2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

That's an enormous return for Varsho. We stood no chance at getting him. Moreno and Guerriel are 2 of the pieces in the deal. Not sure if there is more.

[Nick]

Holy crap, that trade F's us.

[lou]

Holy crap, that trade F's us.

Sure does. This off-season is a train wreck. Im impressed they’ve managed to lower the bar.

They better figure out how to explain this to Sandy or good ole Lee may get his wish.

[Lee Stone]

Personally, I don't feel bad about any of the free agent misses - with the possible exception of Drury, who would have been an improvement over Anderson at 3B, I really liked Varsho on the trade market, but nothing short of a blockbuster involving Alcantara would have gotten that done. I don't think anything will happen on the trade market until well into spring training and teams start losing starting pitchers to injury.

Who doesn't love some Sandy trade speculation? Here's an article with four proposals, all of which are WAY to light. Sandy Alcantara rumors: 4 monster trade packages for the Marlins ace (fansided.com)

[rmc523]

Mish is teasing some sort of potential signing and/or trade soon.


1) I like Mish, as it's nice to have SOMEONE covering this team, but

2) after his last few.....swings and Mishes....it's hard to get excited about him teasing (potential) coming signings/trades.

3) What FAs of interest to us are left? I guess there's the pitching variety that could allow us to make trades, but this FO has shown no inclination to be creative.

[fish16]

Mish is teasing some sort of potential signing and/or trade soon.


1) I like Mish, as it's nice to have SOMEONE covering this team, but

2) after his last few.....swings and Mishes....it's hard to get excited about him teasing (potential) coming signings/trades.

3) What FAs of interest to us are left? I guess there's the pitching variety that could allow us to make trades, but this FO has shown no inclination to be creative.

id guess cueto which would then be the precursor to a likely pablo or rogers trade. I dont even know who else would be exciting in free agency.

[fish16]

Nick neidert signed with the cubs. The way the marlins have handled the 40 man roster has been super strange. Guys with potential like him and the lefty relievers they brought on towards the end of the year get DFA'd but then they were super hesitant to DFA some of the back end of the roster guys with 0 long term potential. It's nothing that is going to make or break the long term future of the team, but it felt like neidert is a guy you prioritize keeping around as a back end of the rotation or long reliever option.

[Namaste]

Nick neidert signed with the cubs. The way the marlins have handled the 40 man roster has been super strange. Guys with potential like him and the lefty relievers they brought on towards the end of the year get DFA'd but then they were super hesitant to DFA some of the back end of the roster guys with 0 long term potential. It's nothing that is going to make or break the long term future of the team, but it felt like neidert is a guy you prioritize keeping around as a back end of the rotation or long reliever option.

The train is coming off of the tracks. “MARLINS 2023: COME OUT TO THE PARK AND WATCH THE DERAILMENT”

[rmc523]

The Braves extended Sean Murphy for 6/73.

Must be nice to root for a team that trades for good players and extends them immediately.

[fish16]

The Braves extended Sean Murphy for 6/73.

Must be nice to root for a team that trades for good players and extends them immediately.

Not only extends them, but does it early for all of their homegrown players too so their payroll is not that high but they have some of the most talent in the league. Olson wont ever get more than 22 million. Acuna never more than 17 million, Riley never more than 22 million, Albies somehow never more than 7 million, Harris never more than 12 million for the next 8 years plus 2 club options of 15 and 20 million, Murphy never more than 15 million. It's absolutely nuts. Strider never more than 22 million plus he's just a combined 6 million the next 3 years. Craziness.

[rmc523]

Not only extends them, but does it early for all of their homegrown players too so their payroll is not that high but they have some of the most talent in the league. Olson wont ever get more than 22 million. Acuna never more than 17 million, Riley never more than 22 million, Albies somehow never more than 7 million, Harris never more than 12 million for the next 8 years plus 2 club options of 15 and 20 million, Murphy never more than 15 million. It's absolutely nuts. Strider never more than 22 million plus he's just a combined 6 million the next 3 years. Craziness.

