2018/2019 Offseason Thread

[Lee Stone]

Best of luck to Jordan Yamamoto as he starts for the Salt River Rafters in the AFL championship game tomorrow. Overall, Yamamoto performed as well as any pitching prospect in Arizona, inc. Forrest Whitley. He had a notable year all around. Brian Miller had the hit that secured the SRR a spot in the title game and will probably get the start in CF over Harrison. It was a tough run down the stretch for Monte, who pretty much went 0 for the last two weeks. Marlin relievers Keller, Evold and C Smith all found the AFL to be a humbling experience.

[lou]

Mike Hill says Caleb Smith should be ready opening day - https://twitter.com/DuseReport/statu...48582475780096

So that's good. Seems like Urena, Chen, Alcantara, Ca. Smith, and Pablo will be the opening day rotation.

I like the idea of Steckenrider, Richards, Wittgren, Guerrero, and I guess some Brigham/Kinley/Graves/Meyer/Merandy battle for the last righty spot.

I suspect Conley, Garcia, and some TBD lefty (to let Peters/Quijada throw in AAA) round out the staff.

- - - - - - - - - -

Also a 40 man article - https://www.mlb.com/marlins/news/top-rule-5-eligible-prospects-for-all-30-teams/c-300531350

Marlins Top 30 Prospects for protection:

Miami Marlins (6)
2. Monte Harrison, CF
9. Isan Diaz, SS
17. Jordan Yamamoto, RHP
18. Christopher Torres, SS
26. Brayan Hernandez, CF
30. McKenzie Mills, LHP

First three are obvious. I never thought of Torres before, that's going to cut into their numbers. They just got Mills and he's a lefty so they probably protect him. I can't imagine Hernandez is protected. No one is putting him on a 25 man roster.

I am pretty sure Schales and Quijada count and they should be protected. Interestingly, this means Guzman does NOT need to be protected which was a debate.

So right now, it's something like this:

SP - Urena, Chen, Straily, Alcantara, Lopez, Ca. Smith (6)

RHP - Brigham, M. Gonzalez, Graves, Guerrero, E. Hernandez, Meyer, T. Kinley, Richards, Steckenrider, Wittgren, Yamamoto (11)

LHP - Conley, Garcia, Peters, Mills, Quijada (5)

C - Realmuto (1)

IF - Anderson, Castro, Cooper, Diaz, Dietrich, O’Brien, Prado, Riddle, Rivera, Rojas, Schales, C. Torres (12)

OF -Brinson, Dean, Harrison, Lee, Sierra (5)
=40

The top exposures here are probably Twine, the other Kinley, Poteet, Norwood, I guess Wallach and Galloway, etc. Not much being lost here.

I think your bottom 5 is looking like (no order) Meyer, T. Kinley, Rivera, B. Lee, and Prado. Combined with likely moving some/all of Straily, Dietrich, Conley, and Realmuto, they got some space here for sure.

[Lee Stone]

On Twine: I can't just ignore what he accomplished at AA last August - not in light of the many lightweights on the 40-man. I certainly hold on to him for another season.

[emkayseven]

His BABIP in AA was .477. Not a typo. .477.

His career BB rate is 3.6%, but that actually DROPPED in AA to 2.5%. Again, not a typo. 2.5% walk rate with a 20% K rate (24.5% for his career)

He is decidedly not good and 100 lucky at bats does not change that.

[Lee Stone]

His BABIP in AA was .477. Not a typo. .477.

His career BB rate is 3.6%, but that actually DROPPED in AA to 2.5%. Again, not a typo. 2.5% walk rate with a 20% K rate (24.5% for his career)

He is decidedly not good and 100 lucky at bats does not change that.

BABIP is a stat that is built on the assumption that all balls put in play are equal. Of course they are not. Balls that are hit with authority have a higher likelihood of becoming hits. For whatever reason, Twine was making very good and consistent contact at Jacksonville. Now, is the incredibly low walk rate a concern? Absolutely. I'm merely saying that there are a number of players on the projected 40-man that have never been good OR lucky. I'd give him another year. P.S. Mags Sierra is still on the 40-man!

[emkayseven]

He wasn’t hitting them with authority either. Line drive percentage of 16.1%, compared to 24.6 in high A in 2018 and 22.7 in high A in 2017.

[Namaste]

lou, what do you see Monte Harrison’s ceiling/floor as?

[Lee Stone]

He wasn’t hitting them with authority either. Line drive percentage of 16.1%, compared to 24.6 in high A in 2018 and 22.7 in high A in 2017.

Isan Diaz LD% at Jacksonville this year: 16.1% Last year in high A: 21.8. Do we cut him loose or keep him because he drew some walks?

[emkayseven]

"drew some walks" is an understatement. You don't see the difference between a guy who has never hit the ball hard AND has never walked vs a guy who hits the ball harder AND walks at 4 times the rate of the other guy?

[lou]

lou, what do you see Monte Harrison’s ceiling/floor as?

That's a really hard one. His floor is nothing. If he can't hit at higher levels, he'll have a 2 WAR defensive career and be gone quick.

I've seen Michael Taylor (WASH) comps before, which isn't very good. That's a platoon 4th OF. Maybe you get the 2017 version though - .271/.320/.486, 6.7% BB, 31.7% K. I'm kind of hoping he is a CF version of Gallo that plays excellent defense. It's just hard to see a huge ceiling with the whiffs right now, but maybe he jacks 30+ and plays excellent defense so he's a really solid, frustrating, 2.5+ WAR starter. That would be solid to have through his club controlled years for sure.

