2019-2020 Offseason Discussion

[Nick]

Personally, I'm intrigued by Miguel Andujar. He seems rather displaced in New York and the Yankees should be looking for pitching. Would a return to NY featuring Guzman, C Smith or Trevor Rogers and others work?

I think Andujar has about the highest offensive ceiling of any young player that the Marlins could acquire.

I'd consider dealing Caleb and some prospects, if we could land Andujar and Frazier. Then sign Zack Wheeler to take Caleb's spot in the rotation.

[lou]

I'd consider dealing Caleb and some prospects, if we could land Andujar and Frazier. Then sign Zack Wheeler to take Caleb's spot in the rotation.

This would be a really epic set of moves I would be 100% behind. I'd also say, could probably wait 1-2 years before the SP acquisition (a lot of SP next few years, unlike not really any bats next year besides Mookie or Realmuto on the right age spectrum. Springer a little older, etc.).

Caleb and some minor leaguers outside top 10 prospects for Andujar and Frazier
likely trade Cooper for pitching help in a separate deal and insert Andujar at 1B and he'll dabble at 3B
sign a 1 year SP rehab candidate - Alex Wood rehab candidate
And then a few very cheap bench/relievers

I like that a lot on paper.

In 2021 - Trevor Bauer, Robbie Ray, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, Jake Arrieta, Marcus Stroman, Jose Quintana.
In 2022 - Noah Syndergaard, Chris Archer, Mike Foltynewicz, and a bunch of HOF pitchers likely good on a shorter deal to chase playoffs - Clayton Kershaw, Corey Kluber, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke

Just saying, wouldn't need Wheeler unlike Castellanos/Ozuna who are really it for 2 offseasons besides pie in the sky Rendon/Mookie scenarios

[Lee Stone]

This would be a really epic set of moves I would be 100% behind. I'd also say, could probably wait 1-2 years before the SP acquisition (a lot of SP next few years, unlike not really any bats next year besides Mookie or Realmuto on the right age spectrum. Springer a little older, etc.).

Caleb and some minor leaguers outside top 10 prospects for Andujar and Frazier
likely trade Cooper for pitching help in a separate deal and insert Andujar at 1B and he'll dabble at 3B
sign a 1 year SP rehab candidate - Alex Wood rehab candidate
And then a few very cheap bench/relievers

I like that a lot on paper.

In 2021 - Trevor Bauer, Robbie Ray, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, Jake Arrieta, Marcus Stroman, Jose Quintana.
In 2022 - Noah Syndergaard, Chris Archer, Mike Foltynewicz, and a bunch of HOF pitchers likely good on a shorter deal to chase playoffs - Clayton Kershaw, Corey Kluber, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke

Just saying, wouldn't need Wheeler unlike Castellanos/Ozuna who are really it for 2 offseasons besides pie in the sky Rendon/Mookie scenarios

I assume that Andujar alone would cost more than C Smith and lower level prospects, unless the Yankees were intrigued by a Misner, for example. It's natural for fans to overvalue their own players, but we have to remember the level of talent Andujar flashed prior to his injury. Andujar would instantly become the Marlins best player.

[rmc523]

This would be a really epic set of moves I would be 100% behind. I'd also say, could probably wait 1-2 years before the SP acquisition (a lot of SP next few years, unlike not really any bats next year besides Mookie or Realmuto on the right age spectrum. Springer a little older, etc.).

Caleb and some minor leaguers outside top 10 prospects for Andujar and Frazier
likely trade Cooper for pitching help in a separate deal and insert Andujar at 1B and he'll dabble at 3B
sign a 1 year SP rehab candidate - Alex Wood rehab candidate
And then a few very cheap bench/relievers

I like that a lot on paper.

In 2021 - Trevor Bauer, Robbie Ray, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, Jake Arrieta, Marcus Stroman, Jose Quintana.
In 2022 - Noah Syndergaard, Chris Archer, Mike Foltynewicz, and a bunch of HOF pitchers likely good on a shorter deal to chase playoffs - Clayton Kershaw, Corey Kluber, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke

Just saying, wouldn't need Wheeler unlike Castellanos/Ozuna who are really it for 2 offseasons besides pie in the sky Rendon/Mookie scenarios

You can add Odorizzi to that 2021 list since he took the Twins' QO.

[Nick]

I assume that Andujar alone would cost more than C Smith and lower level prospects, unless the Yankees were intrigued by a Misner, for example. It's natural for fans to overvalue their own players, but we have to remember the level of talent Andujar flashed prior to his injury. Andujar would instantly become the Marlins best player.

