2023 Game Thread

[fish16]

I’m done with this conversation.

*writes 7 more paragraphs on the subject*

fair. now im done. i would love to have seen mike jacobs' baseball savant page though if it was around then.

[lou]

i'm done with the conversation after this for everyone's sake. It will be the same thing until he sees the light that the guy is a 4th of playing every day. He talks about other people going off a small sample size when everything about DLC is based on a two week meaningless period when every other aspect of his career has been thoroughly mediocre. FOR 10 FULL SEASONS. He's been the same exact player at every level outside of 1 year. His OPS by year in the minors: .704, .581, .727, .625, .742, .768, then 262 at bats one of the best hitters league in the minors where he put up an .880 OPS.

For context here are some guys on that team in that ballpark and their numbers that year: DLC: .880 OPS. Taylor Jones (AAAA player, career big league OPS of .655 in limited sample) :1.009, Jose Siri (big leaguer for his defense, career OPS in the big leagues of .674): .921. Now MArlins AAA player CJ Hinojosa: OPS of .832. Astros CF Jake Meyers (major league ops of .656) put up a 1.006.

Outside of the 2 week period last year, DLC never had any impressive minor league seasons in the context of where he was playing. Every guy you compare him to as a late bloomer always has minor league track records of at least impressive success. Even including the ridiculous outlier compared to the rest of his career, over 3 years here, he is exactly what he was in the minors: .268 BA, .318 OBP, .444 Slugging, and .744 OPS. His minor league overall numbers: .277, .346 OBP, .397 slugging .743 OPS and a terrible 38 steals in 66 chances. It is what he has been his entire career at every level.

Teoscar Hernandez for comparison career minor league numbers: .269, .338, .459 slugging, .797 OPS, plus 173 steals.

Yes, the advanced stats like him because he hits the ball hard. Unfortunately he does not walk, and he strikes out too much to ever be a starting OF longterm and make those expected numbers come to fruition. It's a great skill set for a 4th OF, theres nothing wrong with that. But there is no giant breakout coming that will make him a long term starting piece. He is what he has always been at every level. When someone tells you who they are over the course of close to 10 years, believe them. You'll see soon enough, and that doesnt mean he's a bad player.

I mean it's not a 2 week period as established already and how many times can one say that, minor league stats from a decade ago when he was 18/19 are irrelevant, so are MiLB stats/splits when compared to actual MLB data, you should see Siri's xBA, xOBP, and xSLUG as compared to DLC last year btw as that example may be the worst one yet. I don't even know how to process citing minor league SB numbers in a discussion about hard hit rates at the MLB level. Yikes all around!

[fish16]

I mean it's not a 2 week period as established already and how many times can one say that, minor league stats from a decade ago when he was 18/19 are irrelevant, so are MiLB stats/splits when compared to actual MLB data, you should see Siri's xBA, xOBP, and xSLUG as compared to DLC last year btw as that example may be the worst one yet. I don't even know how to process citing minor league SB numbers in a discussion about hard hit rates at the MLB level. Yikes all around!

yes, it was all within the period to end the year last year. for the year last year, he had a hard hit % of 39.1. From the beginning of the year until september 11th, the day before his meaningless season ending hot streak, his hard hit% was 34.4% over 269 PA. The year before it was 32.7%. So far this year it is 24% in an extremely small sample. Over his last 86 PA last year, his hard hit % was 52.4, medium hit was 39.7 %, and soft hit was just 7.9%. For reference, aaron judge for the year last year was just at 48% hard hit rate. For the year he had 355 plate appearances, and his overall hard hit rate was 39.1. All his damage was done over meaningless september at bats where he got hot. The rest of his career has been thoroughly mediocre. They are decent hard hit numbers without the few week period, but nothing special when you take into account his thoroughly average fielding ability at beat, plus terrible base running, plus terrible plate discipline. He's a completely 1 dimensional player, which is fine for a 4th outfielder.

For reference, Aaron judge's career hard hit rate is 47.8%.

