2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

Stallings picked up right where he left off last year thus far this spring. He fucking blows. I can’t stand defensive first catchers who have no hitting ability. He is completely unplayable

[Namaste]

Lewis Brinson was amazing in Spring Training

Can we wait until Stallings is 1H Stallings in the regular season before we lose our minds? Caring about Spring Training results is wild.

[Lee Stone]

To me, situation looks worse by the day. Marlins pitchers aren't exactly getting knocked around by Major Leaguers every day. They are facing scrubs from the competition most every time out.

It's an ugly situation at Roger Dean. The truth of the matter is that the Marlins couldn't trade their opening day lineup for the Cardinals bench.

[lou]

To me, situation looks worse by the day. Marlins pitchers aren't exactly getting knocked around by Major Leaguers every day. They are facing scrubs from the competition most every time out.

It's an ugly situation at Roger Dean. The truth of the matter is that the Marlins couldn't trade their opening day lineup for the Cardinals bench.

Libertore over Garrett is probably the only Cardinals pitcher (entire organization) I would take over the Marlins top 7 SP (+ Eury and Eder, ignoring Cueto).

But yea, the Marlins need 2 bats for sure.

[Nick]

If Cabrera stays healthy he’s going to be a fucking monster this year.

[fish16]

If Cabrera stays healthy he’s going to be a fucking monster this year.

Just came here to say this exactly. He and eury each look like sandy at different stages of development. Cabrera has such ridiculous velocity on all of his pitches and allows such little exit velocity. He’s going to be a star

[Nick]

Victor Mesa Jr. Walkoff HR.

[fish16]

not that this should come as any surprise to fans of this team, but the starting pitching is looking really fucking good heading into the year. Sandy is sandy, but luzardo has been great, cabrera has been great, rogers had a single bad inning that makes his stats look wonky but he has been great as well in spring and looks like he is in 2021 form. If cueto can be what we expected, we will be one of the best rotations in baseball. The one bad sign so far is braxton garrett has been consistently terrible in spring, but it is spring so who knows if any of this means anything when the regular season starts.

we're clearly a star bat short, but if soler and garcia can truly bounce back and be the steady middle of the order power bats we expected, we should be in contention late into the year, or at the very least around .500.

Arraez looked tremendous in the WBC so excited to see the dynamic he brings to the team. Jazz has been pretty bad in center but the bat has been as expected, so hopefully he gets more comfortable as the year goes on. Sanchez has been good in spring, though he's still striking out to much so maybe there is a regular season regression expected there. Cooper also is having a nice spring. We just could desperately use a star SS, which again as we all know is a stupid missed opportunity this offseason. This team with Correa or Turner is a contender easily. Just stupid cheapness.

[lou]

not that this should come as any surprise to fans of this team, but the starting pitching is looking really fucking good heading into the year. Sandy is sandy, but luzardo has been great, cabrera has been great, rogers had a single bad inning that makes his stats look wonky but he has been great as well in spring and looks like he is in 2021 form. If cueto can be what we expected, we will be one of the best rotations in baseball. The one bad sign so far is braxton garrett has been consistently terrible in spring, but it is spring so who knows if any of this means anything when the regular season starts.

we're clearly a star bat short, but if soler and garcia can truly bounce back and be the steady middle of the order power bats we expected, we should be in contention late into the year, or at the very least around .500.

Arraez looked tremendous in the WBC so excited to see the dynamic he brings to the team. Jazz has been pretty bad in center but the bat has been as expected, so hopefully he gets more comfortable as the year goes on. Sanchez has been good in spring, though he's still striking out to much so maybe there is a regular season regression expected there. Cooper also is having a nice spring. We just could desperately use a star SS, which again as we all know is a stupid missed opportunity this offseason. This team with Correa or Turner is a contender easily. Just stupid cheapness.

Just want to kindly mention, I got a lot of shit about this. But we got there!

As for Arraez, my hope is he goes all Dan Murphy 2011, Jose Altuve (2014/2015). Basically the age 25/26 year slugging jump. Call it 14 HR / 50 2B/3B. That would make him a ..... .320/.375/.475+ hitter very quickly. It's what I mentioned about taking bets on guys like Rosario. before Same thing with Arraez - super contact rates and as hitters mature they take more chances for all or nothing swings knowing they can fight off pitches later in the count. It's experience (plus launch angle improvements for some which was Murphy's real eureka moment later in his career). Arraez is a great candidate to project 20 more XBH is what I'm saying. He can just hit a few more ropes and not really impact anything early in the count. That aggression is his next natural step and I see piles of doubles coming as he gets more confident as a 26 year old knowing he can fight off everything. Maybe it never happens and he is who he is (which is still real good), but he hit some shots in the WBC and 375 foot HR count as much as 425 ones. I firmly put Rosario and H. Kim in this Arraez bucket among the "what they should have done at SS" line of thought. Both those guys have some major major upside if it clicks and very safe floors with contact rates and for Kim, elite defense. Sigh.

