2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[Lee Stone]

I lack the optimism on Jesus Sanchez. Over 163 plate appearances this winter (DWL) and spring, versus relatively weak pitching, he has homered exactly once.

[lou]

It's really not worth talking about anymore, we are less than a week to opening day, we will find out soon enough. All im saying is that every single guy you mentioned was either a very high draft pick or absolutely mashed in the minors. DLC was not a highly touted prospect and had literally 6 years of mediocre to decent minor league numbers. guys like that very rarely become impactful major leaguers. i hope he does though, im not rooting against the guy, i just dont think he is anything to write home about.

You talk about his numbers on baseball savant, and really all they say is that he hits the ball hard and as a result his expected numbers should be higher. But you dont talk about the fact that he k's a ton and doesnt walk and chases a ton of pitches, and that's the reason his numbers are mediocre and why he was terrible for all but 2 weeks last year. He might just be a guy who hits the ball hard when he makes contact and has good raw power and no plate discipline. Which is not a terrible guy to have around, but i think when they talk about his peripherals the marlins and you just ignore that he has horrendous plate discipline. It's literally just that when he makes contact he hits the ball hard. That's really about it.

Jose Bautista was a 20th round draft pick. J.D. Martinez was a 20th round draft pick. Daniel Murphy 13th round. Total world beaters.

I think you confusing the difference between (1) whether a player is good or not versus (2) whether a player might be good and are worth investing time into. DLC and Sanchez clearly fall into the second bucket and they are each worth 300 PA before the all star break IMO to see what happens. I am well aware they are not perfect players - you might remember prior to DLC coming back with the new swing and approach I was public enemy # 1 about him - but when the peripherals scream this underachievement combined with upside, you make those bets every time and you will win more than you lose. Both of them can easily become a Teoscar Hernandez, Hunter Renfroe, Randal Grichuk, or Austin Hays type hitter very quickly, but yea of course each can also become Franchy Cordero and nothing. Let's find out is all I have ever said here about DLC (and Sanchez).

Which gets into the larger topic - the Marlins may be right to have not really gone for it with Reynolds. These guys might be pretty good. Of course the SS issue they have no defense of, but I tend to think we might get a "Renfroe and Grichuk" out of those two and frankly, Renfroe is a 2 WAR player per 600 PA and Grichuk a 1.8 WAR player per 600 PA, and if that is your 3rd and 4th OF with 5 years of control, that is really good for the prices. Joc is a 2.3 WAR per 600 PA guy for his career, so I do think that comparable is the upper range of where either could land if things go right. Joc is making $19m this year BTW. Sanchez and DLC if they work out as 2 WAR non-star but acceptable starter/platoon guys, might make $19m for the next 4 seasons combined. I want to find out what they have cooking here. Even one of them working out would be legitimately great for this franchise so they can really focus on the problem - SS.

[Nick]

Jose Bautista was a 20th round draft pick. J.D. Martinez was a 20th round draft pick. Daniel Murphy 13th round. Total world beaters.

I think you confusing the difference between (1) whether a player is good or not versus (2) whether a player might be good and are worth investing time into. DLC and Sanchez clearly fall into the second bucket and they are each worth 300 PA before the all star break IMO to see what happens. I am well aware they are not perfect players - you might remember prior to DLC coming back with the new swing and approach I was public enemy # 1 about him - but when the peripherals scream this underachievement combined with upside, you make those bets every time and you will win more than you lose. Both of them can easily become a Teoscar Hernandez, Hunter Renfroe, Randal Grichuk, or Austin Hays type hitter very quickly, but yea of course each can also become Franchy Cordero and nothing. Let's find out is all I have ever said here about DLC (and Sanchez).