So what you're doing is taking a meaningless hot streak where he hit the ball harder than Aaron judge's career rate for a few weeks and inflated his numbers and acting like that's who he is, when in reality the vast vast vast majority of his career his hard hit numbers are nothing special.

And his stats are relevant if they are almost all mediocre across 10 seasons other than 2-3 weeks of meaningless september baseball. he didnt just all of a sudden become barry bonds. He had a hot streak and you're taking that as who he is as opposed to literally the entire rest of his career of complete mediocrity.

[Nick]

[rmc523]

R.c3421a9e823b430946cbf1514dd0bcb6?rik=EIt%2fipoGObl1%2fg&riu=http%3a%2f%2fimg3.wikia.nocookie.net%2f__cb20130815124007%2ftransformers-legends%2fimages%2fc%2fc4%2fTriple-facepalm.jpg&ehk=ZpQWjr5qnoakXOOjWsTMc9EMKuQ7RlhPCCoCmzMI9M8%3d&risl=&amp

[lou]

yes, it was all within the period to end the year last year. for the year last year, he had a hard hit % of 39.1. From the beginning of the year until september 11th, the day before his meaningless season ending hot streak, his hard hit% was 34.4% over 269 PA. The year before it was 32.7%. So far this year it is 24% in an extremely small sample. Over his last 86 PA last year, his hard hit % was 52.4, medium hit was 39.7 %, and soft hit was just 7.9%. For reference, aaron judge for the year last year was just at 48% hard hit rate. For the year he had 355 plate appearances, and his overall hard hit rate was 39.1. All his damage was done over meaningless september at bats where he got hot. The rest of his career has been thoroughly mediocre. They are decent hard hit numbers without the few week period, but nothing special when you take into account his thoroughly average fielding ability at beat, plus terrible base running, plus terrible plate discipline. He's a completely 1 dimensional player, which is fine for a 4th outfielder.

For reference, Aaron judge's career hard hit rate is 47.8%.

So what you're doing is taking a meaningless hot streak where he hit the ball harder than Aaron judge's career rate for a few weeks and inflated his numbers and acting like that's who he is, when in reality the vast vast vast majority of his career his hard hit numbers are nothing special.

And his stats are relevant if they are almost all mediocre across 10 seasons other than 2-3 weeks of meaningless september baseball. he didnt just all of a sudden become barry bonds. He had a hot streak and you're taking that as who he is as opposed to literally the entire rest of his career of complete mediocrity.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQCU36pkH7c

[fish16]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQCU36pkH7c

Everyone’s dumber for knowing facts and stats on his 1 elite hot streak where he put up the 1 streak of his career where he put up numbers better than judge. Got it. Get back to me in a month when he is still Bryan de la Cruz

[lou]

Everyone’s dumber for knowing facts and stats on his 1 elite hot streak where he put up the 1 streak of his career where he put up numbers better than judge. Got it. Get back to me in a month when he is still Bryan de la Cruz

.......... But it's not the hot streak. Asked and answered. And a month is a small sample size so that period is going to be largely irrelevant against the larger volume of work. I think you need a vacation.

[fish16]

.......... But it's not the hot streak. Asked and answered. And a month is a small sample size so that period is going to be largely irrelevant against the larger volume of work. I think you need a vacation.

just saying asked and answered doesnt make it so. IT's why he's put up a bench player type war over a full season of plate appearances for his career. The larger volume of work that you consistently quote is heavily influenced by an 86 plate appearance stretch that greatly exceeds anything he ever has been at any point in his career, and was heavily influenced by a .443 BABIP in September and October. Again, his 1 hot streak last year after an almost full season of terrible baseball (had a .596 OPS on september 12th) had a hard hit rate of 52.4%. In 2021, his hard hit rate was 32.7% over 219 PA. Before the hot streak last year it was 34.4% of 269 PA. This year in super limited sample its 24%.. But you're choosing his 86 PA of Aaron judge type hard hit% over the 528 other PA's in his career because you want to believe it's so. Time will show you you're wrong. He's a good 4th OF who hits the ball hard and does nothing else of note well other than maybe have decent arm strength. He's a mediocre defender, a bad base runner, and has no plate discipline. and that's fine. we can leave it there.

