2024 Game Thread

[lou]

I’m honestly fine with them not spending big money on a an average starter to eat innings, but they consistently refuse to spend a single major league dollar on bullpen arms that are consistently available for cheap every offseason. We spend the first few months of every year shuffling shitty aaaa guy after shitty aaaa guy until they find a competent mix. It’s ridiculous. I’m not saying spend the big money on a guy like hader, but you can find impact late inning relievers for cheap
and we consistently just find whatever scraps don’t fit on the rays 40 man roster as our main additions year after year

The problem is clearly they need a starter to eat a lot of innings so the bullpen isn't over worked and there is your trickle down to pen performance. Maybe this resolves itself with Eury/Cabrera/Garrett, but the void is 100+ SP/Bulk reliever innings and not another reliever. As said preseason, they will need someone now to bridge the gap to the guys being healthy but you brushed that aside saying they'll be fine early and will need starts in August/September. Hopefully this was just some opening weekend yips for Puk and Nardi and everyone looks bad for a few games during the season. Sixto made the team and got hit too which impacts carrying another reliever which is kind of important here (as he's OOO). 4 of their top 13 arms are hurt (5 w/ Sandy). I mean this was only going to work if Puk/Weathers/Max brought it for a few starts until the 3 of the SP are back and that wipes out all the bottom innings you're worried about (mostly). We got excited because of their spring training stats, but reality came fast there with Puk walking everyone and Weathers was extra hittable. I think they'll settle in and be (much) better, but we'll see if they can hit as that is still going to be the big problem over the course of the year. Not signing a HITTER (and really two) lost game 1 and maybe game 4 IMO. Garcia and Bride are 3/16 with 1BB and 4 GIDP. They've made 21 outs in 17 PA, and in Garcia's defense, he did hit a HR so they created 1 run of offense during that time. Why the fuck are these guys on the team? Bride is fine to carry on the 40 and in AAA, but this is ridiculous when they could have upgraded both of these spots for under $5-7m total. JD Davis hit 2 HR this weekend. This are slap your forehead obvious decisions and WTF is this front office thinking, unless it's..... 2025

[fish16]

I think you're off on this one for two reasons. First, his velocity was up from spring training and back to what he showed pre injury in 2023, and he got a healthy amount of swings and misses and only around 3 balls were hit hard. It was actually an encouraging start from a health and stuff standpoint. Namaste is right they got some weak hits in there. That happens. He walked a few extra guys and they got freebie hits. He's going to be good this year if this is the Rogers we get, but there needs to be a little more control. That'll probably happen with some repetition. Can't let small sample sizes fool you, this was encouraging ignoring all the other bad shit that is happening. Second, you can't name 13 pitchers in the Marlins organization better than him right now, let alone 17-18 if you count the injured guys. He should be on the MLB team for sure, and probably is the 5th SP with Puk/Weathers being bulks for 1+ time through the lineup right now.

His xfip was 4.94 yesterday and his velocity was literally the exact same as it was last year and a full mph less than 2021 and 2022. Obviously they have no choice but for him to be in the rotation currently, but when Garrett, cabrera, and Eury are back he has no business being in the rotation unless he shows a lot more. The guy hasnt been a good starter in 2.5-3 years. It's time to stop thinking of what he was and start thinking of what he has been for a very significant amount of time now. If we're healthy i'd put him no higher than 7th on guys i'd like to see in the rotation behind Luzardo, Eury, Garrett, Cabrera, Weathers, Meyer, and then him and puk.

Weathers intrigues me a lot. Results were mixed on Saturday but his average velocity was 97, up 3 MPH from what he was with san diego in 2021 and 2022.

[lou]

His xfip was 4.94 yesterday and his velocity was literally the exact same as it was last year and a full mph less than 2021 and 2022. Obviously they have no choice but for him to be in the rotation currently, but when Garrett, cabrera, and Eury are back he has no business being in the rotation unless he shows a lot more. The guy hasnt been a good starter in 2.5-3 years. It's time to stop thinking of what he was and start thinking of what he has been for a very significant amount of time now. If we're healthy i'd put him no higher than 7th on guys i'd like to see in the rotation behind Luzardo, Eury, Garrett, Cabrera, Weathers, Meyer, and then him and puk.

