2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[sports24/7]

It may not make a huge difference, and I have zero confidence in Kim Ng at this point to even get a deal together, but starting Pablo today was just such a dumb thing to do for so many reasons. I guess it's to be expected from an organization that's inept from top to bottom, though.

That being said, I'm not sure how anyone can look at this offense, injuries or not, and not think they should be trying to move Pablo for bats.

[fish16]

Just a flat out terrible team we are that happens to have one of the best pitchers in baseball. A ridiculously easy schedule for July goes wasted as they go 2 games under and end their season

[lou]

It may not make a huge difference, and I have zero confidence in Kim Ng at this point to even get a deal together, but starting Pablo today was just such a dumb thing to do for so many reasons. I guess it's to be expected from an organization that's inept from top to bottom, though.

That being said, I'm not sure how anyone can look at this offense, injuries or not, and not think they should be trying to move Pablo for bats.

Pablo is good so no harm keeping him - but if you get the deal for him, do it.


Like, this at $65m or so is very good. Let's trade all of Aguilar, Cooper, Berti, Rojas, Anderson, Bass, Floro, Okert, and Sulser.

MLB

Fortes, Stallings
Lewin
Jazz
_____, Wendle
_____, Williams
Bleday
_____, Sanchez
Garcia
Soler

Sandy, Pablo, Luzardo, Cabrera, Rogers/Garrett
_____, Bender, Pop, Poteet, Hernandez
Scott, Bleier, Rogers/Garrett


So the farm is this:

FV60 - Eury
FV55 - Meyer (Assuming 2024 health)
FV50 - Salas, Watson, Berry
FV45+/FV45 - Eder, Lewis, Cappe, Burdick, Fulton, Morisette, Two Deadline trade players
FV40+/FV40 - Sixto, Mack, Nunez, Miller, Millbrandt, R. Hernandez, A. Santos,.... and Six-Eight Deadline trade players
25+ legit prospects deep, not including the Nardi, Fishman, Soriano, and McCambley future RP of the world


Salas/Watson, Lewis/Burdick/Fulton/Morisette, and someone else must be sacrificed for a blank line bat. A big one. Likely a CF. Maybe you even dangle Eder or Meyer here in addition.

Let's assume one of those FV45 deadline players is another blank line which is fine. Likely the 3B as "Berry" is coming and Wendle can handle more of 3B.

Let's assume they go with a club controlled reliever (which they will). Whether this be via trade or whatever. This is fine for me. I know the pen is a sensitive subject.... but Bender, Poteet, and Rogers/Garrett could be really good, as well as Hernandez transitioning to a better role for him..... and Eury, Eder, and Sixto are coming to reassign roles for everyone. I trust their pitching. They will figure out the bullpen. They are just hurt right now.

and then go to $90m and sign Swanson or Nimmo. I think Swanson makes more sense here assuming he is Trevor Story or cheaper.


This really really works for the keep Pablo team. But, they will have to go to $90m and accept they have to trade Salas/Watson and effectively two more guys in their top 10 (and maybe more) to get presumably a longterm CF here.

A lot of youth in the lineup, but it could be explosive.

[Lee Stone]

Agree on all the veteran trades.

As mentioned before, Eder should be untouchable. I'd package guys to Minnesota for Royce Lewis ... so we have something to look forward to.
Disgusted by Berry draft pick. Wow. That's basically $6 million for another Tanner Allen.

Biggest and best move would be gutting entire front office and managerial staff.

[Namaste]

Marlins are in no mans land

Fangraphs has them ranked 17th in Team Quality.

[emkayseven]

Keith Law has Eury as the #9 prospect, up from 64

Perez has no business throwing strikes as easily as he does with the way he’s built and the way he pitches, and yet he does, all 6-foot-9 of him. Coming from a low slot that puts more life on his fastball, he’s up to 99 mph with a four-pitch mix that features a changeup that’s at least plus, maybe a 70, and a slider he just started throwing this year. The Marlins have been careful with his workload, so the 19-year-old hasn’t reached 90 pitches in any game, but so far he’s striking out over a third of opposing batters with just a 6 percent walk rate. He’s a No. 1 starter in the making.

