2018/2019 Offseason Thread

[fauowls44]

I know it's a lot to ask the Marlins to act like a real organization, but a real organization throws in $5-$6 million to go along with Castro and you get a nice return.

But why would a team give up a prospect when they can just sign a similar player?

[Nick]

But why would a team give up a prospect when they can just sign a similar player?

Well if you're trading him during the season you get him for the stretch run. I understand what you're saying during the off-season. I just don't believe there wasn't a team that could've used his services for the run towards the playoffs, and his subsequent year on his contract should not have scared teams away, especially if the Marlins would be willing to throw in some cash.

[lou]

I know it's a lot to ask the Marlins to act like a real organization, but a real organization throws in $5-$6 million to go along with Castro and you get a nice return.

Yea. Last year he had a year left on his contract though. This year, he doesn't (he has an option with a low buyout that is inconsequential).

I think that strategy can be deployed much easier this year. If they don't sign him longterm, that's the move for sure. That gives Diaz 4 months in AAA.

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I'm still offering 4/$48 and seeing what happens. Diaz can be move to 3B and Anderson RF/1B.

[fish16]

Yea. Last year he had a year left on his contract though. This year, he doesn't (he has an option with a low buyout that is inconsequential).

I think that strategy can be deployed much easier this year. If they don't sign him longterm, that's the move for sure. That gives Diaz 4 months in AAA.

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I'm still offering 4/$48 and seeing what happens. Diaz can be move to 3B and Anderson RF/1B.

for the life of me i dont understand why you keep bringing up signing Castro to an extension. He's been a thoroughly mediocre player for the better part of his career, the only exceptions coming in 2 years in great ballparks in Yankee stadium and Wrigley. Especially now that he isnt a SS anymore, he is the exact player i would never under any circumstances sign to a 4 year extension. You can find starlin castro type production on a year to year basis very very easily on the free agent market for cheaper. Those mid level contracts are almost never a value. Im cool with signing all star level players but my ideal team is likely team control guys mostly and then stars signed to bigger deals.

[Lee Stone]

for the life of me i dont understand why you keep bringing up signing Castro to an extension. He's been a thoroughly mediocre player for the better part of his career, the only exceptions coming in 2 years in great ballparks in Yankee stadium and Wrigley. Especially now that he isnt a SS anymore, he is the exact player i would never under any circumstances sign to a 4 year extension. You can find starlin castro type production on a year to year basis very very easily on the free agent market for cheaper. Those mid level contracts are almost never a value. Im cool with signing all star level players but my ideal team is likely team control guys mostly and then stars signed to bigger deals.

I believe Lou is applying WAR principles in his evaluation of Castro. Pick a number. $7M for 1 WAR or $9M or whatever. Castro put up a 3.3 WAR last season. By any measure, he is theoretically more valuable than his $12M salary. With Realmuto gone, Starlin and B Anderson are the only Marlins who put up any WAR numbers whatever. Problem is that the Marlins have no near term potential to compete and paying Castro is a waste. The concept of paying half his salary and trading him for a single 45 level prospect is more logical.

Banking on Isan Diaz as the future second baseman is ill-conceived from my perspective. I can't see the current version of Diaz contributing shit. He could improve, I wouldn't rule that out, but it's a longshot. The Yankees released a mid-twenties guy named Locastro today. He could play second for the Marlins right now.

[fish16]

I believe Lou is applying WAR principles in his evaluation of Castro. Pick a number. $7M for 1 WAR or $9M or whatever. Castro put up a 3.3 WAR last season. By any measure, he is theoretically more valuable than his $12M salary. With Realmuto gone, Starlin and B Anderson are the only Marlins who put up any WAR numbers whatever. Problem is that the Marlins have no near term potential to compete and paying Castro is a waste. The concept of paying half his salary and trading him for a single 45 level prospect is more logical.

Banking on Isan Diaz as the future second baseman is ill-conceived from my perspective. I can't see the current version of Diaz contributing shit. He could improve, I wouldn't rule that out, but it's a longshot. The Yankees released a mid-twenties guy named Locastro today. He could play second for the Marlins right now.

