2023 Game Thread

[lou]

It’s simply not. The war you keep linking to on fangraphs includes everyone and doesn’t scale for plate appearances. Out of guys with even 500 at bats last year (dlc has almost a full 100 more than that for his career war of 1.5), 1.5 war would be 101 out of 132. It’s not remotely an impressive number over that number of at bats. Again, by the own trusted tool of fangraphs, they consider a league average starter to put up 2+ war in a season. Anything less is considered a role player, which is what dlc is. He’s a 4th outfielder

Sure, but this is also a message board and there isn't the time to extrapolate for injuries and call ups. Especially with the painful obviousness of where this lands. Everyone can't be a 2-3+ WAR starting player and guys below that aren't worthless. Checking out league wide numbers is a fine basis to see where one lands. Who also said it's an impressive number also? A 1.5 WAR guy is a solid player and not a world beater. Your comment was - he’s just not an above average player. Advanced stats don’t change the fact that he doesn’t produce much on the actual field. And then combine that with all the disparaging comments the entire offseason about him bemoaning how bad he was and not looking how he got to those numbers. This is frankly, the same criticism we say of Lee who tries to extrapolate single A numbers to the big leagues and 24 year old control specialists in A ball having better numbers than Eury at 19 in AA. How DLC got those numbers is important and I do hope that eventually resonates for you. Hence, his BABIP did normalize between the two surges which is very important. We can't discredit him for the hot streaks, when he was equally unlucky during the slump. He regressed to the mean. AND THEN he hits the ball exceptionally hard with speed, and this new stance looks to have unlocked more on top of that. That suggests his career line isn't a fluke, and the rates suggest there is more coming. That's what the underlying message is here. The FO was wrong saying he was the unluckiest guy in baseball last year as I believe the FO said that in preseason, but he was still pretty unlucky with those hard hit rates so they aren't wrong conceptually here. Who knows if he will unlock more, but that's why they play the game. What would be malpractice is if they don't play him and see what they have. This also goes for Sanchez and Fortes so you know. They need to heavily play those 3 guys.

So based on what he has actually done on the field (a 1.6 WAR in 614 PA), that is an above average MLB player for all guys rostered right now and certainly a starting calibre player. It's a full stop moment there and frankly, I wish the Marlins had many more 1.5+ WAR guys and I'm looking directly at Stallings, Fortes, Cooper, Berti, Wendle, DLC, Sanchez, Garcia, Soler, Cabrera, Garrett, Floro, Puk, and Scott when I say that. All those guys have that potential to get there (or collectively average into that) and imagine if they actually do it. That's effectively a 20+ WAR core without Jazz, Arraez, Sandy, Luzardo, Rogers, Cueto, and Segura. That's where you can start dreaming of those "88 win" projections if they add a major player at the deadline. So yea, these 1.5+ WAR per 600 PA paced guys are good players. Is that an above average starting OF per DLC? Probably not. But that's a fine third OF and guy batting 6th or 7th, or a very - very - good 4th OF. This guy is fine as-is which is important if they get nothing more, but there could be a lot more, so suggestions they need to upgrade him are a total huh comment. He's fine. I'm glad they have him as he offers some real position player hope.

[lou]

I would add that in 2021, when de la Cruz accumulated 1.1 of his 1.5 career WAR, his BABIP was. 380

Last year it was .304 and he hit .252/.294/.432.

At the end of the day, de la Cruz is a poor hitter with some pop that doesnt draw BBs, K's a ton, but can play all 3 outfield positions without embarrassing himself and give you that random HR.

Basically the definition of a 4th outfielder and there is nothing wrong with that. Teams need those.

He grades terrible in CF and RF, and above average in LF to quib. It might be a SSS as it's bizarre he's so bad in 2 spots but very good in another, but he's been exclusive in LF this year so far. The Marlins get it.

Also add 30 average points to last year's slash, as his career BABIP is 30 points higher and his hard hit/foot speed rates suggests it's not an outrageous BABIP fluctuation as those guys are high BABIP players. (Please note there may be more on top of that also with the new swing.) Does .280/.325/.475 get anyone's attention, because only 26 OF in baseball had an OPS over .800 last year (minimum 150 PA). And this is coming from a positive defensive LF.