Weathers intrigues me a lot. Results were mixed on Saturday but his average velocity was 97, up 3 MPH from what he was with san diego in 2021 and 2022.

Because he walked a lot of guys - we're frankly in the projection stage of the season with most guys, but especially Rogers with all the injuries. He's throwing as hard as he has since 2022 which is good and results are going to be coming with some solid swing/miss and weak contact rates. Just look at the statcast, Rogers 7 hits allowed had these xBA (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?gamePk=746090)

.190
.390
.530 < -- The triple
.270
.870 < - A good single
.180
.750 < - A good single

He also gave up one hard hit lineout (.570), everything else was weak.

So he probably got unlucky on giving up 3-4 extra hits, and got lucky that one lineout didn't get through. You take away 2-3 hits and like I said, if he can tighten up the control which is the key here and give up some less walks, and he's in business very fast. Maybe not 2021 levels, but he doesn't need to do that to be extremely useful. It wasn't a bad showing and was a lot closer to a dominant outing than you think it was because some of those hits were BS. He needs to cut the walks. That's basically the entire story. And yes, Weathers is interesting. So is Puk who I imagine just had the yips. You're also going to be so mad when Max is optioned down after 2 starts.

When everyone is healthy I'd probably put Weathers as the 5. Not because I think he is the best, but because he has the most innings to give and just let him rip

Luzardo
Eury + Puk
Garrett
Cabrera + Rogers
Weathers + Max when he is back up in July as yes I anticipate a service time deflection


This is also the silver lining to game 4, look how they used Guitterez. 5 IP Rogers..... 4 IP Guitterez. I know this was done out of necessity... but can you feel my excitement that this happened and about them doing SP combos? Eury+Puk and Cabrera+Rogers could be devastating and gets them all to the right place innings wise. Really really hope this happens when everyone is back in May.

[Nick]

I mean, 4 of their top 5 (including Sandy) SP are hurt right now so if you get a bum IP start (Puk, Weathers to an extent), that's going to happen. Big picture here, I imagine Eury, Garrett, and Cabrera would have thrown 13-15 innings to open the season in their three starts and this very very quickly is Guitterez, Hoeing, B. Smith, and some Sixto and Cronin. That's where the trickle down happens which I know you know and that's going to kill them until those guys are back unless Puk/Weathers/Max really bring it and those guys are 0-2 so far.

They lost 1-2 games because they didn't have those 4 pitchers IMO, and 1-2 games because they refused to upgrade Garcia + Bride spots on the team with guys like Michael Taylor, who had a .976 OPS against the Marlins in his 15 PA against them opening series. It's a combo of bad injury luck and general ineptitude. It'll swing back around as they aren't this bad, but they really can't afford any holes to dig out of of course.

I know I’m preaching to the choir, but hey spend $5-10 million on a vet starter instead of flyer minor league deals and this shit isn’t happening.

[rmc523]

I know I’m preaching to the choir, but hey spend $5-10 million on a vet starter instead of flyer minor league deals and this shit isn’t happening.

If only someone…anyone…could’ve seen this coming lol.

[fish16]

I know I’m preaching to the choir, but hey spend $5-10 million on a vet starter instead of flyer minor league deals and this shit isn’t happening.

how is adding a mediocre vet starter for 5-10 million changing anything that happened this weekend exactly? The team lost 3 good key starting pitchers to injury before opening day on top of one of the best pitchers in baseball being out for the year already. That's why it looks like this. Name me a team that would be competitive with 4/5 of the rotation out? Once those guys get back it will look a lot better. Imagine this team with Eury, garrett, and Cabrera in the rotation and now adding 3 of Rogers, Meyer, Puk, or Weathers to the pen and getting rid of Gutierrez, Hoeing, whatever the hell burch smith is That's what the issue is. Plus their refusal to spend actual big money on impact bats for like 8 straight years.

[Nick]

how is adding a mediocre vet starter for 5-10 million changing anything that happened this weekend exactly? The team lost 3 good key starting pitchers to injury before opening day on top of one of the best pitchers in baseball being out for the year already. That's why it looks like this. Name me a team that would be competitive with 4/5 of the rotation out? Once those guys get back it will look a lot better. Imagine this team with Eury, garrett, and Cabrera in the rotation and now adding 3 of Rogers, Meyer, Puk, or Weathers to the pen and getting rid of Gutierrez, Hoeing, whatever the hell burch smith is That's what the issue is. Plus their refusal to spend actual big money on impact bats for like 8 straight years.

