2019-2020 Offseason Discussion

[Nick]

I've beat this drum before, but one guy to watch who isn't mentioned is Josh Roberson. He has really intriguing stuff. If he stays healthy I expect him to traverse multiple levels this year.

[tjfla]

Solid summary article of prospect arms by Barry Jackson - https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/s...link=mainstage

TLDR:

Sandy - Marlins and some scouts believe he has the stuff to be a high impact 1/2 SP
Caleb - They bypassed trades for him and hope he'll get back to pre-injury form
Pablo - Had mental issues last year after injury explaining dip in production
Yamamoto - Probably a 5 if anything
Hernandez - Likes his upside, would prefer him in rotation over Urena
Dugger - Backup rotation option
Urena - Going to bullpen, and backup SP option if above guys don't figure it out
Sixto - Changed mechanics and he personally feels great, expects to be up soon
Neidert - Could be mid/back end SP
Cabrera - Some in organization thinks he can be as good as Sixto, impact 1/2 SP potential
Guzman - "Raised eyebrows" with second half, and still working as a starter
Holloway - Marlins think his stuff a lot better than stats
Garrett - Looking like a 2021 debut, throwing only 90-93
Rogers - Took a major step forward last year, late 2020, early 2021 debut anticipated
Mejia - Could debut in 2021 if it clicks right

This is a nice spread. Going to be fun to see this sort itself out.

Ideally hopefully mostly everyone works out so they can do another Gallen trade and still have 7+ longterm options to work with.

Exactly what Ive been hearing and Ive been saying about all these guys

Should add

They have passed on alot of Caleb trades at deadline and this offseason and Urena is likely dealt when they get an offer they like. Dugger is the 6th SP(has options and lets the younger guys stay down) but long term him and Elieser are seen as LR/Emergency SP. Guzman and Rogers need to show same as LY otherwise don't be surprised if made into RP(I think they both looked great as SP LY) as for Holloway if he struggles they are moving him to the RP where they think he gets to 100+

Denbo and the FO would love this and see this as the "future" rotation starting mid 2021

Sixto
Sandy
Cabrera
Garrett
Pablo/Neidert/Rogers/others

This is why u keep seeing people say dont worry about the pen or anything. If u have that as the rotation u would have guys like Guzman,Holloway,Rogers,Yamamoto in the pen cause no space

- - - - - - - - - -

I've beat this drum before, but one guy to watch who isn't mentioned is Josh Roberson. He has really intriguing stuff. If he stays healthy I expect him to traverse multiple levels this year.

I love Roberson however they have to be careful with him. Durability concerns(which is why they are considering pen move) and Rule 5 next year. He will be 24 so if he looks good in Jupiter he should move fast like u said.

They actually have a number of "older" SP arms who could and SHOULD traverse multiple levels this year

Josh Roberson
Remey Reed
Brady Puckett
Zach King
Andrew Miller
Tanner Andrews
Zach Walters

Also have SP who are young but could become something this year and add to the SP depth

George Soriano
Luis Palacios
Matt Givin
Evan Fitterer
Chris Mokma
Breidy Encarnacion


As well as ALOT of RP who hopefully they get aggressive with and see if they are anything or crap

Gonna be a fun year in the minors especially after draft. See who sticking and where they end up. The majors ehhh might be some fun HAHAHA

[Lee Stone]

Daniel Castano is not mentioned. He may become a decent LHP out of the pen - at least in my eyes.

[lou]

Denbo and the FO would love this and see this as the "future" rotation starting mid 2021

Sixto
Sandy
Cabrera
Garrett
Pablo/Neidert/Rogers/others

I think I agree with you/them, with the minor quibble that I'm sure they'd LOVE Guzman to magically turn into a SP. Also, I do think eventually they will shift to "some" bulk relievers and not have a historical 1-5 so we'll see what happens.

I think the perfect world staff at some point in early 2022 is this:

Sixto, Sandy, Cabrera, Garrett, Pablo/Neidert
Guzman, Holloway, Brigham, some collection of Hernandez, Roberson, Sharp, Dugger, other acquisitions
Rogers, Vesia, and we'll throw Lee a bone and say Castano

Which would be amazing if they could trade all of Caleb, Pablo, and Neidert for bat/bullpen upgrades, and then sign an ace because everyone there is club controlled for $650k (or thereabouts) besides Sandy.

That team above, Sandy 1st year arbitration +11 arms will equal around $12 million in total payroll. Dump a real ace/great 2 on top of that and you have a high impact staff for under $35 million.

And that's expecting your Lewin, Isan, Jazz, Bleday, Monte/Scott, and Sanchez to be your starters with Alfaro and Anderson, and all those guys will make about $16 million in 2022. Combined.

- - - - - - - - - -

We're going to get some arm blow outs eventually though. I think the practical scenario is, 4 of the 8 (Sandy, Sixto, Cabrera, Pablo, Neidert, Rogers, Garret, Caleb) starters completely fail and they end up with "4" overall, so you do the same scenario above and just bring in a veteran to be the last piece.

I think the bullpen will work itself out.