I'd also think at this point there has to be a level of "I'll take a bit less because of what's around me".....players know Atlanta wants to win and will put guys around them to make the overall team better, vs. us where they're basically going to wind up being the only guy there.

[dgriot]

I'd also think at this point there has to be a level of "I'll take a bit less because of what's around me".....players know Atlanta wants to win and will put guys around them to make the overall team better, vs. us where they're basically going to wind up being the only guy there.

I wonder how much taking less salary to be a key part of a winning core is offset by other opportunities…Higher profile commercials and sponsorships, more lucrative talking head gigs post-retirement, etc.

[lou]

Not only extends them, but does it early for all of their homegrown players too so their payroll is not that high but they have some of the most talent in the league. Olson wont ever get more than 22 million. Acuna never more than 17 million, Riley never more than 22 million, Albies somehow never more than 7 million, Harris never more than 12 million for the next 8 years plus 2 club options of 15 and 20 million, Murphy never more than 15 million. It's absolutely nuts. Strider never more than 22 million plus he's just a combined 6 million the next 3 years. Craziness.

Albies negotiated his deal without an agent and was panned by the entire industry as Braves exploiting a kid who grew up poor, but Ozzie was happy as obviously guaranteeing $35m is forever life changing for multiple generations, if not forever. Braves really were assholes to him as he could have gotten double if not more. For the Braves, this is one of the best MLB extension contracts, if not the best (Jose Ramirez initial deal, maybe even Yelich's initial deal, etc.), of the last two decades.

Strider is also one of the worst deals in MLB IMO. He's being paid more than Sandy (who was the most expensive SP at the time of his contract). In no world is Strider worth more than him. They radically overpaid so they could front load luxury tax on the next few years. It's an enormous risk for a player his service time (and 2 pitches), but it telegraphs their vision of "going for it" and trying to game the luxury system for the next 6-8 years. So, practically it works for the Braves as they are going for broke and "its just money," but in the grand scheme of things, a terrible contract and they paid out the butt for hypothetical luxury relief in 4-6 years. Flags fly forever though.

Acuna, Olson, Riley, Harris, and Murphy are all very good if not great, ignoring just that the last year or two on Olson/Riley might be really scary but that's what you have to do to win.

Overall, the Braves get an A with these extensions which is frustrating for us.

[lou]

I'd also think at this point there has to be a level of "I'll take a bit less because of what's around me".....players know Atlanta wants to win and will put guys around them to make the overall team better, vs. us where they're basically going to wind up being the only guy there.

The Braves guys haven't given any hometown discounts though (if anyone Albies, but that's an exploitation scenario not a hometown discount).

I'm sure if they want Cueto for $6, and Marlins offer $8m, that would be a clear BRAVES scenario for Cueto as he has made some bucks already so $2m is negligible for him and that money isn't worth glory. Basically, I don't see this as a large divide beyond the veteran, already have fuck you money, ring chasers.

[lou]

3) What FAs of interest to us are left? I guess there's the pitching variety that could allow us to make trades, but this FO has shown no inclination to be creative.

If we want to plot a real contender for 2023, I think we're limited to two scenarios at this stage. Also I am IGNORING Bruce budget constraints, but this is what they'd need IMO to get to a projected 45+ WAR team which is effectively 6th-8th in the NL aligned with Phillies/Brewers.


1 - Trade the fucking house for Tatis (Eury, Pablo, Salas, Meyer/Eder, one of the LFers, and current bullpen member). Then do some subsidiary moves (move Wendle to Boston for prospects, trade for M. Taylor for CF so make it a wash), sigh Longoria, and sign someone like Cueto/Wacha. Bank on SD being out on him and devoting longterm payroll to Machado/Soto, and see if an overwhelming pitching package and your best non-Berry hitting prospect can do it. This is a terrifying move and yes unlikely as hell, but if Tatis is "fine," and combined with some ordinary dudes like Taylor/Longoria/Cueto to stopgap some production, you can sell me this is a contending team as 2019-2021 Tatis was that good. This team is probably another player away, but maybe sign both Cueto/Wacha and trade another SP for an OF upgrade (Laureano-Garrett, etc.). This is a $105-110m team, or $115-120m team if they did sign both SP and traded for another upgrade).