Do you recall last season at all? We dealt with injuries to the pitching staff at all times during the season and it gets worse as the season goes on. You have a vet starter you have Weathers or Meyer going 4 innings instead of Gutierrez. Or you’re in a position at that point to not have to use the AAA pitcher you just called up for 4 innings. This isn’t rocket science.

[Nick]

If you rely solely on young pitchers, you will
deal with both injury issues and innings limitations. It’s part of the deal.

[lou]

I know I’m preaching to the choir, but hey spend $5-10 million on a vet starter instead of flyer minor league deals and this shit isn’t happening.

If only someone…anyone…could’ve seen this coming lol.

I mean right? I don't know how anyone could argue Lorenzen, Davis/Urshela/Rosario, and Taylor/Duvall/Pham wouldn't have made an enormous impact this opening series.

That's $9-11m + incentives for all 3, and that would be a payroll lower than $6-10m versus what they did in 2023. After making the playoffs.

I will legitimately never understand why someone wants to buy a sports team and the doesn't want to win more games, especially with irrelevant money in the scheme of hundreds of millionaires and creating a better product will produce you more revenue. The only thing that is a glimmer of hope that they will never confirm/deny is it Bruce said $110m is good for next two seasons and Bendix knows he wasn't going to win the WS this year, so he's banking that to next year. That is the only thing I can think of where it's maybe acceptable to not have signed a few more guys because the decision was made to wait for Sandy/more innings capacity and this is a get healthy and test out year for everything else.

In any event, they'll be better than that series but jesus did their clear weakness showcase a clear display.

[lou]

Do you recall last season at all? We dealt with injuries to the pitching staff at all times during the season and it gets worse as the season goes on. You have a vet starter you have Weathers or Meyer going 4 innings instead of Gutierrez. Or you’re in a position at that point to not have to use the AAA pitcher you just called up for 4 innings. This isn’t rocket science.

It is not rocket science. But hopefully Bezos, experienced in rocket science, wants a vanity project and becomes the savior the Marlins need.

BTW their team payroll dropped to 28th overall (ahead of Oakland and Pittsburgh only).

After a playoff appearance.

Like seriously WTF?


(And it's actually 29th in on the field once you take out the Sandy/Cueto/Barnes money, and really close to Oakland if you assume Garcia is just dead money which it is)

[fish16]

Do you recall last season at all? We dealt with injuries to the pitching staff at all times during the season and it gets worse as the season goes on. You have a vet starter you have Weathers or Meyer going 4 innings instead of Gutierrez. Or you’re in a position at that point to not have to use the AAA pitcher you just called up for 4 innings. This isn’t rocket science.

Sandy, Luzardo, Garrett, Eury, and Cabrera started 132 of 162 games last year. Cueto started another 10. There is no way for a team like us to withstand losses to 4/5 of their rotation. The dodgers have a 300+ million payroll and have Ryan Yarbrough (will be an opener type) and James Paxton and gavin stone in their rotation because they are currently without Kershaw, Buehler, May, Ohtani, and Gonsolin, And they are the dodgers who can just go sign a 300 million arm in Yamamoto and trade for another 150 million arm in Glasnow. We do not have that luxury.

We absolutely failed not signing a guy who would do what we hoped cueto would do last year. 100% But there is no way to overcome losing 4/5 of the best part of the team. No matter how much you want to blame it on Sherman, you can't overcome that. And thats from me who thinks shermans a moron who needs to sell the team. Hopefully Garrett, Cabrera, and Eury come back soon. The 4 of those guys combined for 8.5 WAR last year, and that's in half a season for Eury and a down year for Sandy, plus cabrera having the highest walk rate in the league which hopefully improves. There is no innings eater who overcomes all that.

They needed to do more with LF specifically and they could have gotten a better C, but there is nothing you can do to overcome losing 4/5 of the strength of your team. Michael Lorenzon, who isnt even on the rangers roster currently and just got lit up in AAA, aint changing anything.

Tommy Pham would certainly help though!