- - - - - - - - - -

This is legitimately under $55 in 2022:

Alfaro, ____
Lewin
Isan, ____
Jazz, ____
Anderson, ____
Bleday
Monte, ____
Sanchez

$25 million ace, Sixto, Sandy, Cabrera, Garrett
Guzman, Holloway, Brigham, Sharp, Roberson
Rogers, Vesia, Castano

Half the team is 1 guy easily, Sandy, Anderson and Alfaro make around $15-18, and the other 17 guys make around $11 million.

Still room for 2 major financial acquisitions, and the war chest of prospects can be traded for a 3rd upgrade option. This doesn't include Caleb/Pablo/Neidert/Urena/others being shipped out, which I assume is all bullpen upgrades.

Why aren't they absorbing Wil Myers for 3 prospects? So this moves to $70 million and adds more pitching redundancy? Who cares? I added a super expensive ace and are still under $70 with Wil?

[tjfla]

I think I agree with you/them, with the minor quibble that I'm sure they'd LOVE Guzman to magically turn into a SP. Also, I do think eventually they will shift to "some" bulk relievers and not have a historical 1-5 so we'll see what happens.

I think the perfect world staff at some point in early 2022 is this:

Sixto, Sandy, Cabrera, Garrett, Pablo/Neidert
Guzman, Holloway, Brigham, some collection of Hernandez, Roberson, Sharp, Dugger, other acquisitions
Rogers, Vesia, and we'll throw Lee a bone and say Castano

Which would be amazing if they could trade all of Caleb, Pablo, and Neidert for bat/bullpen upgrades, and then sign an ace because everyone there is club controlled for $650k (or thereabouts) besides Sandy.

That team above, Sandy 1st year arbitration +11 arms will equal around $12 million in total payroll. Dump a real ace/great 2 on top of that and you have a high impact staff for under $35 million.

And that's expecting your Lewin, Isan, Jazz, Bleday, Monte/Scott, and Sanchez to be your starters with Alfaro and Anderson, and all those guys will make about $16 million in 2022. Combined.

- - - - - - - - - -

We're going to get some arm blow outs eventually though. I think the practical scenario is, 4 of the 8 (Sandy, Sixto, Cabrera, Pablo, Neidert, Rogers, Garret, Caleb) starters completely fail and they end up with "4" overall, so you do the same scenario above and just bring in a veteran to be the last piece.

I think the bullpen will work itself out.

- - - - - - - - - -

This is legitimately under $55 in 2022:

Alfaro, ____
Lewin
Isan, ____
Jazz, ____
Anderson, ____
Bleday
Monte, ____
Sanchez

$25 million ace, Sixto, Sandy, Cabrera, Garrett
Guzman, Holloway, Brigham, Sharp, Roberson
Rogers, Vesia, Castano

Half the team is 1 guy easily, Sandy, Anderson and Alfaro make around $15-18, and the other 17 guys make around $11 million.

Still room for 2 major financial acquisitions, and the war chest of prospects can be traded for a 3rd upgrade option. This doesn't include Caleb/Pablo/Neidert/Urena/others being shipped out, which I assume is all bullpen upgrades.

Why aren't they absorbing Wil Myers for 3 prospects? So this moves to $70 million and adds more pitching redundancy? Who cares? I added a super expensive ace and are still under $70 with Wil?

They would love Guzman,Holloway and Rogers to all be SP and after LY I think Guzman and Rogers have a good chance. The thing is just say they have 5 or 6 SP in 2021 not counting them-I think they put them in the pen and all 3 look great.

I have no answer for the Wil Myers thing because I would do it too. Make him a 1B/Corner OF

SD-ML OF(Harold/Cooper/Sierra) and Pompey
Miami-Myers,Cash,SP(Morejon or Weathers),MIF Owen Miller and some FG40 prospect they like

Wouldnt be surprised to see the #3 Pick up in the Majors too by 2022. They gonna take a College guy who should END 2020 in Jupiter then 2021 AA/AAA

[Erick]

At what point do we stop bringing up Wil Myers? That hasn’t been brought up anywhere other than maybe tj’s janitor friend who clearly doesn’t know what’s going on based on who got DFA’d the other day.

[Namaste]

There’s not much else to talk about. We’re just passing the doldrums of the off season with Pitchers/Catchers reporting soon.

[tjfla]

At what point do we stop bringing up Wil Myers? That hasn’t been brought up anywhere other than maybe tj’s janitor friend who clearly doesn’t know what’s going on based on who got DFA’d the other day.

He hasn't mentioned Wil Myers since November actually and ya he was wrong about the DFA when he said we were talking to multiple teams about multiple players looking for the best value and that the reason Quijada got DFA instead of Conley was because Conley has no value at all right now and we an get the same thing for him in July

I would wait to cry about stuff until we see what we get for Jarlin(maybe u get something solid for him??). They talked to teams on Cooper,Elieser,Urena,Conley,Jarlin,other RP,Brinson

[Lee Stone]

Jordan Yamamoto will be a player of particular interest to me this spring and season. Take a look at the two rookie stat lines below:

15 starts 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 78.2 54 42 39 11 36 82 4.46 1.14 .191

7 starts 7 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 36.1 25 12 11 3 18 43 2.72 1.18 .191

The top line is Yamamoto. The second is Zac Gallen. The only difference is the 11 long balls that Jordan allowed. Still, the 1.14 WHIP was the best of any Marlin starter last season. If Yamamoto can reduce the walk rate, he may emerge as something really special.