Not sure I agree with this. The guy is coming off a major shoulder injury, and as you said there's not really a spot for him, that's why he's being shopped. Also, as been mentioned the Yankees have a serious roster crunch right now, so they are going to value lower level guys that have several years before they have to be put on the 40-man.

I think something like this is realistic:

Marlins Get:

Clint Frazier
Miguel Andujar
Miguel Yajure

Yankees Get:
Caleb Smith
Kameron Misner
Tristan Pompey
Evan Fitterer
Chris Mokma

[Lee Stone]

Not sure I agree with this. The guy is coming off a major shoulder injury, and as you said there's not really a spot for him, that's why he's being shopped. Also, as been mentioned the Yankees have a serious roster crunch right now, so they are going to value lower level guys that have several years before they have to be put on the 40-man.

I think something like this is realistic:

Marlins Get:

Clint Frazier
Miguel Andujar
Miguel Yajure

Yankees Get:
Caleb Smith
Kameron Misner
Tristan Pompey
Evan Fitterer
Chris Mokma

Not real sure about the realistic part, but that trade would certainly wake up the Marlin community. I'd further say that any Marlin pitcher other than S Sanchez or Edward Cabrera should be considered as fair game in a straight up deal for Andujar.

[lou]

I assume that Andujar alone would cost more than C Smith and lower level prospects, unless the Yankees were intrigued by a Misner, for example. It's natural for fans to overvalue their own players, but we have to remember the level of talent Andujar flashed prior to his injury. Andujar would instantly become the Marlins best player.

Oh you mean like saying Ben Meyer is a future staff lock, Jerar is a top 5 system prospect in the summer, and Heineman is the catcher of the future? Please Lee. Look in the mirror buddy about fandom evaluations of players.

As for Andujar, Anderson is clearly better and it's not a debate. A "healthy" Andujar could slot in as # 2 for the 2020 roster, but who knows if there is a real Isan, Sandy, Pablo, etc. breakout. Longterm, he'd be behind Jazz, Sixto, Sanchez, Bleday, Anderson, and likely whichever 3-4 other guys work out (Monte, Cabrera, Garrett, etc. all have more upside, and this is ignoring lower minors). As a low defense option likely relegated to 1B only, his upside isn't much more than a 3 WAR player unless he starts hitting like JD Martinez. In no way shape or form is he instantly the Marlins best player. I like him (assuming health), but he's not a projectable superstar like you seem to think he is.

He has 4 years of control. He probably has a surplus value around $70-80 million, as a solid 2.5+ WAR player for that time period. This is probably the highest one could argue viewing Andujar in the best light. It's likely lower than this given relegation to 1B and really bad injury history with last year.

Caleb has been a 1.6 WAR pitcher over 180 IP in his career so far. I think it's fair to say he's close to a 2+ WAR guy as he has some room for improvement with realistic innings management, but we can rate him at what he has thrown. This probably puts Smith, judging him the lowest in the worst light, around $45+ million in surplus value.

So, the difference here is probably one good FV50 prospect, or a really good FV45+ and another good speculative FV40+ guy. I think your name drop of Misner makes sense. Caleb, Misner, and someone like Jerar/Holloway/Dugger/Pompey/Stewart is probably a very fair trade for Andujar. Maybe the Marlins recoup a 2nd guy a bit lower than Jerar/Holloway guys and would slot in around 25-30 in their system. Or token IFA money.

Adding in Frazier, he hasn't done shit and is pure speculation and eye of the beholder. Maybe you could give him $30-35 million in prospect value (in between a FV55-50), and then if you're the Marlins, you're adding in say Stanek ($15-20 in surplus value) and a super projectable arm, like Fitterer, Soriano, Mejia, or Palacios. That about evens out.

So, the deal would be realistically something like this, and this is deferring to a better evaluation of Andujar than C. Smith so it's in the Yankees favor if anything:

Andujar, Frazier, and likely a token prospect not as good as any of the below Marlins names. Likely a 40 man crunch name for the Yankees
for
C. Smith, Stanek, Misner, Jerar/Stewart, and Fitterer/Soriano

I'd do that in a heartbeat and I bet the Yankees would too as they'd be getting 150-200 really good innings for 2020 at under $1.3 million, with years of control, and 3 swings at an upside prospect none of which need to go on 40 man roster.

Marlins get two bats to add to the system, and then can trade Cooper for prospects/other to help mitigate the losses.

Makes a lot of sense both ways.