2 - And the more realistic (emphasis for comedy) scenario, is trade the house for Reynolds/Bednar/Brubaker (Rogers/Luzardo, Meyer, Salas, J. Miller, Burdick, McCambley sort of thing), swap Wendle/M. Taylor again and use Boston as a conduit, load up Cleveland with Garrett and DLC for Rosario and prospects, send Pablo/Scott to Minnesota for Arraez/prospects. Also sign Longoria, Cueto, and Wacha here to bridge to next year. If Luzardo is the one traded (as he has payroll above minimum).... This is a $115-120m team

Fortes, Stallings
Cooper (Longoria)
Jazz (Rojas/Arraez)
Rosario, Rojas
Arraez, Longoria
B. Reynolds, J. Sanchez
M. Taylor (Reynolds/Sanchez vs RHP half the time)
Garcia
Soler

Sandy, Rogers, Brubaker, Cueto, Cabrea (and Eury, Eder, Fulton, and Sixto are still here)
Bednar, Floro, Chargois, Enright, Wacha (6th SP/longman)
Bleier, Okert, Castano/Nardi/Simpson

It's expensive and boy did you trade 4 of the organizations top 8-9 SP doing this, but there are now solutions longterm at 2B (Jazz, I'd wait a year to extend but you have him for 4), SS (Rosario 5/$75 extension sort of thing), primarily 3B/everywhere (Arraez 5/$55 extension sort of thing + Groshans), and LF (Reynolds 7/$120m sort of thing, and yes this comps out well to this based on Nimmo and Reynolds service time, includes 2023), and optimistically have one of 1B/DH figured out quickly in a year or two with Berry, one corner OF spot with Garcia/Sanchez/Bleday/Jerar who are still around, catcher with Fortes hopefully good enough, and we get back to the biggest issue CF and just fucking deal with is later as no one is available as you didn't trade for a guy from Arizona. If everything goes perfect, they might even have another SP to trade.

So yea is Bruce spending $115-120m even if a ton of that roster peels off budget next year (Cooper, Rojas, Longoria, Taylor, maybe Soler opt out, Cueto, Bleier, and could non-tender Floro and/or Stallings, etc.). I don't think that asshole will spend this much and be a bottom 20 payroll team for a top 10-12 team projection with massive upside. But the point is, it will take this level of "holy shit" cohesive moves to get this team into a *maybe* contender if they can beat the Phillies/Brewers. This is asking for A LOT at this stage of the offseason IMO, but maybe they did have to wait to this point for teams to get desperate as FA is pretty thin.


3 - I know I said 2 options, but option 3 is also a path to contending but its not for this year and is the "kick the can" to 2024. Its trade Pablo for prospects really whenever, ideally a longterm SS/CF, do *nothing* but sign cheap 1 year veterans this offseason, trade everyone with less than 3 years of service time at the deadline this year besides Scott, and we do this dance again next offseason, with this pitching staff penciled in and likely a better farm.

Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Rogers, Eury
Meyer, Sixto, Bender, Chargois, Enright/Nance/Soriano/whoever
Scott, Okert, Eder

That might be extremely exciting if the prospect arms work out, so would Bruce then sign Machado? Devers gets to free agency? Pablo got a bat, they *really* sign another with one of those 2, and then can sprinkle about a stop-gap 1B to get to Berry in a year, maybe another LF/DH type if all the guys fail and/or Soler opts out? Salas/Cappe/Watson all still around so would they for the love of god trade one of them as a top 100 prospect and get some more help?


I'm expecting # 3 here at this point and they are biding their time until Eury is really ready, Meyer is healthy, Eder has gotten feet wet, etc. It's frustrating, but only really Pablo is going to be a "loss" on this team the next 2 years and they can keep running this back to maybe create a window one of Jazzes last few years. Basically, they'll eventually hit on everything one year and then quickly tear it down again because this organization has no hope or vision.