2019-2020 Offseason Discussion

[fauowls44]

So here is plan after yesterday

C-Alfaro/?
1B-Aguilar/Cooper
2B-Isan
SS-Rojas/Berti(UT)
3B-BA/Villar
LF-?/Ramirez
CF-Brinson/Sierra
RF-Coop/BA

Villar is gonna be starting BUT different spots. 3B and Corner OF the most but also SS and 2B. Don't forget Mattingly likes Rojas at 1B after 8th

They are still looking at OF(FA-Avisail/Puig) (Trade-Peralta,Haniger)

Likely will add a Corner OF on 2 yr deal AND then 2 or 3 arms

Rule 5 is likely Higgins/another C OR some high end prospect who is 21 and likely NOT ready for ML but they like. Berti,Brinson,Cooper all have options

I would love Puig on a 2 year deal. He'd be a star here. Not sure Mattingly would be on board, but maybe that is overblown.

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So here is plan after yesterday

C-Alfaro/?
1B-Aguilar/Cooper
2B-Isan
SS-Rojas/Berti(UT)
3B-BA/Villar
LF-?/Ramirez
CF-Brinson/Sierra
RF-Coop/BA

Villar is gonna be starting BUT different spots. 3B and Corner OF the most but also SS and 2B. Don't forget Mattingly likes Rojas at 1B after 8th

They are still looking at OF(FA-Avisail/Puig) (Trade-Peralta,Haniger)

Likely will add a Corner OF on 2 yr deal AND then 2 or 3 arms

Rule 5 is likely Higgins/another C OR some high end prospect who is 21 and likely NOT ready for ML but they like. Berti,Brinson,Cooper all have options

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They are gonna try to sign Villar to an extension however don't be surprised if traded at deadline. Villar and Aguilar were both cheap buys. They would like them both to stick in system

I wonder if they offer him a 2 or 3 year deal during the arbitration process and see if he bites. Perhaps he'd take 3 years/$40 million or something like that.

[tjfla]

I think there is a difference culturally of doing something like this. It's like the Dolphins - those dudes care this year and that is going to pay dividends in a year or two when they are actually good. This is going to inspire some confidence in the kids that this year is still gonna suck, but management has their back.

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But yea you are right on Aguilar and Villar on other signings.

Alfaro, Wallach
Aguilar
Diaz
Villar
Rojas, ________
Cooper
Berti, Sierra, Brinson
Anderson, H. Ramirez

There is A LOT of positional redundancy here which I love. Isn't this screaming a super high upside Rule V pick and shield them for a year, and if that dude sucks call up Dean until Monte, Lewin, and Sanchez are ready in July?

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Someone like this - https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.asp...30&position=2B

FG had him as a possible top 100 player for 2020 - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/picks-to...-2020-top-100/

They don't need a 25 man roster with those 12. That's all I'm saying. They can really stash a guy or two on the 25 man now. Ruiz has no business being on a roster, but if Brett Graves can survive anything is possible.

I would jump on Esteury Ruiz in a second. They liked him in trade talks with SD in past-21 who can play 2B,3B,Corners and little SS. Lots of options however to choose from like Esteury Ruiz, Miguelangel Sierra, Wander Javier, Sherveyn Newton if they want high end prospect. I would go with Higgins in Rd 1 and if any of these guys are around in Rd 2 take a chance.

We still have enough spots to take 2 guys

Moran-Romo
Keller-Roark
Kinley-Bat(Avisail) or another arm
Wallach-Rule 5
If sign a OF then Austin Dean- Rule 5 or another arm?

Trades-Urena,Conley,Brice

Conley is a trade candidate so if they need a spot he could be given away especially if guys like Lee,Castano arent picked

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I would love Puig on a 2 year deal. He'd be a star here. Not sure Mattingly would be on board, but maybe that is overblown.

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I wonder if they offer him a 2 or 3 year deal during the arbitration process and see if he bites. Perhaps he'd take 3 years/$40 million or something like that.

Mattingly would NOT be on board at all. They want Avisail more but still considering him

Thats what I would try-2 or 3 yr deal for Villar and if he bites cool. If not let him play and move him at deadline for prospects. Deadline Harrison and/or Jesus is ready which means BA at 3B finally fulltime

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Also hearing Jose Urena(if back) next year will be a SP

So rotation/staff right now

Caleb
Sandy
Urena
Pablo
Yamamoto

Elieser
Jarlin
Quijada
Brice
Brigham
Steck
Stanek
?

[lou]

I would love Puig on a 2 year deal. He'd be a star here. Not sure Mattingly would be on board, but maybe that is overblown.