No, he couldnt. Your prospect evaluation is laughably bad.

[Lee Stone]

Nice chat.

[Namaste]

So "Swings and Mishes", Craig Mish's podcast twitter account just tweeted this:

https://twitter.com/SwingsAndMishes/...52205319057416

For those without twitter it has a shit ton of siren emojis and says "*whispers* there are Marlins things happening today"

One would assume JT News, but potentially Machado news? Or, since it's the Marlins, some small signing.

EDIT: Or just the start of hitters camp. I would hope that's not what he mean, though.

EDIT Again: It's the hitters camp thing.

lololololol

[fish16]

Nice chat.

there is no chatting with someone who continually says some of the dumbest, most uneducated shit on a daily basis other than to call out when you say utterly dumbass statements such as the 26 year old who the yankees released would be our best player.

[lou]

for the life of me i dont understand why you keep bringing up signing Castro to an extension. He's been a thoroughly mediocre player for the better part of his career, the only exceptions coming in 2 years in great ballparks in Yankee stadium and Wrigley. Especially now that he isnt a SS anymore, he is the exact player i would never under any circumstances sign to a 4 year extension. You can find starlin castro type production on a year to year basis very very easily on the free agent market for cheaper. Those mid level contracts are almost never a value. Im cool with signing all star level players but my ideal team is likely team control guys mostly and then stars signed to bigger deals.

I disagree you can "easily" find 2-3 WAR players on a year to year basis. Everyone in baseball would be thrilled. You will end up with Neil Walker and Martin Prado more often than not.

It's simply a value proposition. If guys like LeMahieu and Lowrie are getting $10-12 per year, there is an opportunity of locking in Castro for his age 29-32 seasons, when he just had BIG BB rate/Hard Hit spikes to think there is upside in the bat. He's a high floor guy with his hit tool and positive defense. Maybe he would take a deal two years from free agency seeing the landscape. He would be very nice at the right price. If he wants to test free agency? See ya.

[fish16]

I disagree you can "easily" find 2-3 WAR players on a year to year basis. Everyone in baseball would be thrilled. You will end up with Neil Walker and Martin Prado more often than not.

It's simply a value proposition. If guys like LeMahieu and Lowrie are getting $10-12 per year, there is an opportunity of locking in Castro for his age 29-32 seasons, when he just had BIG BB rate/Hard Hit spikes to think there is upside in the bat. He's a high floor guy with his hit tool and positive defense. Maybe he would take a deal two years from free agency seeing the landscape. He would be very nice at the right price. If he wants to test free agency? See ya.

neil walker had between 2-4 WAR every year aside from last year since 2010. My point is that there are much better ways to spend that money, not that Castro isnt necessarily worth that money on the open market. I just think he is a thoroughly average player in a league that is all of a sudden very deep in quality 2b. Again, if his hit tool could be paired with solid defense at SS that would be another scenario, but at 2b he is just unbelievably average and not at all the type of guy you sign to any more than a 1 year deal or maybe a 2 year deal.

Jed lowrie has also been phenomenal the past 2 years and Lemahieu has been solid too, and neither of them got 4 year deals. I guess my biggest problem is the length of the deal youre offering as it seems to make 0 sense to me given our time frame, a 2b prospect right behind castro who will be ML ready this year, and the fact that he is just a very slightly above average player. Signing him to a long term deal makes 0 sense. A 1 year extension or something smaller, maybe, but 4 years at 12 per for Castro is a horrendous deal.

[rmc523]

https://theathletic.com/768612/2019/...ahieu-signing/

Ken Rosenthal at the Athletic said the marlins plan on spending this offseason, and are interested in signing/acquiring a left handed bat of some sort.

He mentioned maybe trading for the Brewers’ Eric Thames as apossibility.

Others mentioned:

OF Carlos Gonzalez

OF Curtis Granderson

OF Nick Markakis

OF Gerardo Parra

1B Lucas Duda

1B Logan Morrison

IF Neil Walker.

