2023 Game Thread

[lou]

I guess....but as usual, we're counting on an "everything goes right" scenario....which almost never happens.

Basically yes - they need to avoid a major arm injury from call it Sandy, Luzardo, Rogers, Eury, Cabrera, Meyer, Bender, Puk, Eder, Fulton, and have suitable middle relievers after them. We get that, even if all the bats fail and all they have is Fortes, Arraez, Segura, Berti, Jazz, and Berry, I do think you can turn around that train FAST with that pitching when you have a $74m payroll and plenty of minor league depth to trade.

Bruce says "$128m" in 2024 and clear half the top 12 prospects in the farm to get 3-5 bats, and here's all the money you want for IFA and we'll bid for a Japanese/Korean guy on top, to supplant depth, and they are in business very very fast. Faint shimmers here. Hopefully no more Eder, Meyer, Bender, and Poteet set backs.

[lou]

it's not just ok for him to have more ab's. He should be the everyday catcher starting 120 games. There is no reason for stallings to play other than rest. It's not enough for it to just be a time share with fortes starting more often. Fortes should be playing every single day other than rest days. Stallings after today because sandy is pitching will have started 4 of the 6 games. Enough with the guy already. He is complete trash. He is unplayable. His at bats are not even competitive. He would put up mediocre numbers in AAA. It's not extremely far down the list. We have a catcher who can be a decent hitter on a team that desperately needs hitting. And we refuse to make him the full time starting catcher. It's not a panacea, but it will absolutely help on a nightly basis to have a guy who can actually hit as opposed to a jeff mathis type wasting plate appearances consistently. The SS position is already going to be a black hole in this lineup, and Garcia might very well have another terrible season (though ill give him more time), but with stallings and the SS position it's 2 positions that will provide 0 production. It's why i said fangraphs was on crack with the WAR projections for SS and for stallings himself. If they think stallings is providing 2 WAR they are absurdly wrong. The guy is a terrible major league player. There is no amount of defense that makes that bat playable. And the fact that they are choosing to play him so often when they have a good young player in fortes is just compounding the issue.

I'll up this for you - Fortes will have "plenty" of more PA than Stallings by the end of the year and you won't be angry about their playing time distribution. That's my position.

This isn't a top 10 angry thing for the organization IMO

[rmc523]

Yea - I don't think the window to spend money and show the fanbase that they're different and going to invest has come and almost past. They do have time still. I do think I will agree with that though, if this "perfect storm" develops that I've been musing - all the pitchers work out and they have the brutal top 13 we hope and still don't do anything more than a Segura signing.

If this is the predominant pitching staff next year and they don't heavily invest in call in 2 major bats, and at least 1 more Segura, yes. Get out of here. I'm with you. I'm going to become a Mariners fan or something.

Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Rogers, Eury (and Fulton)
Meyer, Bender, Chargois, Enright, Sixto (and various other RHP reliever types)
Puk, Garrett, Eder (and Castano, Nardi, Simpson, other RP types)

You have that as the core team and dick around with the bats, get out of here.

So basically if they don't solve the same problem they've had/not addressed the last 2 years....

Yes, but an old catcher isn't that player. And, that would have been many years too early.

I think it was Correa, Swanson, Turner, Boegarts, Nimmo, or Rodon this year. Maybe even Edwin Diaz (thank god) + just unload for Reynolds and Bednar and resign everyone. Those would have been real splashes as the main move with Arraez being quite the 2nd big one.

Frankly, this kind of move doesn't exist next year. Rosario could be good for SS, but he's not that class of guys above. I don't think they can overspend next year unless it is a SP. Which is fine, but obviously that creates moving parts where they will have to trade for me.

They really, really, blew it this year not getting one of those SS. Maybe they surprise us with something at the deadline.

It's "many years too early" only in hindsight. Sign him, and your team does better that next year, which in turn inclines some of these other guys to sign here too "hey, that team is starting to do well/win and I want to/get to play with Realmuto! I'll play there over similar offer B!" That then means we would've been better last year, etc.

This offseason was a failure because they didn't sign a SS....they made some good moves, but not enough.

[fish16]

I'll up this for you - Fortes will have "plenty" of more PA than Stallings by the end of the year and you won't be angry about their playing time distribution. That's my position.

