected a year. Basically, organization is not fucking with him and that will be reciprocated I am sure when he signs a Witt/Julio/Wander kind of deal in the coming year or two.

turns out you dont have to fuck over your players and actively make your team worse when you sign them to long term deals that benefits both parties early. what a concept!

[fish16]

cabrera will be back next turn in the rotation. Went 5.1 in jax today, 1 hit, 9 k's, no runs, just 1 walk. Garrett likely as well after his outing tomorrow.

[lou]

turns out you dont have to fuck over your players and actively make your team worse when you sign them to long term deals that benefits both parties early. what a concept!

Well they haven't signed him (yet but I imagine it is coming). He is the # 1 prospect in baseball and they are a mega-contender IMO. He may be in his own bucket. Mayo and Kjerstad are notably not up right now at the same time.

I know your reply is historical baseball wisdom should be thrown out as its clear everyone gets hurt so just throw the guys when they are healthy (to a reasonable extent), but in summer 2023, they were going to shut down Eury in September 100% if they kept him up as he would have crossed what they wanted to do at the time, so I don't think it's exactly apples to apples here with him and Holliday. Marlins had other reasons, even if service time was part of the equation. I am interested in seeing what they do with the next huge prospect that comes up for them and if a service time game continues. A new CBA may be in effect. And/or if pitching limits with the Marlins, or all across baseball, get eased up as everyone is getting hurt. I guess we'll see. The good news is they don't have any important prospects on the cusp for us to think about here and they are a clear non-contender! Right!

That being said, do we think Max should throw this season 60 more innings versus maintaining control for all of 2029? I cannot see how they don't send him down till post ASB unless they are about to extend him. Why would they burn a season in what is likely a 95+ loss season coming?

[fish16]

Well they haven't signed him (yet but I imagine it is coming). He is the # 1 prospect in baseball and they are a mega-contender IMO. He may be in his own bucket. Mayo and Kjerstad are notably not up right now at the same time.

I know your reply is historical baseball wisdom should be thrown out as its clear everyone gets hurt so just throw the guys when they are healthy (to a reasonable extent), but in summer 2023, they were going to shut down Eury in September 100% if they kept him up as he would have crossed what they wanted to do at the time, so I don't think it's exactly apples to apples here with him and Holliday. Marlins had other reasons, even if service time was part of the equation. I am interested in seeing what they do with the next huge prospect that comes up for them and if a service time game continues. A new CBA may be in effect. And/or if pitching limits with the Marlins, or all across baseball, get eased up as everyone is getting hurt. I guess we'll see. The good news is they don't have any important prospects on the cusp for us to think about here and they are a clear non-contender! Right!

That being said, do we think Max should throw this season 60 more innings versus maintaining control for all of 2029? I cannot see how they don't send him down till post ASB unless they are about to extend him. Why would they burn a season in what is likely a 95+ loss season coming?

Yes, he absolutely should stay up here if he continues to throw well. If he throws well, sign him long term early and stop worrying about bullshit 5 years down the line with every single player. It's exhausting.

It is beyond stupid that this is still how baseball deals with team control and contracts. It is terrible for every single person involved for teams to be incentivized to keep their best players down and actively make their team worse. Im not going to sit here and act like i have the perfect solution, but it is fucking nauseating to continue to discuss service time when all that conversation really boils down to is actively keeping your best players down to benefit 6 years from now. It's not good for fans, it's not good for the players, it makes the teams worse up front. The only people who it benefits is the billionaire (other than Sherman) owners. It is a completely ridiculous way to handle the future stars of the game, and it's a disgrace that this is still how it's handled.

My thing with eury had everything to do with the arbitrary innings limit they set up for him and fucking with him when he was showing 0 signs of fatigue. Pitchers get hurt. The human body is not meant to throw a baseball 100 mph. Babying these guys does not help anything. There is nothing showing that kind of strategy prevents injury. Just about all of these phenoms throwing 100 are going to have TJ at some point. They should have cautiously let him go till he showed signs of fatigue and then shut him down. You know what's worse than a pitcher throwing too many innings? Getting them in midseason form and then shutting them down for a fucking month and then starting them back up again. The way they handled him was fucking absurd. And then after all that being "careful" last year, they continue to pitch him this spring with a blister/fingernail issue.

