2019-2020 Offseason Discussion

[rmc523]

1 year in which we're no better than a 72-win team even with Lindor, and a 2nd year where you have to hope that every single prospect above AA becomes a contributor by 2021 to have hope of being a playoff team. You trade for stars so that they're around for the years you think you'll be good. Putting all your chips on 2021 looks risky at this point.

I'm with you - which is why you pretty much have to make a deal contingent upon an extension. But if they're dead set on trying to acquire one of those guys, you go for the ones you control for 2 years vs. the one you control for a single year, IMO.

[Namaste]

Lololololtrollolololol we are not signing Lindor.

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In the year of the AAA HR ball, Gallen was 9-1 for New Orleans with a 1.71 ERA in over 90 innings ... with a WHIP of .71. Neither Sixto nor Edward will ever touch those numbers (because virtually no one ever does). In seven starts for Miami, his ERA was 2.97. In eight starts for Arizona, his ERA was 2.89. Gallen has made himself into something special.

Can we pin this post for the lol’s in 18-36 months?

[fish16]

Am I the only one who would be all about signing Donaldson to a big ass 2 year deal and moving Anderson to rf for at least the next two years. That’s without me knowing if there are any draft picks attached to him so if there are then no, but if not I feel like that would be the best signing in terms of immediate impact, adding a big time name, and doing so without breaking the bank on a stupid long term 7+ year deal that never works out towards the end of the contract

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Or since I’m reading that his defense regressed at third, move him to first, cooper to lf, then just keep Anderson at 3b

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Nvm on the defense I read the article wrong, he was still good defensively. So I’d do 2 years 50 million if he’s down to take that. Better than going 3-4 years on a merely decent player like didi or castellanos

[rmc523]

Am I the only one who would be all about signing Donaldson to a big ass 2 year deal and moving Anderson to rf for at least the next two years. That’s without me knowing if there are any draft picks attached to him so if there are then no, but if not I feel like that would be the best signing in terms of immediate impact, adding a big time name, and doing so without breaking the bank on a stupid long term 7+ year deal that never works out towards the end of the contract

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Or since I’m reading that his defense regressed at third, move him to first, cooper to lf, then just keep Anderson at 3b

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Nvm on the defense I read the article wrong, he was still good defensively. So I’d do 2 years 50 million if he’s down to take that. Better than going 3-4 years on a merely decent player like didi or castellanos

I mean......what does that accomplish though if only 2 years?

That's the same scenario as Bryant/Lindor - you're getting these guys in lost years where they may help make you better, but they're gone by the time you want to/will be good.

[fish16]

I mean......what does that accomplish though if only 2 years?

That's the same scenario as Bryant/Lindor - you're getting these guys in lost years where they may help make you better, but they're gone by the time you want to/will be good.

You fill a major hole in your lineup with an all star level talent and leader and don’t have a pathetically low payroll while also not breaking the bank years down the line for a merely above average player. Also, unlike those two you named you don’t have to give up anything but money, and I don’t think it’s at all unrealistic to think we can be a contender for a wild card spot in 2021. This rebuild is going to pick up at an exponential pace at some point if all these guys come up and produce to the level we think they will. It won’t be a linear improvement considering how many of these guys will be coming up in the middle of next year alone. Next year we will see neidert, monte, a full year of Diaz, sixto, Cabrera, Jesus Sanchez, Jazz, Guzman, and perhaps cups of coffee at the end of the year for Garrett and Rogers, and maybe Lewin Diaz as well

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I think this is gonna be an exponential type improvement come 2021 similar to the cubs improvement between 14 and 15 where they went from 73 wins to 97

[Nick]

I think I'd rather sign someone similar to Donaldson to a 1-year deal after the 2020 season if we're playing for 2021. Let this year play out. Make sure you give Lewin, Sanchez, Monte, Jazz every opportunity to play if they're ready. No Diaz situations like last year. Then you have a better idea of what you're going to actually have in 2021, and can fill the holes accordingly.

A lot of these prospects are in very similar stages of their development as Isan Diaz was last season at this time. Diaz of course had his breakout year at AAA, but then struggled at the big league level. I think most of us here outside Lee think Diaz will be just fine, that the bat will come around, but the question is how quickly it will come around? None of us really know that. We may have a situation in 2021 where half of our lineup is filled with similar question marks, so I'm hopeful for 2021, but every single thing is going to have to turn out exactly right for that 2021 turnaround to happen like you're saying fish16.

[fish16]

I don’t think every single thing is going to have to turn out right to have a 2021 turnaround provided we make a few smart free agent signings and sixto develops into the ace we think he will. If sixto becomes that cueto Type guy right away I think that does a ton for us moving forward considering our farm system and where our players are at in their development timeline in said farm system. This year is absolutely crucial though. I’m fine with waiting a year for a Donaldson type free agent though.

