2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[Namaste]

Brian Anderson has a long track record of not living up to his potential. Garrett Cooper has a long track record of getting hurt all the time, plus Berti's FanGraphs WAR is .6 higher than Cooper's this year, despite playing 24 fewer games..

I agree with all of this (and also how Berti is consistently undervalued on this board).

But if I could only have one of Berti or Wendle I’d take Wendle.

[Namaste]

Good stuff.

in 2008 Mike Jacobs had 32 HRs an OPS over .800 and a -2 WAR. Wut?

Fangraphs has him at a -1.0 WAR in 2008 but, yeah, that’s a deluxe head scratcher find. His Defense was -26.6!

[lou]

I agree with all of this (and also how Berti is consistently undervalued on this board).

But if I could only have one of Berti or Wendle I’d take Wendle.

I agree here - if I can have one of Berti or Wendle (....and Anderson and Cooper and Rojas), I'm keeping Wendle. He's playing at a 5.3 WAR pace this year (!). Cut that in half and I'm happy. Anderson is probably second as he's the youngest and all of these guys are probably 2.5 WAR players ultimately.

Look no further than the Florida Panthers right now. BOLD UNPOPULAR TRADES. Go get your guys and follow the longterm vision. The Heat and Dolphins also do this. They are trading insane value for superstars in their prime (Butler, Hill, Tkachuk). It's the Marlins turn for a massive plant the flag move. None of this let's get a 2+ WAR guy on every position and hope Jazz has an 8 WAR season shit is going to work. Bleday and Lewin are not coming up and saving the day by themselves.

This team flat out needs a 4 player major offensive injection how I see it. I can give them Bleday/Lewin/Berry coming up as combined "1" of those as there is only so much they can do and you'd hope one of them is pretty good. You can wait and see how that works out and get to the deadline. Which leaves Bruce spending money for a second (Nimmo/Swanson seem most logical to me), and then back to October 2021 discussions.... what pitchers are getting moved for at least 2 bats?

I fluctuate on the pitching weekly, but I'm team Pablo right now. Let's trust them to find pitching, as they have the track record. I think they can trade a second big arm also, but if you gotta start somewhere, it's Pablo right now. Especially with Garrett's emergence into a maybe 4/5 SP.

I keep getting back to Nolan Gorman scanning baseball. The positional fit is so horrible for STL right now and the Marlins have subsidiary players they really need. They could use a 2B, general bat upgrade and RP..... Something like

Pablo, Berti, Cooper, and Bass (which will only raise STL payroll $3-4m) for

Gorman, Grafecco (FV50 SP 2 years away... they need their other prospects IMO as their other good ones are a lefty SP for now, longterm C, longterm SS, and Jordan Walker who is further away than Gorman and likely untouchable), they have a deep stable of FV40 guys so pick 1-2, and as a kicker, eat C. Dickerson's salary (which basically sheds another $2+m or so for STL so they are only adding $1-2m which is important).

Like that would be awesome to get Gorman and a SP ranked around Eder level. So this is 2023 then $66m roughly:

Fortes, Stallings
Gorman,* Lewin
Jazz, L. Williams
Rojas
Wendle
Bleday, Sanchez
_____
Garcia
Soler

Sandy, Luzardo, Meyer, Rogers/Garrett, Cabrera
______, Bender, Pop, Poteet, Hernandez
Scott, Rogers/Garrett, Bleier

Mid-season Berry, Eury, Eder, Sixto
(*Gorman moves to 3B longterm as Wendle is better defensively now, which trickles Berry longterm to 1B/DH which is more appropriate)


And you still have Anderson and Okert to trade which should net some quality A ball players or play soon relievers....

CF blank line call it Nimmo or kick one or Rojas/Wendle off the team and sign Swanson. That gets you in either scenario to $90m payroll.

AND then I still think you need another bat so you round it out with a 5-2 trade like:

Salas/Watson
Cabrera/Grafecco/Eder
Stallings/Lewin/Bleday/Sanchez
Fitterer/Reynolds/Soriano/McCambley

With the incoming players being (1) an upgrade to whoever of Stallings/Lewin/Bleday/Sanchez you traded and (2) a reliever. This isn't quite the Yelich package, but this is effectively two top 100 guys, and very interesting flyers, so you're going to get someone really good. Not Bryan Reynolds good, but you probably get Laureano and AJ Puk for that.