I'm not saying this guy is going to do it, but to me, Marlins fan bias aside, he is one of the top 10 most intriguing guys in baseball right now for breakout purposes. He's up there with Bohm, Yandy, Nootbar, Kelenic, etc. as guys who might just really explode. Just saying here, typecasting this guy as a definition 4th OF is a bit of an undersell. They should play him everyday as a full time starter for 2 months IMO, and frankly, Garcia should be the one losing time as they should be playing Sanchez against nearly every RHP starter.

[lou]

Okert had 2 stellar rehab appearances and will be back friday. I'd guess Smeltzer goes down, which then begs the question- why the hell did they guarantee him 1 million to bring him up instead of just bringing one of the relievers on the 40 man up for a few days?

He's OOO. Smeltzer isn't going anywhere unless they want to burn money. Maybe they DFA him and don't care if someone else picks him up (which then removes the money) and just reassign to AAA though. And is just an expensive AAA insurance policy.

It's gearing up to this:

Floro, Chargois, Barnes, Enright
Puk, Scott, Okert, Smeltzer

Everyone is OOO or has an option and wouldn't send down (Puk, Chargois). With Garret then being the 14th pitcher and injury replacement for literally everyone and they reshuffle from there. So he could really be on the team the whole year as someone is always hurt. Archie/Brazoban/Soriano/Nardi/Nance are pitchers 15-19 as we wait for the bigger ones.

I do agree, the Smeltzer situation is strange. They must see something. They were ahead of the curve with Thompson, so I'm not casting stones as they are usually right with the pitchers.

[Nick]

He's OOO. Smeltzer isn't going anywhere unless they want to burn money. Maybe they DFA him and don't care if someone else picks him up (which then removes the money) and just reassign to AAA though. And is just an expensive AAA insurance policy.

It's gearing up to this:

Floro, Chargois, Barnes, Enright
Puk, Scott, Okert, Smeltzer

Everyone is OOO or has an option and wouldn't send down (Puk, Chargois). With Garret then being the 14th pitcher and injury replacement for literally everyone and they reshuffle from there. So he could really be on the team the whole year as someone is always hurt. Archie/Brazoban/Soriano/Nardi/Nance are pitchers 15-19 as we wait for the bigger ones.

I do agree, the Smeltzer situation is strange. They must see something. They were ahead of the curve with Thompson, so I'm not casting stones as they are usually right with the pitchers.

Were they though, or did they just luck into the best innings of his life? Cuz since he left, he had a bad year with the Pirates, and is now a AAA pitcher again.

[fish16]

Were they though, or did they just luck into the best innings of his life? Cuz since he left, he had a bad year with the Pirates, and is now a AAA pitcher again.

His XFip that year was 4.65. This whole idea that he was some revelation is not accurate. He got very lucky. Babip was 2.69. His ERA was a full 1.41 lower than his XFIP.

[fish16]

Sure, but this is also a message board and there isn't the time to extrapolate for injuries and call ups. Especially with the painful obviousness of where this lands. Everyone can't be a 2-3+ WAR starting player and guys below that aren't worthless. Checking out league wide numbers is a fine basis to see where one lands. Who also said it's an impressive number also? A 1.5 WAR guy is a solid player and not a world beater. Your comment was - he’s just not an above average player. Advanced stats don’t change the fact that he doesn’t produce much on the actual field. And then combine that with all the disparaging comments the entire offseason about him bemoaning how bad he was and not looking how he got to those numbers. This is frankly, the same criticism we say of Lee who tries to extrapolate single A numbers to the big leagues and 24 year old control specialists in A ball having better numbers than Eury at 19 in AA. How DLC got those numbers is important and I do hope that eventually resonates for you. Hence, his BABIP did normalize between the two surges which is very important. We can't discredit him for the hot streaks, when he was equally unlucky during the slump. He regressed to the mean. AND THEN he hits the ball exceptionally hard with speed, and this new stance looks to have unlocked more on top of that. That suggests his career line isn't a fluke, and the rates suggest there is more coming. That's what the underlying message is here. The FO was wrong saying he was the unluckiest guy in baseball last year as I believe the FO said that in preseason, but he was still pretty unlucky with those hard hit rates so they aren't wrong conceptually here. Who knows if he will unlock more, but that's why they play the game. What would be malpractice is if they don't play him and see what they have. This also goes for Sanchez and Fortes so you know. They need to heavily play those 3 guys.

