2019-2020 Offseason Discussion

[Lee Stone]

Is anyone aboard the Jesus Aguilar train? I'm still struggling to understand the acquisition. In 2018, the Marlins simply dumped Justin Bour, who was actually sort of popular and doing better than Aguilar did last year. Yeah, he was big and slow and didn't really offer any upside, but Aguilar is even bigger and slower - the kind of non-athlete you really don't want any part of. I would have much preferred to sign Brad Miller as a left-handed bat. Miller played SS and 2B last year, so would be a vastly better glove at first and provide some versatility. His OPS was a couple hundred points higher than Aguilar. Note: Miller is still available.

[lou]

he's a career 4.97 xFIP, including 4.74 xFIP last year. He's a 27 year old with a career WAR of -0.6. I would have gotten rid of other guys before him but he isnt this incredibly valuable asset. It's also been abundantly clear that they value a certain type of reliever who throws strikes. Erick said they dont because they signed kintzler but thats ignoring the other aspect of relievers that they clearly value: not walking guys. Kintzler might not strike out a ton of guys but he has full walk less per 9 innings than jarlin does in his career and he is an extreme ground ball pitcher. the yimi garcia addition adds to that notion of caring about throwing strikes consistently.

I would have gotten an extra lower level flier guy like they got for dean but to say this reeks of incompetence is fucking stupid. Aside from conley who im assuming they want to try to rebuild some value and try to trade him at some point during the year, who would you have gotten rid of before jarlin?

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plus, reliever is the position we are going to have an extreme surplus of in the next year or 2. this is a meaningless move in the grand scheme. Would have been nice to get a guy like we got for dean but jarlin is a multiple inning reliever who doesnt strike guys out and is prone to walks.

I agree he is not an incredibly valuable asset as a middle of a bullpen guy, but you don't give up on lefties like him (especially with their lack of depth right now) - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/these-th...unky-fastballs

I suspect this is another Wittgren. We don't cry about it, but it's like why? I'd rather have Garica than Joyce for sure and give those PA to Ramirez/Sierra.

[Lee Stone]

This posted by Craig Mish (not his own prognostication): https://twitter.com/CraigMish/status...585344/photo/1

Personally, I'd go with Braves at 92 wins, Nationals at 88, Phils at 85, Mets at 82, and Marlins at 62.

As to lou post above, I'd prefer Garcia to Conley and Stephen Tarpley, no question.

[lou]

Is anyone aboard the Jesus Aguilar train? I'm still struggling to understand the acquisition. In 2018, the Marlins simply dumped Justin Bour, who was actually sort of popular and doing better than Aguilar did last year. Yeah, he was big and slow and didn't really offer any upside, but Aguilar is even bigger and slower - the kind of non-athlete you really don't want any part of. I would have much preferred to sign Brad Miller as a left-handed bat. Miller played SS and 2B last year, so would be a vastly better glove at first and provide some versatility. His OPS was a couple hundred points higher than Aguilar. Note: Miller is still available.

Maybe there is a reason Miller is still available?

You take the chance Aguilar reverts. It costs you little and he is controlled for 2 more years if he works out.

What they should really do though is what you first pointed out - trade Rojas - and still get Wil Myers in a dump for prospects. I'm sure San Diego would take the salary relief still and figure out some other OF to platoon with Cordero via trade or maybe just sign Puig for 1 year.

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This posted by Craig Mish (not his own prognostication): https://twitter.com/CraigMish/status...585344/photo/1

Personally, I'd go with Braves at 92 wins, Nationals at 88, Phils at 85, Mets at 82, and Marlins at 62.

I'd take the over on 62 and under on 71. Mainly because Villar/others will be traded

[Nick]

If Aguilar doesn't hit, he won't play and will be off the team quickly. (I said this about Granderson last year and was wrong, but hopefully they've learned from their mistakes) It was a low-risk move that was worth taking, we need those right-handed complimentary bats to couple with the many left-handed bats that'll be coming up in the immediate future.

[Lee Stone]

What they should really do though is what you first pointed out - trade Rojas - and still get Wil Myers in a dump for prospects. I'm sure San Diego would take the salary relief still and figure out some other OF to platoon with Cordero via trade or maybe just sign Puig for 1 year.

That all boils down to who the prospect(s) are. We all have our own view on that, but for me it would be the catcher Campusano or nothing. Alfaro hasn't improved a lick.

[Lee Stone]

Still trade rumors about Cubs trading Bryant. It sure seems that the Braves have the pieces to deal for him - which would launch Atlanta to very upper tier.

[rmc523]

Admittedly, "reeks of incompetence" are strong words. On the other hand, how else do we describe management that fields a team that is worse at virtually every position on the field than all four competitors in the NL East? Based on computer-generated Fangraphs data, even the starting and relief pitching are dead last. The only exception is 3B, where the Marlins have a small advantage over the rivals. If it doesn't reek, it certainly stinks a good bit.

You say a lot of weird/random things, but this easily ranks up there as one of the stupidest things you've said.