[fish16]

burdick and xavier edwards have played really well to start in AAA. either one would be a better option than hampson. I;ve got no idea what hampson's role is up here or what he brings to this team other than breathing.

[lou]

just saying asked and answered doesnt make it so. IT's why he's put up a bench player type war over a full season of plate appearances for his career. The larger volume of work that you consistently quote is heavily influenced by an 86 plate appearance stretch that greatly exceeds anything he ever has been at any point in his career, and was heavily influenced by a .443 BABIP in September and October. Again, his 1 hot streak last year after an almost full season of terrible baseball (had a .596 OPS on september 12th) had a hard hit rate of 52.4%. In 2021, his hard hit rate was 32.7% over 219 PA. Before the hot streak last year it was 34.4% of 269 PA. This year in super limited sample its 24%.. But you're choosing his 86 PA of Aaron judge type hard hit% over the 528 other PA's in his career because you want to believe it's so. Time will show you you're wrong. He's a good 4th OF who hits the ball hard and does nothing else of note well other than maybe have decent arm strength. He's a mediocre defender, a bad base runner, and has no plate discipline. and that's fine. we can leave it there.

But it's not a bench player type WAR and he had a .258 BABIP over 3x the plate appearances before the hot streak. When are you going to realize you are the one heavily influencing everything on a small sample size because that larger underachieving BABIP was going to normalize anyways. You criticize Lee for extrapolating small sample sizes constantly, but are doing it here. What are you missing? Just look at his career slash. That is the fairest representation of this player we can have as it captures all the highs and lows! It eliminates any bias as best as possible in this or that.

You also mean virtually the entire scouting community is wrong not me - I'm not here predicting a 3+ WAR season you know. I'm hopeful he can get to 2. I'm just saying - I think we should believe professionals and experts in their field of work. They think there is a lot of growth, and as Marlins fans, we should be highly encouraged about this. This entire conversation is you declaring yourself the smartest and I'm just here to tell you that it is a pretty obnoxious take when people smarter than us think something differently and they have the data to back it up. Maybe you are right and he's a worse J.D. Davis for some reason, as shit does happen. Hermida, Maybin, and Miller all did fail. But my man, you need to tone down the rhetoric as that does not validate bad takes.

[Nick]

latest?cb=20170211045003&path-prefix=protagonist.jpg

[fish16]

But it's not a bench player type WAR and he had a .258 BABIP over 3x the plate appearances before the hot streak. When are you going to realize you are the one heavily influencing everything on a small sample size because that larger underachieving BABIP was going to normalize anyways. You criticize Lee for extrapolating small sample sizes constantly, but are doing it here. What are you missing? Just look at his career slash. That is the fairest representation of this player we can have as it captures all the highs and lows! It eliminates any bias as best as possible in this or that.

You also mean virtually the entire scouting community is wrong not me - I'm not here predicting a 3+ WAR season you know. I'm hopeful he can get to 2. I'm just saying - I think we should believe professionals and experts in their field of work. They think there is a lot of growth, and as Marlins fans, we should be highly encouraged about this. This entire conversation is you declaring yourself the smartest and I'm just here to tell you that it is a pretty obnoxious take when people smarter than us think something differently and they have the data to back it up. Maybe you are right and he's a worse J.D. Davis for some reason, as shit does happen. Hermida, Maybin, and Miller all did fail. But my man, you need to tone down the rhetoric as that does not validate bad takes.

For his career, his BABIP has normalized at .333. He's been producing bench player type war at 1.6 (before you bitch, that is what fangraphs considers that level of production) over 600 plate appearances with a normal BABIP over a large sample. His career slash is not very impressive. It's passable, 4th OF level production. What are you not getting? he has a .744 OPS over 600 at bats, terrible plate discipline, bad base running, negative grades defensively, and he has weird reverse platoon splits so he cant even be all that productive against lefties. He's a fine piece. IT's ok for someone to be a good 4th OF but not a starter on a good team.