So based on what he has actually done on the field (a 1.6 WAR in 614 PA), that is an above average MLB player for all guys rostered right now and certainly a starting calibre player. It's a full stop moment there and frankly, I wish the Marlins had many more 1.5+ WAR guys and I'm looking directly at Stallings, Fortes, Cooper, Berti, Wendle, DLC, Sanchez, Garcia, Soler, Cabrera, Garrett, Floro, Puk, and Scott when I say that. All those guys have that potential to get there (or collectively average into that) and imagine if they actually do it. That's effectively a 20+ WAR core without Jazz, Arraez, Sandy, Luzardo, Rogers, Cueto, and Segura. That's where you can start dreaming of those "88 win" projections if they add a major player at the deadline. So yea, these 1.5+ WAR per 600 PA paced guys are good players. Is that an above average starting OF per DLC? Probably not. But that's a fine third OF and guy batting 6th or 7th, or a very - very - good 4th OF. This guy is fine as-is which is important if they get nothing more, but there could be a lot more, so suggestions they need to upgrade him are a total huh comment. He's fine. I'm glad they have him as he offers some real position player hope.

Of course there isnt time, but saying 1.5 WAR would have been in the 70 range of WAR for outfielders last year is just flat out misrepresenting what that number means in the context of the league. 1.5 WAR over 600 PA's vs guys like stanton or even corbin carroll in limited time for example is not an even representation of what that production is. 1.5 WAR over 600 Pa's would not come close to the 70 range if you are comparing over equal playing time. No one has said he is worthless, just that he is a 4th OF and nothing more. They have no choice but to play him as starter, but that doesnt make him a starting caliber player in this league based off his production. Same situation as Wendle. He deserves to start based on this roster, but that doesnt make him a starting caliber player in the context of the entire league.

You continue try to point out his unluckiness. His career babip is .333. Over 600 plate appearances, it has evened out, and he has been a mediocre 1.6 WAR now over 600 plate appearances. This whole idea that he will have this change of luck and break out is again, just not based in reality.

And again, quite literally, there is nothing about 1.6 WAR in 614 Plate appearances that says thats an above average mlb player. An average starter is 2 WAR per year per the beloved fangraphs. He is less than that. He is what he is, a power hitting, terrible plate discipline, 4th OF being given starter's at bats because this team wont spend money. That doesnt make him a terrible non major league player like garrett hampson, but that also doesnt make him anything more than a 4th OF, which is exactly what i've been saying for months.

[lou]

Were they though, or did they just luck into the best innings of his life? Cuz since he left, he had a bad year with the Pirates, and is now a AAA pitcher again.

I think producing a 1.3 WAR pitcher out of nothing is pretty great. And despite others who singularly look at stats and don't view the whole picture, his xERA was 3.65 and FIP 3.69. He was very good in 2021, and even better that they churned him in a trade before falling apart. They have a pulse on the pitching. I mean even look at Armstrong, they were right on him and just cut him loose to soon. He ended up having a pretty good year. Bender was incredible, etc., etc. All I am saying here is - I think Smeltzer being promoted is interesting and strange especially with the money component. But they have a pretty good idea about the pitchers so unlike calling up Garret Hampson, they've earned my trust as there has to be a reason they like him. He has a very Bleier type profile, and if he does that over longer appearances, that's a very solid pitcher. Not sure how that fits into their plan here, and they should have a better right hander, but he may be more than nothing. Or maybe he doesn't work out. We'll see. I'm just not casting stones on their pitching moves.

[lou]

Of course there isnt time, but saying 1.5 WAR would have been in the 70 range of WAR for outfielders last year is just flat out misrepresenting what that number means in the context of the league. 1.5 WAR over 600 PA's vs guys like stanton or even corbin carroll in limited time for example is not an even representation of what that production is. 1.5 WAR over 600 Pa's would not come close to the 70 range if you are comparing over equal playing time. No one has said he is worthless, just that he is a 4th OF and nothing more. They have no choice but to play him as starter, but that doesnt make him a starting caliber player in this league based off his production. Same situation as Wendle. He deserves to start based on this roster, but that doesnt make him a starting caliber player in the context of the entire league.