[Namaste]

I think there is a 0.01% chance that the Yankees include Volpe in a Pablo trade

[lou]

I think there is a 0.01% chance that the Yankees include Volpe in a Pablo trade

I agree with this.

They just gotta spend some money, make some big trades, and hope those new guys plus Fortes/Stallings/Lewin/Bleday/Sanchez/Garica/Soler/Luzardo/Cabrera/Rogers/Garrett/Bender/Pop form a good team around Sandy and Jazz (maybe Pablo) next year.

They could be really good if they do it right. But if the idea is to trade for 3 "Jose Siri" and hope a miracle happens with the internal pitching all hitting their 90th percentile production all at once, next year is doomed already.

[sports24/7]

Pablo is good so no harm keeping him - but if you get the deal for him, do it.


Like, this at $65m or so is very good. Let's trade all of Aguilar, Cooper, Berti, Rojas, Anderson, Bass, Floro, Okert, and Sulser.

MLB

Fortes, Stallings
Lewin
Jazz
_____, Wendle
_____, Williams
Bleday
_____, Sanchez
Garcia
Soler

Sandy, Pablo, Luzardo, Cabrera, Rogers/Garrett
_____, Bender, Pop, Poteet, Hernandez
Scott, Bleier, Rogers/Garrett


So the farm is this:

FV60 - Eury
FV55 - Meyer (Assuming 2024 health)
FV50 - Salas, Watson, Berry
FV45+/FV45 - Eder, Lewis, Cappe, Burdick, Fulton, Morisette, Two Deadline trade players
FV40+/FV40 - Sixto, Mack, Nunez, Miller, Millbrandt, R. Hernandez, A. Santos,.... and Six-Eight Deadline trade players
25+ legit prospects deep, not including the Nardi, Fishman, Soriano, and McCambley future RP of the world


Salas/Watson, Lewis/Burdick/Fulton/Morisette, and someone else must be sacrificed for a blank line bat. A big one. Likely a CF. Maybe you even dangle Eder or Meyer here in addition.

Let's assume one of those FV45 deadline players is another blank line which is fine. Likely the 3B as "Berry" is coming and Wendle can handle more of 3B.

Let's assume they go with a club controlled reliever (which they will). Whether this be via trade or whatever. This is fine for me. I know the pen is a sensitive subject.... but Bender, Poteet, and Rogers/Garrett could be really good, as well as Hernandez transitioning to a better role for him..... and Eury, Eder, and Sixto are coming to reassign roles for everyone. I trust their pitching. They will figure out the bullpen. They are just hurt right now.

and then go to $90m and sign Swanson or Nimmo. I think Swanson makes more sense here assuming he is Trevor Story or cheaper.


This really really works for the keep Pablo team. But, they will have to go to $90m and accept they have to trade Salas/Watson and effectively two more guys in their top 10 (and maybe more) to get presumably a longterm CF here.

A lot of youth in the lineup, but it could be explosive.

I do think there's harm in keeping Pablo, honestly. If the Marlins aren't going to extend him (and there was a report that Pablo himself isn't all that interested in that), his value will never be this high, and if we're being honest, the Marlins aren't going to maximize his window over the next two years. And that's not even getting into the very real possibility that the next two years go back to injury-riddled seasons like a big chunk of his career prior to this season. A team like the Marlins absolutely cannot waste value, and not trading Pablo right now will almost certainly be doing that.

As for the overall plan you laid out, that would be great. But I have zero faith that the Marlins will go out and sign anyone like Swanson. Maybe a Nimmo, but even then it's a coin flip. Craig Mish was on a spaces the other night and flat out said any fans expecting the Marlins to buy a big ticket player are setting themselves up for failure. So what does that mean? That means hanging on to Pablo, losing value (probably significant value in the end), and probably trading him at the deadline before he hits FA. Maybe Kim Ng gets it together and makes a trade cobbling together the farm for a bat (although does anyone have any faith that she's capable of doing that, or that the package she gets is a win?), and probably spending some money on more Adam Duvall's, Corey Dickerson's, Avicail Garcia's, and Jorge Soler's. And in doing that, they probably waste a big chunk of Sandy's prime, and eventually trade him in another rebuild.

