2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[lou]

My whole basis for being against dlc is that he was straight up horrific for an entire season and had a 10 day hot streak in meaningless games that brought his numbers up that don’t reflect his true production last year. He was horrific all year outside of meaningless September baseball.

also, again, when you say it’s what “they” said, you are again referring to an interview from schumaker from November. He had 1 throwaway line that said he expects dlc to get 500 at bats before they moved jazz to cf. as I showed you weeks ago, they have had like 1 guy in the last 4 years who has gotten that many at bats, and it was starlin Castro who played all 162 games.

I hope he all of a sudden became a monster hitter, but chances are he didn’t go from terrible all year last year to a great hitter based off a swing change. I would love for him to have become a great player, but he almost assuredly didn’t. He’s a very nice 4th outfielder.

you talk about embracing the redness while ignoring the fact that he strikes out a ton and doesn’t walk. He had a 25.5% k rate and 5.4% bb rate. Sure he hits the ball hard when he hits it. But he doesn’t hit it a lot and doesn’t walk at all

And you're ignoring every underlying analytic about him which is season/career not sample sized based. And that's ignoring that his career line is a fair .269/.318//430 (.333 BABIP which is fair for his hard hit rates/solid speed), 1.7 WAR in 574 PA. Which WAR is dragged down by mis-deploying him in CF.

And I disagree it is a throw-away line and the guy is going to play as there are at least 225 starts for him and J. Sanchez right now so both guys are going to eat

And I already showed you how many more guys got many more PA than you are trying to say, so that is misleading at best

And I have already told you there is a difference between what you and I think and what the organization is going to do, so you can keep saying he is horrible, don't believe the swing change, but the organization through their literal words disagrees with you

And about how hard he hits the ball, he hits the ball *the hardest in all of baseball accounting for sweet spot rates with his perfect launch angle. I repeat, the best rate in all of baseball.* The second best in Freddie Freeman BTW - https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-breakou...andidates-2023. 25% K rate is also not bad in modern baseball so you know. Relievers have changed the sport the last 5 years.


No one is saying DLC is going to be a monster, but chucking him aside for a RP because you want to play Burdick is a comedy sitcom laugh track moment. He's exactly the kind of guy you give a real - real - long look and see if the underlying stats rise to the top. He's a sell-low right now because some uptick may be coming based in all indications and as the king of poor franchises must be economic, sell-low isn't part of your brand so this makes no sense at all. You're on the Jesus Sanchez band wagon for his hard hit rates, and yet DLC has better ones and a better hitting profile. This is inconsistent and you can't have it both ways.


How about we just be happy that DLC, J. Sanchez, and Fortes have routinely come up this offseason as quiet guys with under rated/under valued hit tools and hope for the best instead of getting into whatever this anger is flowing out of you. These guys are fine and are not the problem with this team. All 3 of them are worthy of a lot of time to see what the Marlins have. I'm frankly optimistic on all of them and think the Marlins get their career lines out of all of them which is pretty good.

[fish16]

what do you think the organization is going to say when he will be on the opening day roster? That they dont believe in him? All im saying, is you've put all your weight behind underlying metrics that could be right, or you could be basing a ton off a narrative of a swing change for a guy who was flat out terrible for the vast majority of last year. His OPS on september 14th last year after almost the entire year in the big leagues was .609. From September 18th through September 28th,vs mostly the Cubs and Nats, 2 teams who were also terrible, he got 17 hits, 3 hr's, and 7 doubles. That's nearly 20% of his hits for an entire season, nearly 25% of his hr's for an entire season, and 35% of his doubles for the season in a 10 day stretch when they were not meaningful in any way.

I hope he's turned a corner and he's JD Martinez. Most likely, he had a meaningless hot streak for 10 days for a team completely out of contention and is just a mediocre 4th OF.

[Maddawg]

Is she just trying to play coy and fool everyone into thinking they'll do nothing, so when they do something it looks better?

Like how can you make those comments with a straight face?

She doesn't care, only how it sounds to Sherman. She knows that outside of him (and I'm not always sure he actually cares) there is basically NO ONE LISTENING. She is only in job preservation mode.

