2019-2020 Offseason Discussion

[fish16]

If he's good you just give him a qualifying offer. He ain't taking a 1 year extension with FA coming, when he just had a 4 WAR season.

The position core is definitely set at the moment. No odd men out - besides Wallach. Remember, rosters expand to 26 so they have to carry 13 bats.

Alfaro, Cervelli
Aguilar
Isan
Rojas, Berti
Anderson
Dickerson
Villar*, Sierra, Brinson
Ramirez/Cooper platoon
(AAA - Wallach)
*Amuse me for CF

I do think they should pick up another bat and send Brinson to AAA though. They can really take any position because Berti, Villar, Rojas, Anderson, and Cooper can move around

true, didnt think about the qualifying offer. As for brinson, i just give him one more run at the beginning of the year in a platoon with sierra. I just dont think at this point that anymore AAA time does anything for him. He needs to put up or shut up at the major league level and show something this year, especially with Monte and Sanchez going to be ready at some point this year and bleday some time next year.

He has supposedly changed some things and has stayed off social media this year as opposed to last year posting everything on there so hopefully a step back and some time to decompress and re-focus will do him some good. He clearly has the tools he just has looked overwhelmed every time he is up. Dont put him in the #3 spot in the lineup but at least give him a fighting chance and dont hit him 8th every day. Put him in the 6 spot for a month and just hope something clicks. Or just see if he can be a role player moving forward and do a pure platoon with him against lefties and sierra against righties and see if you can get an overall productive starter out of that.

[lou]

I just saw Aguilar arbitration stalemate.

Aguilar $2.575m
Marlins $2.325m

Come on dudes. I think you can work this one out.

[tjfla]

i wonder what it would take to extend villar for a year. Something like 10-12 million for 2021. I think given our prospect depth at each position but also the question as to when they will be major league ready, he's a great piece to have around as a quality major league bat with versatility. A better bat worse glove version of rojas.

I think the outfield situation is coming into focus. Dickerson in a corner, Anderson or villar in another corner, and then Brinson/Sierra pure platoon until one guy shows something more in center with Ramirez as the 5th outfield who can play in each position. Go with Cooper and Aguilar as a platoon at 1b, Diaz at 2b, Rojas at SS, and then anderson or villar at 3b with Berti as a swiss army knife platoon, and cervelli as a backup C. There does seem to be 1 guy who will be the odd man out though and I think it will be either berti or Harold ramirez since i believe we can send them both down with no issue. Bench of cervelli, sierra/brinson, cooper/aguilar, and then the last spot between berti and ramirez. Obviously not great but its not to have any clear weak links who have no business being in the majors.

- - - - - - - - - -

also i keep seeing trading conley and urena mentioned but that doesnt make sense to me at this point. their value is at its lowest. see if they can rebound for a few months to start the year and then send them somewhere close to the deadline. Especially Urena. I really dont see us not having him in the rotation.

2 things will happen with Villar around July

#1 They will extend him for 3-4 years and he will have a set position
#2 They cant work nothing out and he will be traded

FO would love to get something done long term with him but arent gonna overpay or anything

- - - - - - - - - -

We traded Brice for an intriguing ss prospect in the dsl. He’s only 18, 6’1 and 160 lbs so room to grow, hit for an awful average last year but had 55 walks to 57 k’s and a .384 obp. Love that type of profile for a guy we were getting rid of anyway. Take big swings and hope one pans out

Angeudis Santos probably never makes it BUT this is the type of prospect u look for as a lotto ticket

2020 season he will be 18,6'1 165 LHB,can play SS but likely a 2B in future(especially in our system) and LED the DSL in Walks LY. One stat I look at for A Ball and lower bats is the Walks/K rate and he has 55 Walks/57 K very solid #

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp...tting/2019/ALL

[tjfla]

We all know the IFA the Marlins got this cycle. Salas/Ian Lewis/Junior but according to BA

Baseball America
@BaseballAmerica
·
11h
A sleeper from the Marlins international class? 17-year-old SS Javier Sanoja. He has a high baseball IQ and excellent bat control.


They probably won't but I really hope they let some of these kids play the 1st month in DSL then July get called up to GCL. Bring these high end kids up and get them into the system

[lou]

I really wonder what Villar is worth. Marwin is a good comp. He was coming off .4, 4, and 1.5 WAR seasons (5.9 average), and only could get a 2/$21 deal. That was for his age 30-31 years.

Villar right now a -.4, 2, and 4 WAR spread (5.6 average), and is entering his age 29 season this year. FG is projecting him a shade under 2 WAR, so let's just say he hits that and a little more. That's like a 2.7 WAR average for 2018-2020, so a bit better than Marwin. Same free agent years as Marwin coming up too.

You'd imagine he would want a 4/$44-50 deal, with teams more leaning to 2/$25-27 or 3/$33-36.

He hits another 4 WAR though, all bets are off and just give him a qualifying offer to retain him, or take the draft pick.