It's not declaring myself the smartest to say that experts may be wrong. Go look at some of those breakout lists from previous years. They are taking educated guesses. Doesnt make them infallible.

https://www.yahoo.com/video/mlb-on-t...190800311.html

Here are some from the most educated people about these players, their own gm's. Some were of course right. Others wrong. Doesnt mean you cant disagree with these projections. Nick Solak, IFK, David Bote, Enoli Paredes, Mitch Keller, Logan Allen, all wrong by their own gm's.

Hell, here is fangraphs 2022 breakout guys. Including Jo Adell (77 WRC+ in over 200 PA's), Keston Hiura (not in the big leagues anymore),Kyle Higashioka (83 WRC+ in 248 PA's in a lineup with judge and stanton). https://blogs.fangraphs.com/szymbors...dates-hitters/

[lou]

For his career, his BABIP has normalized at .333. He's been producing bench player type war at 1.6 (before you bitch, that is what fangraphs considers that level of production) over 600 plate appearances with a normal BABIP over a large sample. His career slash is not very impressive. It's passable, 4th OF level production. What are you not getting? he has a .744 OPS over 600 at bats, terrible plate discipline, bad base running, negative grades defensively, and he has weird reverse platoon splits so he cant even be all that productive against lefties. He's a fine piece. IT's ok for someone to be a good 4th OF but not a starter on a good team.

It's not declaring myself the smartest to say that experts may be wrong. Go look at some of those breakout lists from previous years. They are taking educated guesses. Doesnt make them infallible.

https://www.yahoo.com/video/mlb-on-t...190800311.html

Here are some from the most educated people about these players, their own gm's. Some were of course right. Others wrong. Doesnt mean you cant disagree with these projections. Nick Solak, IFK, David Bote, Enoli Paredes, Mitch Keller, Logan Allen, all wrong by their own gm's.

Hell, here is fangraphs 2022 breakout guys. Including Jo Adell (77 WRC+ in over 200 PA's), Keston Hiura (not in the big leagues anymore),Kyle Higashioka (83 WRC+ in 248 PA's in a lineup with judge and stanton). https://blogs.fangraphs.com/szymbors...dates-hitters/

Higashioka paced over a 3+ WAR player last year. He was awesome??? Sign me up for Fortes doing that??? Jo Adell was hurt and is humorously slashing .347/.448/.939 at this exact moment and is 24. The Marlins should try and trade for Adell right now IMO. That would be so awesome to bet on the pedigree??? They need to take shots on guys like that? Hiura sucks though. Yes, people miss on players - like how you liked Brinson, Diaz, and Harrison. And I very much thought Hermida was going to be Brian Giles, liked Joey Gathright to be a doubles machine, and this team should have signed BJ Upton and Didi Gregorious. But I think one should be objective. Your comments of just upgrade DLC are not objective based on what he brings and this team which is how this whole thing started. There is major upside here based on all the experts, so they need to find that out and it's baseball malpractice to not find that out. The result of what he does is really irrelevant as the process frankly matters most right now. It's why they said they want to heavily play him this offseason and they are right. We have maaaaaaaany things to bitch about, but he isn't one of them whether he just solidifies as a cheap 4th OF and he just maintains what he has been to date or best case he hits the 90th percentile projection and just becomes Teoscar. Because that upside exists and there are not many players in baseball we can say about that. I'm glad they do have DLC, Sanchez (hard hit rates), and Fortes (insane swing speed - see that athletic article) as they do offer some real longterm hope to get out of this offensive bog even if volatile (especially Sanchez). Which naturally gets back to - duh get a shortstop since they moved Jazz to CF.