[lou]

Fangraphs does not hate Stallings and Fortes (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-pos...kings-catcher/)

[fish16]

Fangraphs does not hate Stallings and Fortes (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-pos...kings-catcher/)

that is a lot significantly hanging on stallings being a really good defensive catcher, which he was not last year. Even in his 1 year as the best defensive catcher in baseball, it was still good enough for just a 2.5 WAR over a full year of starting. That's nice, but to be that good defensively and to only produce 2.5 WAR tells you how bad the bat is. Even the 2 years prior where he was good but not spectacular defensively, he was only good for 1.0 and 1.3 WAR, granted he was not a full time starter there. The bottom line for stallings is that unless he is the best defensive catcher in baseball again, he is flat out unplayable as a full time starter. He is that bad as a hitter. Fortes should be the full time starter, and it's not a hard decision. That is how bad stallings bat is.

Hopefully he bounces back with the bat and is merely really bad instead of flat out horrendous.

[lou]

that is a lot significantly hanging on stallings being a really good defensive catcher, which he was not last year. Even in his 1 year as the best defensive catcher in baseball, it was still good enough for just a 2.5 WAR over a full year of starting. That's nice, but to be that good defensively and to only produce 2.5 WAR tells you how bad the bat is. Even the 2 years prior where he was good but not spectacular defensively, he was only good for 1.0 and 1.3 WAR, granted he was not a full time starter there. The bottom line for stallings is that unless he is the best defensive catcher in baseball again, he is flat out unplayable as a full time starter. He is that bad as a hitter. Fortes should be the full time starter, and it's not a hard decision. That is how bad stallings bat is.

Hopefully he bounces back with the bat and is merely really bad instead of flat out horrendous.

They are going to be unspectacularly fine. Maybe Fortes (career .253 BABIP, elite swing speeds as noted in that Eno Sarris article posted during the offseason, 63rd percentile sprint speed) really levels out and hits .270/.340/.450 which frankly I can see happening given his career rate is .238/.310/.427 with that BABIP. His xBA/xOBP/xSLUG is also .253/.322/.422 which would be more than fine and a solid uptick in getting on base another few times. That'll make him a 100 game starter quickly and continue the progression of the Marlins pulling catchers out of nowhere (Barnes, Realmuto, Nola). I think they are in pretty good shape here with two good bets and I'm pretty happy Fortes is controlled right now for his age 26-31 seasons. There is some deceptive organizational depth here with Fortes, Mack, Hernandez, Banfield, and McIntosh. I keep having this feeling Banfield may be a welcome surprise with the drastically reduced 2022 whiff rate (effectively 32% in 2021 to 22% in 2022-at higher levels) and catchers develop slow (he's turned 23 in offseason). We'll see.

[lou]

Also spring training stats are relatively meaningless, but a quick offensive survey:

BB/K
Cooper 37 AB 1/12 < -- But he's hitting
Garcia 37 AB 1/15 < - He is doing nothing right
Jazz 36 AB 3/15 < -- But he's slugging
---
DLC 35 AB 1/10 < - Actually a good enough whiff rate (28%) for him and everything else a SSS
Sanchez 2/10 < - Same. But he's hitting a little
Soler 33 AB 4/7 < - Hitting a little, optimistic seeing the ball well
Berti 28 AB 7/10 < - Great, just get on base
Fortes 16 AB 5/1 < - Seeing the ball well

I'd say:

Encouraging Springs - Arraez + Segura (including WBC), Soler, Sanchez, Berti, Fortes

Fine/Whatever/Normal Tune ups - Cooper, Jazz, DLC, Stallings

Objectively Bad - Garcia (whiff rate is frightening even in SSS), Wendle (not above, but has been atrocious with a .313 OPS in 32 PA. No walks)



I'd like to think this suggests DLC, Sanchez, Soler, and Fortes may be showing they are going to be a bit better this year and everyone else will be status quo but we'll see. That won't be enough, but it'll be better. Frankly, if DLC and Sanchez look good who cares if Garcia is the 4th OF. As long as someone hits. Hopefully Berti can handle some major SS time this year as he may be a much larger offensive weapon than Wendle and worth whatever defensive downgrade.

[lou]

Fangraphs doesn't love Cooper (1.1 WAR 400 PA) and Gurriel (.4 WAR 200 PA) - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-pos...gs-first-base/

2B will be better tomorrow thankfully.

[Lee Stone]

I've never disliked Castano. He seems to be adding some velocity and variety. Much more worthy of a spot in the opening rotation than Cueto or B Garrett, especialy if spring training is viewed as an honest competition. He accomplished yesterday's feat against the same Cardinals lineup that has demolished fellow lefties Rogers and Garrett.