2019-2020 Offseason Discussion

[emkayseven]

5 in the BA Top 100
16 Sixto
46 Bleday
58 Sanchez
68 Cabrera
88 Jazz

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Braxton and Lewin were also considered but missed

[Nick]

BA's Top 5 actually a lot closer to what I would have than FanGraphs.

[fish16]

BA's Top 5 actually a lot closer to what I would have than FanGraphs.

what did fangraph have that was different.

[Nick]

what did fangraph have that was different.

1. Jazz
2. Sixto
3. Bleday
4. Cabrera
5. Sanchez

[lou]

To follow up on the FG article, an interesting comment from a viewer - https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/a-clos...miami-marlins/

Regarding Alcantara’s K%, I really think he deserved better based on his plate discipline numbers. Per Pitch Info for 2019:

O-Swing%/Z-Swing%/O-Contact%/Z-Contact%/Zone%
31.5 %/66.6 %/60.6 %/86.0 %/49.4 %

He had an 18% K%.

Similar pitchers in 2019:

Homer Bailey: 30.7%/65.8%/59.4%/86.4%/49.6% for a 21.4% K%.
Pablo Lopez: 32.2%/65.3%/64.2%/85.9%/49.1% for a 20.3% K%.
Madison Bumgarner: 34.8%/66.7%/61.6%/85.1%/49.0% for a 24.1% K%
CC Sabathia: 30.1%/68.0%/59.2%/85.2%/45.4% for a 22.9% K%
Spencer Turnbull: 29.8%/67.5%/61.5%/85.7%/45.2% for a 22.3% K%

So Alcantara’s plate discipline profile is more like a ~21% K% guy than an 18% K% guy. Additionally, the walk rates of this group range from 5.1% (Bumgarner) to 9.0% (Turnbull), with Alcantara’s best comp (Bailey) at 7.6%. Alcantara had a 9.7% BB% last year.

Let’s give Alcantara Homer Bailey’s K/BB rates. He goes from 151 to 179 K, 81 to 64 BB, which makes his FIP drop from 4.55 all the way down to 4.01, moving him from Trevor Richards/Wade Miley territory all the way to the Aaron Nola/Michael Pineda area.

That is some awesome message board shit right there. Bolded from emphasis.

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So Alcantara underachieved and Pablo is good too. Both are babies.

[tjfla]

I dont have an obsession with getting rid of Cooper. I actually like him-I just say what I keep hearing and that is they don't see him on the 2021 team. The FO/Denbo would love Matt Kemp to look great in ST which means then he could get rid of Cooper for something and then give Kemp AB's and hopefully trade him in July

Again I DO NOT WANT TO GET RID OF COOPER!!! ITS WHAT I KEEP HEARING!!!!

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Lee's best post.

Prove me wrong.

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It would be, but if Dean is worth a FV40 prospect (I know FG has him higher, but he seems to be an eye of the beholder with the + rating), I'd take the same or a little better for Cooper for sure. Someone in the AL takes him.

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He only doesn't fit if Aguilar is better. Both are the complimentary player to Lewin on paper.

I don't know who is going to hit more, but I want whoever that is and let them fight it out this year on the field. Ideally, that is Cooper as he can dabble in a corner and is cheaper.

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Miller, Stevens, and Aiello belong a category down for sure, maybe Jerar too, and I'd just merge your 2nd and 3rd categories. Only Garret, Rogers, and Devers are sure things for the 40 right there.

I think it's highly probable one of Aguilar/Cooper, Villar, one of Sierra/Brinson/Ramirez, Urena, Caleb, one of Hernandez/Yamamoto/Dugger, Steckenrider, Stanek, Yimi, and Conley, at a minimum, are kicked off the 40 man. Likely 1-2 more pitchers fail also - Sharp/Quijada/Tarpley/Brigham/Holloway/Mejia.

They probably have room for 6-8 guys after adding Garrett, Rogers, and Devers. I would assume they add 3-4 veterans and another Rule V pick, so big picture, probably 3-4 of these guys get protected. This is ignoring they could get real players in trades:

Jerar/Brian Miller/Tyler Stevens/Aiello/Will Stewart/Dylan Lee/Castano/Eveld/Guerrero/Mateo/Thomas Jones/Puckett/Roberson/Soriano/Palacios

I think it's reasonable to think 1/3rd of that works out and the 40 man is then set.

Looking at this, there is no way they add Vesia and Bleday until next year.

The thing about Stevens/Aiello/Eveld is they will probably be getting looks this year which means they will be added to 40 man. Soon as Sierra gets kicked off Brian Miller takes his spot

Then if guys like Will Stewart have solid years they have to be added.

