2018/2019 Offseason Thread

[Lee Stone]

Any deal for 14 years is unbelievably stupid, but calling him a declining hitter is ridiculous and calling him a negative fielder is also pretty stupid

https://thesportsdaily.com/2018/05/0...tant-category/

Harper's decline as a hitter isn't even debatable.

[lou]

or Machado.


Another good post, lou.


I mean, am I the only one who doesn’t feel all warm and fuzzy inside thinking about the Marlins potentially signing a guy who clearly goes out of his way to step on a first baseman’s ankle?

I totally get that Machado is very good. But wouldn’t it be nice if the Marlins made their eventual big splash on someone other than the guy who made a complete ass of himself in the 2018 playoffs.


<————Dodgers are my 2nd favorite team for real.

Thanks. Burn it down. To the ground.

And I think so. Manny is so good, I think you deal with the "emotional" competitiveness, or whatever you want to call it. Also, plus the opportunity to get a 26/27 year old superstar future hall of famer in their prime. Also look at 2020/2021 FA classes which don't necessarily line up with the Marlins going for it in 2 years or so.

2020 FA high end class is Goldschmidt, Arenado, Sale, Cole, and Boegarts. I like Arenado and Boegarts on ridiculous priced longterm deals for sure, assuming Colorado and Boston don't resign them. Goldschmidt would be a nice missing piece signing even if he's over 30, but the Marlins clearly aren't there absent amazing breakouts. Those pitchers would obviously be really nice though but I wouldn't want to commit that much to them this year until we see how the minors work out.

The 2021 class is Realmuto, A. Simmons, Trout, Springer, Mookie, DeGrom, Bauer, Ray, Paxton, and a bunch of other # 3 SP. Obviously, Trout and Mookie are going to go nowhere or not realistic for Miami in any circumstance. A 31 year old Simmons you don't break the bank on. The Marlins have OF depth (theoretically), so Springer is out on a longterm deal for me as of now. And they presumably have traded Realmuto so they aren't signing him. This is clearly the "add a pitcher" class or target the second tier guys like what Houston did with Reddick.

I don't want to project over 3 free agent classes out as so much can change.

So if we're looking at the Marlins adding a complete Alpha position player whose going to be worth the money on the right side of 30, you're looking at Machado, Arenado, and Boegarts as the only in your prime super studs that could transform a team (Harper too, but he obviously is in a different category with his contract expectations).

Considering Colorado and Boston can just resign the other two (and I'd be surprised if they don't because they have money and are awesome), I think you need to think really hard about trying to get Machado now even if the money is painful.

He's exactly what they need, and there aren't more of him coming in free agency for at least 3 years, absent maybe Arenado/Xander next year.

[Nick]

https://thesportsdaily.com/2018/05/0...tant-category/

Harper's decline as a hitter isn't even debatable.

Nope not debatable, no one in the history of the MLB has ever had a really good year, a down year, and then comeback with a really good year. Especially not a 26-year old hitter. It's not like Harper did that exact thing from 2015-2017.

Solid analysis Lee.

[Lee Stone]

Nope not debatable, no one in the history of the MLB has ever had a really good year, a down year, and then comeback with a really good year. Especially not a 26-year old hitter. It's not like Harper did that exact thing from 2015-2017.

Solid analysis Lee.

Analyze this: Harper plays like a broken-down old man. JD Martinez is five years older and put up a 6 point something WAR this season. Harper 1.3 because he can't even play RF (MINUS 26 RUNS). Martinez signed a 5-year, $110M contract and will outperform Harper for every one of those five years. No need to argue about it because we shall see. The cardinal sin of baseball management is paying for future performance as if a hitter will replicate his younger days. Harper is a disaster-sure-to-happen for the "lucky" high bidder.

[Todd]

Harper hit .300/.434/.538 in the second half.

[Lee Stone]

Harper hit .300/.434/.538 in the second half.

Martinez hit .330 for the entire season. As a hitter, Martinez provided the Red Sox with pretty much exactly what he produced in 2017. That's the kind of hitter he has become. And just think, the Phillies could have signed JD for basically Carlos Santana money!

[Nick]

Analyze this: Harper plays like a broken-down old man. JD Martinez is five years older and put up a 6 point something WAR this season. Harper 1.3 because he can't even play RF (MINUS 26 RUNS). Martinez signed a 5-year, $110M contract and will outperform Harper for every one of those five years. No need to argue about it because we shall see. The cardinal sin of baseball management is paying for future performance as if a hitter will replicate his younger days. Harper is a disaster-sure-to-happen for the "lucky" high bidder.

I like this strategy of making a definitive statement, and then ending it with, we shall see.

[Lee Stone]

I like this strategy of making a definitive statement, and then ending it with, we shall see.

Doesn't it go without saying that every comment in a sports forum comes with the caveat that it is in the writer's own dumbass, stupid opinion? It should. I don't know how saying IMO after every sentence would add to the discussion.

As far as commentary "strategy" goes, may I assume that every time you say you "like" something, you mean exactly the opposite?

[fish16]

Only lee can say that JD martinez is a smarter signing than Bryce Harper while simultaneously advocating for the importance of signing based on future performance and not past performance.

