2023 Game Thread

[rmc523]

Payroll is roughly $92m+, so that $81m figure is not accurate. Getting to the $120-125m threshold (which is where I wanted them to land all offseason - effectively Correa and a good RHP RP or Drury or trading for Reynolds or Rosario would have gotten them there) is roughly the $30m I think they need to spend..... which is roughly $50m in FA money for 2024 (assuming Soler opt-out and Cueto option not picked up, Berti picked up) as this scales down to around $74m (give or take) for 21+ guys.

Tough to play hindsight, but I think after 2020 would be premature unless they really committed to payroll. For me, it would be post 2021 and REALLY post 2022. We can just hope the pitchers stay healthy so there is a radical mindshift for 2024. Like I said - there is faint shimmer of hope in the distance they get through this year healthy enough and everyone generally does what we expect. They will be really set up if that happens with an even lower payroll than right now. So this targets plainly on Bruce - is NOW when we spend as I am really out if this picture I have painted happens and they still put forth a BS team with clear 2-3 holes.

Well, I guess Baseball Reference and Sportrac are wrong with their $81M figures.

[lou]

No team is giving up anything of use to us for a defensive first backup C who cant hit worth shit.

And yet that defensive first backup C is who starts for the world series champions. Teams will value a veteran. If he plays like 2019-2021, he's going to recoup Nicolas and Scott easily, or is just good to keep for another year with a sneaky good C combo.

We have a lot to complain about, this isn't one of them. I'm going to keep saying it in different ways - Fortes will eat what he kills this year and this will easily play itself out on the field. He will get his and this will be fine and you won't be angry about Fortes playing time distribution.

[lou]

Well, I guess Baseball Reference and Sportrac are wrong with their $81M figures.

Sportrac has $88.5 but aren't counting Stanton and Aguilar's buyout. So they do agree it is roughly $91-92m give or take if those are included. Baseball reference is missing the CC players and the dead money. That one is easy to see. Their system is set up bad.

The only real payroll discrepancy I see is what are they actually paying for Stanton. Fangraphs (roster resources) has different numbers than Baseball reference and Cots, so while looking at this more deeply, maybe $3m should come off of this. Fangraphs may have Stanton rate's for computing luxury tax thresholds versus actual payroll. I am going to side with Cots here as backup for the Sportrac estimation. That seems more accurate than Fangraphs who has some clear problems (they have it over $100m which is pretty easy to negate).


TLDR - Sportrac would win the price is right at $88.5m, they may be missing a whatever couple hundred of thousand on a buyout but maybe that was technically paid last year. Payroll is probably give/take $89m right now, with the team having a higher luxury computation that does not matter as they are nowhere near it. So for purposes of all of the above, yea if Bruce were to spend $120m, they could have likely afford Correa and a second guy under $10m (Rosario or Reynolds or major RHP set up guy or Drury) - with some Correa deferral money. This would lower a soft estimate for 20-22 guys next year to $70-72m, and presumably, all the guys needed would be bats. There is the glimmer of hope. $70-72m needing 4-6 bats (2 major) and maybe having a major arm to trade on top.

[Namaste]

Alternatively, maybe we do want the Maddawg 49 win season so Bruce just sells the team..

I laughed so hard at this my eyes teared up

[Namaste]

I hate starting to feel like the season is over 5 games in.

It’s easy to stop feeling this way.

Repeat after me:

”there are 157 games left”

”we opened the season vs the Out Of This Milky Way Payroll Mets and went 4 for 27 with RISP (a pace very hard to maintain over 162 games), and then played the undefeated Twins and we started a guy who was clearly injured against them”

”there are 157 games left”

Feel a little bit better yet?

[rmc523]

It’s easy to stop feeling this way.

Repeat after me:

”there are 157 games left”

”we opened the season vs the Out Of This Milky Way Payroll Mets and went 4 for 27 with RISP (a pace very hard to maintain over 162 games), and then played the undefeated Twins and we started a guy who was clearly injured against them”

”there are 157 games left”

Feel a little bit better yet?

Haha, nah. We're doomed, the sky is falling!