Which gets into the larger topic - the Marlins may be right to have not really gone for it with Reynolds. These guys might be pretty good. Of course the SS issue they have no defense of, but I tend to think we might get a "Renfroe and Grichuk" out of those two and frankly, Renfroe is a 2 WAR player per 600 PA and Grichuk a 1.8 WAR player per 600 PA, and if that is your 3rd and 4th OF with 5 years of control, that is really good for the prices. Joc is a 2.3 WAR per 600 PA guy for his career, so I do think that comparable is the upper range of where either could land if things go right. Joc is making $19m this year BTW. Sanchez and DLC if they work out as 2 WAR non-star but acceptable starter/platoon guys, might make $19m for the next 4 seasons combined. I want to find out what they have cooking here. Even one of them working out would be legitimately great for this franchise so they can really focus on the problem - SS.

The problem is we had 5 years for the "let's see if this guy works out" stage and we have very little to show for it when it comes to the bats we tried to "see if they worked out" So you can understand our want for the ownership to invest in a sure thing.

[lou]

The problem is we had 5 years for the "let's see if this guy works out" stage and we have very little to show for it when it comes to the bats we tried to "see if they worked out" So you can understand our want for the ownership to invest in a sure thing.

Absolutely, I'm just saying - that investment was SS (or Nimmo and keeping Jazz in the IF). Reynolds would be a fun acquisition, especially with Bednar. But there is a larger than small chance DLC and/or Sanchez do well which would have made the Reynolds acquisition not as good on paper. So I'm just musing here, they may end up being right on not selling the house for Reynolds, even if at the same time, they are insanely holy god what are they thinking wrong about not going for Correa, Xander, Turner, Swanson, or Nimmo. Or Rodon and then trading Luzardo/Rogers, etc. The "Werth" commitment has not been made yet and rinse/repeat - the problem is Bruce.

[lou]

And RF rankings - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-pos...s-right-field/

TLDR - Garcia probably still sucks, but there is some hope he, DLC, or Sanchez are good. They give sanchez a better slash line (.739 OPS).

Summary
Great - 2B
Above Average, with upside to move up or down - CF
Average - C, 3B
Below Average, with real upside hope - LF
Below Average - 1B, SS
Borderline Disaster, but some hope to just be below average - RF

[fish16]

Keston hiura is out of options and was told he’s not making the team. That’s a guy they should be going after via trade immediately

[Nick]

Keston hiura is out of options and was told he’s not making the team. That’s a guy they should be going after via trade immediately

He'd be better than Gurriel.

[fish16]

He'd be better than Gurriel.

Issue is hiura has similar reverse splits like dlc. Sucks against lefties for his career but mashes righties. He’s a decent player all around though. He’s an upgrade for the roster

[Nick]

Sandy pitched a perfect 3 innings and struck out 8. Shouldn’t he be going deeper in the game at this point in the spring though?

[fish16]

Sandy pitched a perfect 3 innings and struck out 8. Shouldn’t he be going deeper in the game at this point in the spring though?

Astros didn’t start a single player I’ve ever heard of before. That was a minor league tuneup for Sandy’s opening day start Thursday. It’s regular season time boys

[Lee Stone]

Jazz age 21 AA season: .220 BA and .321 OBP and .761 OPS
Nasim age 21 AA season .261 and .371 OBP and .673 OPS

I believe that Nunez extreme speed, athleticism, defense, etc. will allow him to be a very productive major leaguer.

[fish16]

Jazz age 21 AA season: .220 BA and .321 OBP and .761 OPS
Nasim age 21 AA season .261 and .371 OBP and .673 OPS

I believe that Nunez extreme speed, athleticism, defense, etc. will allow him to be a very productive major leaguer.

How many AB’s was that for Nunez vs jazz? Seems like you’re leaving that out for a reason? Those are also not very comparable numbers

[fish16]

At the game today. Cabrera looks unbelievable. Also saw a tigers scout here. They probably
have guys at every game but maybe worth keeping an eye on.

[fish16]

In my opinion, it’s going to be gurriel as the last spot. Berti can play that ss role instead of iglesias.

[fish16]

Goodness Garcia and soler look terrible. Non competitive at bats