[Lee Stone]

On the MLB website, the Marlin starting rotation, top to bottom, is Alcantara, Smith, Lopez, Yamamoto and Hernandez. Urena and Neidert would seem like other options heading into spring. Who will have the best results in 2020? Pretty impossible to say.

If there is a perfect comp for Alcantara in all the majors, it would be Urena in 2017 and 2018. Identical four-seamer, same speed and movement. What happened to Urena last season? Hell if I know. The two of them allow more contact (based on BAA and K rates) than all the others.

Smith is both the strikeout king and server of the most long balls.

Lopez has the best repertoire of pitches.

Yamamoto has the great spin rate on the curve and best WHIP and BAA.

Neidert has the best change and overall control.

Hernandez put up peripherals that were similar to Alcantara (his BAA and WHIP were similar)

Who among them steps the furthest forward in 2020? I have no friggin' idea. What say you fellas?

[fish16]

On the MLB website, the Marlin starting rotation, top to bottom, is Alcantara, Smith, Lopez, Yamamoto and Hernandez. Urena and Neidert would seem like other options heading into spring. Who will have the best results in 2020? Pretty impossible to say.

If there is a perfect comp for Alcantara in all the majors, it would be Urena in 2017 and 2018. Identical four-seamer, same speed and movement. What happened to Urena last season? Hell if I know. The two of them allow more contact (based on BAA and K rates) than all the others.

Smith is both the strikeout king and server of the most long balls.

Lopez has the best repertoire of pitches.

Yamamoto has the great spin rate on the curve and best WHIP and BAA.

Neidert has the best change and overall control.

Hernandez put up peripherals that were similar to Alcantara (his BAA and WHIP were similar)

Who among them steps the furthest forward in 2020? I have no friggin' idea. What say you fellas?

sandy is nothing like urena other than that they arent (or at least in sandys case have not yet been) huge K guys. Sandy pitches to more contact than you'd like but his pure stuff also allows him to generate weak contact. His soft hit % was 19.7%, Urena's was 13.6 and 15% the year before. Hard hit was 34% for Sandy, 43% for Urena. Sandy showed huge improvement down the stretch last year. Obviously this can be said for any pitcher but when he gets consistency with his control he is a top of the rotation type pitcher. He had 9 different starts last year of at least 7 innings and less than 2 ER's plus a few more starts where he was there and then gave up runs in the 7th or 8th.

Sandy is also our only guy who has been able to both pitch effectively and get deeper into games. Smith was more effective at times but his pitch count is rarely efficient enough for him to get past 6 innings, which is really what sets guys apart nowadays. Lots of guys are young and have swing and miss ability but cant do it efficiently. It's what makes the difference between a #3 type guy and a legit #1 like Verlander or Cole.

Next year will be incredibly interesting to see how the rotation guys do. Lopez is the guy who seems to put up the best peripherals but has been injury prone with legit scary injuries for a pitcher and he has been prone to huge innings to blow up starts. I see #3 potential with him but it's all health dependent. I've been saying this for a while now but he reminds me so much of henderson alvarez in both a good and bad way.

Smith has been good to start each of the last 2 years but has gotten injured each year and struggled afterwards. His ERA suggests back end guy but his swing and miss ability and low WHIP suggests potential low end #2 or #3 type guy. I think what ends up happening with him is we deal him towards the deadline this year given his older age, injury history, and the number of guys coming up into the rotation soon. I think he's the most obvious trade candidate out of our rotation and I think if he has a good start to the season you can get a legit return for him.

Yamamoto and Elieser just need to pitch more to get a better idea of what they are. Peripherals are really nice on both but both were also prone to blow ups. All in all this is going to be an incredibly interesting year to evaluate our SP's to see who is going to be a long term piece with the numbers of SP coming up in the next 2 years.

- - - - - - - - - -

Also, the yelich deal looks bad so far but the front office seems to have done very well on the ozuna deal if just sandy works out, and it's a home run if Jazz is the type of all around impact SS many expect him to be.

Also, the Dee gordon trade looks pretty good too. I always thought he was overrated and not a great player in the modern game so just getting rid of his deal was good, but if neidert can be a rotation guy that deal looks really nice. Plus the phelps deal getting pablo lopez for a guy like him who wasnt going to re-sign anyways was really nice.

[tjfla]

Holaday to Baltimore

[Lee Stone]

Really good deal. What was Baltimore thinking?

Orioles were thinking: Why spend around $9 million on Villar when we'll be the worst team in baseball regardless.

[rmc523]

Holaday to Baltimore

On a minor league deal.

[tjfla]

Fish getting more Draft Pool $$

Houston just lost GM and Coach for year and 1st and 2nd Rd Picks for next 2 years

[rmc523]

Does losing the GM and manager for a year really do much?

[tjfla]

Does losing the GM and manager for a year really do much?

Nevermind they FIRED both of them instead

- - - - - - - - - -

Tony Kemp traded to Oakland in multi player swap and Zach Cozart DFA

[rmc523]

Woah!

[Nick]

Woah.

Also, I'm curious as to how the MLB would police a suspended GM. How would they make sure that he's not the one still making the decisions?