2023 Game Thread

[fish16]

Brian Anderson leads baseball with 10 rbi and is tied for the lead with 3 homers

Nevermind, Bryan reynolds took the lead for home runs lol

[fish16]

Given how much quicker games are now, can they please make the game time back at 710. It’s almost impossible for people to leave work on time from broward and palm beach and get there in time

[Nick]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/szymbors...ates-pitchers/

FanGraphs with another gem. Bust Candidate Sandy Alcantara! Great timing guys!

[lou]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/szymbors...ates-pitchers/

FanGraphs with another gem. Bust Candidate Sandy Alcantara! Great timing guys!

Not sure if you read it, but they are probably right. He had a 5.7 WAR last year and he's unlikely to repeat that - they give an 80% chance he won't do that. They have him pretty much as a floor 4.5 WAR SP (median 50th percentile rate) with room to grow. Which is roughly a top 9-12 SP in baseball based on the last 5 seasons versus a 2022 top 5 SP. There is validity in that there is no more shift and he isn't a 10+ K/9 guy so (a lot) more singles may be coming. That ignores the Jazz/Arraez and Rojas/whoever defensive downgrades too. So yea, the "bust" is he's the 10th best SP in baseball and not higher than that. Combined with a fantasy baseball angle, that does matter so he could be a "draft" bust in game formats while still a tremendous ace IRL.

I find Cueto on that list more interesting. They gave him a 50th percentile projection 1.8 WAR. That's only down .6 WAR from 2022. I'll take that "bust" to the bank if they get a 1.8 WAR out of Cueto all day. That seems like a best case scenario to me.

[lou]

I hope you’re right, but I truly believe they talked themselves into believing this could work the way they’re doing it, and the fact that they can’t or really don’t want to spend more money, combined with not wanting to accept that they’ve made some bad moves (and got cold feet on some moves that they should have made) makes them want to buy into that belief.

Yea I'm not saying that's what they think, just speculating on what Bruce may be thinking. Maybe he wants to burn out than fade away and go for it - Jeff did do that but unfortunately, Fernandez changed that entire equation for him.

Big picture, I think Bruce wants to be Tampa and Cleveland (which I know isn't rocket science). Both teams have lower payrolls THIS year and are 80% playoff picks across the board if not higher. Much better MLB teams than the Marlins short and longterm with their hitting potential. That's deferring to the whole development of the farm where half that may be figured out for the Marlins within a year (pitching), but the other half is frankly years behind. So when that perfect storm arrives, maybe then they get sustained success, and then slowly start creeping the budget significantly north of $100m, etc. Basically, they aren't going to do shit unless and until the FO creates a 3-4 year perfect contending storm and we all know that is a low probability event as there is no way these hitters are going to match the prime control years of these pitchers without help. Maybe they surprise us and do massive extensions all over to beef this up and Berry, Cappe, Watson, Mack, and gang all are awesome in 2026.

The answer for now is the same - 2 major bats, likely a third "Segura" level one on top for 2024, and they'll need to develop 4-5 at least "Josh Naylor" (sigh) level players out of Fortes, Groshans, Edwards, Amaya, Berry, DLC, Sanchez, Burdick, etc. rather immediately. Frankly, I do have some hope here they may be able to do this with a SP trade between now and April 2024 and dipping into at least Rosario/Bader level in FA next year, but I'll believe it when I see it.


*Edit - I forgot to mention, Nasim Nunez moving to leadoff

[fish16]

Not sure if you read it, but they are probably right. He had a 5.7 WAR last year and he's unlikely to repeat that - they give an 80% chance he won't do that. They have him pretty much as a floor 4.5 WAR SP (median 50th percentile rate) with room to grow. Which is roughly a top 9-12 SP in baseball based on the last 5 seasons versus a 2022 top 5 SP. There is validity in that there is no more shift and he isn't a 10+ K/9 guy so (a lot) more singles may be coming. That ignores the Jazz/Arraez and Rojas/whoever defensive downgrades too. So yea, the "bust" is he's the 10th best SP in baseball and not higher than that. Combined with a fantasy baseball angle, that does matter so he could be a "draft" bust in game formats while still a tremendous ace IRL.

I find Cueto on that list more interesting. They gave him a 50th percentile projection 1.8 WAR. That's only down .6 WAR from 2022. I'll take that "bust" to the bank if they get a 1.8 WAR out of Cueto all day. That seems like a best case scenario to me.

I think if Sandy is healthy, that 5.7 WAR or even more is right. If he's healthy, we're looking at peak justin verlander numbers, which was consistently in the 6 war+ for his healthy years.

