2018/2019 Offseason Thread

[emkayseven]

No way in hell we only win 55 games.

Also no way in hell would I support anyone not posting here anymore.

[tjfla]

Bud Norris to Toronto and Warren to SD

[rmc523]

Bud Norris to Toronto and Warren to SD

1/$3M (1.25 in incentives) and 1/$2M with a $2.5M 2020 option/500k buyout, respectively.

[tjfla]

1/$3M (1.25 in incentives) and 1/$2M with a $2.5M 2020 option/500k buyout, respectively.

Ya Warren was trying to get a 2 yr deal. Wish we would have offered him what SD did but o well.

Bud Norris was gone when we signed Romo

[fauowls44]

Merandy Gonzalez was claimed off waivers by San Francisco. We now have an open 40 man spot. I wonder what they have in mind. Hopefully an OF.

[fish16]

Hate that move letting him go. I’m guessing and only thing Ican think of is he had an unprofessional offseason

[lou]

Hate that move letting him go. I’m guessing and only thing Ican think of is he had an unprofessional offseason

Or maybe he is nothing more than an organizational depth arm who might be an average reliever down the road.

Think about it longterm. They are going to have 5 righties in the bullpen in 2021.

Guzman, Cabrera, Holloway, Ferrell, and E. Hernandez
Anderson, Brice, T. Kinley, T. Guerrero, and Yamamoto
J. Fernandez, Keller, Milbrath, Eveld, and Dugger
and god knows what else they'll uncover in low level deals or college guys picked in round 6.

They are fine with a 66% failure rate of legitimate potential relievers, and that doesn't include Urena, Sixto, Alcantara, Neidert, Richards, Pablo, or Gallen, and they probably only need 3 of them in the 2021 rotation. And they could keep Steckenrider.

They have their 2021 bullpen in-house right now. This is a "meh" transaction. Wittgren is still a bigger head scratcher.

[fauowls44]

Yeah, I don’t think there’s anything more to it than they just have a good amount of RHPs that they like more. I’m just wondering if they are adding another player to that 40 man spot. I know it’s very early, but it doesn’t seem like O’brien should be handed a roster spot with how he’s struggled thus far. They really should be looking to add another OF to the mix.

[lou]

Yeah, I don’t think there’s anything more to it than they just have a good amount of RHPs that they like more. I’m just wondering if they are adding another player to that 40 man spot. I know it’s very early, but it doesn’t seem like O’brien should be handed a roster spot with how he’s struggled thus far. They really should be looking to add another OF to the mix.

I'm sure they are with a DFA. An OF makes sense for sure.

Also, conceptually they should be swinging for bullpen homeruns right now. Even if there is a better chance Merandy turns into an alright 7th inning reliever with a theoretical higher floor, I'd rather them in busted years stockpile guys that have much lower floors, but much higher ceilings (Holloway, Guerrero, Fernandez, Ferrell, Anderson, Brice, Eveld) and hope someone turns into a stud. They need to catch some breaks and this seems like a smart way to do it because you can always trade for Wittgren or sign Romo or Loup or Warren for nothing. It's near impossible to trade for cheap young controlled arms, signing them is expensive (Ottavino), or you give up way too much for Edwin Diaz.

[tjfla]

2 weird RP moves. First Witt and now Merandy? Still only 23. Opens up a 40 man spot but its not like he is a big loss since 1 thing we do well is develop RP which he probably is

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Or maybe he is nothing more than an organizational depth arm who might be an average reliever down the road.

Think about it longterm. They are going to have 5 righties in the bullpen in 2021.

Guzman, Cabrera, Holloway, Ferrell, and E. Hernandez
Anderson, Brice, T. Kinley, T. Guerrero, and Yamamoto
J. Fernandez, Keller, Milbrath, Eveld, and Dugger
and god knows what else they'll uncover in low level deals or college guys picked in round 6.

They are fine with a 66% failure rate of legitimate potential relievers, and that doesn't include Urena, Sixto, Alcantara, Neidert, Richards, Pablo, or Gallen, and they probably only need 3 of them in the 2021 rotation. And they could keep Steckenrider.

They have their 2021 bullpen in-house right now. This is a "meh" transaction. Wittgren is still a bigger head scratcher.

They take college arms in RD 5,8,9 usually get it right

[Nick]

Hate that move letting him go. I’m guessing and only thing Ican think of is he had an unprofessional offseason

I feel like you've had to make this statement with at least 3 maybe 4 moves we've made this offseason. I'm leaning towards the FO doesn't know what they're doing.

[lou]

I feel like you've had to make this statement with at least 3 maybe 4 moves we've made this offseason. I'm leaning towards the FO doesn't know what they're doing.

Incompetence is a bit harsh for me. I think it's a philosophical prospect perspective where they are shooting for ceilings across the board (Alcantara, Guzman, Devers, Monte, Scott, Osiris, J. Fernandez, Guerrero, Eveld, N. Anderson, etc.), versus worrying about higher floor players. It's the belief in young guys who "look the part" and looking to hit grand slams on uncovering the guy who gets to his 90th percentile projection. i.e., find a difference maker. Frankly, this is how you eventually get Stanton and Realmuto outside the first round and Ozuna for nothing in international acquisitions.