I know I've been on a war path for "get a long term right handed bat" this offseason, but that idea was contingent on the two new infield bats being lefties. Villar is a switch hitter, but this creates a scenario with Aguilar where your only lefties are him, Isan, and Sierra. They ain't going into the year like that. They still need another lefty for some balance.

I suppose the best idea is too option Brinson to AAA, sign the longterm right handed guy still, and another lefty outfielder. I don't think the later needs to be a major signing. A solid backup lefty bat for the outfield. Maybe they also get a left handed backup catcher who can dabble in the field.

Low lefty power until Sanchez, Lewin, and Jazz show up, but who cares.

I mean, this is a pretty cool lineup that is insanely flexible.

Alfaro, Wallach
Aguilar, Cooper (Castellanos, Rojas)
I. Diaz (Berti, Villar, Rojas)
Villar (Rojas, Berti)
Rojas (Anderson, Berti, Villar)
"Castellanos", H. Ramirez
Berti, Sierra
Anderson, "Veteran Lefty"

They could probably do that, sign 2 more pitchers, and still have a $85 million payroll.

40 man is this, in this scenario

Alfaro, Wallach (2)
Aguilar, Cooper, L. Diaz (3)
I. Diaz, Berti (2)
Villar, Rojas, Jazz (3)
Anderson (1)
Sierra, Brinson, Monte (3)
Castellanos, Veteran Lefty, Ramirez, J. Sanchez (4)
=18

Sandy, Caleb, Pablo, Urena, 5th SP for 2020, Yamamoto, Sixto, E. Cabrera, Neidert, Dugger (10)
Steckenrider, Stanek, Brice, Brigham, E. Hernandez, Guzman, Another Veteran reliever (7)
Garcia, Conley, Quijada (3)
=20

Holloway, Mejia (2 - likely non 2020 players)
=2

Total=40

DFA - Dean < ----- or keep him and trade someone like Dugger for a low-level prospect not on a 40 man. I'm sure someone would take him. Or get rid of both of them and add another LHP reliever for cheap.

This would inspire great confidence for me if Castellanos' deal was a reasonable value over 4 years, and everyone else is on cheap 1 year deals

[emkayseven]

Villar is awful at 3B so this is a bad plan and a sure fire way to screw up his value. He should be playing shortstop with Rojas at third and Anderson in right field.

[lou]

Villar is awful at 3B so this is a bad plan and a sure fire way to screw up his value. He should be playing shortstop with Rojas at third and Anderson in right field.

100%.

Or Isan in AAA to open the year and at 2B. He was good there in 2018, even if bad in 2019, so maybe he isn't atrocious at 2B.

Or do the Marlins thing and just play him in CF because why not.

[tjfla]

I know I've been on a war path for "get a long term right handed bat" this offseason, but that idea was contingent on the two new infield bats being lefties. Villar is a switch hitter, but this creates a scenario with Aguilar where your only lefties are him, Isan, and Sierra. They ain't going into the year like that. They still need another lefty for some balance.

I suppose the best idea is too option Brinson to AAA, sign the longterm right handed guy still, and another lefty outfielder. I don't think the later needs to be a major signing. A solid backup lefty bat for the outfield. Maybe they also get a left handed backup catcher who can dabble in the field.

Low lefty power until Sanchez, Lewin, and Jazz show up, but who cares.

I mean, this is a pretty cool lineup that is insanely flexible.

Alfaro, Wallach
Aguilar, Cooper (Castellanos, Rojas)
I. Diaz (Berti, Villar, Rojas)
Villar (Rojas, Berti)
Rojas (Anderson, Berti, Villar)
"Castellanos", H. Ramirez
Berti, Sierra
Anderson, "Veteran Lefty"

They could probably do that, sign 2 more pitchers, and still have a $85 million payroll.

40 man is this, in this scenario

Alfaro, Wallach (2)
Aguilar, Cooper, L. Diaz (3)
I. Diaz, Berti (2)
Villar, Rojas, Jazz (3)
Anderson (1)
Sierra, Brinson, Monte (3)
Castellanos, Veteran Lefty, Ramirez, J. Sanchez (4)
=18

Sandy, Caleb, Pablo, Urena, 5th SP for 2020, Yamamoto, Sixto, E. Cabrera, Neidert, Dugger (10)
Steckenrider, Stanek, Brice, Brigham, E. Hernandez, Guzman, Another Veteran reliever (7)
Garcia, Conley, Quijada (3)
=20

Holloway, Mejia (2 - likely non 2020 players)
=2

Total=40

DFA - Dean < ----- or keep him and trade someone like Dugger for a low-level prospect not on a 40 man. I'm sure someone would take him. Or get rid of both of them and add another LHP reliever for cheap.

