2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[lou]

A guy we dont talk about who is quietly having a pretty damn good year with better peripherals than standard numbers is dax fulton. still just 20 in A+, 77 IP, 4.56 ERA, but 101 k's, just 27 walks, and 3.15 FIP. Not sure if Beloit is just one of those places that are unfriendly for pitching or our defense sucks down there, but he has been pretty good. Was once the top high school pitcher in his draft class before he got hurt, the talent is clearly there.

Joe mack was also injured a lot this year but interesting numbers at the plate in the small sample. Still super young and a ways away but really impressive BB/K ratio, which to me is a huge indicator of future success at higher levels.

Jose Salas too probably has become the premier SS prospect in the franchise, which has a lot of guys including Cappe, Lewis, Watson, and Nunez. Nunez by the way has 47 steals in 81 games so far this year. An obvious 94 SB pace per 162 games. If that kid can find any semblance of on base percentage and develop even juan pierre type gap power, with his fielding tool and obvious speed, he;s super interesting.

Fulton is mentioned a lot as a 2nd/3rd piece in trades for a better player. He looks solid - funky delivery not overwhelming stuff so he is lower upside. Fangraphs doesn’t think more velocity is coming due to mechanics. Seems like a potential 4/5 or deception reliever. Which is a great pick and glad they have him. Hopefully he adds a few mph and explodes.

Salas has become, not probably. Though he and Cappe are probably 3B longterm when they fill out. Lewis is a 2B. Watson is who knows. Nunez is who I would say is the best surefire system SS…. Which is why they should get a good young SS and hope Nunez becomes the backup.

[Nick]

Apparently Charles Leblanc is getting called up.

[lou]

The more I think about it, the more I think they have to trade Pablo right now, even if they're going for it in 2023 (which I think they have to). Craig Mish reported that Miami hasn't even approached him about an extension, and that he thinks with Pablo this close to FA, Pablo probably wouldn't want to sign an extension anyway. So in order to "win" on the decision to keep Pablo, the following this would all have to happen:

1. He continues to pitch at the level we've seen this year.
2. He stays healthy (something he hasn't done until this year).
3. The team either goes out and spends money on at least two impact bats, or spends on one (and maybe another solid bat), and unloads the farm for another, and both bats live up to their cost in a short window.

What's the likelihood that all of that happens?

On the other hand, if you trade him now, you know you're selling high, and while it's no slam dunk that the return works out, you're dramatically increasing the odds that you improve your lineup, allowing you to only have to really spend big on one more bat in the offseason (or potentially even get that other bat by unloading your farm system). In this scenario, other than hoping the guys you brought in pay off, the biggest leap of faith you'd be taking is that you can fill out the rest of the rotation behind Sandy among a group consisting of Luzardo, Rogers, Sixto, Cabrera, Garrett, Eder, McCambly, Perez, Hoeing, Fulton, etc.

To me, the wiser option when looking at the big picture, even potentially in the short term, is option B where you trade him. The only reason I wouldn't pull the trigger is if you're just not getting good enough offers, but I find that hard to believe when he could be an ace on many teams in the league, and at worst, a very good #2 on a WS team, in a market where all the contenders are looking to add SP, and many of them have intriguing packages to offer that fit Miami's needs.

It's all package dependent, but yes it may make sense to move him.


Let's say they did move him. $65m entering 2023 for this (can also get down to $55m if you take out Wendle/Rojas and Anderson... and get under $50m if Stallings and Bleier are moved):

Fortes, Stallings
Lewin
Jazz
_____, Rojas/Wendle
Anderson, Williams
Bleday
_____, Sanchez
Garcia
Soler

Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Rogers, Garrett
_____, Bender, Pop, Poteet, Hernandez
Scott, Bleier, ______


The trades here are Pablo, Aguilar, Cooper, Berti, one of Rojas/Wendle, Bass, Floro, Okert, and Sulser. They'd get a FV55/50, FV50, FV45, two FV45/40+, FV40+, five FV40, and two FV35+ prospects minimum.