[Lee Stone]

Only lee can say that JD martinez is a smarter signing than Bryce Harper while simultaneously advocating for the importance of signing based on future performance and not past performance.

?? Martinez has been doing nothing but improve in recent years, culminating with this, his best year of all. I anticipate continued excellence based on that track record. If you were to look at steamer or whatever nuance predictor of 2019 performance you prefer, you would find that Martinez is looking better than Harper. Harper's agent is looking to get him paid for what he did in the past ... an that's not the direction he's headed.

[fish16]

I think the marlins might be unveiling uniforms or logo today or this week going by their tweet this morning. We’ve got black and a light blue/teal color

[fauowls44]

I think the marlins might be unveiling uniforms or logo today or this week going by their tweet this morning. We’ve got black and a light blue/teal color

Seems like it'll definitely be this week with the release of the new colors this morning.

[fish16]

Seems like it'll definitely be this week with the release of the new colors this morning.

yup. I like the colors as it appears to be black, light blue/teal, and a red, but im interested to see how it looks as a finished product.

[rmc523]

Thanks. Burn it down. To the ground.

And I think so. Manny is so good, I think you deal with the "emotional" competitiveness, or whatever you want to call it. Also, plus the opportunity to get a 26/27 year old superstar future hall of famer in their prime. Also look at 2020/2021 FA classes which don't necessarily line up with the Marlins going for it in 2 years or so.

2020 FA high end class is Goldschmidt, Arenado, Sale, Cole, and Boegarts. I like Arenado and Boegarts on ridiculous priced longterm deals for sure, assuming Colorado and Boston don't resign them. Goldschmidt would be a nice missing piece signing even if he's over 30, but the Marlins clearly aren't there absent amazing breakouts. Those pitchers would obviously be really nice though but I wouldn't want to commit that much to them this year until we see how the minors work out.

The 2021 class is Realmuto, A. Simmons, Trout, Springer, Mookie, DeGrom, Bauer, Ray, Paxton, and a bunch of other # 3 SP. Obviously, Trout and Mookie are going to go nowhere or not realistic for Miami in any circumstance. A 31 year old Simmons you don't break the bank on. The Marlins have OF depth (theoretically), so Springer is out on a longterm deal for me as of now. And they presumably have traded Realmuto so they aren't signing him. This is clearly the "add a pitcher" class or target the second tier guys like what Houston did with Reddick.

I don't want to project over 3 free agent classes out as so much can change.

So if we're looking at the Marlins adding a complete Alpha position player whose going to be worth the money on the right side of 30, you're looking at Machado, Arenado, and Boegarts as the only in your prime super studs that could transform a team (Harper too, but he obviously is in a different category with his contract expectations).

Considering Colorado and Boston can just resign the other two (and I'd be surprised if they don't because they have money and are awesome), I think you need to think really hard about trying to get Machado now even if the money is painful.

He's exactly what they need, and there aren't more of him coming in free agency for at least 3 years, absent maybe Arenado/Xander next year.

I'm completely with you here. They're not ready for a guy like Machado, obviously if you just look at it as a single year snapshot. But, it's not like one of those types of players comes along every year that you can just sign. You already listed the other upcoming free agents, and reasons why they may not even be available by the time their FA offseason comes, so I won't get into that. I've for a while now said that a Machado signing would be our Jayson Werth deal - one you make before the team is ready, but as a sign things are changing, and as a beginning of an eventual push into annual contention.

?? Martinez has been doing nothing but improve in recent years, culminating with this, his best year of all. I anticipate continued excellence based on that track record. If you were to look at steamer or whatever nuance predictor of 2019 performance you prefer, you would find that Martinez is looking better than Harper. Harper's agent is looking to get him paid for what he did in the past ... an that's not the direction he's headed.

So Harper - a 26 year old - is a declining hitter, will never get better...no chance, and will only plummet further, but the 31 year old just had his best year of all, is sure to continue and get better for sure. Got it....

I'm not advocating signing Harper, just pointing out that your logic makes no sense.

yup. I like the colors as it appears to be black, light blue/teal, and a red, but im interested to see how it looks as a finished product.

It'll be interesting to see how all the black does with things. Just seems very dark. Also, the "Just Gettin' Started" banners and things all always had a black background, so it's clear they had that in mind from the get-go.

[lou]

?? Martinez has been doing nothing but improve in recent years, culminating with this, his best year of all. I anticipate continued excellence based on that track record. If you were to look at steamer or whatever nuance predictor of 2019 performance you prefer, you would find that Martinez is looking better than Harper. Harper's agent is looking to get him paid for what he did in the past ... an that's not the direction he's headed.

JD is a fantastic player and he should hold up the next few years, but.....

2018 BABIP

JD Martinez .375
Bryce Harper .289

I can buy Harper is not worth $400 million, and JD is a (clearly) better signing at 5/$110, but saying Bryce is a declining player is frivolous.

The only direction Bryce is heading to is Cooperstown. He has 30 WAR before he is 26. At 26, JD Martinez had -0.1 WAR for his career.

Bryce isn't in his prime yet, that's what you're buying. Only you thinks Buster Posey is a replaceable player and Bryce Harper stinks. These are first ballot HOF players.