2023 Game Thread

[Namaste]

putting Smeltzer in a close game where he got lucky

That’s some outstanding LUCK to strike out the side (top of the lineup too)!

[fish16]

That’s some outstanding LUCK to strike out the side (top of the lineup too)!

yes, putting smeltzer in and getting any kind of positive results is unbelievably lucky. just because something went well doesnt mean it was a smart move. He is a flat out awful pitcher. He cant get outs in AAA for 2 straight years and they let him pitch 2 innings in a close game for no reason. Please enlighten me on why putting him in that game was a good move.

Even with those outings he has a 7.51 XERA, a 5.41 XFIP, -.3 WAR, 6.96 FIP. In the minors this year he has a 5.95 ERA, 6.40 XFIP. He's a flat out horrific pitcher.

[lou]

Another day, another 2-4 outing with a home run for Xavier Edwards. This is completely unacceptable at this point. He has no business being in aaa. There has not been a single move this team has made for over a month that has made any fucking sense.

Lopez/Floro, Eder/Burger, and Segura+Watson/Bell all made a lot of sense?

But yes, they are clearly in the hail mary phase of contending and its time to shoot for the moon. I really don't get it at this point. But I guess good for us the longterm view of Edwards looks like he is a building block

[fish16]

Lopez/Floro, Eder/Burger, and Segura+Watson/Bell all made a lot of sense?

But yes, they are clearly in the hail mary phase of contending and its time to shoot for the moon. I really don't get it at this point. But I guess good for us the longterm view of Edwards looks like he is a building block

the trades were fine, i should have clarified the promotions and demotions and in game decision making by skip has been horrendous for over a month.

[lou]

A pitchers' paradise unless you pitch for Beloit. Every starter there, with the exception of Gabe Bierman, has an ERA of close to 5 and higher. The young starters aren't doing well in the Marlins' system overall.

Well that's the beauty of it, they don't need anyone until 2027. If anything, we're talking a 1 year # 4/5 SP or bulk reliever as guys graduate/ get healthy/someone traded for a bat.

6+ - Fulton, Monteverde
6 - Eury
5 - Garrett, Cabrera, Meyer, Weathers, Sixto
4 - Sandy
3 - Luzardo, Rogers

A 50% and Sixto burnout/relievers is a full high-end rotation so how are those guys looking in 2027? And the burnout rate is even better than that TBH as Sandy, Luzardo, Eury, and Garrett at minimum may be a ridiculously good 1-4 rotation for years, especially when Luzardo is be extended soon. 2027 is when Jacob Miller is first eligible for the 40 man, and Meyer and White wouldn't even be on it yet.

They are loaded Lee and non-top prospects don't matter much here as they'd just become relievers or trade assets. No one is exploding over whoever the top 5-6 end up being from this list above as that top 5-6 above may feature three top 15-20 SP (Sandy, Eury, Luzardo) and multiple other # 3/4 types.

[lou]

will banfield is now hitting .273 with a .784 OPS and 15 hr's in 83 games. The walk rate is way too low for him to become a full time major league player at this point, but this is so far above anything he had done in the past in the minor leagues. I would definitely give him AAA for a few months before they try him in the majors though. He's still just 23 even though it feels like he has been in the system for 8 years.

I have seen "Austin Hedges" mentioned 2 times for him in some scouting reports. An all defensive player that stumbles into 15 HR. Hedges is a 1.6 WAR player per 600 PA for his career. Hedges has a .7 WAR *THIS* year with a .450 OPS. Not a typo - OPS. The bar is so low for catchers right now. Banfield at a low .600 OPS hitting .200/.260/.350 with above average defense is a solid backup catcher at minimum. It's kind of how Fortes is playable just because he's good at framing pitches.

He's definitely a perfect three year 40 man catcher as their # 3 catcher 2024-2026 and if he grows into more, fantastic. I think you have him play everyday in AAA next year and be the third catcher. Get a real upgrade for a "should be contending" MLB team. I like the idea of overwhelming Toronto for Jansen and giving him a 3-4 year deal. That'll bridge to Banfield, Mack, or someone else they draft easily on paper.

[lou]

xavier edwards by the way has just 3 errors total all year between 2b, cf, and 3b. all 3 were at 2b.

That's not suggestive he is good defensively though, that could mean he has no range to get to balls to make errors (a subjective stat). It's the classic Jeter was not a good defensive SS argument, where a guy like Rojas would make all those dazzling Jeter plays routine and get to balls Jeter would never sniff and sometimes make errors on.

This is however no excuse not to try him. This is getting to be the Marlins version of Ryan Howard where the Phillies kept him down for such an outrageous amount of time. Not that Edwards is going to do that, but I have to imagine the guy may hit quickly and they need a spark.