I don't think this is a problem, especially given this is the early stages of a rebuild. Go for broke with most of your moves and try to develop above average players versus guy who may be a 5th reliever in the bullpen. Merandy is a decent reliever prospect, and Wittgren is a good decent reliever, but those guys aren't pushing the needle (and ignoring that they are cheap FA replacements based on current market). If Guerrero cuts his walk rate or Fernandez comes back healthy or they hit on one of Anderson/Brice/Eveld/Ferrell/Hernandez (i.e. the relatively 'free' recent acquisitions), they are going to look smart. I'm looking at the 40 man, and there is some real arm talent and I'll risk losing multiple average potential guys with higher floors to develop one stud reliever.

This is where it comes back to the whole, Loria didn't invest in the draft nor IFA. Swing for the fences with Scott and Osiris nearly every time, but then spend the money and get VVM (VVM I would consider an outlier an "high floor" player (defense makes him a regular) versus the volatility of the guys in first paragraph) so you are developing that high floor so you're not totally screwed if you whiff on a few. Obviously, draft better to round this out and try and identify a Riddle (13th round) and Steckenrider (8th round) always. When the team is better, they can dial it back and build in a little less risk. But right now? Go for broke.

As for Merandy, my criticism is probably, just DFA Prado. Who cares about him and let all of O'Brien/Cooper/Dean/Ramirez/Guerrero take their shot. Past that, if they like Brigham, Keller, Hernandez, Brice, and Kinley longterm over Merandy or Wittgren, so be it.

[fish16]

I feel like you've had to make this statement with at least 3 maybe 4 moves we've made this offseason. I'm leaning towards the FO doesn't know what they're doing.

You're right, some of the moves have just been headscratchers. I thought i understood the wittgren deal as him not being the type of flamethrowing arm out of the pen that they preferred, but merandy was the type of guy who seemed like their profile as a reliever. And especially given that we have some guys on the 40 man who he has to be a better option than, or even if its a different position, a guy he has a higher ceiling than. Overall, right handed reliever is probably something that we have more than enough of long term in the organization, just hate to see us give up a guy who clearly has some talent when it isnt really necessary at the moment. It's different when we do deals with a team like the yankees in november prior to the rule 5 who need 40 man roster space. It's just a weird move, but I could be guilty of overrating Merandy. That mets deal with ramos looks like a pretty negligible deal on both sides.

[Nick]

I mean Merandy was in a lot of Top 10 prospect lists for us coming into 2018, I know his stock had dropped, but we never even fully tried him as a reliever, he made 0 appearances as a reliever in the minors last year. He's only 23, just seems foolish. I'd take him over almost all those names lou listed. Except for maybe Hernandez.

[fish16]

Chen really needs to not be in the rotation to start the year. It just makes no sense. I wish we could just deal him for another bad contract lineup guy just to end this shit for both sides. I will never understand why he went from a legitimate quality pitcher in baltimore to complete garbage from literally the first pitch of his tenure here.

Rotation needs to be Urena, Straily, Alcantara, Lopez, Richards with Smith as the next guy up but id give him a few turns through the minor league AA or AAA team or just take it easy with him and stretch him out in spring but make him a bullpen guy to start the year until the inevitable injury or struggle in the rotation happens.

Bullpen should be Conley, Steck, Romo, Chen, Smith, Guerrero, Jarlin, last spot

With a lineup of Granderson, Starlin, Brinson, Anderson, Walker/O'Brien, Alfaro, Dean/3rd OF, Rojas/Riddle

Bench of- Prado (super utility), Rojas/riddle, Backup C, and 4th Of (sierra or any of those veterans, preferably veterans).

Unless im missing something, barring an inevitable injury the 25 man roster looks fairly set

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I mean Merandy was in a lot of Top 10 prospect lists for us coming into 2018, I know his stock had dropped, but we never even fully tried him as a reliever, he made 0 appearances as a reliever in the minors last year. He's only 23, just seems foolish. I'd take him over almost all those names lou listed. Except for maybe Hernandez.

Exactly. I brought that up a bunch last year with Tjfla. They needed to stick him in the rotation until he failed, but once he failed there they needed to give him time to see what he can do in the pen. the biggest issue for me is just how unnecessary and rushed it feels. Thats why i feel like merandy especially could have had just a very bad offseason as a young guy who reached the majors pretty quickly for us.

Just on the 40 i see guys who could have gone before him if the spot was the issue like Wallach, Kinley, Keller, Brigham, and Herrera.

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Also for the love of god, idc if Brinson is hitting .180, if he is in the majors, give him at least a chance in an already below average at best lineup and hit him in the heart of the order or leadoff and not 8th like we did last year. Put your guys in positions to succeed at the very least.