2018/2019 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

I don't doubt that there are teams who would give JT that contract, but I do doubt that they'd pay much in assets for the privilege. Those of us who watched the Marlins for years knew that Realmuto was going to be good. He should have been offered a Yelich-like contract a couple years ago.

I don't think that a team has to win a lot to draw fans. A hustling, exciting team can do that too. That's what I'm hoping to see.

not all teams have to win to draw fans consistently. In this town, you do. Its that way for every single team regardless of animus towards the ownership and front office.

- - - - - - - - - -

Lee is right on this one. He's only going to make around $5.5-6.5 in arbitration this year (catcher comps are INSANE. MLBTR predicted $6), and probably in the $8-11 range depending on how good he does in 2019. Let's just say $6 and $9 respectively to make it an easy 2/$15 million deal. He's not getting much above that unless he goes all Yelich on baseball next year.

I think your proposal is a little high, but not by much. Buster is making $21.4 and peaks at $22 million in 2022. That's an important comp.

I think you're looking at $15 + $66 = $81 million. That pays him on relatively peak arbitration figures and compares him appreciably to Buster. The discount the Marlins get is not guaranteeing year 6 and not applying inflation to Buster's payroll.

Splice up the $81 million however you like in those 5 years. That's the number. The alternative is JT wins the negotiation and gets year 6 guaranteed and it breaks around $100 million all in.

I'm going in 5/$70, maybe going up to $84 when the back and forth happens, refusing to guarantee a 6th year, and if he takes it cool, if not calling a dozen teams and moving him. Zero pressure here.

Fair enough, i have no idea how the projected arbitration stuff is determined so credit to Lee. Either way id prefer buying out 3 years of free agency just based on our window but I could see why he would insist on 4 to get back on the market sooner.

- - - - - - - - - -

I just hope they get this done sooner rather than later although i understand there is no rush. He is really the only major move we have to make this offseason other than maybe a mid level corner outfielder, 1b, or some veteran reliever fliers. Bite the bullet, get the best package you can, then see what value Straily and DD have and move on and move forward to what is going to be a purely evaluative year to see what sticks and what we have in guys like Brinson, whether Anderson can take another step, Dean, Lopez, Richards, Alcantara, and other young pitchers who might come up during the year.

[fish16]

BTW, i believe tomorrow is the day Samson is allowed to talk about his time here so knowing him you can expect to see him in front of a microphone getting the attention he craves. if it is tomorrow it is sure to make news if Samson is truly unfiltered.

- - - - - - - - - -

Also, isnt the uniform and logo release supposed to be tomorrow or was November 1 just the estimated date given?

[Ralph]

Grandad would be a damn good free agent pick up when JT gets traded. Would be a tradechip for prospects midseason as well.

[fish16]

Grandad would be a damn good free agent pick up when JT gets traded. Would be a tradechip for prospects midseason as well.

You could talk me into most free agent hitters to add but its pretty much all dependent on the years. Given that we have money available for some free agents because of how much of the team is now under team control im cool with any addition at 1b, C if we trade JT, and corner outfielders. Id just cut the deals to 2 years at the most and ideally all 1 year deals even if we have to spend a little more. See what happens and maybe get something for them at the deadline.

Id like Grandal and id do 2 years and i also think McCutchen would be a great fit on a 1 year deal to plug a hole in the lineup for this year and a good guy to have around the young guys.

[lou]

You could talk me into most free agent hitters to add but its pretty much all dependent on the years. Given that we have money available for some free agents because of how much of the team is now under team control im cool with any addition at 1b, C if we trade JT, and corner outfielders. Id just cut the deals to 2 years at the most and ideally all 1 year deals even if we have to spend a little more. See what happens and maybe get something for them at the deadline.

Id like Grandal and id do 2 years and i also think McCutchen would be a great fit on a 1 year deal to plug a hole in the lineup for this year and a good guy to have around the young guys.

I wouldn't spend on any legitimate player like that. Save all of that money to pay for big time players later and not normal starters on a losing team. They should be shedding payroll to either help pay for Realmuto, Machado, or real free agents in 2020+. Sell sell sell.

I think they should look to profit big with buy low guys like Mesoraco, LoMo, and Brad Miller (who is still 29) who could all turn it around.

Or get good platoon players a contender will want at the deadline, like Denard Span or Nick Hundley, who won't get a deal with a contender in the offseason, but would take the playing time to get traded to one in July.

That's what 2019 should be. Literally Realmuto and/or Machado or no one of merit.

[Lee Stone]

Gut feelings on Realmuto's destination. I like a number of possibilities, but AZ rises to the top because they don't seem to mind trading prospects. Chisholm and Varsho will become Marlins, esp. since Marlins brass is seeing them play for Salt River Rafters every day. Varsho is a young Realmuto clone and Chisholm can be a great SS. Tools galore, which is what the Marlins are after.

[fish16]

Gut feelings on Realmuto's destination. I like a number of possibilities, but AZ rises to the top because they don't seem to mind trading prospects. Chisholm and Varsho will become Marlins, esp. since Marlins brass is seeing them play for Salt River Rafters every day. Varsho is a young Realmuto clone and Chisholm can be a great SS. Tools galore, which is what the Marlins are after.

that would be a horrendous trade.

[Lee Stone]

that would be a horrendous trade.

What trade is that? I mentioned two very nice prospects that I'd like to see included in a trade. Read up on them before you react.

[fish16]

What trade is that? I mentioned two very nice prospects that I'd like to see included in a trade. Read up on them before you react.

i have, again you are not good at determining value. They are good prospects, they arent worth a centerpiece in a JT trade. no one in arizonas system is.