I think she only has one more year on her contract....who knows maybe all her strange moves are a way of getting fired and she then collect that last year while looking around for another job.....it's far fetched, but this is the Marlins after all...would it really surprise you??

[fish16]

She doesn't care, only how it sounds to Sherman. She knows that outside of him (and I'm not always sure he actually cares) there is basically NO ONE LISTENING. She is only in job preservation mode.

I think she only has one more year on her contract....who knows maybe all her strange moves are a way of getting fired and she then collect that last year while looking around for another job.....it's far fetched, but this is the Marlins after all...would it really surprise you??

Go away. You’re a sad person. You’re replying to a 6 month old post. Also, your stupid post of her trying to get fired in her last year under contract to get her money makes such little sense that you sound like such a complete moron

[Lee Stone]

A complete moron. Nice. Not a partial one. Not a little ditzy. Not logically challenged. Complete!

[Namaste]

A well rounded moron!

[fish16]

a moron through and through

[fish16]

does the revenue, or at least a portion of it, for the WBC at marlins park go to the marlins or MLB? Parking is $40 and tickets are pretty expensive depending on the game so that's a good amount of revenue going to someone.

[Lee Stone]

As a Miami Moron, my take on the state of the Fishy:

The first move of club offseason was to take the best player, Sandy Alcantara, and change his role from starter to closer because the team needed one. Wait, it was Jazz Chisholm who was converted from 2B to center field. Same sort of story. The team apparently grew weary of his flashy play in the infield, which would have played even bigger without the shift this season. 2B was the one position on the field that the Marlins didn't have to worry about ... until now.

So we start with 2B. Arraez reminds me of Martin Prado with even less defensive value. After hitting .305 with a few homers and 75 rbi in 2016, Prado was gifted with a three-year and $40M contract, subsequently giving the Marlins nothing for those years. So-so glove, no speed whatsoever, no power. Yep, Arraez will likely provide a decent on base percentage, but that's it. Pablo Lopez and the five-tool potential of Jose Salas were worth a helluva lot more than that. Overall, a major downgrade at 2B.

At 3B, Jean Segura. Here comes another Martin Prado comp. Prado hit .287 with a .335 OBP and .747 OPS for his career. Segura stands at .285 and .330 with a .739 OPS. He's sliding at this point of his career, just as Prado did. He will not be a plus at 3B in all likelihood.

Joey Wendle is reportedly the main player at SS. Son of a gun, his career numbers look like Martin Prado's as well. Problem is that those numbers took a dive last season. Can't be liking this at all.

We're looking at Garrett Prado (Cooper) at 1B too. Same MP numbers. We can't shake them. A team full of Prado's would probably be 1-9 at this point of spring training.

Prado actually played a handful of games in LF, but we can prettiy much leave him behind. We're looking at some sort of platoon from a group of youngish outfielders who have been poor performers to this point of their big league careers. Big problem.

Jesus Sanchez was actually a near average performer in CF last season, poisoned mostly by the eye test on a few reads. Jazz will be okay out there but shouldn't have been forced to worry about anything other than his offense.

I said we could leave Prado behind, but here comes Avisail Garcia. His career numbers are significantliy worse than Prado.

Catching is a huge problem in my fisheyes. The team shouldn't have let that position lie.

Starting pitching is okay, but Pablo will be missed. The real concern is the last four innings of each game, when the relievers come out. Can't see a bit of relief there.

It's going to be ugly ... as in 62-100 ugly.

[lou]

A complete moron. Nice. Not a partial one. Not a little ditzy. Not logically challenged. Complete!

Would it be more accurate to say a literal moron or figurative moron?

[lou]

As a Miami Moron, my take on the state of the Fishy:

The first move of club offseason was to take the best player, Sandy Alcantara, and change his role from starter to closer because the team needed one. Wait, it was Jazz Chisholm who was converted from 2B to center field. Same sort of story. The team apparently grew weary of his flashy play in the infield, which would have played even bigger without the shift this season. 2B was the one position on the field that the Marlins didn't have to worry about ... until now.

