2019-2020 Offseason Discussion

[lou]

No I was talking about Sanchez, but platooning Diaz next year is equally ludicrous.

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Also, there are about a million examples of guys who started out slow and eventually became quality major league players.

Equally ludicrous is the correct analysis here

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To Start:

C: Alfaro
1B: Cooper
2B: Isan
3B/RF: Anderson
SS: Rojas
LF: Ramirez/Dean
CF: Ramirez/Sierra/Berti
RF/3B: Free Agent

To Finish: (Best Case Scenario)

C: Alfaro
1B: Lewin/Cooper
2B: Isan
3B/LF: Anderson
SS: Chisholm
LF/3B: Free Agent
CF: Harrison
RF: Sanchez

I'd change best case Aug 1, 2020 slightly:

C: Alfaro, Heineman < - Yes Lee, I agree let's hope he hits
1B: Lewin, Cooper
2B: Isan, Berti
3B: Anderson, "No idea but they need a second backup middle infielder type"
SS: Rojas < - Jazz service time clock consideration. He is less ready than Monte and Sanchez, so I think you delay him like Bryant (end of April 2021) or go all the way to the Super2 in the summer. Highest upside gets the most service time scrutiny
LF: Castellenos/Ozuna/C. Frazier/Other good longterm right handed bat they picked up
CF: Harrison, Brinson < - Let us hope Brinson is better than Sierra, but this is likely Sierra and I'm fine with that. Or Ramirez if they both suck
RF: Sanchez

[Nick]

Obviously Jazz's play will determine if he makes it to the big leagues. My best case scenario is Jazz has an Isan-like season at AAA, .280-.290 25-30 HRs, and if that's the case then he sees the big leagues some time after August. Do I think that's realistic? Well, I wouldn't put money on that happening, for sure, but wouldn't be the most surprising thing I've seen.

[Lee Stone]

Obviously Jazz's play will determine if he makes it to the big leagues. My best case scenario is Jazz has an Isan-like season at AAA, .280-.290 25-30 HRs, and if that's the case then he sees the big leagues some time after August. Do I think that's realistic? Well, I wouldn't put money on that happening, for sure, but wouldn't be the most surprising thing I've seen.

I believe the huge change in Chisholm's Southern League performance after joining the Marlins was due to cutting down on his swing. His power (HRs) dipped but his overall performance went way up. I think that's the right approach for a relatively small guy. I don't see more than maybe 15 HR seasons from Jazz, but .285 avg and .370 OBP should be realistic. Lots of steals and colorful work at SS too.

[lou]

I believe the huge change in Chisholm's Southern League performance after joining the Marlins was due to cutting down on his swing. His power (HRs) dipped but his overall performance went way up. I think that's the right approach for a relatively small guy. I don't see more than maybe 15 HR seasons from Jazz, but .285 avg and .370 OBP should be realistic. Lots of steals and colorful work at SS too.

.370 OBP with great defense at SS is a 5 WAR player. That's a top 25 player in baseball.

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Jazz is your # 4 Marlins prospect behind Cabrera, Sixto, and Guzman

[Lee Stone]

.370 OBP with great defense at SS is a 5 WAR player. That's a top 25 player in baseball.

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Jazz is your # 4 Marlins prospect behind Cabrera, Sixto, and Guzman

Lindor Lite is what I'm hoping for. I don't really know how to rate pitchers relative to position players, but Jazz is my #1 positional prospect. It's interesting that Monte Harrison is making the same type of adjustment to simplify his swing and the two are together on the same Puerto Rico League team.

[tjfla]

Should be a busy 2 days for us. 40 man rosters have to be set tommorrow by 8pm. Which means few more DFA/trades coming


Also before we start appointing Tyler Heineman Backup C let's see if they resign him first

He is a Milb FA

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.370 OBP with great defense at SS is a 5 WAR player. That's a top 25 player in baseball.

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Jazz is your # 4 Marlins prospect behind Cabrera, Sixto, and Guzman

Guzman? He isn't even in the Top 7 for Miami pitchers. I still have him penciled in as a RP/CL but should note if strong year this year he could become SP

[Lee Stone]

Also before we start appointing Tyler Heineman Backup C let's see if they resign him first

To be clear, I'll be pleasantly shocked if the Marlins keep Heineman. If the brass was impressed with him, or even curious, he would have been given innings in September. It's not the first time I've viewed things differently than management ... and they have all the inside scoop, right?