[fish16]

The parallels in the career of luzardo and weathers are pretty crazy. Seems like another steal for almost nothing. Hes like a lefty Cabrera with the velocity and lack of control

[lou]

The parallels in the career of luzardo and weathers are pretty crazy. Seems like another steal for almost nothing. Hes like a lefty Cabrera with the velocity and lack of control

While it is a steal because it was a deal for Cooper and he looks like a viable MLB arm in some capacity, maybe dial this down a bit versus Cabrera as his start was not that impressive despite them winning. 5 swings and misses which is not good (Stroman had 12), 1 whiff, everything hit pretty hard, supremely lucky on things like Soto's .890 xBA fly was an out. Weather's statcast is really blue beyond the velocity and I imagine it is not going to change much even if it is a SSS right now. He's going to need to find some kind of real out off speed pitch (sweeper?) to be a longterm starter, but guys like Pivetta do develop that later so you never know. Point is - he is not a Cabrera or Luzardo who have super premium stuff (especially Cabrera) beyond throwing with some velocity. They should develop him as a SP this year as why not, but he's looking like a reliever with what he is showing. But maybe there is some growth coming with the offspeeds. I think I am least enthused with him of all the SP, and that includes Puk as I kind of feel Puk is more mental right now.

[lou]

Yes, he absolutely should stay up here if he continues to throw well. If he throws well, sign him long term early and stop worrying about bullshit 5 years down the line with every single player. It's exhausting.

It is beyond stupid that this is still how baseball deals with team control and contracts. It is terrible for every single person involved for teams to be incentivized to keep their best players down and actively make their team worse. Im not going to sit here and act like i have the perfect solution, but it is fucking nauseating to continue to discuss service time when all that conversation really boils down to is actively keeping your best players down to benefit 6 years from now. It's not good for fans, it's not good for the players, it makes the teams worse up front. The only people who it benefits is the billionaire (other than Sherman) owners. It is a completely ridiculous way to handle the future stars of the game, and it's a disgrace that this is still how it's handled.

My thing with eury had everything to do with the arbitrary innings limit they set up for him and fucking with him when he was showing 0 signs of fatigue. Pitchers get hurt. The human body is not meant to throw a baseball 100 mph. Babying these guys does not help anything. There is nothing showing that kind of strategy prevents injury. Just about all of these phenoms throwing 100 are going to have TJ at some point. They should have cautiously let him go till he showed signs of fatigue and then shut him down. You know what's worse than a pitcher throwing too many innings? Getting them in midseason form and then shutting them down for a fucking month and then starting them back up again. The way they handled him was fucking absurd. And then after all that being "careful" last year, they continue to pitch him this spring with a blister/fingernail issue.

It's constantly confusing how on one hand we rail on them being a smart, efficient organization and make cost effective moves only because that's what they must do with a shitty owner, and then on the other hand say let's burn a year of service time and make him more expensive sooner on a top 10 asset in the organization in a year you're going to lose 95+ games. The solution is to not buy out everyone's arbitration. You can't do that yet without him doing anything at the MLB level you know? My guess is it is one more start and we see him up permanently late July. I guess we'll see.

And for the later, blame the CBA which the MLBPA agreed too. They moved the needle a little with the performance incentives where Julio/Aldy got service time and teams got draft picks in response, etc., but it doesn't resolve the current Max Meyer situation. Who is not a "top top" prospect and would likely garner ROY voting to fall into that basket where teams are compelled to just call those guys up (Langford, Holliday being the examples here). He's a really good prospect, who got hurt, and the team lost service time, so there is more incentive for the organization to do nothing even if that stinks for fans/Max. You get it and I don't agree the system needs fixes, but until it does, I would say the organization needs to play the game and be smart about it. Also just to say here, it's not just about the control year, it's also deflecting costs as you can kick arbitration out cheaper and longer depending on the situation, as well as its leverage for those arbitration buyouts you like/want. There are some secondary issues at play. Optimistically, there is a change in the CBA.

One thing I personally have thought about is restricted free agency. Maybe in the final arbitration year, let guys sign with any club for 2 years? 3 years? (open to debate on years, I wouldn't want it to be too many. For instance, the Marlins couldn't match a $200+m offer if say Eury turns out to be a mega stud and they don't offer him a deal before then. You want to give the small clubs a chance here to retain their guy and if the Yankees can only offer 2-3 years that gives them a chance even if profoundly expensive at a $30-40m per year offer, etc.). And the current team can match so they'd get basically 1-2 extra years (i.e. what a normal arbitration buyout looks like, getting 1-2 extra years). If they let the player go, they get a recouped draft pick (maybe multiple depending on contract price). This has the incentive IMO of the Marlins not caring if Max is up this year. If he's good in year 5+ of service time - they can match a deal for importantly MORE years if one is offered or get a draft pick. Likewise, players effectively get to FA a year earlier so that works for them. Maybe teams would keep players down longer to max out those 5 years, but I doubt it. Because they could also enhance the call them up early draft pick compensation ala Julio/Aldy. Anyways, there is something here in some permutation I think and a reasonable restricted free agency I think is something that should be explored as that gives teams the potential for more control, and the players more potential to negotiate raises and push off the arbitration system sooner. Because yes, this whole debate of Max shouldn't be happening. If he's ready, let him throw. But that's not today for the broke ass Bruce Sherman regime who is going to lose 95 games after making the playoffs.