I don't have huge confidence of super stardom for any of the bats, but I do think they have a collection of solid guys coming to form a cheap position core to drop free agents on top.

[Lee Stone]

That's a really hard one. His floor is nothing. If he can't hit at higher levels, he'll have a 2 WAR defensive career and be gone quick.

I've seen Michael Taylor (WASH) comps before, which isn't very good. That's a platoon 4th OF. Maybe you get the 2017 version though - .271/.320/.486, 6.7% BB, 31.7% K. I'm kind of hoping he is a CF version of Gallo that plays excellent defense. It's just hard to see a huge ceiling with the whiffs right now, but maybe he jacks 30+ and plays excellent defense so he's a really solid, frustrating, 2.5+ WAR starter. That would be solid to have through his club controlled years for sure.

I don't have huge confidence of super stardom for any of the bats, but I do think they have a collection of solid guys coming to form a cheap position core to drop free agents on top.

Agree, as much as I hate to. After what he did in the '17 fall season, scouts were raving about him. A year later, he's fallen off the map. His other tools are special enough to buy him some patience from mgmt, but I think the Michael Taylor comp is probably his ceiling. Unfortunately as well, it appears that Brinson is an even lesser version of Taylor - one that can't steal bases.

[lou]

Agree, as much as I hate to. After what he did in the '17 fall season, scouts were raving about him. A year later, he's fallen off the map. His other tools are special enough to buy him some patience from mgmt, but I think the Michael Taylor comp is probably his ceiling. Unfortunately as well, it appears that Brinson is an even lesser version of Taylor - one that can't steal bases.

He hasn't fallen off the map and is a clear top 75 prospect on Fangraphs whose list is out already. The biggest competition jump between any level in baseball is between High-A and AA. It's OK to have an adjustment year at 22 years of age. We're going to need to see something next year though for sure.

[Lee Stone]

Gabriel Guerrero will have a real shot at winning a starting OF job in spring training. Imagine that!

[tjfla]

Mike Hill says Caleb Smith should be ready opening day - https://twitter.com/DuseReport/statu...48582475780096

So that's good. Seems like Urena, Chen, Alcantara, Ca. Smith, and Pablo will be the opening day rotation.

I like the idea of Steckenrider, Richards, Wittgren, Guerrero, and I guess some Brigham/Kinley/Graves/Meyer/Merandy battle for the last righty spot.

I suspect Conley, Garcia, and some TBD lefty (to let Peters/Quijada throw in AAA) round out the staff.

- - - - - - - - - -

Also a 40 man article - https://www.mlb.com/marlins/news/top...ms/c-300531350

Marlins Top 30 Prospects for protection:

Miami Marlins (6)
2. Monte Harrison, CF
9. Isan Diaz, SS
17. Jordan Yamamoto, RHP
18. Christopher Torres, SS
26. Brayan Hernandez, CF
30. McKenzie Mills, LHP

First three are obvious. I never thought of Torres before, that's going to cut into their numbers. They just got Mills and he's a lefty so they probably protect him. I can't imagine Hernandez is protected. No one is putting him on a 25 man roster.

I am pretty sure Schales and Quijada count and they should be protected. Interestingly, this means Guzman does NOT need to be protected which was a debate.

So right now, it's something like this:

SP - Urena, Chen, Straily, Alcantara, Lopez, Ca. Smith (6)

RHP - Brigham, M. Gonzalez, Graves, Guerrero, E. Hernandez, Meyer, T. Kinley, Richards, Steckenrider, Wittgren, Yamamoto (11)

LHP - Conley, Garcia, Peters, Mills, Quijada (5)

C - Realmuto (1)

IF - Anderson, Castro, Cooper, Diaz, Dietrich, O’Brien, Prado, Riddle, Rivera, Rojas, Schales, C. Torres (12)

OF -Brinson, Dean, Harrison, Lee, Sierra (5)
=40

The top exposures here are probably Twine, the other Kinley, Poteet, Norwood, I guess Wallach and Galloway, etc. Not much being lost here.

I think your bottom 5 is looking like (no order) Meyer, T. Kinley, Rivera, B. Lee, and Prado. Combined with likely moving some/all of Straily, Dietrich, Conley, and Realmuto, they got some space here for sure.

Great to hear on Guzman

Not sure on Schales and Quijada but if they need to be they WILL be protected. Torres also will be

I wouldnt add Mills or Hernandez. Twine while showed something-there is NO chance in hell they protect him

- - - - - - - - - -

No aces there. They have plenty of arms for the rotation and a few may become 3/4s, but no aces. I'd rather spend that $20-25 million on more reliable bats.

Also want to note Fangraphs in super early rankings has 6 (4 in college and 3 of them can hit lefty!) of the top 11 prospects in 2019 draft at C and SS. https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/...t?type=0&team=. Seems like a perfect situation for the Marlins on a longterm basis.

All I'm saying here is, they will be getting 2 really good prospects for Realmuto, and one absolutely needs to be a starting pitcher. They still need top end pitching even if we all like various arms here and there.

I think they look at Rutschman and Langliers(if either are around at #4) hard. If they are both gone then CJ Abrams. The draft sets up very well for Miami-C and SS heavy at the top and we have 3 of Top 40 or so picks

- - - - - - - - - -

Yes Miami wants Tucker or Whitley but sense is its very doubtful. Like been saying more likely is a package like Alvarez/Martin/Cionel Perez or JB/Stubbs and maybe 1 or 2 more prospects for JT and Straily

Maybe if FA sign elsewhere and Houston panics they get 1 of them but not likely

[Lee Stone]

Everyone has their POV. Your suggested Houston deal strikes me as far below fair value for Realmuto.