[Nick]

I don’t think every single thing is going to have to turn out right to have a 2021 turnaround provided we make a few smart free agent signings and sixto develops into the ace we think he will. If sixto becomes that cueto Type guy right away I think that does a ton for us moving forward considering our farm system and where our players are at in their development timeline in said farm system. This year is absolutely crucial though. I’m fine with waiting a year for a Donaldson type free agent though.

I mean, what if Monte Harrison barely has barely over 200 ABs again this year due to injury? Or what if he's healthy all year but Ks 250 times? What's our CF situation going into 2021? Magneuris Sierra? What if Jazz hits .220 in AAA this year like he did in AA? Is Miguel Rojas a playoff caliber starting SS? What if Lewin Diaz and his 240 ABs above A-Ball isn't quite ready for big league play? These aren't ridiculous scenarios. These aren't even scenarios where these guys are busts, it's just the unknown of player development.

[fish16]

That’s why I’m saying the right combination of smart free agent signings of impactful players that don’t break the bank combined with player development

[Nick]

That’s why I’m saying the right combination of smart free agent signings of impactful players that don’t break the bank combined with player development

You're more optimistic than I. I think it'll take Sanchez, Harrison, Lewin, Isan and Jazz all being solid major league starters in 2021, we need probably 2 out of 3 between Neidert, Sixto and Cabrera to be above average major league starters by 2021, and I think we need a Rendon-like star type acquisition to expect to be in the 90-95 win range in 2021.

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There are some things that can happen in 2020 that could also help. Like Bleday destroying the baseball through the minors next year all the way to the big leagues, Braxton Garrett or Trevor Rogers making a Zac Gallen-like jump in performance, but these seem less likely to me.

[lou]

Am I the only one who would be all about signing Donaldson to a big ass 2 year deal and moving Anderson to rf for at least the next two years. That’s without me knowing if there are any draft picks attached to him so if there are then no, but if not I feel like that would be the best signing in terms of immediate impact, adding a big time name, and doing so without breaking the bank on a stupid long term 7+ year deal that never works out towards the end of the contract

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Or since I’m reading that his defense regressed at third, move him to first, cooper to lf, then just keep Anderson at 3b

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Nvm on the defense I read the article wrong, he was still good defensively. So I’d do 2 years 50 million if he’s down to take that. Better than going 3-4 years on a merely decent player like didi or castellanos

Yes. Because its 2 years of dead money that doesn't help you contend, which is realistically 2022 with the way things are gong. This is the epitome of spending money to spend money.

Castellanos for say 4/$66 is UNBELIEVABLY better for this team than 2/$50 and losing your 3rd round pick for Donaldson. This isn't even a debate

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How hard is this to understand they should use 2020/2021 low payroll thresholds to secure a piece who will be useful in 2022/2023 at a lower cost by front loading them?

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They should be paying Anderson on a front loaded buyout, and Castellanos/Ozuna/Wheeler, $25+ million combined in 2020 and 2021, so then they cost under $20 in 2022 and 2023, and Anderson costs like $5-7 million in 2024 as the final year in a 5 year deal.

This gets them an extra $5-7 million player in 2022, 2023, and 2024 because you just spent more money up front in 20 and 21? You've created an asset while you are a non-contender. That is how you do it.

But let's pay Donaldson that money to win 3 more games in 20 and 21 and get nothing later?

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Let's agree on something. The only "untouchables" on the Marlins AND in their system are Chisholm (gave up our best starter for him), S. Sanchez, and Edward Cabrera. If somebody wants Alcantara, C Smith, or Pablo, fine, but the three I mentioned are most likely to be star players. You don't trade a future star for two years of a current star.

I'd say Anderson is the only untouchable, as they have nothing at 3B in the organization, he stands alone as a good longterm right handed bat, and he's proved it for 2 years.

Everyone else can be had for the right price considering player redundancy, although the next 12 names on this list will have very very heavy value.

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I wouldn't trade for any star player without an extension already negotiated.

Duh.

Trading anything for a major 1-2 year player as a non-contender is idiotic.

[tjfla]

Yes. Because its 2 years of dead money that doesn't help you contend, which is realistically 2022 with the way things are gong. This is the epitome of spending money to spend money.

Castellanos for say 4/$66 is UNBELIEVABLY better for this team than 2/$50 and losing your 3rd round pick for Donaldson. This isn't even a debate

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How hard is this to understand they should use 2020/2021 low payroll thresholds to secure a piece who will be useful in 2022/2023 at a lower cost by front loading them?

- - - - - - - - - -

They should be paying Anderson on a front loaded buyout, and Castellanos/Ozuna/Wheeler, $25+ million combined in 2020 and 2021, so then they cost under $20 in 2022 and 2023, and Anderson costs like $5-7 million in 2024 as the final year in a 5 year deal.