- - - - - - - - - -

Back to my suggestion of mccutchen- he wont settle for a 1 year deal id assume. I thought his numbers had dropped off more than they actually have but he should still be able to find at least a 2 year deal.

[lou]

Gut feelings on Realmuto's destination. I like a number of possibilities, but AZ rises to the top because they don't seem to mind trading prospects. Chisholm and Varsho will become Marlins, esp. since Marlins brass is seeing them play for Salt River Rafters every day. Varsho is a young Realmuto clone and Chisholm can be a great SS. Tools galore, which is what the Marlins are after.

Problem with the Diamondbacks is you're trading for bulk versus a truly elite prospect. We're all looking for them to get young studs besides building out the depth. This team needs young stars at some point. That being said,

1. You have to get Duplantier, he might be real good if he stays healthy. Ideally, he is the second guy in a deal rather than the first. We can be generous and call him a FV55 (FG thinks FV50). 2. Varsho seems like a solid second player and has moved into FV50 territory. 3. Chisholm had a nice batting average, but looks like there are some major K concerns and some think he pushes off SS eventually. Seems like a good solid third player and a solid FV45 type, maybe a little more (FG has FV45+).

That alone only gets you to around $55 million in value (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/valu...100-prospects/). Realmuto is worth around $70-80 minimum. More if you value that an acquiring team can extend him. You need two more guys minimum.

4. I would think Andy Yerzy (their second best C prospect) makes sense as he has some upside and double down at that position. The Marlins would be in pretty good shape with Varsho, Banfield, and Yerzy, and really hitting the wire hard for backup types and maybe drafting another one 2/3 round picks next year. 5. Then you're looking for outside their top 20 RP arms you like. Ideally lefties, but who cares at this point. Someone like Jared Miller.

I'd then up the deal and send them over Straily, and ask for 6. Socrates Brito back, who isn't making their team, out of options, and is a perfect flyer type guy the Marlins can try out in the OF as he has performed well in AAA.

Realmuto, Straily
Duplantier, Varsho, Chisholm, Yerzy, Ja. Miller, Brito

A lot harder to do these bulk deals versus getting 3 guys with 1 of them being an elite prospect, but that's how I envision a Diamondbacks deal going.

- - - - - - - - - -

Dbacks have Goldschimidt, Avila, and Dyson, for 1 year, and Ray, Peralta, Lamb, Walker, Souza, and Ahmed for 2.

They do need to go for it next 2 years and then recalibrate. Realmuto is a good win now and later (extension) move for them.

[fish16]

They just dont have the top level high end prospects to get the deal done for me and i dont really even like the pieces all that much in another depth deal. Ideally we stick to Houston, Washington, or Atlanta and the more i think about it the more im praying we deal with atlanta. One of wright/anderson, Riley, and contrras for JT and maybe DD if they have a need for him somewhere.

[Lee Stone]

Here you go: https://www.fantraxhq.com/arizona-fa...ew-salt-river/
Highlights: Most scouts see Chisholm as D-back top prospect - loaded up with tools. Same enthusiasm with Varsho. Widener looks like a better pitching prospect than Duplantier (to me). Instead of looking at a player's current prospect rating, I think it's more important to consider where that rating is headed. I see 55 for both Chisholm and Varsho when the 2019 list comes out, which would make them the Marlins top two prospects. Of note: that report came out before the start of the fall league - it would be even more enthusiastic now.

[lou]

Here you go: https://www.fantraxhq.com/arizona-fa...ew-salt-river/
Highlights: Most scouts see Chisholm as D-back top prospect - loaded up with tools. Same enthusiasm with Varsho. Widener looks like a better pitching prospect than Duplantier (to me). Instead of looking at a player's current prospect rating, I think it's more important to consider where that rating is headed. I see 55 for both Chisholm and Varsho when the 2019 list comes out, which would make them the Marlins top two prospects. Of note: that report came out before the start of the fall league - it would be even more enthusiastic now.

They actually have updated lists already - https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/ar...pects-updated/. I don't see meteoric rises for either of them. Chisholm also registered below your 1:4 BB/K rate scale. Remember, because no player can ever succeed if they do that at any level. Why the love now? Were you wrong then or now?

- - - - - - - - - -

They just dont have the top level high end prospects to get the deal done for me and i dont really even like the pieces all that much in another depth deal. Ideally we stick to Houston, Washington, or Atlanta and the more i think about it the more im praying we deal with atlanta. One of wright/anderson, Riley, and contrras for JT and maybe DD if they have a need for him somewhere.

Yep. It's not the best situation, but you can piece together something with Arizona that won't kill you.

I still think Tampa and Oakland are the best matchups.

[Lee Stone]

They actually have updated lists already - https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/ar...pects-updated/. I don't see meteoric rises for either of them. Chisholm also registered below your 1:4 BB/K rate scale. Remember, because no player can ever succeed if they do that at any level. Why the love now? Were you wrong then or now?

- - - - - - - - - -



Yep. It's not the best situation, but you can piece together something with Arizona that won't kill you.

I still think Tampa and Oakland are the best matchups.

I like to create rules-of-thumb to gauge prospects. A favorable w/k ratio is one of them for both hitters and pitchers. You like to find the rare exceptions. All good. Chisholm's power display as a youngster in A+ ball, at SS no less, impresses me.

[lou]

I like to create rules-of-thumb to gauge prospects. A favorable w/k ratio is one of them for both hitters and pitchers. You like to find the rare exceptions. All good. Chisholm's power display as a youngster in A+ ball, at SS no less, impresses me.

Sounds good. Looking forward to commentary as why believing professionals in the scouting community, who are routinely plucked for front office jobs, is a rare exception.