2019-2020 Offseason Discussion

[lou]

How does that St Louis trade look now?

4 ML guys for a Comp B pick

Longshot and would depend on how Monte,Jesus,Bleday progress this year but we could see Ozuna back in 2021. No QO and they would do a 3/50 deal in a second for him

I always liked the Ozuna trade?

Can ATL not offer him a QFA? So once you are offered, you can't get it again? Or is it team dependent, where if he signed with STL they couldn't offer it, but ATL can?

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And they should have just given him 4/$68 if they'd give him 3/$50 in a second next year...

The pick doesn't matter! The pick is 99% likely not turning into a 2.5+ WAR guy floor who can easily be over 3 for his prime span!

[Nick]

How does that St Louis trade look now?

4 ML guys for a Comp B pick

It looks good for us, but that's not a fair way to look at that trade from the Cardinals side. Ozuna was a big part of a team that made the NLCS. Meanwhile we've averaged 102-Losses since he left.

[tjfla]

I always liked the Ozuna trade?

Can ATL not offer him a QFA? So once you are offered, you can't get it again? Or is it team dependent, where if he signed with STL they couldn't offer it, but ATL can?

My understanding is they can't I saw an article last night about it. Ill see if I can find it

On the plus side for Ozuna, he’ll pocket that hefty one-year salary and reenter the free-agent market next winter at a relatively youthful 30 years of age. There’ll be even greater competition on the outfield market next time around, when Mookie Betts and George Springer are among the top-ranked free agents on the market, but Ozuna won’t have a qualifying offer hanging over his head.

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Stick in pocket news

Guys who HAVE to and likely 100% will be added to 40 man in 2021

Garrett/Rogers/Jerar/Devers/Brian Miller/Tyler Stevens/Aiello

Guys who Have to be added to 40 man because they weren't this year

Will Stewart/Dylan Lee/Castano/Eveld/Guerrero/Mateo

Guys who MIGHT be added with a solid season

Thomas Jones/Puckett/Roberson/Soriano/Palacios

Guys who don't need to be added but could be

Vesia/CJ Carter/Bleday

As u see this is why we keep talking about 40 man crunch and why they are DFA/getting rid of guys for Rookie ball guys

[Lee Stone]

Sure, let's DFA Cooper and replace him wiith Matt Kemp. Then we can DFA Brian Anderson and replace him with Martin Prado.

[tjfla]

Sure, let's DFA Cooper and replace him wiith Matt Kemp. Then we can DFA Brian Anderson and replace him with Martin Prado.

U don't seem to get that Cooper doesn't fit into 2021 plans. U DFA or trade Cooper and then add Kemp and trade him in July. U get 2/3 prospects for 2 guys who won't be here in 2021

[Nick]

No Lee is right on this one. That would be stupid as hell.

[rmc523]

marcell has had an OPS of over .800 just once in his career. He is a nice above average outfielder but he is no star and it is unlikely he will have a monster year even hitting behind them. He has yet to put together a complete season aside from his last season here. i like him on that short term deal for just a year but people need to stop treating him as this star type player rather than just an above average outfielder with nice power.

He also had the QO attached, which obviously didn't help his market.

Cooper gets DFA and traded. Kemp gets added to 40 man

Pretty much just like if they sign a Strop they will DFA Conley. Let Phelps and 3 others fight for RP spot and in ST u trade Urena

Cooper-Kemp
Conley-Strop
Urena-Phelps

Trade Cooper,Conley,Urena for stuff then in July u trade Cervelli/Kemp/Strop/Phelps/other arms/Villar if no extension for more prospects

THis last year they can stick to their get as much talent as possible plan. Not in 2021 plans means see ya

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How does that St Louis trade look now?

4 ML guys for a Comp B pick

Longshot and would depend on how Monte,Jesus,Bleday progress this year but we could see Ozuna back in 2021. No QO and they would do a 3/50 deal in a second for him

I don't get your/"their" obsession with just throwing Cooper away.

I always liked the Ozuna trade?

Can ATL not offer him a QFA? So once you are offered, you can't get it again? Or is it team dependent, where if he signed with STL they couldn't offer it, but ATL can?

- - - - - - - - - -

And they should have just given him 4/$68 if they'd give him 3/$50 in a second next year...

The pick doesn't matter! The pick is 99% likely not turning into a 2.5+ WAR guy floor who can easily be over 3 for his prime span!

No, they changed the rules a couple years ago, and you can only be offered a QO once regardless of team.