You continue try to point out his unluckiness. His career babip is .333. Over 600 plate appearances, it has evened out, and he has been a mediocre 1.6 WAR now over 600 plate appearances. This whole idea that he will have this change of luck and break out is again, just not based in reality.

And again, quite literally, there is nothing about 1.6 WAR in 614 Plate appearances that says thats an above average mlb player. An average starter is 2 WAR per year per the beloved fangraphs. He is less than that. He is what he is, a power hitting, terrible plate discipline, 4th OF being given starter's at bats because this team wont spend money. That doesnt make him a terrible non major league player like garrett hampson, but that also doesnt make him anything more than a 4th OF, which is exactly what i've been saying for months.

Sounds good.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-breakou...andidates-2023
https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/its-ne...2023-sleepers/
https://theathletic.com/4192015/2023...breakout-bats/
https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/m...mpact-in-2023/
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/...e-la-cruz.html

[fish16]

Sounds good.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-breakou...andidates-2023
https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/its-ne...2023-sleepers/
https://theathletic.com/4192015/2023...breakout-bats/
https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/m...mpact-in-2023/
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/...e-la-cruz.html

read the article you posted and look at his baseball savant page so far this year. It's very similar to the deficiencies last year in striking out and not walking enough: "So, what is holding Bryan De La Cruz back?

While his 2022 strikeout rate is a bit above league average (25.4% vs. 22.4%), his 2022 walk rate is below league average (5.4% vs. 8.2%). However, a closer examination of De La Cruz’s walk rate shows a different story. De La Cruz generated 5 walks in his first 21 plate appearances (23.8%), and only 14 over and his next 334 plate appearances (4.2%). Thus, a limiting factor in De La Cruz’s offensive potential is his free-swing approach."

" He does strike out a fair amount without walking often, and that'll limit his on-base capability."


https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb

Unless he improves his plate discipline, he will continue to just be a 4th OF who hits the ball hard when he actually makes contact. Even with his peripherals last year, it was the same thing holding him back: plate discipline and his inability to draw walks.

[lou]

read the article you posted and look at his baseball savant page so far this year. It's very similar to the deficiencies last year in striking out and not walking enough: "So, what is holding Bryan De La Cruz back?

While his 2022 strikeout rate is a bit above league average (25.4% vs. 22.4%), his 2022 walk rate is below league average (5.4% vs. 8.2%). However, a closer examination of De La Cruz’s walk rate shows a different story. De La Cruz generated 5 walks in his first 21 plate appearances (23.8%), and only 14 over and his next 334 plate appearances (4.2%). Thus, a limiting factor in De La Cruz’s offensive potential is his free-swing approach."

" He does strike out a fair amount without walking often, and that'll limit his on-base capability."


https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb

Unless he improves his plate discipline, he will continue to just be a 4th OF who hits the ball hard when he actually makes contact. Even with his peripherals last year, it was the same thing holding him back: plate discipline and his inability to draw walks.

Do you have any concept of what a small sample size is regarding THIS year for the first comments? If you want to cite that, please reconcile is 10% BB rate this year in 11 games. I guess he's good now? Lee? Is that you?


He had the 15th highest expected batting average of all players last year (Arraez was 14th BTW), and 18th highest expected slugging. His xwOBA was 33rd. His expected slash last year was .287/.327/.498. His peripherals last year were incredible my dude. It's why literally every baseball mind loves him as a breakout candidate. Including the Marlins FO. I repeat, he had an expected OPS of .825 last year with a fair BABIP. At 26 with above average LF defense.

Do you want to know the players directly around him offensively in all of these categories for perspective:

Alec Bohm
Bryce Harper
Yandy Diaz
Luis Arraez
Wander Franco
Corey Seager
Rafael Devers
Ryan Mountcastle
Byron Buxton
Joc Pederson
Juan Soto
Teoscar Hernandez
Rafael Devers (again)
Pete Alonso
Trayce Thompson
Ronald Acuna
Matt Carpenter
Carlos Correa
Christian Walker
Kyle Tucker
Rafael Devers (again!)
Taylor Ward
Christian Walker (again)
Byron Buxton (again)
Jorge Polanco
Pete Alonso (again)
Jose Altuve
Kyle Tucker (again)
JD Davis
Will Smith
Anthony Santander
Teoscar Hernandez (again)

Strikeouts? He whiffed 25.4%. So then we look at:

Buxton - 30
Mountcastle - 25
Joc - 23
Teoscar - 28
Acuna - 23
Carpenter - 22
Davis - 33%

Yes many of those guys above whiff 5-10% less, these guys whiff the most. Obviously many more have much more power potential (Buxton especially) and other things going for them, but it's not like we are talking about DLC whiffing 35% of the time like Joey Gallo or even JD Davis. He is comping to this list, and more specifically the more truncated list comfortably performing while whiffing roughly 25% of the time.

