2018/2019 Offseason Thread

[flamarlins93]

Hearing you talk every other post about how they need to get rid of Dan Straily shows this is exactly what you want. Keeping him so he can hopefully build up some value until the trade deadline is what they should be doing. Then you don't have to have all of the young pitchers burning their clocks when the team is going to suck. Alcantara and Lopez heck even Richards could benefit from working on stuff in the minors for awhile next year. If Straily is gone when one or more of those guys get injured or struggles then you have to rush those guys to the majors. It would be smart to keep him for now and maybe even sign another vet to start the year and hopefully bring back either more talent or IFA money at the trade deadline.

[Lee Stone]

Realmuto in Japan: 4-8. 2 D. 2 HR. He's doing nothing to hurt his allure to prospective trade partners.

[dim]

By way Miami is trying to trade Straily AND Urena.

Straily asking price isn't high while Urena's is but they will trade both if they get solid offers

How can the team be looking to trade Jose Urena? We just found out the front office thinks of him as a championship starter! WHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

[Lee Stone]

Realmuto keeps hitting oppo field homers in Japan - his third in three games. Watching his ugly second half of the '18 season, it was all tied to being pull happy. When Realmuto goes with the pitch, he's really, really good.

[tjfla]

Would have been interesting but supposedly Hou/Wash had a deal

Hou-Harper
Wash-JB/Stubbs/another prospect

JT deal will probably come down to Houston/Atlanta/LAD. Pretty much 100% he will be dealt however a team to watch is Seattle. NOT for JT but as a part of a 3 way trade to help another team.

Miami likes Evan White and a few others from Seattle so if a team doesn't have a bat we like(Atlanta?)maybe we see them jump in. Another scenario is if Seattle trades Paxton or a bat they could be interested in Straily/Urena/DD

I wouldn't mind doing any deal with Seattle since we always rob them

[lou]

Hearing you talk every other post about how they need to get rid of Dan Straily shows this is exactly what you want. Keeping him so he can hopefully build up some value until the trade deadline is what they should be doing. Then you don't have to have all of the young pitchers burning their clocks when the team is going to suck. Alcantara and Lopez heck even Richards could benefit from working on stuff in the minors for awhile next year. If Straily is gone when one or more of those guys get injured or struggles then you have to rush those guys to the majors. It would be smart to keep him for now and maybe even sign another vet to start the year and hopefully bring back either more talent or IFA money at the trade deadline.

For the sake of debate, service time isn't an issue for the crew:

Wittgren 2.071 - Not a super 2, let him rip
Garcia 1.132 - You'll need to keep him down 2+ months to prevent him from being a Super 2, is it worth it? Let him rip if he makes the team
Steckenrider 1.094 - Not a super 2, let him rip
Ca. Smith 1.078 - - Not a super 2, let him rip (out of options too)

Guerrero 1.004 - He should be kept down 3 weeks at some point during the season, but he might be out of options so let him rip if so
Graves 1 - Keep down until July to get another year and prevent a Super 2. NBD
E. Hernandez 1 - Keep down until July to get another year and prevent a Super 2. NBD

Richards .142 - He's interesting. He may be a longterm arm, if you can keep him in the minors for a month, you'll knock him out of being a Super 2. I like this idea. But ultimately, you still have 6 years of control so you can let him rip

Alcantara .100 - Not a super 2, let him rip

Pablo .093 - Not a super 2, let him rip. They would have to keep him down 1/2 the season to get another year of control
Meyer .079 - Not a super 2, let him rip
Peters .071 - Not a super 2, let him rip
T. Kinley .061 - Not a super 2, let him rip

Brigham .030 - Keep him down 5ish weeks, get a year of control. Easy call here.
Merandy .026 - Keep him down 5ish weeks, get a year of control. Same.

Everyone else not up yet - Neidert, Gallen, Yamamoto, Eveld, etc. - keep them down until July.

So there aren't really any major service time issues that prevent MLB innings here. No huge Super 2 concerns as it's not like Richards or Garcia would break the bank. They should keep Graves/Hernandez/Brigham/Merandy/Neidert/Gallen/etc. down until the summer, but that's about it.

[lou]

Straily basically deflects 100IP (combined) off of Alcantara, Richards, or Pablo.

I don't think that's a mandatory thing. If he stays cool. If he goes cool.

The only wrong decision is a DFA (unless they have to do it immediately to get Machado, etc., in an insane scenario). Get something or keep him.