I know the season isn't over. But I'm in the mode of if they go down too much, I'm turning it off.....I'm not wasting my time if they have no chance of coming back. I get the scoring alerts....if they start coming back some I may tune back in, but otherwise...

[Lee Stone]

Not feeling anything other than regret. Seeing Nasim hit leadoff would help, but we are kind of seeing a worst case scenario thus far. Spring training got us ready for this.

[fish16]

Not feeling anything other than regret. Seeing Nasim hit leadoff would help, but we are kind of seeing a worst case scenario thus far. Spring training got us ready for this.

dude give me a break. Nasim nunez is nowhere close to major league ready. he isnt even AA ready.

[fish16]

It’s easy to stop feeling this way.

Repeat after me:

”there are 157 games left”

”we opened the season vs the Out Of This Milky Way Payroll Mets and went 4 for 27 with RISP (a pace very hard to maintain over 162 games), and then played the undefeated Twins and we started a guy who was clearly injured against them”

”there are 157 games left”

Feel a little bit better yet?

this should be the mindset. it's been a rough 5 games, but we've played 2 of the best teams in the league and realistically, as painful as it has been in big spots, the hitting has indeed been improved. It's been the SP that's been shaky and it will be fine. Sandy wasn't himself and will be better tonight. Luzardo was great, just too many walks. Cabrera didnt have his control, Rogers had a dropped double play that would have gotten himself out of issues and then had an error himself. It's just a small sample size. but so far the lineup has been middle of the pack, much better than last year thanks to arraez being an amazing pure hitter. It will get better. Circle back and see where we are the beginning of may and then we can really make some determinations on the issues.

Id start with moving jazz back up to 1st or 2nd and be the table setter for cooper and soler. Segura has hit balls hard, just right at people at the wrong time. He's got a .111 BABIP through 5 games. he will cut down the k's and be fine with better luck. His exit velocity is right in line with where it has been his whole career. The crazy thing with him is he currently has a laughable 100% ground ball rate. He hasnt had a single fly ball. He is the least of my concerns. My big concern is garcia not being unplayable, figuring out a competent SS, and giving Fortes the majority of the C plate appearances.

[lou]

dude give me a break. Nasim nunez is nowhere close to major league ready. he isnt even AA ready.

Don't yell at him, Lee is dropping some of the best content of the season with that

[rmc523]

Cueto AND Wendle going on the IL. Garrett Hampson called up

[fish16]

stallings starting yet again, now 4 times in the 6 games. thank god he's catching sandy, god only knows how far sandy would fall off without stallings behind the plate.

[sports24/7]

Did you see the crowd last night? Fans aren't exactly sticking with it. They will justify another re-build with "well no one is showing up anyway." The window to spend money and show the fanbase that they're different and going to invest in the team and invest in winning has come and almost past at this point.

Oh, I agree. I don't think the status quo route will keep or develop fans, either. I think they are approaching a point where the fan base will get as apathetic as its ever been towards this team, and maybe that's even worse that driving fans away with a rebuild. But I can totally see themselves rationalizing that route to themselves like they've been doing for the last few years.

[sports24/7]

Kim should be fired for one thing. I don't care about the whole clock starting/this is her first full offseason w/out Jeter & co around. She's shown enough that she's not up for the job.

They don't care about PR. If they did, they'd have signed people.

They care about PR, just not enough to spend money. The problem is (other than being cheap or just not having the money necessary to own a competitive baseball team in this market) they've convinced themselves that doing it this way can work. If the players they added last year (Soler, Garcia, and Stallings) just become the best versions of themselves, all of the pitchers develop to their ceilings, Jazz has no setbacks on his way to being a star, Arraez continues to have one of the best hit tools in baseball, guys like Segura and Gurriel give them production, a handful of the relievers they have work out, and eventually they develop some hitting prospects, they'll be a real playoff contender. And if all of that happens, they obviously will. The problem is the likelihood of that happening is incredibly low, and they just won't let themselves believe that.

[sports24/7]

Well first, this is a rebuild (build?) year no matter what anyone thought. I accepted this in October absent a "Correa" level event. I think most fans who understand baseball get this, including most here. So if this is a rebuilding year, what do you do? Keep rebuilding. The W/L doesn't matter as ultimately, the player progression and more importantly innings potential on the SP is what matters most. That being said, it will be real nice if they can play a "competitive 79 win" season.