[lou]

Sandy, Luzardo, Garrett, Eury, and Cabrera started 132 of 162 games last year. Cueto started another 10. There is no way for a team like us to withstand losses to 4/5 of their rotation. The dodgers have a 300+ million payroll and have Ryan Yarbrough (will be an opener type) and James Paxton and gavin stone in their rotation because they are currently without Kershaw, Buehler, May, Ohtani, and Gonsolin, And they are the dodgers who can just go sign a 300 million arm in Yamamoto and trade for another 150 million arm in Glasnow. We do not have that luxury.

We absolutely failed not signing a guy who would do what we hoped cueto would do last year. 100% But there is no way to overcome losing 4/5 of the best part of the team. No matter how much you want to blame it on Sherman, you can't overcome that. And thats from me who thinks shermans a moron who needs to sell the team. Hopefully Garrett, Cabrera, and Eury come back soon. The 4 of those guys combined for 8.5 WAR last year, and that's in half a season for Eury and a down year for Sandy, plus cabrera having the highest walk rate in the league which hopefully improves. There is no innings eater who overcomes all that.

They needed to do more with LF specifically and they could have gotten a better C, but there is nothing you can do to overcome losing 4/5 of the strength of your team. Michael Lorenzon, who isnt even on the rangers roster currently and just got lit up in AAA, aint changing anything.

Tommy Pham would certainly help though!

All you needed to say is the bold.

No one is talking about overcoming 4/5ths the rotation being out. The need for the "Lorenzen" type was to overcome right now, in April. Because many guys are hurt and you build in that depth day 1 and you don't wait to just obtain it at the deadline. They got 2 bum starts, a few extra inning games, and another RP imploding (Nardi), and while that's a lot to happen all at once causing a trickle down innings impact, that's why you have some foresight to sign depth like Lorenzen or Clevinger. Because now Guitterez is DFA'd because they simple need space. He should have been a MiLB signing and in AAA for months while rehabbing and getting back into it. Maybe they don't lose him, but multiple teams wanted him in FA and what are you doing when you could have just signed Lorenzen who if you fall out is an easy AF flip at the deadline as at minimum he'd be a good reliever as he has been in the past?

Big picture, I think not signing JD Davis, M. Taylor, and Lorenzen has cost them 2 wins so far this year versus Garcia, Bride, and Guitterez/Smith. It's a big old WTF are they doing as that bar is sooooo low with those guys. Off a year they made the playoffs? And Garcia is sad in the media he is getting boo'd? Like is everyone in the Marlins orbit a fucking idiot that they had the worst or second worst offseason in franchise history coming off their 3rd best season in franchise history? It's a spit in all of our faces. You dont need to rail the guys are hurt and none of these pedestrian FA matter. They do matter. It's building a culture. It's not completely spitting in the face of your fan base and at least doing something tangible to give yourself a better chance. Which being on a better team will psychologically help these guys become better players too as who likes losing? They are fucking idiots and you're right this franchise deserves none of our money. Payroll was lowered after making the playoffs (barely) and they dipped to a lower MLB rank in overall payroll to 28th our of 30.

The only saving grace is, if this is all intentional to get to 2025 with money and prospects for Luzardo/Arraez, I get it. But it's still pathetic we have to go through this season to keep kicking this can. None of this should be happening even at Bruce's payroll levels, so frankly the Bendix honeymoon is over for me. He showed he isn't ready for this job with how terrible the back of the roster is with clear and cheap opportunities to remedy it, absent this is all a ploy to preserve payroll for 2025. I'm not holding my breath on that they have some carry forward payroll scheme going on here internally, but I would like to be surprised for once.

[fish16]

All you needed to say is the bold.

No one is talking about overcoming 4/5ths the rotation being out. The need for the "Lorenzen" type was to overcome right now, in April. Because many guys are hurt and you build in that depth day 1 and you don't wait to just obtain it at the deadline. They got 2 bum starts, a few extra inning games, and another RP imploding (Nardi), and while that's a lot to happen all at once causing a trickle down innings impact, that's why you have some foresight to sign depth like Lorenzen or Clevinger. Because now Guitterez is DFA'd because they simple need space. He should have been a MiLB signing and in AAA for months while rehabbing and getting back into it. Maybe they don't lose him, but multiple teams wanted him in FA and what are you doing when you could have just signed Lorenzen who if you fall out is an easy AF flip at the deadline as at minimum he'd be a good reliever as he has been in the past?