[Lee Stone]

On spending big in free agency:

There were ten "big" contracts handed out in 2017. I'll define big as 3 yrs or more and roughly $10M or substantially more per year. Eight of them are regrettable already (Chatwood, Cobb, Cozart, W Davis, Hosmer, McGee, Santana, and Shaw).
For three years and $75M, Jake Arrieta put up a line that was nearly identical to Jose Urena, so .... Justin Upton was the only one of the ten that provided pretty much what the signing team expected.

Good luck, big spenders!

In reference to the wisecrack below, Realmuto has always been good. 5 years and $90M good? No way. As evidenced above and in prior years, we know that multi-year contracts for big money are between regrettable and disasterous about 80% of the time.

[rmc523]

Realmuto keeps hitting oppo field homers in Japan - his third in three games. Watching his ugly second half of the '18 season, it was all tied to being pull happy. When Realmuto goes with the pitch, he's really, really good.

Oh, so now he's really good.

Straily basically deflects 100IP (combined) off of Alcantara, Richards, or Pablo.

I don't think that's a mandatory thing. If he stays cool. If he goes cool.

The only wrong decision is a DFA (unless they have to do it immediately to get Machado, etc., in an insane scenario). Get something or keep him.

And really, there are several other guys you could easily DFA before you'd get to Straily (those random bench guys that can't hit their way out of a wet paper bag).

[lou]

On spending big in free agency:

There were ten "big" contracts handed out in 2017. I'll define big as 3 yrs or more and roughly $10M or substantially more per year. Eight of them are regrettable already (Chatwood, Cobb, Cozart, W Davis, Hosmer, McGee, Santana, and Shaw).
For three years and $75M, Jake Arrieta put up a line that was nearly identical to Jose Urena, so .... Justin Upton was the only one of the ten that provided pretty much what the signing team expected.

Good luck, big spenders!

In reference to the wisecrack below, Realmuto has always been good. 5 years and $90M good? No way. As evidenced above and in prior years, we know that multi-year contracts for big money are between regrettable and disasterous about 80% of the time.

Baseball is hard Lee, and one cannot have a club controlled team of beneficial contracts only and succeed. You have to swing for the fences and sign guys to put you over the top. You have to keep guys on pre-free agency deals to get value out of them their first few free agency years.

Regardless, your general point is almost right for the Marlins right now. There is no reason to spend money, unless you are getting a young top 50 overall player like Machado or Realmuto. There is no point in devoting anything above a cheap 1 year deal unless you're getting some Alpha player who can headline a 21-23 contender. It's silly to think Realmuto isn't worth a 5 year deal as long as the money is right. I agree $90 is too much, but $80 isn't. Trading him may make more sense, so we'll have to see what they do, but that's not a big delta in the money you are complaining about here.

[lou]

Big changes - https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-u...ect-valuation/

TLDR - Fangraphs thinks FV50/55 prospects are more valuable versus a couple years ago, and FV60 pitchers are A LOT A LOT more valuable.

Practically for JT, this values as:

Wash - Robles and throw ins is a good deal. Don't need Kieboom.
Atl - Soroka/Wright and Riley, Miami needs to throw in a Conley and ATL a throw in arm or two
Hou - Alvarez, Martin, Nova, C. Perez, and Stubbs - you gotta do it with bulk if no Whitley/Tucker
Col - Rodgers, Pint, and a throw in works
OAK - Luzardo and Murphy is perfect and you don't need a big time third player

Monte and Diaz also still top 75 prospects.

[rmc523]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/post...stem-rankings/

They have us ranked 20th for farm systems.

[fish16]

Green walls in the outfield changed to blue finally

[rmc523]

[lou]

Big changes - https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-u...ect-valuation/

TLDR - Fangraphs thinks FV50/55 prospects are more valuable versus a couple years ago, and FV60 pitchers are A LOT A LOT more valuable.

Practically for JT, this values as:

Wash - Robles and throw ins is a good deal. Don't need Kieboom.
Atl - Soroka/Wright and Riley, Miami needs to throw in a Conley and ATL a throw in arm or two
Hou - Alvarez, Martin, Nova, C. Perez, and Stubbs - you gotta do it with bulk if no Whitley/Tucker
Col - Rodgers, Pint, and a throw in works
OAK - Luzardo and Murphy is perfect and you don't need a big time third player

Monte and Diaz also still top 75 prospects.

And a companion article about non FV50+ prospects. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/putt...e-the-top-100/

They devalued FV45 players, and give token value to FV40 guys.

Pretty interesting.

- - - - - - - - - -

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/post...stem-rankings/

They have us ranked 20th for farm systems.

Seems pretty fair without a top end guy guy or two (we can hope for VVM, Scott, and Rogers though?), and Brinson, Anderson, and some fleeting guys graduating.