Obviously a rebuilding ----er--- "building" team the second/third year into it is going to be worse than the other 4 clubs in the division when they're all going for it.

[Lee Stone]

You say a lot of weird/random things, but this easily ranks up there as one of the stupidest things you've said.

Obviously a rebuilding ----er--- "building" team the second/third year into it is going to be worse than the other 4 clubs in the division when they're all going for it.

Weird or random? I didn't even state a personal opinion. Look at the chart for each of the other four teams in the NL East. The Marlins rank behind every other team at virtually every single position. Nothing weird or random about that ... computers tend to be pretty objective. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-zip...miami-marlins/

[Nick]

I'm afraid you whiffed the interpretation of what I said. Take a look at the chart in this article. Compare it to the chart for each of the other four teams in the NL East. The Marlins rank behind every other team at virtually every single position. Nothing weird or random about that ... computers tend to be pretty objective. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-zip...miami-marlins/

Lee: The FO is terrible look at how much worse we are than all the other NL East Teams

Us: Of course we're worse, do you not understand the re-building process we're going through, while the other teams are trying to win right now?

Lee: No you misunderstand, these computers show that our team is worse than the other teams.

[rmc523]

Weird or random? I didn't even state a personal opinion. Look at the chart for each of the other four teams in the NL East. The Marlins rank behind every other team at virtually every single position. Nothing weird or random about that ... computers tend to be pretty objective. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-zip...miami-marlins/

NO SH*T SHERLOCK. WE ARE REBUILDING. TO EXPECT US TO BE BETTER THAN OTHER TEAMS ATTEMPTING TO COMPETE IS DELUSIONAL.

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I bet you're surprised the Orioles don't have any positions better than the AL East too!

[Namaste]

Our bullpen isn’t good enough to let Jarlin Garcia and his 2 years of service time walk for nothing. I don’t see how someone can’t understand that. Take another good, hard look at our bullpen names.

[lou]

Our bullpen isn’t good enough to let Jarlin Garcia and his 2 years of service time walk for nothing. I don’t see how someone can’t understand that. Take another good, hard look at our bullpen names.

*Especially the lefty ones!

[fish16]

Our bullpen isn’t good enough to let Jarlin Garcia and his 2 years of service time walk for nothing. I don’t see how someone can’t understand that. Take another good, hard look at our bullpen names.

Our bullpen will be fine. Garcia’s lack of bat missing and inability to throw strikes consistently combined with his near 5 xfip aren’t going to be a factor between us being a good or bad bullpen. We will be shuffling through about 20 bullpen arms over the course of the year and that’s before we get to the guys who we currently envision as starters who won’t end up being one of our 5 best in a year or two given our starting pitching surplus.

Plus, kintzler, Stanek, Garcia, eieser/urena, Brigham, and sharp is a good start to a bullpen before you even get to the arms who will sort themselves out in spring training. It’s not that difficult of a concept to understand what they’re looking for in bullpen arms. In small sample sizes you reduce variance and luck by throwing guys who don’t walk people and who strike guys out. I’ve said this for several years now- the least valuable thing in baseball is a reliever who doesn’t miss bats and who you can’t count on to throw strikes consistently and jarlin was both of those things. That doesn’t make him a bad player cause he’s a decent reliever but given the 40 man roster crunch that we will be faced with the next two years do to a much improved farm system we will be dumping more guys who probably have major league talent. That’s just the reality of the numbers game.

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Jarlin Garcia’s number 2 comparable through age 26 on baseball reference is Taylor freaking Tankersley.

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Number 1 is Sean burnett, and not the part of his career that became decent as a lefty reliever after awful struggles throwing strikes initially as a high draft pick of the pirates

[Nick]

End of the day, i think fish16 is right, that Garcia and Quijada will not be a major loss, but still it shows a lack of competence that is a little troubling. I mean, what is Matt Joyce's role on this team? My guess would be he'll be the main pinch-hitting option, but in a year where we almost certainly won't win more than 70-games, who gives an F about that role? He's just taking ABs away from the likes of Garrett Cooper, John Berti and Harold Ramirez. All guys who you could make strong arguments could be long-term bench pieces going forward. You could not make that argument for 35-year old Matt Joyce. Need I remind you that Chad Wallach is still on the 40-man roster? The excuse that Wallach's veteran presence is needed at AAA to handle our young pitchers is a load of crap. For one, the guy would definitely clear waivers, but even if he didn't, 30-35 year old veteran catchers who are good hands but are still in AAA because they can't hit are a dime a dozen. Tons of those guys will be available after spring training after they don't make teams after they get invited to spring training. Garcia was 27 cheap, and established himself at least to be a guy who will stick on a 25-man roster as the 6th-7th guy out of the bullpen. Quijada has his issues, but still just 24, still developing, he could've turned a corner at AAA this year, worth giving him a chance to do that at least, that's what LAA will do with him this year. Maybe they just got overconfident in their abilities to be able to find a deal after the rabbit they pulled out of the hat with Dean.