Also in a no doubt ill-fated attempt to try and steer this back to the Marlins further, you also are maybe omitting the most important "2022 breakout" as this is still a Marlins message board - Brandon Marsh. Who we all (or most?) wanted for Pablo or a Meyer+ package. Guys can show up a year later. Yes his BABIP is fucking silly (.380, and .455 in this year), but he's starting to show a real huge upside with the hitting rates. The whole package may normalize by the summer has a .270 hitting absolute beast. I think he may be figuring it out sadly for us. (And same with Bohm. I love those guys). I mention because we would have all considered Marsh a bust based on what he and Pablo did last year, and then a year later things may change rapidly. And yes Marsh was a top 10 prospect at one point, so you don't need to mention that, but Gallen never was and he turned out pretty alright IMO. Because player's evolve and change and the Marlins need to find more guys with these breakout traits because the offense is terrible. DLC is one of them. Stories aren't written in 2 weeks.


Praying to god we can get back to bitching about where the hell are the Arraez and Luzardo extensions and why is Garret Hampson on this team. Frankly, I'd throw that to Lee and just call up Nunez or Hinojosa as why the fuck not because it's Garret Hampson. Sigh.

[fish16]

Higashioka paced over a 3+ WAR player last year. He was awesome??? Sign me up for Fortes doing that??? Jo Adell was hurt and is humorously slashing .347/.448/.939 at this exact moment and is 24. The Marlins should try and trade for Adell right now IMO. That would be so awesome to bet on the pedigree??? They need to take shots on guys like that? Hiura sucks though. Yes, people miss on players - like how you liked Brinson, Diaz, and Harrison. And I very much thought Hermida was going to be Brian Giles, liked Joey Gathright to be a doubles machine, and this team should have signed BJ Upton and Didi Gregorious. But I think one should be objective. Your comments of just upgrade DLC are not objective based on what he brings and this team which is how this whole thing started. There is major upside here based on all the experts, so they need to find that out and it's baseball malpractice to not find that out. The result of what he does is really irrelevant as the process frankly matters most right now. It's why they said they want to heavily play him this offseason and they are right. We have maaaaaaaany things to bitch about, but he isn't one of them whether he just solidifies as a cheap 4th OF and he just maintains what he has been to date or best case he hits the 90th percentile projection and just becomes Teoscar. Because that upside exists and there are not many players in baseball we can say about that. I'm glad they do have DLC, Sanchez (hard hit rates), and Fortes (insane swing speed - see that athletic article) as they do offer some real longterm hope to get out of this offensive bog even if volatile (especially Sanchez). Which naturally gets back to - duh get a shortstop since they moved Jazz to CF.

Also in a no doubt ill-fated attempt to try and steer this back to the Marlins further, you also are maybe omitting the most important "2022 breakout" as this is still a Marlins message board - Brandon Marsh. Who we all (or most?) wanted for Pablo or a Meyer+ package. Guys can show up a year later. Yes his BABIP is fucking silly (.380, and .455 in this year), but he's starting to show a real huge upside with the hitting rates. The whole package may normalize by the summer has a .270 hitting absolute beast. I think he may be figuring it out sadly for us. (And same with Bohm. I love those guys). I mention because we would have all considered Marsh a bust based on what he and Pablo did last year, and then a year later things may change rapidly. And yes Marsh was a top 10 prospect at one point, so you don't need to mention that, but Gallen never was and he turned out pretty alright IMO. Because player's evolve and change and the Marlins need to find more guys with these breakout traits because the offense is terrible. DLC is one of them. Stories aren't written in 2 weeks.


Praying to god we can get back to bitching about where the hell are the Arraez and Luzardo extensions and why is Garret Hampson on this team. Frankly, I'd throw that to Lee and just call up Nunez or Hinojosa as why the fuck not because it's Garret Hampson. Sigh.

higashikoa wasnt predicted as a breakout because of his defense, it was his offense, and he was terrible. Adell has been putting up a .900 OPS in AAA for 3 years. Id trade for him too, i was just using those guys as examples of consensus breakout candidates who don't hit. We can stop this, we will see in a few months what DLC is doing.