Frankly, Teoscar may be the best comp here. Look what happened when he turned 27. And please note DLC is a better defender so he won't need to hit as much. - https://www.fangraphs.com/players/te...ts?position=OF

Teoscar is a 3.7 WAR per 600 PA player since the start of 2020. If DLC is 66% of that, this is a longterm starter and we will be talking buyouts in the offseason. To note, JD Davis is a 1.9 WAR per 600 PA for his career. This is probably the floor.


No normal person looks at this and wants to improve on this player or goes on an offseason long rampage about him. It's why literally every publication disagrees with you. That list is just banger after banger of a player and yes, I am not here to suggest DLC is ever becoming Devers, Soto, Buxton, or Alonso. But why the fuck can't he be Joc or Teoscar? As frankly, that is well within the realm of possibility here. And if he is JD Davis? Fucking great. 5 year starter in LF right there.

[rmc523]

Round and round we go! Weeeee

[fish16]

i'm done with the conversation after this for everyone's sake. It will be the same thing until he sees the light that the guy is a 4th of playing every day. He talks about other people going off a small sample size when everything about DLC is based on a two week meaningless period when every other aspect of his career has been thoroughly mediocre. FOR 10 FULL SEASONS. He's been the same exact player at every level outside of 1 year. His OPS by year in the minors: .704, .581, .727, .625, .742, .768, then 262 at bats one of the best hitters league in the minors where he put up an .880 OPS.

For context here are some guys on that team in that ballpark and their numbers that year: DLC: .880 OPS. Taylor Jones (AAAA player, career big league OPS of .655 in limited sample) :1.009, Jose Siri (big leaguer for his defense, career OPS in the big leagues of .674): .921. Now MArlins AAA player CJ Hinojosa: OPS of .832. Astros CF Jake Meyers (major league ops of .656) put up a 1.006.

Outside of the 2 week period last year, DLC never had any impressive minor league seasons in the context of where he was playing. Every guy you compare him to as a late bloomer always has minor league track records of at least impressive success. Even including the ridiculous outlier compared to the rest of his career, over 3 years here, he is exactly what he was in the minors: .268 BA, .318 OBP, .444 Slugging, and .744 OPS. His minor league overall numbers: .277, .346 OBP, .397 slugging .743 OPS and a terrible 38 steals in 66 chances. It is what he has been his entire career at every level.

Teoscar Hernandez for comparison career minor league numbers: .269, .338, .459 slugging, .797 OPS, plus 173 steals.

Yes, the advanced stats like him because he hits the ball hard. Unfortunately he does not walk, and he strikes out too much to ever be a starting OF longterm and make those expected numbers come to fruition. It's a great skill set for a 4th OF, theres nothing wrong with that. But there is no giant breakout coming that will make him a long term starting piece. He is what he has always been at every level. When someone tells you who they are over the course of close to 10 years, believe them. You'll see soon enough, and that doesnt mean he's a bad player.

[Lee Stone]

For what it's worth, De La Cruz managed a .632 OPS for 138 plate appearances in the 2023 Dominican Winter League.

[fish16]

also, this idea that bryan de la cruz is anything other than below average to maybe average defensively is not borne out by his actual numbers. Fangraphs has him -1 OAA in both LF and RF for his career, and -2 in CF for his career, obviously for a total of -4 OAA overall. His UZR/150 was mediocre as well at 3.6, -7.4 overall because he stinks in RF and CF. The last 2 years, they had him overall at -6.6 last year and already -1.6 this year.

He has a strong arm and has middling sprint speed, but his overall outs above average was in the 23rd percentile last year, and the 3rd percentile way too early this year.

[Nick]

I’m done with this conversation.

*writes 7 more paragraphs on the subject*