Big picture, I think not signing JD Davis, M. Taylor, and Lorenzen has cost them 2 wins so far this year versus Garcia, Bride, and Guitterez/Smith. It's a big old WTF are they doing as that bar is sooooo low with those guys. Off a year they made the playoffs? And Garcia is sad in the media he is getting boo'd? Like is everyone in the Marlins orbit a fucking idiot that they had the worst or second worst offseason in franchise history coming off their 3rd best season in franchise history? It's a spit in all of our faces. You dont need to rail the guys are hurt and none of these pedestrian FA matter. They do matter. It's building a culture. It's not completely spitting in the face of your fan base and at least doing something tangible to give yourself a better chance. Which being on a better team will psychologically help these guys become better players too as who likes losing? They are fucking idiots and you're right this franchise deserves none of our money. Payroll was lowered after making the playoffs (barely) and they dipped to a lower MLB rank in overall payroll to 28th our of 30.

The only saving grace is, if this is all intentional to get to 2025 with money and prospects for Luzardo/Arraez, I get it. But it's still pathetic we have to go through this season to keep kicking this can. None of this should be happening even at Bruce's payroll levels, so frankly the Bendix honeymoon is over for me. He showed he isn't ready for this job with how terrible the back of the roster is with clear and cheap opportunities to remedy it, absent this is all a ploy to preserve payroll for 2025. I'm not holding my breath on that they have some carry forward payroll scheme going on here internally, but I would like to be surprised for once.

Overcoming 4/5 of your rotation being out is exactly what you'd be overcoming right now. It's the same thing as overcoming april currently, as they are without 4 of their top 5 guys in april. Lorenzen, for the 10th time, is not ready. He was shit for the 2nd half last year, isnt stretched out, and just got rocked in AAA for texas. This is not the difference between 0-4 and 2-2. He's a thoroughly mediocre pitcher. If they really wanted to compete, they should have made a play for a steadying mid rotation guy impact guy like montgomery. But these 5th starter innings eaters arent making up for the impact talent they are currently missing in the rotation. They are down like 10 WAR currently in the rotation over a full season. You dont overcome that.

None of these guys are doing anything to help a team that is without 4 of their top 5 pitchers. Full stop. That is the team's biggest issue. They need Eury, Garrett, and Cabrera back. You can quibble about the fringes, and they still have a golden opportunity to add a guy like Pham and get rid of DLC's ass already, but the reason they are 0-4 is because their starting pitching was terrible. They just gave up 6, 7, 9, and 9 runs in 4 games. The major reason for that is their rotation is missing 4 out of their top 5 pieces and their situational hitting was abysmal. It's not that deep.

[Nick]

Why is Sandy considered part of our rotation in 2024 when we’ve known he wouldn’t pitch in 2024 since October 2023? They had all offseason to replace innings and didn’t.

[fish16]

Why is Sandy considered part of our rotation in 2024 when we’ve known he wouldn’t pitch in 2024 since October 2023? They had all offseason to replace innings and didn’t.

Because he's your cy young pitcher who is part of the group of injured pitchers you are trying to replace the innings of from last year to form a competent team this year. They are down 580 innings of last year's team starters between Sandy, Garrett, Cabrera, Eury and Cueto, the majority of which they found out about like 2 weeks before opening day.

Please enlighten me who you would have signed in the offseason and what they ended up getting for their contract, not knowing that you would be losing 3 of those guys in spring training, to replace not only all those innings, but at the quality in which they were pitched. Not to mention, i will remind you this team was already apparently so lucky as to be the actual pythagorean W/L equivalent of like 76 games.

They should have signed a guy to eat innings, yes. That would not have made 1 difference if they did that and Eury, Garrett, and Cabrera each still got hurt in spring training. How were they supposed to prepare for that? If anything, they are in decent shape to replace those guys if Rogers, Puk, Weathers, and Meyer can pitch like they did in spring. But they need to get healthy. If Eury, Garrett, and Cabrera are out for significant time, whoever they would have signed is meaningless. That is the biggest issue right now.