This isn't a top 10 angry thing for the organization IMO

except that he wont if you listen to Schumaker's words the same way you took them as gospel for DLC's playing time. He flat out said it wont be 50/50 but both will play a lot of games. It's inexcusable. They desperately need hitting. Fortes for his career in 281 PA's has a .752 OPS, and he actually provides some pop. Stallings had 16 XBHs all of last year. That is pathetically bad. He provides literally nothing at the plate. His at bats are not remotely competitive. There is no occasional pop, he does not walk, he strikes out too much, He is a flat out negative hitter. It is inexcusable to still be using his defense as a reason to play him. Fortes has graded out positively as a defender for his career. Stallings was a negative defender last year. Every time they decide to play Stallings they are choosing to actively make the lineup worse that day. It absolutely is a top 10 angry thing for the organization if Stallings plays more than 50 games this year. Every time he plays you are going from a decent to above average hitter at the catcher position to a complete 0. On a team that desperately needs hitting.

On a 162 game pace per baseball reference, Fortes for his career extrapolated is 25 hr's, 60 rbi's, .752 OPS, 110 OPS+. He is a productive hitter on a team desperately craving hitting and run production.

[lou]

So basically if they don't solve the same problem they've had/not addressed the last 2 years....

It's "many years too early" only in hindsight. Sign him, and your team does better that next year, which in turn inclines some of these other guys to sign here too "hey, that team is starting to do well/win and I want to/get to play with Realmuto! I'll play there over similar offer B!" That then means we would've been better last year, etc.

This offseason was a failure because they didn't sign a SS....they made some good moves, but not enough.

Sure, but is there budget for that in the bold? All roads lead to Bruce here?

But big picture, is the pitching ready? We all want it to be, but it's probbaly not. Jeff Lindgren just threw significant innings 5 games into the year, and a multitude of guys (Meyer, Sixto, Bender, Eder, now Cueto, and lesser extent guys like Okert and Enright) are all hurt. Low-innings potential of Luzardo, Cabrera, Rogers, and Garret "this" year. The icing on the cake is - Eury is likely not ready. The pitching just is not ready by all indications - yet. This could change rapidly by opening day 2024. Maybe it will never be and they get 2 more arm blow outs this year and the next post is, they have to wait to 2025 now/endless cycle because Rogers and Cabrera are hurt, but big picture, yes they still need those 2+ bats (plus subsidiary ones) and it's the same problem as these last two years. But the pitching dynamic is changing and Arraez is big piece. I do think they are on the right path for that shimmer of hope, it is just EXTREMELY slow with not investing on top of it.

Imagine a real owner with THIS team after having league low payrolls for 5 seasons. They could have signed Corra/Turner, Nimmo, Rodon, R. Montero, Chafin, liquidated more minors for Reynolds, and still obtained Arraez, Segura, Puk, etc...... and get ready to bang your head on a wall - that team would just barely be top 10 in payroll (9th) and would be 4th highest in the NL East (assuming Mets would just spend elsewhere, etc.). I'd call them a wild card team instantly - for years.

[lou]

except that he wont if you listen to Schumaker's words the same way you took them as gospel for DLC's playing time. He flat out said it wont be 50/50 but both will play a lot of games. It's inexcusable. They desperately need hitting. Fortes for his career in 281 PA's has a .752 OPS, and he actually provides some pop. Stallings had 16 XBHs all of last year. That is pathetically bad. He provides literally nothing at the plate. His at bats are not remotely competitive. There is no occasional pop, he does not walk, he strikes out too much, He is a flat out negative hitter. It is inexcusable to still be using his defense as a reason to play him. Fortes has graded out positively as a defender for his career. Stallings was a negative defender last year. Every time they decide to play Stallings they are choosing to actively make the lineup worse that day. It absolutely is a top 10 angry thing for the organization if Stallings plays more than 50 games this year. Every time he plays you are going from a decent to above average hitter at the catcher position to a complete 0. On a team that desperately needs hitting.

On a 162 game pace per baseball reference, Fortes for his career extrapolated is 25 hr's, 60 rbi's, .752 OPS, 110 OPS+. He is a productive hitter on a team desperately craving hitting and run production.

When we get to the end of the year and Fortes has mid-400 PA and Stallings low-300 PA, just remember all of this anger. That is going to happen (absent injury).

[rmc523]

Basically yes - they need to avoid a major arm injury from call it Sandy, Luzardo, Rogers, Eury, Cabrera, Meyer, Bender, Puk, Eder, Fulton, and have suitable middle relievers after them. We get that, even if all the bats fail and all they have is Fortes, Arraez, Segura, Berti, Jazz, and Berry, I do think you can turn around that train FAST with that pitching when you have a $74m payroll and plenty of minor league depth to trade.