It's just so absolutely depressing to be a fan of this team. I'm not sure I've ever had less faith in them than I do now. The frustrating thing is when Ng was brought in they had some building blocks for a real rebuild, and she just flat out botched it. It's partly ownership's fault because they were never really going to spend the money, but she just either didn't really have a plan, had a really bad plan, or just isn't capable of executing the plan.

[fish16]

I do think there's harm in keeping Pablo, honestly. If the Marlins aren't going to extend him (and there was a report that Pablo himself isn't all that interested in that), his value will never be this high, and if we're being honest, the Marlins aren't going to maximize his window over the next two years. And that's not even getting into the very real possibility that the next two years go back to injury-riddled seasons like a big chunk of his career prior to this season. A team like the Marlins absolutely cannot waste value, and not trading Pablo right now will almost certainly be doing that.

As for the overall plan you laid out, that would be great. But I have zero faith that the Marlins will go out and sign anyone like Swanson. Maybe a Nimmo, but even then it's a coin flip. Craig Mish was on a spaces the other night and flat out said any fans expecting the Marlins to buy a big ticket player are setting themselves up for failure. So what does that mean? That means hanging on to Pablo, losing value (probably significant value in the end), and probably trading him at the deadline before he hits FA. Maybe Kim Ng gets it together and makes a trade cobbling together the farm for a bat (although does anyone have any faith that she's capable of doing that, or that the package she gets is a win?), and probably spending some money on more Adam Duvall's, Corey Dickerson's, Avicail Garcia's, and Jorge Soler's. And in doing that, they probably waste a big chunk of Sandy's prime, and eventually trade him in another rebuild.

It's just so absolutely depressing to be a fan of this team. I'm not sure I've ever had less faith in them than I do now. The frustrating thing is when Ng was brought in they had some building blocks for a real rebuild, and she just flat out botched it. It's partly ownership's fault because they were never really going to spend the money, but she just either didn't really have a plan, had a really bad plan, or just isn't capable of executing the plan.

exactly. We arent keeping him in 2 years, his value will never be higher, and we are desperate for young controllable bats. Plus he's an injury risk and if he gets injured again and we don't get anything for him, we get set back for another 2 years. You don't trade him for nothing obviously, but they need to get the best offer possible and deal him before tomorrow. there is no excuse not to trade him.

And agree with the FA part of your post. It is just such a waste of time to continue trotting out scenarios where we get a 20 million dollar + free agent. It's not happening. It's delusion and a waste of time of the highest order.

[lou]

I do think there's harm in keeping Pablo, honestly. If the Marlins aren't going to extend him (and there was a report that Pablo himself isn't all that interested in that), his value will never be this high, and if we're being honest, the Marlins aren't going to maximize his window over the next two years. And that's not even getting into the very real possibility that the next two years go back to injury-riddled seasons like a big chunk of his career prior to this season. A team like the Marlins absolutely cannot waste value, and not trading Pablo right now will almost certainly be doing that.

As for the overall plan you laid out, that would be great. But I have zero faith that the Marlins will go out and sign anyone like Swanson. Maybe a Nimmo, but even then it's a coin flip. Craig Mish was on a spaces the other night and flat out said any fans expecting the Marlins to buy a big ticket player are setting themselves up for failure. So what does that mean? That means hanging on to Pablo, losing value (probably significant value in the end), and probably trading him at the deadline before he hits FA. Maybe Kim Ng gets it together and makes a trade cobbling together the farm for a bat (although does anyone have any faith that she's capable of doing that, or that the package she gets is a win?), and probably spending some money on more Adam Duvall's, Corey Dickerson's, Avicail Garcia's, and Jorge Soler's. And in doing that, they probably waste a big chunk of Sandy's prime, and eventually trade him in another rebuild.