So the farm is then this:

FV60 (Elite) - Eury
FV55 (Borderline Elite) - Meyer, Pablo Asset 1
FV50 (Great) - Salas, Watson, Berry, Pablo Asset 2
FV45+/FV45 (Good) - Eder, Lewis, Cappe, Burdick, Fulton, Morisette, Non-Pablo Deadline Asset ("NPDA") 1 and 2

Like, this is 15 deep now of really legitimate guys, and Fortes (6), Lewin (6), Jazz (4), Bleday (6), Sanchez (5), Garcia (3), Sandy (5), Luzardo (4), Cabrera (6), Rogers (4), Garrett (5), Bender (4), Poteet (5), and Pop (5) have A LOT of control here. So they don't need to pull from all of these guys.

Then this is where it gets really interesting:

FV40+/FV40 (Projectable Prospects) - Sixto, Mack, Nunez, Miller, Millbrandt, R. Hernandez, A. Santos, Pablo Asset 3, AND NPDA Asset 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8(!!!!)

This group has like a floor of 12 here if I am being too generous with the trades (however Benintendi trade says I am right).... but the Marlins are trading guys with control so likely 14-15 more guys (maybe a guy below moves up, etc.). The farm is 30 guys deep and all this cost was those guys who literally they do not need and Pablo. For perspective, the Rays have FV40 guys going all the way down to player 37(!) right now so this is within the realm of possibility. Their FV45 and better end guys go to 18 deep (Marlins would be 15 with the above), so like, this is the Rays blueprint everyone wants. Control at MLB level and deep as hell farm.

AND THEN...

FV35+ (Decent hopes and prayers) - Nardi, Fitterer, Soriano, McCambley, McCants, Mesa Jr., Palacios, Hoeing, etc. (probably another 5-10 deep of guys who are something). They will likely not get much here, but I bet there are some middle/back end relievers lurking about.


So bringing it back to the point, you're rolling with a deep 25 player farm NOT trading Pablo so is it better to keep him as you've built this all to trade from and payroll is low $70m to fit in Nimmo/Swanson (or whoever) and there is absolutely trade assets here to move for upgrades. You could move 8-10 prospects in the offseason and have a solid 15+ player farm.Which is fine with those MLB service time years of control and upside above.

Or do you want Pablo to plug one of those holes above, still sign Nimmo/Swanson, and then trade 3-4 guys from presumably "Salas, Watson, Pablo Asset 2, Lewis, Cappe, Burdick, Fulton, Morisette, Non-Pablo Deadline Asset ("NPDA") 1 and 2" for a better play now guy with control, and then trade another 2-4 guys from "Nunez, Miller, Millbrandt, R. Hernandez, A. Santos, Pablo Asset 3, AND NPDA Asset 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8" to upgrade the bullpen. In this scenario, the farm is STILL 20 players deep and you effectively have 6 top 100 prospects, with Eder beating at the door.


I can be swayed either way here, so hence as I think through this. It's package dependent for Pablo. There is no rush to move him. He's great and would get a package in the offseason also.

But the end result here for me is:

Must trade all/most of - Aguilar, Cooper, Berti, one of Rojas/Wendle, Bass, Floro, Okert, and Sulser. This builds out that FV45/40 class of prospects with literally 7-9 more guys and that is huge for depth. None of these guys are needed next year at all combined with their cumulative cost savings to buy another free agent.

If it makes sense - Pablo, Bleier, Stallings, Soler, and Garcia can all go, obviously the former for the mega package, and the others are closer to salary dumps to open even more payroll for next year if that is possible. Even if Bruce only authorizes $80m, shaving off $3m for Stallings and Bleier would be helpful you know. Every dollar counts.


Frankly, the team is in a great position to be really good very quickly. They just have to do these medium trades, and then make those 3-4 plant the flag moves with Pablo/FA Money/prospect trade(s).

So many permutations work here I will be furious if nothing continues to happen. They only have themselves to blame if they can't figure this out as they just need 2 bats, another high end arm for right now, and another upgrade somewhere.