So we start with 2B. Arraez reminds me of Martin Prado with even less defensive value. After hitting .305 with a few homers and 75 rbi in 2016, Prado was gifted with a three-year and $40M contract, subsequently giving the Marlins nothing for those years. So-so glove, no speed whatsoever, no power. Yep, Arraez will likely provide a decent on base percentage, but that's it. Pablo Lopez and the five-tool potential of Jose Salas were worth a helluva lot more than that. Overall, a major downgrade at 2B.

At 3B, Jean Segura. Here comes another Martin Prado comp. Prado hit .287 with a .335 OBP and .747 OPS for his career. Segura stands at .285 and .330 with a .739 OPS. He's sliding at this point of his career, just as Prado did. He will not be a plus at 3B in all likelihood.

Joey Wendle is reportedly the main player at SS. Son of a gun, his career numbers look like Martin Prado's as well. Problem is that those numbers took a dive last season. Can't be liking this at all.

We're looking at Garrett Prado (Cooper) at 1B too. Same MP numbers. We can't shake them. A team full of Prado's would probably be 1-9 at this point of spring training.

Prado actually played a handful of games in LF, but we can prettiy much leave him behind. We're looking at some sort of platoon from a group of youngish outfielders who have been poor performers to this point of their big league careers. Big problem.

Jesus Sanchez was actually a near average performer in CF last season, poisoned mostly by the eye test on a few reads. Jazz will be okay out there but shouldn't have been forced to worry about anything other than his offense.

I said we could leave Prado behind, but here comes Avisail Garcia. His career numbers are significantliy worse than Prado.

Catching is a huge problem in my fisheyes. The team shouldn't have let that position lie.

Starting pitching is okay, but Pablo will be missed. The real concern is the last four innings of each game, when the relievers come out. Can't see a bit of relief there.

It's going to be ugly ... as in 62-100 ugly.

Oh man, I have thoughts.

-Arraez is a MUCH better hitter than Prado should be able to stick defensively at 2B enough. Underlying stats are OK. Yes Jazz is better at 2B, but viewing in the sum of all parts.... Jazz (CF), Arraez (2B), and Cooper (1B) likely outproduces Jazz (2B), Arraez (1B), and DLC/Sanchez (CF) (which further shifts to Soler to LF which is not great). I think you are thinking too hard here. This is not a major downgrade in any sense of the matter, and at worse, would be a wash with losing Pablo's innings. But that's OK as the replacement innings (Cabrera/Garrett/Cueto) should be pretty fine. I do agree they overpaid a little with Salas, but if they extend Arraez it starts tilting in the Marlins favor. I'm honestly not sure why they haven't done this yet even if Arraez is going to end up more as a 1B/DH/LF and 2B floater. This is not a concern

-Prado was very very good in 2015 and 2016 (6.3 WAR in 1200+ PA) before getting hurt and falling apart. He did spectacularly fall apart, but this didn't happen until he was 33. You're under selling him.

-Yes they need a SS very badly. 100%. More so than "Reynolds." It's malpractice to not have gotten one of the 4 big SS (or Nimmo, keeping Jazz at 2B, and using Pablo/other SP for a SS instead)

-Cooper is a fine back-end starter. They could do worse.

-Sanchez did grade fine in CF and would be a good # 2 CF if he could hit lefties. CF versus lefties is going to be an issue unless Jazz can fight them off enough and the defense plays. It's why they should have traded for Michael Taylor. However, if they want to bet on Jazz, that's where you start offensively in the organization. They can solve this is June/July if a true issue. I think the key thing with Sanchez is, will he hit right handed pitching and get that K rate to under 30%.

-Garcia should be better, but who knows

-I don't have issues with their catcher set-up at all. This includes minors depth which I think may be underrated.

-I don't have issues with Puk, Barnes, Floro, Scott, and Okert leading the bullpen and mix and matching behind them. There is some arm talent with Enright and others too. This should be OK and not a liability IMO, even if not great. It will be interesting to see if they convert Cabrera/Garrett to the pen, but I doubt it.