Thats what they are banking on with Cooper-they had so much interest in Dean they think they can get a 40/40+ for Cooper. 1B/RF/DH with 2 options left means a few AL teams will want him

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By way Pedro Strop is down to 2 teams

Miami and Texas(we are still favorites) Sticking point seems to be bonus for games saved

When Strop signs we will need to DFA someone

[fish16]

pedro strop would be a perfect romo type signing for us. Sign him, put him at closer, and flip him at the deadline for another lewin.

[lou]

The thing about Stevens/Aiello/Eveld is they will probably be getting looks this year which means they will be added to 40 man. Soon as Sierra gets kicked off Brian Miller takes his spot

Then if guys like Will Stewart have solid years they have to be added.

Thats what they are banking on with Cooper-they had so much interest in Dean they think they can get a 40/40+ for Cooper. 1B/RF/DH with 2 options left means a few AL teams will want him

In season 40 man moves won't be an issue as they shed guys in trades/performance/injury. The issue is going to be after the year where, at most, they'll have 6-7 slots to protect your list (as well as anyone they get in a trade):

Jerar/Brian Miller/Tyler Stevens/Aiello/Will Stewart/Dylan Lee/Castano/Eveld/Guerrero/Mateo/Thomas Jones/Puckett/Roberson/Soriano/Palacios

That might not be an issue, but I can see scenarios where it is and half those guys look good. There could be a few tougher decisions than this year versus Stewart.

Of course, they can always trade dudes like Brice/Keller/Dean and get something, so we don't have to think too hard about this. The only big picture thought is, they definitely shouldn't be calling up Bleday or Vesia this year. They need to keep the space open in case these guys (or trade assets) need protection.

I think you keep Cooper and see if he's the compliment to Lewin, but I wouldn't care if he turns into a FV40 guy either.

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pedro strop would be a perfect romo type signing for us. Sign him, put him at closer, and flip him at the deadline for another lewin.

You're probably DFA/trading Dugger or Holloway if they get him. Just saying.

And that would be nice, but I don't think we can be as lucky as that ever again (on paper anyways).

[fauowls44]

In season 40 man moves won't be an issue as they shed guys in trades/performance/injury. The issue is going to be after the year where, at most, they'll have 6-7 slots to protect your list (as well as anyone they get in a trade):

Jerar/Brian Miller/Tyler Stevens/Aiello/Will Stewart/Dylan Lee/Castano/Eveld/Guerrero/Mateo/Thomas Jones/Puckett/Roberson/Soriano/Palacios

That might not be an issue, but I can see scenarios where it is and half those guys look good. There could be a few tougher decisions than this year versus Stewart.

Of course, they can always trade dudes like Brice/Keller/Dean and get something, so we don't have to think too hard about this. The only big picture thought is, they definitely shouldn't be calling up Bleday or Vesia this year. They need to keep the space open in case these guys (or trade assets) need protection.

I think you keep Cooper and see if he's the compliment to Lewin, but I wouldn't care if he turns into a FV40 guy either.

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You're probably DFA/trading Dugger or Holloway if they get him. Just saying.

And that would be nice, but I don't think we can be as lucky as that ever again (on paper anyways).

I can't imagine that Dugger or Holloway would be the player DFA'd. I would think Conely or Urena would be the candidates and then flipped for a couple of low level prospects. I personally would DFA Wallach. I don't think he'd be claimed but even if he were, is he really that hard to replace?

[Nick]

Bryan Holaday just signed a minor league deal with the Orioles. Chad Wallach would absolutely pass waivers.

Also, I just think that if Vesia shows he is ready by June, and I think with the way he pitched in AA and the AFL that's a real possibility, and you make him wait almost a calendar year to get called up, you're doing him a disservice, and that's not how you should run your organization. If you can't work around 1 less spot on the 40-man when that 1 less spot is only going to become an issue in 5 months then you don't deserve to be a GM.

[lou]

I can't imagine that Dugger or Holloway would be the player DFA'd. I would think Conely or Urena would be the candidates and then flipped for a couple of low level prospects. I personally would DFA Wallach. I don't think he'd be claimed but even if he were, is he really that hard to replace?

They will have to pay Urena and Conley a portion of their tender as termination, just like Straily last year. They'd have to pay Urena close to $1m and Conley would be around $400-500k. I can see no scenario where they are eating that money right now. Maybe in spring training if someone is a revelation and it's worth it to eat those bucks. i.e., Quijada and Tarpley both look awesome so why not save some money versus Conley even if you're eating a little.