Bruce says "$128m" in 2024 and clear half the top 12 prospects in the farm to get 3-5 bats, and here's all the money you want for IFA and we'll bid for a Japanese/Korean guy on top, to supplant depth, and they are in business very very fast. Faint shimmers here. Hopefully no more Eder, Meyer, Bender, and Poteet set backs.

YOu're in fantasy land if you think Bruce is adding $50M just because.

[rmc523]

Sure, but is there budget for that in the bold? All roads lead to Bruce here?

But big picture, is the pitching ready? We all want it to be, but it's probbaly not. Jeff Lindgren just threw significant innings 5 games into the year, and a multitude of guys (Meyer, Sixto, Bender, Eder, now Cueto, and lesser extent guys like Okert and Enright) are all hurt. Low-innings potential of Luzardo, Cabrera, Rogers, and Garret "this" year. The icing on the cake is - Eury is likely not ready. The pitching just is not ready by all indications - yet. This could change rapidly by opening day 2024. Maybe it will never be and they get 2 more arm blow outs this year and the next post is, they have to wait to 2025 now/endless cycle because Rogers and Cabrera are hurt, but big picture, yes they still need those 2+ bats (plus subsidiary ones) and it's the same problem as these last two years. But the pitching dynamic is changing and Arraez is big piece. I do think they are on the right path for that shimmer of hope, it is just EXTREMELY slow with not investing on top of it.

Imagine a real owner with THIS team after having league low payrolls for 5 seasons. They could have signed Corra/Turner, Nimmo, Rodon, R. Montero, Chafin, liquidated more minors for Reynolds, and still obtained Arraez, Segura, Puk, etc...... and get ready to bang your head on a wall - that team would just barely be top 10 in payroll (9th) and would be 4th highest in the NL East (assuming Mets would just spend elsewhere, etc.). I'd call them a wild card team instantly - for years.

You just proposed a $50M payroll jump for next year, but my suggestion of signing an extra guy or two over the last couple of years is outrageous?

[lou]

You just proposed a $50M payroll jump for next year, but my suggestion of signing an extra guy or two over the last couple of years is outrageous?

You're misinterpreting this. It would be a maybe $30m jump in payroll for next year, and no I'm not sure Bruce would even get to the $120m threshold, let alone $130m to get to "the Mariners." Frankly, they may not even need to spend that much depending on this year (do DLC and Sanchez work out?) so it's a wait and see. And yes, I think signing multiple $20m players post 2020 would have been a mistake. They weren't ready. Unless of course we're talking a $150-170m payroll and go for it. The failures start in mid 2021 for me, and escalate rapidly into and through 2022 not getting those "2" more bats they need.

So the question was, what happens next - sit on the pitching and see what happens. Frankly, it is the only thing they can do absent Bruce dumping minimum $30m more into team payroll next year. And they may have to do that anyways.

[lou]

BTW, the Phillies are winless and have a worse run differential.

Small sample size.

[fish16]

When we get to the end of the year and Fortes has mid-400 PA and Stallings low-300 PA, just remember all of this anger. That is going to happen (absent injury).

Exactly, that is going to happen, and in no rational world should that be happening. that is way too many pa's for Stallings. He should not be starting anywhere near that many games. That's just below last year's level of Pa's when he was essentially the full time starter. Fortes should be starting at least 4X a week, preferably 5. He is a significantly better player, in general and for this team. Stallings getting that many plate appearances to be terrible would be a horrific situation. He should be at max 200 ab's. And that's at max. Fortes should be starting 120 games if he is healthy.

Also, this idea that Stallings is going to start less games than fortes to the point of getting less than 100 PA's than him is just not born out by reality. The guy is about to start his 4th game out of 6. They have done nothing to show that Fortes is the starting catcher most days as he should be.

[lou]

that is way too many pa's for Stallings. He should not be starting anywhere near that many games. That's just below last year's level of Pa's when he was essentially the full time starter. Fortes should be starting at least 4X a week, preferably 5. He is a significantly better player, in general and for this team. Stallings getting that many plate appearances to be terrible would be a horrific situation. He should be at max 200 ab's. And that's at max. Fortes should be starting 120 games if he is healthy.

Only 7 catchers played over 120 games last year.

A 92 / 70 distribution of starts is more than fine for a normal catcher platoon to keep everyone fresh. Get Fortes another 20 games at 1B/DH. There is space. At most, scale it another 10 games in catcher starts for Fortes if you want to drop Stallings to effectively "twice a week."

You don't want these guys banged up. It's a hard position, and likely harder this year with the running which is happening. Fortes is still a pup also, plus in a best and worst case scenario, they do want to see if Stallings does improve a bit as he'll be useful or a perfect deadline trade to someone.