-What odds are you giving for +62 wins and where can I sign up. They are a high 70 wins team with .500 upside if they stay healthy IMO

[Nick]

I'm overall negative on what the team did in the offseason I think it's not nearly enough, but barring catastrophic injuries to like 3 of our top 5 starters, I don't see losing 100 games to be a possibility.

[rmc523]

what do you think the organization is going to say when he will be on the opening day roster? That they dont believe in him? All im saying, is you've put all your weight behind underlying metrics that could be right, or you could be basing a ton off a narrative of a swing change for a guy who was flat out terrible for the vast majority of last year. His OPS on september 14th last year after almost the entire year in the big leagues was .609. From September 18th through September 28th,vs mostly the Cubs and Nats, 2 teams who were also terrible, he got 17 hits, 3 hr's, and 7 doubles. That's nearly 20% of his hits for an entire season, nearly 25% of his hr's for an entire season, and 35% of his doubles for the season in a 10 day stretch when they were not meaningful in any way.

I hope he's turned a corner and he's JD Martinez. Most likely, he had a meaningless hot streak for 10 days for a team completely out of contention and is just a mediocre 4th OF.

What's the harm in giving him a shot?

Not like we're keeping Mike Trout out of the lineup to play DLC.

If he does well, great, if he stinks more, send him down/send him somewhere.

[rmc523]

I'm overall negative on what the team did in the offseason I think it's not nearly enough, but barring catastrophic injuries to like 3 of our top 5 starters, I don't see losing 100 games to be a possibility.

The same story as every year lol.

[Namaste]

As a Miami Moron, my take on the state of the Fishy:

The first move of club offseason was to take the best player, Sandy Alcantara, and change his role from starter to closer because the team needed one. Wait, it was Jazz Chisholm who was converted from 2B to center field. Same sort of story. The team apparently grew weary of his flashy play in the infield, which would have played even bigger without the shift this season. 2B was the one position on the field that the Marlins didn't have to worry about ... until now.

So we start with 2B. Arraez reminds me of Martin Prado with even less defensive value. After hitting .305 with a few homers and 75 rbi in 2016, Prado was gifted with a three-year and $40M contract, subsequently giving the Marlins nothing for those years. So-so glove, no speed whatsoever, no power. Yep, Arraez will likely provide a decent on base percentage, but that's it. Pablo Lopez and the five-tool potential of Jose Salas were worth a helluva lot more than that. Overall, a major downgrade at 2B.

At 3B, Jean Segura. Here comes another Martin Prado comp. Prado hit .287 with a .335 OBP and .747 OPS for his career. Segura stands at .285 and .330 with a .739 OPS. He's sliding at this point of his career, just as Prado did. He will not be a plus at 3B in all likelihood.

Joey Wendle is reportedly the main player at SS. Son of a gun, his career numbers look like Martin Prado's as well. Problem is that those numbers took a dive last season. Can't be liking this at all.

We're looking at Garrett Prado (Cooper) at 1B too. Same MP numbers. We can't shake them. A team full of Prado's would probably be 1-9 at this point of spring training.

Prado actually played a handful of games in LF, but we can prettiy much leave him behind. We're looking at some sort of platoon from a group of youngish outfielders who have been poor performers to this point of their big league careers. Big problem.

Jesus Sanchez was actually a near average performer in CF last season, poisoned mostly by the eye test on a few reads. Jazz will be okay out there but shouldn't have been forced to worry about anything other than his offense.

I said we could leave Prado behind, but here comes Avisail Garcia. His career numbers are significantliy worse than Prado.

Catching is a huge problem in my fisheyes. The team shouldn't have let that position lie.

Starting pitching is okay, but Pablo will be missed. The real concern is the last four innings of each game, when the relievers come out. Can't see a bit of relief there.

It's going to be ugly ... as in 62-100 ugly.

Lee, the LOWEST projected win total for the Marlins I can find at ANY sportsbook I can find is 74. I know you have a flair for the dramatic but I think you’re going over Niagara Falls with the poorest designed barrel.