Same with cueto. If he's actually healthy and pitching, that's about right. He just needs to be healthy and pitch every 5th day. He looks terrible because he has been hurt. When he pitches he is a quality number 5 in this league at this stage of his career.

[fish16]

this is a big game today. Luzardo on the mound, going against pablo, looking for a series win before going to a really tough series in new york. need a win today or else were looking at a 3-7 start.

[fish16]

our AAA pitching staff is horrific. Lineup has some talent, but man the pitching staff is a mish mash of terrible journeymen.

[fish16]

and peyton burdick is hitting the ball really hard when he makes contact, but out of his 14 outs, 10 were k's, and he has just 1 walk. He needs to improve the plate discipline before he becomes a non prospect or 4th/5th OF type.

[Nick]

Not sure if you read it, but they are probably right. He had a 5.7 WAR last year and he's unlikely to repeat that - they give an 80% chance he won't do that. They have him pretty much as a floor 4.5 WAR SP (median 50th percentile rate) with room to grow. Which is roughly a top 9-12 SP in baseball based on the last 5 seasons versus a 2022 top 5 SP. There is validity in that there is no more shift and he isn't a 10+ K/9 guy so (a lot) more singles may be coming. That ignores the Jazz/Arraez and Rojas/whoever defensive downgrades too. So yea, the "bust" is he's the 10th best SP in baseball and not higher than that. Combined with a fantasy baseball angle, that does matter so he could be a "draft" bust in game formats while still a tremendous ace IRL.

I find Cueto on that list more interesting. They gave him a 50th percentile projection 1.8 WAR. That's only down .6 WAR from 2022. I'll take that "bust" to the bank if they get a 1.8 WAR out of Cueto all day. That seems like a best case scenario to me.

Then why call it a bust candidate list?

[Namaste]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/szymbors...ates-pitchers/

FanGraphs with another gem. Bust Candidate Sandy Alcantara! Great timing guys!

I think the writer used poor judgement when picking the title of the story. In the write up he basically says Sandy will still be very good but he could likely see a lot more ground balls ending up in the outfield due to the changes in the shift.

[lou]

I think if Sandy is healthy, that 5.7 WAR or even more is right. If he's healthy, we're looking at peak justin verlander numbers, which was consistently in the 6 war+ for his healthy years.

Same with cueto. If he's actually healthy and pitching, that's about right. He just needs to be healthy and pitch every 5th day. He looks terrible because he has been hurt. When he pitches he is a quality number 5 in this league at this stage of his career.

Verlander has always struck out more hitters than Sandy. 9.1 K/9 career versus a 7.9 for Sandy. That does add up a lot getting 40+ less balls in play over a year. I think the thing with Sandy is, he does have the gear to tick up some more whiffs which is the missing piece for him to become an all-timer. The fastball velocity is intense and even a small tweak to his arsenal could amazingly get him to another level which is just an unbelievable thing to say about a guy who is probably a floor top 10 SP already. He gets to Verlander's career whiff rate and he is going to BLOW past a 5.7 WAR in many years forthcoming. For this year though, I'll take the under on 5.7 WAR, but the slight over on 4.5 WAR for the record. Personally, I feel he is going to be more of a King Felix production wise than a Verlander. I assume no one feels insulted with that minor differentiation of aces.

And yea on Cueto. A 1.8 WAR out of your 5th SP spot (if he is technically that as Cabrera's innings are going to be real low), would be outstanding.

[lou]

Then why call it a bust candidate list?

We're talking about it right?

[fish16]

I think the writer used poor judgement when picking the title of the story. In the write up he basically says Sandy will still be very good but he could likely see a lot more ground balls ending up in the outfield due to the changes in the shift.

the writers generally dont come up with the headline. im guessing the guy wrote the article and someone else came up a catchy headline to get views.

[rmc523]

They care about PR, just not enough to spend money. The problem is (other than being cheap or just not having the money necessary to own a competitive baseball team in this market) they've convinced themselves that doing it this way can work. If the players they added last year (Soler, Garcia, and Stallings) just become the best versions of themselves, all of the pitchers develop to their ceilings, Jazz has no setbacks on his way to being a star, Arraez continues to have one of the best hit tools in baseball, guys like Segura and Gurriel give them production, a handful of the relievers they have work out, and eventually they develop some hitting prospects, they'll be a real playoff contender. And if all of that happens, they obviously will. The problem is the likelihood of that happening is incredibly low, and they just won't let themselves believe that.

Yeah, it sucks that it's always "everything must go exactly right to have a chance."