They had comments a few weeks ago they value Wallach as catching the pitching prospects in AAA. I think that is reasonable as the Marlins most valuable property is those young arms, and having a good defensive catcher is going to help. I don't disagree he might clear, but they seem to want him for that purpose.

A trade makes the most sense. That also does solve the problem if they are able to move someone like they did with Dean.

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Bryan Holaday just signed a minor league deal with the Orioles. Chad Wallach would absolutely pass waivers.

Also, I just think that if Vesia shows he is ready by June, and I think with the way he pitched in AA and the AFL that's a real possibility, and you make him wait almost a calendar year to get called up, you're doing him a disservice, and that's not how you should run your organization. If you can't work around 1 less spot on the 40-man when that 1 less spot is only going to become an issue in 5 months then you don't deserve to be a GM.

Vesia hasn't pitched 100 innings in the minors. I don't think there is any rush to have him split the year in AA/AAA and hope you get a repeat. He looks good, but they have a lot of talent to potentially protect. They can always trade some guys to clear space, but if the choice is protect Roberson through the offseason or call up Vesia, it's an easy choice. I don't think keeping Vesia in the minors for 130 versus 150 innings is a disservice to him.

Of course, this will become MUCH clearer in mid-July when we see what that TJ list is doing. If the only good ones are Jerar, Soriano, and Palacios, there is plenty of space for Vesia/Bleday this year. It'll become easier with more evaluation.

[Nick]

They will have to pay Urena and Conley a portion of their tender as termination, just like Straily last year. They'd have to pay Urena close to $1m and Conley would be around $400-500k. I can see no scenario where they are eating that money right now. Maybe in spring training if someone is a revelation and it's worth it to eat those bucks. i.e., Quijada and Tarpley both look awesome so why not save some money versus Conley even if you're eating a little.

They had comments a few weeks ago they value Wallach as catching the pitching prospects in AAA. I think that is reasonable as the Marlins most valuable property is those young arms, and having a good defensive catcher is going to help. I don't disagree he might clear, but they seem to want him for that purpose.

A trade makes the most sense. That also does solve the problem if they are able to move someone like they did with Dean.

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Vesia hasn't pitched 100 innings in the minors. I don't think there is any rush to have him split the year in AA/AAA and hope you get a repeat. He looks good, but they have a lot of talent to potentially protect. They can always trade some guys to clear space, but if the choice is protect Roberson through the offseason or call up Vesia, it's an easy choice. I don't think keeping Vesia in the minors for 130 versus 150 innings is a disservice to him.

Of course, this will become MUCH clearer in mid-July when we see what that TJ list is doing. If the only good ones are Jerar, Soriano, and Palacios, there is plenty of space for Vesia/Bleday this year. It'll become easier with more evaluation.

Only thing I'll say about not rushing him is he'll be 24 when the season starts, it's not like we'd be rushing some kid to the majors. Pitchers have only so many years when they're throwing mid-90s.

[lou]

Only thing I'll say about not rushing him is he'll be 24 when the season starts, it's not like we'd be rushing some kid to the majors. Pitchers have only so many years when they're throwing mid-90s.

Sure, but it's really the difference between Aug 1, 2020 versus April 15, 2021, and if you do the later, you get to keep an additional FV40 prospect (more than likely anyways).

This may be a conversation about nothing as the players are either objectively good or bad come August 1st and the decision may be easy, but today, I'm just deferring to keeping their options open. I think we're all on the same page here. If TJ's wild list of Tyler Stevens/Aiello/Will Stewart/Dylan Lee/Castano/Eveld/Mateo/Puckett/Roberson/Soriano/Palacios only looks like 7th/8th bullpen arms in July, let Vesia rip if he's still kicking ass. I think this will work itself out.

I think it's time for spring training to start.

[Nick]

Sure, but it's really the difference between Aug 1, 2020 versus April 15, 2021, and if you do the later, you get to keep an additional FV40 prospect (more than likely anyways).

This may be a conversation about nothing as the players are either objectively good or bad come August 1st and the decision may be easy, but today, I'm just deferring to keeping their options open. I think we're all on the same page here. If TJ's wild list of Tyler Stevens/Aiello/Will Stewart/Dylan Lee/Castano/Eveld/Mateo/Puckett/Roberson/Soriano/Palacios only looks like 7th/8th bullpen arms in July, let Vesia rip if he's still kicking ass. I think this will work itself out.

I think it's time for spring training to start.

Agreed bro.

[Erick]

Anybody think we’ll lose less than 90 games this year?