[tjfla]

Also before we start appointing Tyler Heineman Backup C let's see if they resign him first

To be clear, I'll be pleasantly shocked if the Marlins keep Heineman. If the brass was impressed with him, or even curious, he would have been given innings in September. It's not the first time I've viewed things differently than management ... and they have all the inside scoop, right?

U are missing my point. He is a FA right now so before we talk about him lets resign him. Its like Peter O'Brien people have been talking about him all Winter League as a Marlins guy yet he isn't even in the system either

[lou]

Guzman? He isn't even in the Top 7 for Miami pitchers. I still have him penciled in as a RP/CL but should note if strong year this year he could become SP

Lee's got a weird list going, he can defend that.

I think he's in the 9-15 clump.

1-4 - Jazz, Sixto, Sanchez, Bleday
5-8 - Cabrera, Garrett, Monte, Neidert
9-15 - Rogers, Guzman, Scott, Misner, Nunez, Devers, L. Diaz
(Rogers would be in middle tier if we knew he was a surefire SP, still has RP risk more than the others how I see it. Could be wrong)

Do you mean 7 minor league pitchers? I think Sixto, Cabrera, Garret, Neidert, and Rogers are very defendable to have above him but I struggle to find two more. If you want to add Sandy, Pablo, and Caleb, yea he's definitely 9th at absolute best. I can't put Soriano, Mejia, Fitterer, Holloway, Stewart, Encarnacion, Palacios, Vesia, etc. above him right now.

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Fangraphs also started the 2020 prospect lists - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-47-prospects-arizona-diamondbacks/

Nothing to really see there as who cares about Arizona's farm, but hopefully they roll these out 2-3 a week so everything is out before spring training. Marlins should be one of the funnier lists for them to make so let's hope its not alphabetical.

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Lindor Lite is what I'm hoping for. I don't really know how to rate pitchers relative to position players, but Jazz is my #1 positional prospect. It's interesting that Monte Harrison is making the same type of adjustment to simplify his swing and the two are together on the same Puerto Rico League team.

You rate them like anyone else - a combination of ceiling and floor. Jazz has both if the defense is real. Sixto has both as he's an epic reliever if he doesn't have stamina with # 1 SP potential. I can't find the link, but I read in the last day or two Mike Hill thinks they fixed a mechanical issue with Sixto and he can clearly throw starters innings now. It might have been Miami Herald and I just got pay-walled with them. This is why Sanchez should be a tick above Bleday because the floor of "best RF defense in the minors" is going to make him a player versus the unknown Bleday hit tool. And so on and so forth.

[Lee Stone]

Yes, Sixto spent a long time in extended spring training to adjust mechanics. Last year's durability is reason for optimism.

Guzman has had command issues, the only thing holding him back (although that's admittedly a huge thing). I felt that he made some real progress there in the later part of last season. In 2018, all at Jupiter, Guzman's WHIP was an unworkable 1.54. Last year at Jacksonville, he got it down to 1.20. That is genuine progress. Note: Alcantara, another hard thrower, was never able to get his WHIP down to that level.

[tjfla]

Lee's got a weird list going, he can defend that.

I think he's in the 9-15 clump.

1-4 - Jazz, Sixto, Sanchez, Bleday
5-8 - Cabrera, Garrett, Monte, Neidert
9-15 - Rogers, Guzman, Scott, Misner, Nunez, Devers, L. Diaz
(Rogers would be in middle tier if we knew he was a surefire SP, still has RP risk more than the others how I see it. Could be wrong)

Do you mean 7 minor league pitchers? I think Sixto, Cabrera, Garret, Neidert, and Rogers are very defendable to have above him but I struggle to find two more. If you want to add Sandy, Pablo, and Caleb, yea he's definitely 9th at absolute best. I can't put Soriano, Mejia, Fitterer, Holloway, Stewart, Encarnacion, Palacios, Vesia, etc. above him right now.

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Fangraphs also started the 2020 prospect lists - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-47-p...-diamondbacks/

Nothing to really see there as who cares about Arizona's farm, but hopefully they roll these out 2-3 a week so everything is out before spring training. Marlins should be one of the funnier lists for them to make so let's hope its not alphabetical.

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You rate them like anyone else - a combination of ceiling and floor. Jazz has both if the defense is real. Sixto has both as he's an epic reliever if he doesn't have stamina with # 1 SP potential. I can't find the link, but I read in the last day or two Mike Hill thinks they fixed a mechanical issue with Sixto and he can clearly throw starters innings now. It might have been Miami Herald and I just got pay-walled with them. This is why Sanchez should be a tick above Bleday because the floor of "best RF defense in the minors" is going to make him a player versus the unknown Bleday hit tool. And so on and so forth.