U don't seem to get that Cooper doesn't fit into 2021 plans. U DFA or trade Cooper and then add Kemp and trade him in July. U get 2/3 prospects for 2 guys who won't be here in 2021

But for Kemp? Why? Keep Cooper and trade HIM at the deadline if your hellbent on getting rid of him (though there's an injury risk there with him).

No Lee is right on this one. That would be stupid as hell.

I'm surprisingly with Lee too - Kemp is on his last legs - I don't mind him as the "Granderson" of this year, but dumping Cooper just because to add Kemp?

[lou]

Sure, let's DFA Cooper and replace him wiith Matt Kemp. Then we can DFA Brian Anderson and replace him with Martin Prado.

Lee's best post.

Prove me wrong.

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No Lee is right on this one. That would be stupid as hell.

It would be, but if Dean is worth a FV40 prospect (I know FG has him higher, but he seems to be an eye of the beholder with the + rating), I'd take the same or a little better for Cooper for sure. Someone in the AL takes him.

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U don't seem to get that Cooper doesn't fit into 2021 plans. U DFA or trade Cooper and then add Kemp and trade him in July. U get 2/3 prospects for 2 guys who won't be here in 2021

He only doesn't fit if Aguilar is better. Both are the complimentary player to Lewin on paper.

I don't know who is going to hit more, but I want whoever that is and let them fight it out this year on the field. Ideally, that is Cooper as he can dabble in a corner and is cheaper.

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Guys who HAVE to and likely 100% will be added to 40 man in 2021[/B]

Garrett/Rogers/Jerar/Devers/Brian Miller/Tyler Stevens/Aiello

Guys who Have to be added to 40 man because they weren't this year

Will Stewart/Dylan Lee/Castano/Eveld/Guerrero/Mateo

Guys who MIGHT be added with a solid season

Thomas Jones/Puckett/Roberson/Soriano/Palacios

Guys who don't need to be added but could be

Vesia/CJ Carter/Bleday

As u see this is why we keep talking about 40 man crunch and why they are DFA/getting rid of guys for Rookie ball guys

Miller, Stevens, and Aiello belong a category down for sure, maybe Jerar too, and I'd just merge your 2nd and 3rd categories. Only Garret, Rogers, and Devers are sure things for the 40 right there.

I think it's highly probable one of Aguilar/Cooper, Villar, one of Sierra/Brinson/Ramirez, Urena, Caleb, one of Hernandez/Yamamoto/Dugger, Steckenrider, Stanek, Yimi, and Conley, at a minimum, are kicked off the 40 man. Likely 1-2 more pitchers fail also - Sharp/Quijada/Tarpley/Brigham/Holloway/Mejia.

They probably have room for 6-8 guys after adding Garrett, Rogers, and Devers. I would assume they add 3-4 veterans and another Rule V pick, so big picture, probably 3-4 of these guys get protected. This is ignoring they could get real players in trades:

Jerar/Brian Miller/Tyler Stevens/Aiello/Will Stewart/Dylan Lee/Castano/Eveld/Guerrero/Mateo/Thomas Jones/Puckett/Roberson/Soriano/Palacios

I think it's reasonable to think 1/3rd of that works out and the 40 man is then set.

Looking at this, there is no way they add Vesia and Bleday until next year.

[Nick]

It would be, but if Dean is worth a FV40 prospect (I know FG has him higher, but he seems to be an eye of the beholder with the + rating), I'd take the same or a little better for Cooper for sure. Someone in the AL takes him.

I'm still flabbergasted by that Dean deal, I don't know what the Cardinals were thinking, but I think that should be treated more as the exception than the rule. There are way more instances where we've DFA'd guys and got nothing or almost nothing.

[fish16]

Am I the only one who would rather just have cooper playing everyday at 1b and Aguilar just as a bench bat or a safety net should cooper continue to get hurt? I think Aguilar is not that great of a player who is being overrated based on a good first half two years ago. When healthy cooper is the better player to me. This idea that you just dfa guys who aren’t in your long term plans far sooner than you need to is idiotic. Whether it’s tj or the janitor relaying this info its just super idiotic and short sighted to dfa guys early because they might not be here in a year or two

[Nick]

They probably have room for 6-8 guys after adding Garrett, Rogers, and Devers. I would assume they add 3-4 veterans and another Rule V pick, so big picture, probably 3-4 of these guys get protected. This is ignoring they could get real players in trades:

Jerar/Brian Miller/Tyler Stevens/Aiello/Will Stewart/Dylan Lee/Castano/Eveld/Guerrero/Mateo/Thomas Jones/Puckett/Roberson/Soriano/Palacios

I think it's reasonable to think 1/3rd of that works out and the 40 man is then set.