He also pointed out the Marlins wouldn't be the first choice for any of them, but they may become an option for these guys as positions on contenders disappear.

[Lee Stone]

Fascinating thought (to me). Might have been interesting to deal Realmuto to TB before they acquired Zunino for Mallex Smith. CF Smith would have been an interesting piece for Miami in a trade with the Rays because: 1) Marlins need a leadoff hitter 2) Smith had 3.5 WAR last season 3) Smith's OBP was higher than any 2018 Marlin 4) Smith's OPS was higher than any Marlin other than Realmuto and 5) his 40 SB almost equaled Miami's entire team total.

[lou]

neil walker had between 2-4 WAR every year aside from last year since 2010. My point is that there are much better ways to spend that money, not that Castro isnt necessarily worth that money on the open market. I just think he is a thoroughly average player in a league that is all of a sudden very deep in quality 2b. Again, if his hit tool could be paired with solid defense at SS that would be another scenario, but at 2b he is just unbelievably average and not at all the type of guy you sign to any more than a 1 year deal or maybe a 2 year deal.

Jed lowrie has also been phenomenal the past 2 years and Lemahieu has been solid too, and neither of them got 4 year deals. I guess my biggest problem is the length of the deal youre offering as it seems to make 0 sense to me given our time frame, a 2b prospect right behind castro who will be ML ready this year, and the fact that he is just a very slightly above average player. Signing him to a long term deal makes 0 sense. A 1 year extension or something smaller, maybe, but 4 years at 12 per for Castro is a horrendous deal.

The Marlins need thoroughly average players, and you are ignoring his upside in BB rate/Hard hit spikes. Castro isn't a shlub and paying him the same as DJ/Lowrie for his exit prime years 29-32 isn't "horrendous." Diaz can play 3B. He played their this winter. There aren't issues. But if you don't like him, cool. I am for signing any player at beneficial amounts, and Castro at something around 4/$48 would be that. You're getting a $20-30 million in surplus value easy, which is the value of a FV50 prospect, which is a player the Marlins can't get for Castro in a trade today. That's maximizing an asset. That being said, since you hold his option next year, you can probably wait to do this after this year. If he breaks out, the chance for a real deal has expired though.

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He also pointed out the Marlins wouldn't be the first choice for any of them, but they may become an option for these guys as positions on contenders disappear.

That's what they should be doing. Opportunistic signings for guys who want playing time. They are doing the right thing.

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Fascinating thought (to me). Might have been interesting to deal Realmuto to TB before they acquired Zunino for Mallex Smith. CF Smith would have been an interesting piece for Miami in a trade with the Rays because: 1) Marlins need a leadoff hitter 2) Smith had 3.3 WAR last season 3) Smith's OBP was higher than any 2018 Marlin 4) Smith's OPS was higher than any Marlin other than Realmuto and 5) his 40 SB almost equaled Miami's entire team total.

Tell us more about Tampa Lee

[fish16]

I dont think Castro all of a sudden became a patient hitter who hits the ball harder. Im guessing it has more to do with teams giving him less to hit in a much worse lineup than he was in recent years. Also, 48 walks in 600 ab's is nothing all that impressive at all anyways.

- - - - - - - - - -

https://theathletic.com/768612/2019/...ahieu-signing/

Ken Rosenthal at the Athletic said the marlins plan on spending this offseason, and are interested in signing/acquiring a left handed bat of some sort.

He mentioned maybe trading for the Brewers’ Eric Thames as apossibility.

Others mentioned:

OF Carlos Gonzalez

OF Curtis Granderson

OF Nick Markakis

OF Gerardo Parra

1B Lucas Duda

1B Logan Morrison

IF Neil Walker.

He also pointed out the Marlins wouldn't be the first choice for any of them, but they may become an option for these guys as positions on contenders disappear.

makes sense. They need 1 OF and 1 1b so we dont have to completely rely on O'Brian and Cooper and then maybe another OF bench bat so as not to have to rush prospects for major league injuries in a lost season.