Ya I meant Prospects/younger arms

Sixto
Sandy
Neidert
Cabrera
Garrett
Pablo

Yamamoto,Rogers and Guzman-all need to show 1 more year of SP before they get moved up on my list. Issue with all 3 is they could be in bullpen very easily. I don't put RP in Top 15 unless are legit closer types

If Guzman and Rogers show the same as this year I would move them both up. Control and ability to go 6+ are factors for both

Soriano,Mejia,Will Stewart,Encarnacion,Palacios,Givin,Alberto Guerrero could all move up very easily next year and guys like Brady Puckett,Roberson,Remey Reed,Holloway,Tanner Andrews,Walters are older but could move up list too if pushed up a level

[Lee Stone]

Wichita next spring. If the team features a rotation of Cabrera, Sanchez, Guzman, Neidert and say, Castano, and a lineup highlighted by Harrison, Chisholm, J Sanchez, L Diaz, and Heineman, that will be the best Marlin minor league club in team history. Frankly, they'd be a helluva lot better than the big league club.

[fish16]

Ya I meant Prospects/younger arms

Sixto
Sandy
Neidert
Cabrera
Garrett
Pablo

Yamamoto,Rogers and Guzman-all need to show 1 more year of SP before they get moved up on my list. Issue with all 3 is they could be in bullpen very easily. I don't put RP in Top 15 unless are legit closer types

If Guzman and Rogers show the same as this year I would move them both up. Control and ability to go 6+ are factors for both

Soriano,Mejia,Will Stewart,Encarnacion,Palacios,Givin,Alberto Guerrero could all move up very easily next year and guys like Brady Puckett,Roberson,Remey Reed,Holloway,Tanner Andrews,Walters are older but could move up list too if pushed up a level

not sure why rogers is lumped in with the possible RP group as of now. He was a high first round pick and did nothing but impress this year and had no significant control issues as a 21 year old all year in Jupiter and Jax. He is certainly not to be lumped in to a group with control issues with the likes of Guzman, who really improved his stock late in the year but still has clear control issues. Rogers aint in that group to me.

[lou]

not sure why rogers is lumped in with the possible RP group as of now. He was a high first round pick and did nothing but impress this year and had no significant control issues as a 21 year old all year in Jupiter and Jax. He is certainly not to be lumped in to a group with control issues with the likes of Guzman, who really improved his stock late in the year but still has clear control issues. Rogers aint in that group to me.

Lack of a third above average pitch. This was pre-2019:

Rogers was a divisive draft prospect. He was considered by teams in the 8-15 range because lefties this size who throw this hard are very rare, but there was trepidation regarding his age (he was well over 19 on draft day) and whether or not he could actually spin a breaking ball. The Marlins took the same route with Rogers as they had the year before with Braxton Garrett; Rogers didn't throw a single pro pitch in his draft year and instead was sent to Low-A the following May after a few weeks in extended. By that time, Rogers was already 20. He struck out a lot of hitters at Greensboro but was also relatively hittable, and pro scouts have the same issue with his breaking ball as some on the amateur side of the industry did, though it plays okay against lefties because of his lower arm slot. We think the changeup will eventually be Rogers' best pitch and it might have to be since right-handed hitters get a nice, long look at the fastballs coming out of his hand. We tend to think he winds up in relief or that he'll be undermined by several seemingly small issues if he starts, which combined will limit his effectiveness.

This was MLB pipeline - the most cheery scouting reports one can find - midseason 2019. Them using "tumbling" is pretty bad for them:

he has trouble staying on top of his curveball and it tends to blend together with his slider. His tumbling changeup also lacks consistency but could be his best secondary pitch in the long run. Rogers has plenty of raw talent but is only scratching the surface of his potential. He throws strikes but will have to refine the rest of his repertoire to keep hitters off his fastball. He has a chance to become a mid-rotation starter but will need plenty of development time to get there.

There is some real reliever risk where he becomes a fastball/slider reliever, but if that change becomes the "best secondary" pitch, he moves up a bit. I'm going to be very interested in seeing what offseason reports say about his change/curve.

This one isn't a control issue like Guzman. Let's hope the change improved.

[Lee Stone]

Having watched Rogers a couple times, another concern is the ease with which base stealers get a huge jump. He is ssslllooooow to the plate.