It's just so absolutely depressing to be a fan of this team. I'm not sure I've ever had less faith in them than I do now. The frustrating thing is when Ng was brought in they had some building blocks for a real rebuild, and she just flat out botched it. It's partly ownership's fault because they were never really going to spend the money, but she just either didn't really have a plan, had a really bad plan, or just isn't capable of executing the plan.

I feel $90m should be reasonable.

I'm with you 100% though if Bruce says $80m again and nothing longterm like a Swanson, Pablo does have to go to try and get many multiple FV55/50 play now bats and pray they all click like Jazz quickly. Then pray AGAIN the lefties (Luzardo, Rogers, Garrett, Eder) all work out pretty much and can collectively throw 500 innings and Eury is ready to go ASAP. Basically, hopes and prayers and circle 2024.

[lou]

Also that Hader deal is insane. If that's what RP costs holy smokes. Trade everyone.

[sports24/7]

I feel $90m should be reasonable.

I'm with you 100% though if Bruce says $80m again and nothing longterm like a Swanson, Pablo does have to go to try and get many multiple FV55/50 play now bats and pray they all click like Jazz quickly. Then pray AGAIN the lefties (Luzardo, Rogers, Garrett, Eder) all work out pretty much and can collectively throw 500 innings and Eury is ready to go ASAP. Basically, hopes and prayers and circle 2024.

Oh, it's completely reasonable, and Mish even suggested he thinks the plan is to be around 23-ish in spending. I just don't think there's anyone forward-thinking enough in the front office to understand that you can do that while also adding a premier FA to the roster. And doing things like signing Garcia and Soler to the deals they were signed to are evidence of that.

When it comes to a Pablo trade, I can understand not trading him if people just aren't giving you value, but it's so hard for me to believe that's the case. It's easy for me to believe Ng can't negotiate said offers, but the demand has to absolutely be there. And while I can also understand the notion that teams looking to add Pablo won't be itching to give up ML bats, I think I'm at the point that I'd take prospect hauls for Pablo, and then use those prospects to make moves for ready-made bats in the offseason, if those prospects won't be ready to contribute in 2023. I just think it's such a wasted opportunity to not take advantage of Pablo's current value. It's such a huge gamble to even wait until the offseason to move him.

[sports24/7]

Also that Hader deal is insane. If that's what RP costs holy smokes. Trade everyone.

The good new is, Bass will very likely be moved, and probably another BP arm or two. Can Ng net the kind of return savvy veteran GMs are doing? We'll have to see.

[lou]

Oh, it's completely reasonable, and Mish even suggested he thinks the plan is to be around 23-ish in spending. I just don't think there's anyone forward-thinking enough in the front office to understand that you can do that while also adding a premier FA to the roster. And doing things like signing Garcia and Soler to the deals they were signed to are evidence of that.

When it comes to a Pablo trade, I can understand not trading him if people just aren't giving you value, but it's so hard for me to believe that's the case. It's easy for me to believe Ng can't negotiate said offers, but the demand has to absolutely be there. And while I can also understand the notion that teams looking to add Pablo won't be itching to give up ML bats, I think I'm at the point that I'd take prospect hauls for Pablo, and then use those prospects to make moves for ready-made bats in the offseason, if those prospects won't be ready to contribute in 2023. I just think it's such a wasted opportunity to not take advantage of Pablo's current value. It's such a huge gamble to even wait until the offseason to move him.

The best deal for Pablo probably comes 90 minutes before the deadline after everyone has extinguished cheaper options. We can be annoyed for lack of movement, but it's like this every year.

My guess is, we get multiple moves that make sense on paper with 2-3 BIG moves still needed in the offseason. Which likely won't happen because (1) cheap and (2) front office knows they need a year for Eury/Eder/Sixto/Meyer/Cabrera/Berry/Bleday/new comers to get feet wet and/or healthy so why try and 2023. Make the hail mary team.

You know, endless cycle.