- - - - - - - - - -

Not sure I agree with this. The guy is coming off a major shoulder injury, and as you said there's not really a spot for him, that's why he's being shopped. Also, as been mentioned the Yankees have a serious roster crunch right now, so they are going to value lower level guys that have several years before they have to be put on the 40-man.

I think something like this is realistic:

Marlins Get:

Clint Frazier
Miguel Andujar
Miguel Yajure

Yankees Get:
Caleb Smith
Kameron Misner
Tristan Pompey
Evan Fitterer
Chris Mokma

I didn't see this post as I was rage typing, but I think it's fun we basically landed on the same thing. Brevity is not a strong suit of mine.

[Lee Stone]

Oh you mean like saying Ben Meyer is a future staff lock, Jerar is a top 5 system prospect in the summer, and Heineman is the catcher of the future? Please Lee. Look in the mirror buddy about fandom evaluations of players.

As for Andujar, Anderson is clearly better and it's not a debate. A "healthy" Andujar could slot in as # 2 for the 2020 roster, but who knows if there is a real Isan, Sandy, Pablo, etc. breakout. Longterm, he'd be behind Jazz, Sixto, Sanchez, Bleday, Anderson, and likely whichever 3-4 other guys work out (Monte, Cabrera, Garrett, etc. all have more upside, and this is ignoring lower minors). As a low defense option likely relegated to 1B only, his upside isn't much more than a 3 WAR player unless he starts hitting like JD Martinez. In no way shape or form is he instantly the Marlins best player. I like him (assuming health), but he's not a projectable superstar like you seem to think he is.

He has 4 years of control. He probably has a surplus value around $70-80 million, as a solid 2.5+ WAR player for that time period. This is probably the highest one could argue viewing Andujar in the best light. It's likely lower than this given relegation to 1B and really bad injury history with last year.

Caleb has been a 1.6 WAR pitcher over 180 IP in his career so far. I think it's fair to say he's close to a 2+ WAR guy as he has some room for improvement with realistic innings management, but we can rate him at what he has thrown. This probably puts Smith, judging him the lowest in the worst light, around $45+ million in surplus value.

So, the difference here is probably one good FV50 prospect, or a really good FV45+ and another good speculative FV40+ guy. I think your name drop of Misner makes sense. Caleb, Misner, and someone like Jerar/Holloway/Dugger/Pompey/Stewart is probably a very fair trade for Andujar. Maybe the Marlins recoup a 2nd guy a bit lower than Jerar/Holloway guys and would slot in around 25-30 in their system. Or token IFA money.

Adding in Frazier, he hasn't done shit and is pure speculation and eye of the beholder. Maybe you could give him $30-35 million in prospect value (in between a FV55-50), and then if you're the Marlins, you're adding in say Stanek ($15-20 in surplus value) and a super projectable arm, like Fitterer, Soriano, Mejia, or Palacios. That about evens out.

So, the deal would be realistically something like this, and this is deferring to a better evaluation of Andujar than C. Smith so it's in the Yankees favor if anything:

Andujar, Frazier, and likely a token prospect not as good as any of the below Marlins names. Likely a 40 man crunch name for the Yankees
for
C. Smith, Stanek, Misner, Jerar/Stewart, and Fitterer/Soriano

I'd do that in a heartbeat and I bet the Yankees would too as they'd be getting 150-200 really good innings for 2020 at under $1.3 million, with years of control, and 3 swings at an upside prospect none of which need to go on 40 man roster.

Marlins get two bats to add to the system, and then can trade Cooper for prospects/other to help mitigate the losses.

Makes a lot of sense both ways.

- - - - - - - - - -



I didn't see this post as I was rage typing, but I think it's fun we basically landed on the same thing. Brevity is not a strong suit of mine.

What was there not to like about Meyer's 2017 season at Jupiter? The Marlins liked it enough to jump him right to the majors the following year. Whatever. Not everyone works out. Jerar Encarnacion tailed off after he reached Jupiter, but did put up numbers that were pretty identical to Bleday, who is the very same age AND a top five prospect of yours if I remember correctly. Hell, Peyton Burdick is probably better than both of them. And what is there not to like about Heineman???

As to the Anderson/Andujar debate, Anderson hadn't reached the majors at age 23. Andujar was second in the Rookie of the Year voting at that age. I see Anderson as solid ... but Andujar as a budding star.

All in all, we seem to have basic agreement on an Andujar trade.

[lou]

What was there not to like about Meyer's 2017 season at Jupiter? The Marlins liked it enough to jump him right to the majors the following year. Whatever. Not everyone works out. Jerar Encarnacion tailed off after he reached Jupiter, but did put up numbers that were pretty identical to Bleday, who is the very same age AND a top five prospect of yours if I remember correctly. Hell, Peyton Burdick is probably better than both of them. And what is there not to like about Heineman???