[lou]

Sandy 10th most valuable and # 1 SP - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-trade-value-1-to-10/

I think this is low as he has more control than Vlad, he's better than Robert, Tatis has over $332m in guarantees and something can go wrong there, and likewise Wander has $178m in guarantees and something can go wrong.

I think after reading this Julio, Acuna, J. Ramirez, Soto (even with only 2 years he has so much upside), and Alvarez (safe bat) are the top 5. I'd put Sandy 6th.

Either way, thank god he is here. Hopefully they give him the guys he needs to win next year.

[lou]

Just saw they went double slot money ($750k to $1.5m) to sign third round pick Millbrandt.

They are consistently doing this (Banfield, Fitterer), so hopefully this is the one that pans out.

[Lee Stone]

Lou, you have vastly under-rated Eder. Given that he was better than Meyer in AA prior to his TJS and will return a full year ahead of Meyer, Eder and Perez sit alone atop the prospects at this point.

[lou]

Lou, you have vastly under-rated Eder. Given that he was better than Meyer in AA prior to his TJS and will return a full year ahead of Meyer, Eder and Perez sit alone atop the prospects at this point.

I am not under rating him - industry doesn't have him in top 100 yet. Hence, FV45+.

No one is saying he can't move up next year (which I expect him to do). Let's see him healthy with same velocity.

[sports24/7]

I am not under rating him - industry doesn't have him in top 100 yet. Hence, FV45+.

No one is saying he can't move up next year (which I expect him to do). Let's see him healthy with same velocity.

He was top 100 before his injury last year, and I heard Mish say recently in a podcast that the organization has very high hopes for him. Maybe at the same level as Meyer, and he seemed to think he has a chance to make it to the big club next year at some point.

[lou]

Nice call on fishman call up

[Erick]

Sandy 10th most valuable and # 1 SP - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-trade-value-1-to-10/

I think this is low as he has more control than Vlad, he's better than Robert, Tatis has over $332m in guarantees and something can go wrong there, and likewise Wander has $178m in guarantees and something can go wrong.

I think after reading this Julio, Acuna, J. Ramirez, Soto (even with only 2 years he has so much upside), and Alvarez (safe bat) are the top 5. I'd put Sandy 6th.

Either way, thank god he is here. Hopefully they give him the guys he needs to win next year.

Seems like their reasoning for ranking him 10 is the volatility of pitching in general, which I guess makes some sense.

I agree with you though.

[sports24/7]

Mariners get Luis Castillo for Marte, Levi Stoudt, Edwin Arroyo, and Dylan Moore. That sets the bar for a Pablo trade as he’s essentially just as good as Castillo with more controlled years.

If the Marlins had the chance to get that, and end up keeping Pablo that would be pretty disappointing, and damning for Kim Ng. Hopefully she’ll be able to get something similar, though. The good news is, with Castillo gone, Pablo is pretty much the unquestioned best SP available, which could potentially even drive his price higher.

[lou]

Mariners get Luis Castillo for Marte, Levi Stoudt, Edwin Arroyo, and Dylan Moore. That sets the bar for a Pablo trade as he’s essentially just as good as Castillo with more controlled years.

If the Marlins had the chance to get that, and end up keeping Pablo that would be pretty disappointing, and damning for Kim Ng. Hopefully she’ll be able to get something similar, though. The good news is, with Castillo gone, Pablo is pretty much the unquestioned best SP available, which could potentially even drive his price higher.

Holy shit.

Bye Pablo if he gets more than that. Marte is exactly the guy they need.

Call up the Yankees and get Volpe

[emkayseven]

Sorry for the outage everyone. Should be back now.

[Erick]

If the intention is to trade Pablo, pretty dumb to start him today.

Which I guess makes sense since most of Kim Ng’s moves have been pretty dumb.

[Erick]

If the intention is to trade Pablo, pretty dumb to start him today.

Which I guess makes sense since most of Kim Ng’s moves have been pretty dumb.

12 hits allowed in 2.2 innings LOL.

Kim Ng: “It’s just bad luck.”