This would inspire great confidence for me if Castellanos' deal was a reasonable value over 4 years, and everyone else is on cheap 1 year deals

LHB options they have been in contact with are Dickerson,Kole Calhoun,Peralta,Japanese guy. Travis Shaw was non tendered but nothing yet

They really like Peralta the issue is Arizona wants atleast a OF AND ML Ready SP in return. Miami thought price was too high(so do i)

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Villar is awful at 3B so this is a bad plan and a sure fire way to screw up his value. He should be playing shortstop with Rojas at third and Anderson in right field.

Totally agree thats what I would do but seems right now plan is Villar getting starts at 3B,Corners,2B and maybe few at SS

[lou]

I'd definitely take a flyer on Travis Shaw over those other guys

[Nick]

Villar is awful at 3B so this is a bad plan and a sure fire way to screw up his value. He should be playing shortstop with Rojas at third and Anderson in right field.

This makes no sense to me, that someone can be a very good SS and a bad 3B. Shortstop is a much tougher position to play. Both have a long throw, and shortstop has much more ground to cover. Could it simply be a statistical anomaly?

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Only 54 games total, hasn't played there since 2016. That seems like classic Lee Stone small sample size.

[fish16]

Going back to the discussion of value relative to salary and I think that needs to be re-evaluated in the current trend of non tendering arbitration eiigible players. Those guys can be valuable and can be had for cheaper and the amount of them on the market is only going up. There were 19 players non tendered 2 years ago, 27 last year, and then 40 this year. That definitely will impact the relative value in war that you can get from a player, and especially the war you should expect to get from a players salary as a small market team

[lou]

Going back to the discussion of value relative to salary and I think that needs to be re-evaluated in the current trend of non tendering arbitration eiigible players. Those guys can be valuable and can be had for cheaper and the amount of them on the market is only going up. There were 19 players non tendered 2 years ago, 27 last year, and then 40 this year. That definitely will impact the relative value in war that you can get from a player, and especially the war you should expect to get from a players salary as a small market team

That'll get reflected in re-calculations if tons of guys start signing for $3 million a year.

I think we would all agree, there is going to be a STRONG market forever for guys who are solid 3+ WAR players, and 2+ guys (Villar, Castro, maybe Castellanos), are going to be in a nether region where they will need the right club with the right need to get a good deal - like Mouse who hit it out of the park with his new contract.

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Marlins have a longterm need for a right handed bat so I think it's fine to give a "Mouse" deal (4/$60+) to a second-tier right handed hitter who can hit. Castellanos and Ozuna are pretty perfect, but I'd agree a guy who can play CF or 1B would be better as Monte and Lewin are the biggest positional question marks to me.

[emkayseven]

This makes no sense to me, that someone can be a very good SS and a bad 3B. Shortstop is a much tougher position to play. Both have a long throw, and shortstop has much more ground to cover. Could it simply be a statistical anomaly?

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Only 54 games total, hasn't played there since 2016. That seems like classic Lee Stone small sample size.

I'd be willing to give it a shot but don't see the need to since he's a really good SS and Rojas is fine at 3B.

[Nick]

I'd be willing to give it a shot but don't see the need to since he's a really good SS and Rojas is fine at 3B.

I get that, but Jazz is not far off, I think both Rojas and Villar end up as Utility guys, but Villar is a better hitter, don't you want to see if he can stick as an every day 3B? Really the only 3B worth a damn in our system is BA and he can play the OF very well too.

[Erick]

Rojas is the one who would lose value at 3B. Nearly all of his value comes from his defensive abilities up the middle.

[lou]

Rojas is the one who would lose value at 3B. Nearly all of his value comes from his defensive abilities up the middle.

Villar is REALLY bad at 3B (historically). Rojas is not. I can see arguments the best production alignment is Villar at SS, Rojas 3B, and Anderson in RF.

Wondering if Villar sees some time in CF. He can probably cover a lot of territory, not sure about his arm but that might be OK.

Talk about a perfect longterm fit if he can play a solid CF and he maintains being this type of hitter for a few years. That solves a massive depth problem and Villar becomes "Marwin Gonzalez" real quick and gets 130+ starts everywhere.

[AdamRavs]

There is a couple of nice pitchers out there too. I would like us to take a flyer on Jimmy Nelson from the Brewers. He was injured most of last yr. He was solid before that. Can work him through the pen or back of the rotation.