As to the Anderson/Andujar debate, Anderson hadn't reached the majors at age 23. Andujar was second in the Rookie of the Year voting at that age. I see Anderson as solid ... but Andujar as a budding star.

All in all, we seem to have basic agreement on an Andujar trade.

Meyer was 24 years old in A ball. Of course he's going to have good stats. And Jerar, because he did well for 2 months, doesn't seesaw from a 25th best prospect to top 5 in the organization. Heineman just had his first real success at 27/28 years old in AAA. Rinse repeat, age matters, sample sizes matter.

Burdick is not better than Bleday. Every single talent evaluator considers Bleday a top 5 prospect in marlins system. Portraying this as a top 5 prospect of mine is wrong - it's everyones top 5 prospect.

Just stop embarrassing yourself.

[Lee Stone]

Meyer was 24 years old in A ball. Of course he's going to have good stats. And Jerar, because he did well for 2 months, doesn't seesaw from a 25th best prospect to top 5 in the organization. Heineman just had his first real success at 27/28 years old in AAA. Rinse repeat, age matters, sample sizes matter.

Burdick is not better than Bleday. Every single talent evaluator considers Bleday a top 5 prospect in marlins system. Portraying this as a top 5 prospect of mine is wrong - it's everyones top 5 prospect.

Just stop embarrassing yourself.

Yep, I'm embarrassed to have been down on Brinson, Kolek, Moran, Victor Victor, Scott, Naylor, etc. when "everyone" annoited them as top level prospects.

[lou]

Yep, I'm embarrassed to have been down on Brinson, Kolek, Moran, Victor Victor, Scott, Naylor, etc. when "everyone" annoited them as top level prospects.

Nice whataboutism right there. Don't have a good answer - deflect and dodge

[fish16]

Yep, I'm embarrassed to have been down on Brinson, Kolek, Moran, Victor Victor, Scott, Naylor, etc. when "everyone" annoited them as top level prospects.

colin moran is a solid mlb 3b, josh naylor reached the majors at 21, and connor scott is still a very good prospect.

[lou]

colin moran is a solid mlb 3b, josh naylor reached the majors at 21, and connor scott is still a very good prospect.

Don't worry, he's going to like Scott when he has a hot 3 weeks in April

[tjfla]

Not sure I agree with this. The guy is coming off a major shoulder injury, and as you said there's not really a spot for him, that's why he's being shopped. Also, as been mentioned the Yankees have a serious roster crunch right now, so they are going to value lower level guys that have several years before they have to be put on the 40-man.

I think something like this is realistic:

Marlins Get:

Clint Frazier
Miguel Andujar
Miguel Yajure

Yankees Get:
Caleb Smith
Kameron Misner
Tristan Pompey
Evan Fitterer
Chris Mokma

One thing about the NYY roster crunch is they don't really have to add guys to 40 man if they dont want. Cashman every year talks minor trades-I wouldnt be surprised if he had 2 or 3 lined up already in case he doesn't wanna add a Yajure or Gil

Marlins would do Caleb Smith for Frazier in a second as they tried a few times a the deadline. NYY would probably prefer Soriano or Palacios but could see Caleb/Jerar/Soriano type deal

Should say havent heard much talk with NYY yet this offseason-would change fast if Frazier or Andujar are on the block. Miami seems to be looking at Boston/Arizona/FA at this point but business will pick up Tuesday/Wed next week )Hearing we might have a few trades already lined up(RP on 40 man-Keller,Kinley/RP not on 40 man-Eveld,Chad Smith,Poteet/Bats-Riddle/Brigman) depending on lists

By way before anyone says why would NYY or anyone want Caleb when they can sign FA. Remember FA's like Roark/Pineda are gonna go for 8-10 million per year. Cole wants like 6/200+ Caleb is gonna make like 5 million and is under control. Miami likes him alot but if u can get a younger bat and replace him for another 3 million(Pineda replaces Caleb) they would do it in a second because by 2021 8 SP are ready to go. Same reason why Urena is getting calls-controllable SP who some teams like as a RP/CL

[Lee Stone]

Article from swingsandmishes.com that most of you will find interesting. https://swingsandmishes.com/marlins-...david-peralta/

Marlins would do Caleb Smith for Frazier in a second as they tried a few times a the deadline. NYY would probably prefer Soriano or Palacios but could see Caleb/Jerar/Soriano type deal Say what? For Clint Frazier?