2019-2020 Offseason Discussion

[lou]

I wonder if this pushes Isan to AAA for a little bit of time?

[fauowls44]

I wonder if this pushes Isan to AAA for a little bit of time?

He'll have to earn the job in the spring, but I would think it's more likely Villar starts at SS or 3rd.

[Nick]

I am speechless they did this. This is fine money to spend.

I 100% agree, but I can see them saying, well we've got Aguilar now, we don't really need to bring in a Castellanos or Ozuna. We'll move Cooper to Left, Villar plays 3rd, Anderson out to Right and we're good to go.

If that's the case that's still a pretty piss poor lineup despite these being positive moves on paper, and doesn't really help the future outlook of the squad, maybe they get some decent Single-A prospects at the deadline for them, but that's about it.

[Namaste]

idk if im too crazy about paying villar 10+ million a year but given our non existent payroll for next year its all good.

Classic fish16.

If Villar stinks in 2020 fish16 can say, “I said he wasn’t worth 10+ million the day we signed him!”


If Villar does great fish16 can say, “Guys, I said it was all good because we had a low payroll!”

[lou]

I 100% agree, but I can see them saying, well we've got Aguilar now, we don't really need to bring in a Castellanos or Ozuna. We'll move Cooper to Left, Villar plays 3rd, Anderson out to Right and we're good to go.

If that's the case that's still a pretty piss poor lineup despite these being positive moves on paper, and doesn't really help the future outlook of the squad, maybe they get some decent Single-A prospects at the deadline for them, but that's about it.

I think there is a difference culturally of doing something like this. It's like the Dolphins - those dudes care this year and that is going to pay dividends in a year or two when they are actually good. This is going to inspire some confidence in the kids that this year is still gonna suck, but management has their back.

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But yea you are right on Aguilar and Villar on other signings.

Alfaro, Wallach
Aguilar
Diaz
Villar
Rojas, ________
Cooper
Berti, Sierra, Brinson
Anderson, H. Ramirez

There is A LOT of positional redundancy here which I love. Isn't this screaming a super high upside Rule V pick and shield them for a year, and if that dude sucks call up Dean until Monte, Lewin, and Sanchez are ready in July?

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Someone like this - https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa917030&position=2B

FG had him as a possible top 100 player for 2020 - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/picks-to-click-who-we-expect-to-make-the-2020-top-100/

They don't need a 25 man roster with those 12. That's all I'm saying. They can really stash a guy or two on the 25 man now. Ruiz has no business being on a roster, but if Brett Graves can survive anything is possible.

[fauowls44]

I 100% agree, but I can see them saying, well we've got Aguilar now, we don't really need to bring in a Castellanos or Ozuna. We'll move Cooper to Left, Villar plays 3rd, Anderson out to Right and we're good to go.

If that's the case that's still a pretty piss poor lineup despite these being positive moves on paper, and doesn't really help the future outlook of the squad, maybe they get some decent Single-A prospects at the deadline for them, but that's about it.

I don't think it's a given that they just brought in Villar to flip him at the deadline. If he manages to do what he did last year, he's potentially a guy you try to keep around. At the very least, you can offer him the qualifying offer and then you get a pick if he signs elsewhere. At some point, they need to start signing key pieces. Not saying Villar is necessarily one of them yet, but that is the next step for Jeter and company to act like a real MLB team.

[fish16]

Classic fish16.

If Villar stinks in 2020 fish16 can say, “I said he wasn’t worth 10+ million the day we signed him!”


If Villar does great fish16 can say, “Guys, I said it was all good because we had a low payroll!”

Or I can acknowledge he’s probably not gonna be a 10 million a year player while also acknowledging we can over pay guys given where we are at with our payroll for next year

[Ralph]

Taijuan Walker would be such a good gamble. He’s healthy and ready to compete for a starting spot. And if shows out. Y’all about a trade piece at the deadline.

[lou]

I don't think it's a given that they just brought in Villar to flip him at the deadline. If he manages to do what he did last year, he's potentially a guy you try to keep around. At the very least, you can offer him the qualifying offer and then you get a pick if he signs elsewhere. At some point, they need to start signing key pieces. Not saying Villar is necessarily one of them yet, but that is the next step for Jeter and company to act like a real MLB team.

I agree. Problem with Villar is he is bad at 2B and 3B, and pretty solid at SS. I don't know how that works, but the stats don't lie.

So Rojas should be playing 2B or 3B next year.