This gets them an extra $5-7 million player in 2022, 2023, and 2024 because you just spent more money up front in 20 and 21? You've created an asset while you are a non-contender. That is how you do it.

But let's pay Donaldson that money to win 3 more games in 20 and 21 and get nothing later?

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I'd say Anderson is the only untouchable, as they have nothing at 3B in the organization, he stands alone as a good longterm right handed bat, and he's proved it for 2 years.

Everyone else can be had for the right price considering player redundancy, although the next 12 names on this list will have very very heavy value.

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Duh.

Trading anything for a major 1-2 year player as a non-contender is idiotic.

QO are pretty much off the board unless Rendon or Cole. So if they got a QO no point in even saying the name.

If they can get Castellanos for 4/66 Miami would do it in a second. The road blocks are Boras is demanding 100+ million(just like LY with his guys he aint gonna get it) and Castellanos wants to play for a contender.

Miami and CWS would prolly overpay for him NOT 100 million but then the other issue comes in.Same issues as every other Boras FA-Keuchel got 3 yr offers from bad teams and waiting for 1 year from Atlanta

[tjfla]

Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
·
14h
Marlins will stay away from real long deals but hope to make offensive upgrades provided they don’t block better prospects. Jose Abreu is of interest. They could look at OF, which may mean Miami product Castellanos or ex Marlin Ozuna (tho those pricetags could be a bit steep)

This applies to arms as well. Pretty much looking at most guys for 2 yr deals OR 2 yrs of control(can resign but dont want guys on 5 yr crazy money deals). Will go over for Castellanos and bigger names

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Rumor that is going around is IF Miami does get JD,Abreu(Not likely),Castellanos,another RH 1B type then Garrett Cooper could be sold to Japan(remember rumor LY). 3 or 4 teams over there like him alot. But if they would get 1 of those guys Cooper is likely gone

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Serious question what do people think about JD Martinez as 1B/RF option and his contract? Devers or OF and an mid level arm?

Miami has been talking to Boston alot about JD,Betts(NOTHING close) but its an option it seems. They arent giving him away but arent asking for tons either

[rmc523]

Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
·
14h
Marlins will stay away from real long deals but hope to make offensive upgrades provided they don’t block better prospects. Jose Abreu is of interest. They could look at OF, which may mean Miami product Castellanos or ex Marlin Ozuna (tho those pricetags could be a bit steep)

This applies to arms as well. Pretty much looking at most guys for 2 yr deals OR 2 yrs of control(can resign but dont want guys on 5 yr crazy money deals). Will go over for Castellanos and bigger names

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Rumor that is going around is IF Miami does get JD,Abreu(Not likely),Castellanos,another RH 1B type then Garrett Cooper could be sold to Japan(remember rumor LY). 3 or 4 teams over there like him alot. But if they would get 1 of those guys Cooper is likely gone

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Serious question what do people think about JD Martinez as 1B/RF option and his contract? Devers or OF and an mid level arm?

Miami has been talking to Boston alot about JD,Betts(NOTHING close) but its an option it seems. They arent giving him away but arent asking for tons either

I'd be incredibly disappointed if we sign Abreu. There's zero reason to even consider him with the QO.

I don't understand your Cooper/Japan comment. They can't just ship a guy to Japan? Why wouldn't they trade with any of the other 29 clubs?

[lou]

Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
·
14h
Marlins will stay away from real long deals but hope to make offensive upgrades provided they don’t block better prospects. Jose Abreu is of interest. They could look at OF, which may mean Miami product Castellanos or ex Marlin Ozuna (tho those pricetags could be a bit steep)

This applies to arms as well. Pretty much looking at most guys for 2 yr deals OR 2 yrs of control(can resign but dont want guys on 5 yr crazy money deals). Will go over for Castellanos and bigger names

- - - - - - - - - -

Rumor that is going around is IF Miami does get JD,Abreu(Not likely),Castellanos,another RH 1B type then Garrett Cooper could be sold to Japan(remember rumor LY). 3 or 4 teams over there like him alot. But if they would get 1 of those guys Cooper is likely gone

- - - - - - - - - -

Serious question what do people think about JD Martinez as 1B/RF option and his contract? Devers or OF and an mid level arm?

Miami has been talking to Boston alot about JD,Betts(NOTHING close) but its an option it seems. They arent giving him away but arent asking for tons either

Why does this team need a 32 year old bat (even if a great one), when they aren't going to be good for 1-2 years? JD Martinez makes -0- sense unless the Red Sox absorb a lot of salary.

Cooper would be employed by nearly every team in the league with what he did last year. Why the fuck is going to Japan?

You're making things way too complicated. They need a longterm right handed bat for 3B/OF. There is Rendon, Castellanos, and Ozuna at various price levels that are worth 4+ year deals. No one else in free agency is worth 4 years. There are perhaps a few realistic trade options, like Clint Frazier, that have 4+ years of control. That's it.