Overall for Marlins projected rotation, Fangraphs Steamer makes following projection for 2020 WAR: Lopez 2.2, CSmith 1.8, Alcantara 1.5, Hernandez 1.2 and Yamamoto 1.1. (Of note: Zac Gallen's WAR projection for Arizona is 2.2)

[tjfla]

Pedro Leon to HOUSTON for 4 million on July 2

Almost all of the seven-figure talents in the 2020 signing class have already committed to other clubs and Houston has most of its signing pool available, allowing it to pay a high price for Leon. He is eligible to sign now as part of a team's 2019 class, but most of the money in teams' bonus pools has already been spent, so it was expected he'd wait until the pools reset for the 2020 class.

Many top players will verbally commit to deals with clubs as much as three years before they are eligible to sign, and often all of the top-tier players are locked up by 18 months before signing day. The wild cards are Cuban players who defect and enter the market late, along with players who emerge later in the process.

Cuban right-hander Norge Vera is another prospect who worked out for clubs this week and he'll likely wait until the 2020 signing period to sign. Cuban shortstop Yiddi Cappe also hit the market when most of the 2019 bonus money was spent and has long been rumored to sign with the Marlins for a multimillion-dollar bonus in July. Cuban outfielder/left-handed pitcher Oscar Colas is another Cuban player of note who defected recently, but he hasn't scheduled a workout or been cleared to sign as of yet.

- - - - - - - - - -

We have Cappe for 3.5 Million and Miami likes Vera ALOT but have to wait till July 2 to get more cash which is why u will likely see guys like Urena(if still around),Conley,Matt Joyce,Cervelli,minor leaguers dealt after then otherwise its 2019 cash

They like a few Cubans actually so u could start seeing a few signings coming(cheaper types like LY with Bargallo and Gonzalez) as they still have some cash this year

If anyone has IG this is Cappe page(All decked out in Marlins gear)

https://www.instagram.com/yidi_cappe/

[lou]

15 starts 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 78.2 54 42 39 11 36 82 4.46 1.14 .191

7 starts 7 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 36.1 25 12 11 3 18 43 2.72 1.18 .191

Yes, this is very clear and compelling

- - - - - - - - - -

Overall for Marlins projected rotation, Fangraphs Steamer makes following projection for 2020 WAR: Lopez 2.2, CSmith 1.8, Alcantara 1.5, Hernandez 1.2 and Yamamoto 1.1. (Of note: Zac Gallen's WAR projection for Arizona is 2.2)

I will take the over on Caleb and Sandy, and under on the other 3. However, that is still a pretty solid core for 2020 purposes.

[Lee Stone]

If not for durability issues (Lopez and Smith) I'd take the over on all five. Hernandez showed huge improvement in control in '19 vs '18. Like Caleb Smith and Yamamoto, however, the hot baseball was a HR issue for him.

[Erick]

He hasn't mentioned Wil Myers since November actually and ya he was wrong about the DFA when he said we were talking to multiple teams about multiple players looking for the best value and that the reason Quijada got DFA instead of Conley was because Conley has no value at all right now and we an get the same thing for him in July

I would wait to cry about stuff until we see what we get for Jarlin(maybe u get something solid for him??). They talked to teams on Cooper,Elieser,Urena,Conley,Jarlin,other RP,Brinson

You didn’t say any of this one time before it happened.

You were like 99% sure that either Conley or Ureña were getting DFA’d. You (or your source, whatever) were wrong. You’d have more credibility if you’d just admit it.

[Lee Stone]

New thought: Why not start another pitching revolution?

Instead of starters going 5-6 innings and giving way to a string of relievers (often four or five of them), why not think of pitchers in pairs, with each going 4-5 innings in a given game? A new wave rotation might look like this: Smith/Yamamoto; Lopez/Hernandez; Alcantara/Brigham; Neidert/Cabrera; S Sanchez/Guzman. Your best pitchers are all in regular action, with regular rest, and pitching manageable innings. Add three closers to the staff: Kintzler, Vesia, and whoever. Most teams don't have the quality depth to do that, but I think the Marlins would. Thoughts?

[Erick]

New thought: Why not start another pitching revolution?

Instead of starters going 5-6 innings and giving way to a string of relievers (often four or five of them), why not think of pitchers in pairs, with each going 4-5 innings in a given game? A new wave rotation might look like this: Smith/Yamamoto; Lopez/Brigham; Alcantara/Hernandez; Neidert/Cabrera; S Sanchez/Guzman. Your best pitchers are all in regular action, with regular rest, and pitching manageable innings. Add three closers to the staff: Kintzler, Vesia, and whoever. Most teams don't have the quality depth to do that, but I think the Marlins would. Thoughts?

It’s not a new pitching revolution.