As for Fortes - just hit baby. He'll get the time if he keeps this up.

[rmc523]

You're misinterpreting this. It would be a maybe $30m jump in payroll for next year, and no I'm not sure Bruce would even get to the $120m threshold, let alone $130m to get to "the Mariners." Frankly, they may not even need to spend that much depending on this year (do DLC and Sanchez work out?) so it's a wait and see. And yes, I think signing multiple $20m players post 2020 would have been a mistake. They weren't ready. Unless of course we're talking a $150-170m payroll and go for it. The failures start in mid 2021 for me, and escalate rapidly into and through 2022 not getting those "2" more bats they need.

So the question was, what happens next - sit on the pitching and see what happens. Frankly, it is the only thing they can do absent Bruce dumping minimum $30m more into team payroll next year. And they may have to do that anyways.

Payroll this year is $81M. You literally said "if Bruce says $128M" 128-81 = 47M over this year's payroll.

I didn't say multiple 20M after 2020. I was talking Realmuto plus smaller pieces that year, and a domino effect on future seasons of better quality guys wanting to come here on some of the deals we offered.....plus theoretically those better signings would've meant we didn't get stuck with Garcia and Soler's overpriced deals.

[fish16]

Only 7 catchers played over 120 games last year.

A 92 / 70 distribution of starts is more than fine for a normal catcher platoon to keep everyone fresh. Get Fortes another 20 games at 1B/DH. There is space. At most, scale it another 10 games in catcher starts for Fortes if you want to drop Stallings to effectively "twice a week."

You don't want these guys banged up. It's a hard position, and likely harder this year with the running which is happening. Fortes is still a pup also, plus in a best and worst case scenario, they do want to see if Stallings does improve a bit as he'll be useful or a perfect deadline trade to someone.

As for Fortes - just hit baby. He'll get the time if he keeps this up.

only 7 catchers played over 120 games because there are few really quality catchers, or teams have 2 similar options or a good platoon mix. Id venture to guess that teams with severe differentials in their catchers abilities have similar number of starts. Im not saying start fortes 140 games, but there is no reason why he shouldnt be starting 2/3 to 3/4 of the games. We will see what the season shows us, but as of now they have shown no indication that fortes is even going to start 50% of the games let alone close to 100 starts, which he should be getting and more. He is a flat out much better player, he should be starting 110-120 games at C. the only times he should not be playing is for the occasional rest day and the day games after night games.

If you take a look at the ones who actually did play that many games, most were putting up similar or worse numbers than Fortes' career numbers. Obviously not the top 5 or so, but below that Fortes's numbers are comparable to the 6-15 level of catcher, and those guys are playing over 110 games or so, We're talking Jonah Heim, Cal Raleigh, Cristian Vazquez,

Again, im not saying Fortes play 139 games like JT, but he is so far and away better than Stallings, it is ridiculous for him not to be playing 110-120 starts at C

And give me a break with the Stallings improving bullshit. He is fucking awful. He has always been an awful hitter. No team is giving up anything of use to us for a defensive first backup C who cant hit worth shit. This is not a normal catcher platoon situation, Fortes is significantly better. Stallings cant hit himself out of a wet paper bag. Get his ass out of the lineup for anything other than giving fortes a rest day.

[lou]

Payroll this year is $81M. You literally said "if Bruce says $128M" 128-81 = 47M over this year's payroll.

I didn't say multiple 20M after 2020. I was talking Realmuto plus smaller pieces that year, and a domino effect on future seasons of better quality guys wanting to come here on some of the deals we offered.....plus theoretically those better signings would've meant we didn't get stuck with Garcia and Soler's overpriced deals.

Payroll is roughly $92m+, so that $81m figure is not accurate. Getting to the $120-125m threshold (which is where I wanted them to land all offseason - effectively Correa and a good RHP RP or Drury or trading for Reynolds or Rosario would have gotten them there) is roughly the $30m I think they need to spend..... which is roughly $50m in FA money for 2024 (assuming Soler opt-out and Cueto option not picked up, Berti picked up) as this scales down to around $74m (give or take) for 21+ guys.

Tough to play hindsight, but I think after 2020 would be premature unless they really committed to payroll. For me, it would be post 2021 and REALLY post 2022. We can just hope the pitchers stay healthy so there is a radical mindshift for 2024. Like I said - there is faint shimmer of hope in the distance they get through this year healthy enough and everyone generally does what we expect. They will be really set up if that happens with an even lower payroll than right now. So this targets plainly on Bruce - is NOW when we spend as I am really out if this picture I have painted happens and they still put forth a BS team with clear 2-3 holes.