Looking at this, there is no way they add Vesia and Bleday until next year.

Only thing I might take exception to here is 3-4 veteran types and Rule V pick being brought in. Now I would be all for us laying down the cash for a superstar, but I think we can all agree the likelihood of that happening is not great. Maybe the chances of that happening go up a little bit before 2022, we'll see. So if that doesn't happen what holes are you filling with veterans? Dickerson is still here in 2021. Our bench includes Rojas, Sierra, Berti, one of Cooper/Aguilar, and a backup catcher. Maybe you have one spot you fill with a vet. You certainly aren't going to bring in a starter to block any of the prospects in 2021. Either for the lineup or the rotation. We're going to have a ton of Bullpen options, it remains to be seen how good these options will be, but I can't see us bringing in more than 1 or 2 arms for the pen. So really I'm thinking realistically 2 vets brought in to make the 26-man, and maybe 3 at most.

[Nick]

Perfect world Roster for 2021. (ignoring potential trades, for this exercise only obvious candidates I'm going to assume are traded. Urena, Conley, the loser of the Cooper/Aguilar/Ramirez/Berti bench battle. Also assuming prospects follow natural progression, barring injury of course)

Lineup:
C-Alfaro
1B - L. Diaz
2B - I. Diaz
3B - Anderson
SS - Jazz
LF - Dickerson (hopefully replaced by Bleday at some point in 2021)
CF - Harrison
RF - Sanchez

Rotation - Caleb, Alcantara, Lopez, Neidert, Sixto and Cabrera (with one going to the pen, again ignoring potential trades)

Bench -
UT - Villar (Give him 2 years $8 million per, a lot for a bench guy, but we have the cash and he's our insurance policy for pretty much all the inevitable fluctuation with these prospects coming up)
UT - Rojas
OF - Sierra
1B/OF/UT - Cooper or Aguilar or Ramirez or Berti
Backup Catcher

Bullpen (I'm just going to list all the candidates because this is pretty much impossible to predict)

Jeff Brigham, Robert Dugger, Jarlin Garcia, Jorge Guzman, Elieser Hernandez, Jose Quijada, Sterling Sharp, Ryan Stanek, Drew Steckenrider, Stephen Tarpley, Jordan Yamamoto, and Alex Vesia

So including the 6th rotation arm that's 13 arms battling for 8 spots, all 13 arms already part of the organization and all 13 of them should be ready to contribute.

That's 31 players total I've listed there.

Players Dropped:
Urena
Conley
Loser(s) of Cooper vs. Aguilar vs. Ramirez vs. Berti
Yimi Garcia
Humberto Mejia
Jordan Holloway (Holloway and Mejia, I think it's put up or shut up. Holloway's got to throw strikes, Mejia's got to stay healthy.)
Chad Wallach
Lewis Brinson

10 players dropped.

Let's say we add Garrett, Rogers, Jerar, Devers, Roberson, Palacios and Soriano. That gets the total up to 38. I really don't see many of those guys I left off getting Rule 5 drafted, if any.

So that gets the number up to 38. Are there really any bats you're going to add to that bench that are going to make a difference? Do we really want to take PT away from the prospects I have starting in the lineup? No way you add a Starting Pitcher. So you have 2 spots to bring in some veteran relief pitching since so many of those 13 names are youngsters. There's your 40.

I really don't think the roster crunch is going to be that big of a deal. We'll be able to get something for the Ramirez, Coopers, Aguilars and Bertis of the world. Even if you think you'll lose a lot of these guys I left off the 40-man (which I don't) we should be able to pick up some decent rookie ball flyer-type prospects for them.

[Lee Stone]

It appears that nearly all of the Marlin prospects in the last MLB Pipeline TOP 100 list will be dropping to lower positions in the new 2020 assessment (due out in about five days). The single exception should be Cabrera, who I figure might move up from 99 into the 80's. My guess is that Harrison may drop out of top 100 altogether.

[Namaste]

marcell has had an OPS of over .800 just once in his career. He is a nice above average outfielder but he is no star and it is unlikely he will have a monster year even hitting behind them. He has yet to put together a complete season aside from his last season here. i like him on that short term deal for just a year but people need to stop treating him as this star type player rather than just an above average outfielder with nice power.

Why waste 30 seconds playing you’re tired semantics game again?

[fish16]

Why waste 30 seconds playing you’re tired semantics game again?

Because maybe it will give you the opportunity to post something of substance for the first time in your time on this site rather than your tired holier and smarter than thou act without actually ever showing you know anything