I'm really thinking Isan is in AAA to start next year right now. Let's also be real here. Keep him down for 57 service days (end of May), and he'll end the year at .171 service days. Meaning you get a full year of control for not playing him until June. I like that.

Isan is going to need to set the world on fire in spring training.

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Or I can acknowledge he’s probably not gonna be a 10 million a year player while also acknowledging we can over pay guys given where we are at with our payroll for next year

It's hard to argue Villar isn't worth 1+ WAR which is what that salary is.

He's a steal at 2+ WAR.

One of the best contracts in baseball 4+ WAR.

[fish16]

i dont agree with your salary evaluations relative to WAR in the slightest. It's not hard to find a 1-2 WAR guy for cheap every year and not pay more than a few million.

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unless im reading that wrong, in what world is 10 million worth a 1 WAR player?

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Craig Mish
@CraigMish
·
23s
Newly acquired Jonathan Villar will play a combination of 3B and OF for the Miami Marlins. The club is a big believer in Isan Díaz, but should he struggle, Villar also provides insurance at 2B as well.

Don't think theres a chance isan starts in AAA unless he shits the bed in spring or is injured. I think it will be aguilar at 1b, cooper in LF, Anderson in RF, Villar at 3b.

[dim]

unless im reading that wrong, in what world is 10 million worth a 1 WAR player?

I believe common Sabermetrics has valued 1 win for a single player at $8 million.

Is that correct for market corrections in today's baseball? I don't know. I'm pretty sure front offices generally give out contracts based on an average of $4 million to $4.5 million per win.

[fish16]

I believe common Sabermetrics has valued 1 win for a single player at $8 million.

Is that correct for market corrections in today's baseball? I don't know. I'm pretty sure front offices generally give out contracts based on an average of $4 million to $4.5 million per win.

That seems completely off. Plus there isn’t any one size fits all based on there being no salary cap in baseball. 1 war for the dodgers can have a much higher aav than 1 war for the marlins

[Nick]

I don't think it's a given that they just brought in Villar to flip him at the deadline. If he manages to do what he did last year, he's potentially a guy you try to keep around. At the very least, you can offer him the qualifying offer and then you get a pick if he signs elsewhere. At some point, they need to start signing key pieces. Not saying Villar is necessarily one of them yet, but that is the next step for Jeter and company to act like a real MLB team.

It's a good pickup for us, worth a look, but let's also put this into perspective he was just traded to us from a team that is somehow worse than us for basically nothing.

[lou]

I believe common Sabermetrics has valued 1 win for a single player at $8 million.

Is that correct for market corrections in today's baseball? I don't know. I'm pretty sure front offices generally give out contracts based on an average of $4 million to $4.5 million per win.

Villar was worth $31.7 last year - https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.asp...on=2B/SS#value. I do understand this valuation isn't perfect for a variety of reasons (namely because guys like Granderson weigh this down), but saying a 4 WAR player isn't worth $10 million is laughable. Villar is fantastic value at $10 assuming he is a 2+ WAR player. He's also in a free agency contract year. He's coming to play in 2020.

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It's a good pickup for us, worth a look, but let's also put this into perspective he was just traded to us from a team that is somehow worse than us for basically nothing.

They are just shedding money. It's a pathetic move for them.

[tjfla]

So here is plan after yesterday

C-Alfaro/?
1B-Aguilar/Cooper
2B-Isan
SS-Rojas/Berti(UT)
3B-BA/Villar
LF-?/Ramirez
CF-Brinson/Sierra
RF-Coop/BA

Villar is gonna be starting BUT different spots. 3B and Corner OF the most but also SS and 2B. Don't forget Mattingly likes Rojas at 1B after 8th

They are still looking at OF(FA-Avisail/Puig) (Trade-Peralta,Haniger)

Likely will add a Corner OF on 2 yr deal AND then 2 or 3 arms

Rule 5 is likely Higgins/another C OR some high end prospect who is 21 and likely NOT ready for ML but they like. Berti,Brinson,Cooper all have options

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I don't think it's a given that they just brought in Villar to flip him at the deadline. If he manages to do what he did last year, he's potentially a guy you try to keep around. At the very least, you can offer him the qualifying offer and then you get a pick if he signs elsewhere. At some point, they need to start signing key pieces. Not saying Villar is necessarily one of them yet, but that is the next step for Jeter and company to act like a real MLB team.

They are gonna try to sign Villar to an extension however don't be surprised if traded at deadline. Villar and Aguilar were both cheap buys. They would like them both to stick in system