As for what's next/keep lying to yourself, ignore all the SSS performances and BS. They'll have this next year for roughly $74m. I think we all agree this group of guys are going to all get shots.

Fortes, ______ (possibly Allen, Banfield, McIntosh for a CC backup)
Arraez, _______* (Berry looming for 1B or DH)
Segura
______, ______ (possibly Amaya or Nasim)
Berti, Groshans
DLC/Sanchez/Burdick/Jerar (assume 1 works out as a fine 4th OF floor)
Jazz
_______, Garcia (possibly DLC, Sanchez, Burdick)

Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Rogers, Eury (and Fulton)
Meyer, Bender, Chargois, Enright, Sixto (and various other RHP reliever types)
Puk, Garrett, Eder (and Castano, Nardi, Simpson, other RP types)

Dead money - Barnes, Cueto (assume opt-outs), and Stanton deferral (until 2027 to note)

*I am assuming Soler also has a good year and is traded/opt outs so scale this to $83m if he remains

Deadline trade potential - Stallings, Cooper, Yuli, Soler, Cueto, Barnes, Floro, Scott, and Okert. Say what we will about this group, but if they trade them and move 1/3rd of their collective salaries, they save $10m off 2022. Floor, they should be able to move $6-7m here even if they retain a few into the offseason. This moves 2023 overall payroll to around $82-85m post-trades (they are roughly around $92m right now and don't be gaslighted by incorrect Miami Herald/Fangraphs roster resource reports). I mention this because, maybe they carry-over that "savings" to 2024. I know - I KNOW - but just saying.

Also Meyer/Bender may need some MiLB time, but I would tend to think they will find CC replacements, or carry 4 lefty relievers, etc. And make that all work out. Especially because I am assuming they will hammer the trade deadline for RHP relievers. That will work itself out IMO.



So regardless of what happens "NOW," you're sitting on $74m and need probably 5 bats (maybe less if multiple of DLC/Sanchez/Burdick/Jerar/Amaya/Allen/Banfield/Nasim work out), and two of those need to be total STUDS - presumably a SS and then really anywhere and move players around as Arraez, Segura, Berti, and Jazz can go kind of anywhere. It might practically make the most sense to get a CF here too. If all the SP holds up, that probably turns into a trade for one of them (Alek Thomas? They have too many lefties and need pitching still). They'll have to expend most budget on a second one (Rosario?) in free agency on a top level "2nd class" FA, and then we're looking at a home-town discount for Cooper, and just giving Amaya and a CC backup catcher (or Yuli/Iglesias level FA) the job to save money. This is all easily doable under $100m, and if the trade deadline money is a contingency budget, there is a little more to play with. Are those the world beater offensive forces they need? No, but look at that pitching staff if it stays intact and if the pitching does move into top 5 and out of "solidly above average" and the batting is "slightly above average" - they will have a chance.

Of course, then we will be bitching about - it's a $100m payroll, sign a fucking real SP (Montas? Manaea?) for a few years and then move out another SP for another upgrade somewhere else and just scale budget to $120m, but this all goes back to Bruce. Nothing is going to probably change unless Berry and Cappe meteorically rise to become Volpe and Peraza level prospects next year, unless Bruce starts spending $120-140m. They need those last 2-3 guys they'd fit in with that extra $30-50m in budget, and that's that. This team with Correa, Rafael Montero, and Michael Taylor (and then trading Cooper/DLC/Sanchez for another RHP reliever) would be significantly better, and they could have done that easily under $129m to have the 19th highest payroll in baseball (Seattle 18th in payroll just above $129m).


TLDR - they will keep believing in the SP for next year even if they are terrible this year, and they aren't necessarily wrong so they'll just use resources to keep getting more bats and pray


I also want to point out the Marlins are spending more than Cleveland and Tampa, so should we be more or less frustrated than those fan bases, as imagine those teams spending another $30-40m on ridiculous luxury upgrades.

The problem is, they're only rebuilding in the standings. If you're not actually operating like a rebuilding team, you're not actually rebuilding. And they're not operating like a rebuilding team, they're acting like a team half-heartedly trying to win.