[lou]

jacob berry really starting to have a nice year in AA. first 12 games, .771 OPS, 2 hr's after 4 all year in beloit, another 2 doubles, a triple, and 3 steals. Every single number is higher so far than it was in A+. Might it be time to start looking at beloit like we looked at Jupiter for all those years as a pitchers paradise?

Does anyone have a BA subscription regarding this - https://www.baseballamerica.com/stor...-factors-2022/

I just see this article on the new ballpark and it's not very helpful - https://www.milb.com/news/beloit-sho...y-new-ballpark

[fish16]

Does anyone have a BA subscription regarding this - https://www.baseballamerica.com/stor...-factors-2022/

I just see this article on the new ballpark and it's not very helpful - https://www.milb.com/news/beloit-sho...y-new-ballpark

it shows them having an extreme pitchers park. 2% on however the fuck they calculated their scale. Pensacola at a 57% meaning it is just above neutral. Jacksonville 31%. Jupiter is 3%. So Beloit is even more of an extreme pitchers park than Jupiter. That might explain a lot of the struggles and then improvement in Pensacola.

[lou]

it shows them having an extreme pitchers park. 2% on however the fuck they calculated their scale. Pensacola at a 57% meaning it is just above neutral. Jacksonville 31%. Jupiter is 3%. So Beloit is even more of an extreme pitchers park than Jupiter. That might explain a lot of the struggles and then improvement in Pensacola.

So it's just a 1-100 scale and 50 is a neutral factor, with Jupiter and Beloit being outrageous pitcher's park, Pensacola basically neutral, and Jacksonville a strong lean to pitching.

This is pretty interesting. I am wondering if any other organization has a neutral, pitching, crazy pitching, and crazy pitching slanted park as their minor league system

At some point, don't you want at least one hitters park as there is a morale/confidence aspect to your guys developing as hitters, even if that's call it a 75th percentile hitters park and not a Coors field launching pad? Maybe that's A+ as start with a pitcher lean and move to a hitter lean. Then AA being relatively neutral, so Pensacola is perfect there, and AAA something physically closest to your home ballpark as AAA callups shouldn't be coming from Calgary to Miami. Jacksonville makes sense in that aspect to me at least, but Jupiter would seem smarter ignoring ballpark size issues. Basically, Beloit is the problem here and they should get off two dramatic pitcher parks when they can.


Is this also where we point out he is doing this in a strong pitcher's park and look what happens on the road:

Edwards Home 174 AB - .333/.411/.425
Edwards Away 132 AB - .424/.480/.561 < ----- Holy Schnikes

[lou]

Amaya has an .851 home / .675 away AAA OPS. I think that is a good omen along with a .867 LHP / .728 RHP split. I think this is suggestive he will hit lefties as showing some solid numbers in a tougher park and good overall numbers (for years) against lefties. If the defense is as advertised, he's going to be a solid utility guy floor which is a great trade for Rojas.

Burdick .744 home / 1.014 away OPS < --- What are the park factors for the rest of their AAA league? Can we believe that he'll hit lefties and be Jordan Luplow?

Groshans .685 home / .650 away. Woof. I was hoping for a big split spike here away.

Myers is neutral for what he is doing. Effectively .850 everywhere. Probably will be solid if he can control the whiffs. A good find at least for some hope.

[fish16]

seems like a really bad idea for the development of hitters to have 2 extreme pitchers parks as the 2 lowest full season minor league levels that they have.

[lou]

seems like a really bad idea for the development of hitters to have 2 extreme pitchers parks as the 2 lowest full season minor league levels that they have.

Agreed. In their defense, Beloit is a newer ballpark so that is hard to anticipate. But swapping that for the Jacksonville equivalent of a hitting park when the lease is up seems like a smart idea. Or just move in the fences a little / decrease foul space / etc. Kind of hard to develop hitters if they are playing in two top 5 pitching parks in the minor leagues for two full seasons.

Hopefully this is a good omen for Cappe and Mack in a year or so once promoted. The dramatic Banfield improvement once he got to AA looks like something we should be tracking moving forward as a neutral Pensacola is a much stronger indicator of performance maybe. Also maybe should temper expectations of the arms until they get to AA.

[Lee Stone]

I especially like that both Myers and Johnston continue to maintain averages even higher than Edwards. We could have a trio of budding regulars.

[Namaste]

Please enlighten me on why putting him in that game was a good move.

Even with those outings he has a 7.51 XERA, a 5.41 XFIP, -.3 WAR, 6.96 FIP. In the minors this year he has a 5.95 ERA, 6.40 XFIP. He's a flat out horrific pitcher.

Everything you posted here does a great job of supporting my theory. Thank you so much for that.

Smeltzer has terrible numbers yet they brought him of all people up for ONE DAY TO FACE PHILLY because they saw favorable match ups and it worked BEAUTIFULLY.

What backs up your argument?