So long story long let's say Salas, Grafecco/Eder, Bleday/Sanchez, and Reynolds turn into Laureano and Puk (and maybe another prospect lower level) - this is $95m for 2023

Fortes, Stallings
Gorman, Lewin
Jazz, L. Williams
Rojas
Wendle
Garcia, Bleday/Sanchez
Nimmo
Laureano
Soler

Sandy, Luzardo, Meyer, Rogers/Garrett, Cabrera
Bender, Pop, Poteet, Hernandez
Puk, Scott, Rogers/Garrett, Bleier

Top prospects not above - Eury, Berry, Salas/Watson, Grafecco/Eder, Lewis, Cappe, Burdick, Fulton, Morisette, Mack, R. Hernandez, Sixto, Miller, Millbrandt


Awesome team once Eury and Berry land, with extremely interesting farm after that.

In 2024, you lose some guys to FA and still have this. It's a big hole at SS, but if all went right, you have another SP surplus with one of Grafecco/Eder, Fulton, Miller, Millbrandt, and maybe someone else after this.

Fortes, Stallings
Berry, Lewin
Jazz
______, _______
Gorman
Garcia, Bleday/Sanchez
Nimmo
Laureano
Soler

Sandy, Eury, Luzardo, Meyer, Rogers/Garrett
Bender, Cabrera, Sixto, Poteet, Pop
Puk, Scott, Rogers/Garrett



Good times. It's time to make the SP move unless they win next 7 games

[rmc523]

I guess part of what I hate about a lot of these ideas is we’re again trading for prospects that have a history of fizzling out once they get here.

[Lee Stone]

Luzardo and Cabrera outstanding in 4-inning rehab starts last night.

[Erick]

I agree here - if I can have one of Berti or Wendle (....and Anderson and Cooper and Rojas), I'm keeping Wendle. He's playing at a 5.3 WAR pace this year (!). Cut that in half and I'm happy. Anderson is probably second as he's the youngest and all of these guys are probably 2.5 WAR players ultimately.

Look no further than the Florida Panthers right now. BOLD UNPOPULAR TRADES. Go get your guys and follow the longterm vision. The Heat and Dolphins also do this. They are trading insane value for superstars in their prime (Butler, Hill, Tkachuk). It's the Marlins turn for a massive plant the flag move. None of this let's get a 2+ WAR guy on every position and hope Jazz has an 8 WAR season shit is going to work. Bleday and Lewin are not coming up and saving the day by themselves.

This team flat out needs a 4 player major offensive injection how I see it. I can give them Bleday/Lewin/Berry coming up as combined "1" of those as there is only so much they can do and you'd hope one of them is pretty good. You can wait and see how that works out and get to the deadline. Which leaves Bruce spending money for a second (Nimmo/Swanson seem most logical to me), and then back to October 2021 discussions.... what pitchers are getting moved for at least 2 bats?

I fluctuate on the pitching weekly, but I'm team Pablo right now. Let's trust them to find pitching, as they have the track record. I think they can trade a second big arm also, but if you gotta start somewhere, it's Pablo right now. Especially with Garrett's emergence into a maybe 4/5 SP.

I keep getting back to Nolan Gorman scanning baseball. The positional fit is so horrible for STL right now and the Marlins have subsidiary players they really need. They could use a 2B, general bat upgrade and RP..... Something like

Pablo, Berti, Cooper, and Bass (which will only raise STL payroll $3-4m) for

Gorman, Grafecco (FV50 SP 2 years away... they need their other prospects IMO as their other good ones are a lefty SP for now, longterm C, longterm SS, and Jordan Walker who is further away than Gorman and likely untouchable), they have a deep stable of FV40 guys so pick 1-2, and as a kicker, eat C. Dickerson's salary (which basically sheds another $2+m or so for STL so they are only adding $1-2m which is important).

Like that would be awesome to get Gorman and a SP ranked around Eder level. So this is 2023 then $66m roughly:

Fortes, Stallings
Gorman,* Lewin
Jazz, L. Williams
Rojas
Wendle
Bleday, Sanchez
_____
Garcia
Soler

Sandy, Luzardo, Meyer, Rogers/Garrett, Cabrera
______, Bender, Pop, Poteet, Hernandez
Scott, Rogers/Garrett, Bleier

Mid-season Berry, Eury, Eder, Sixto
(*Gorman moves to 3B longterm as Wendle is better defensively now, which trickles Berry longterm to 1B/DH which is more appropriate)


And you still have Anderson and Okert to trade which should net some quality A ball players or play soon relievers....

CF blank line call it Nimmo or kick one or Rojas/Wendle off the team and sign Swanson. That gets you in either scenario to $90m payroll.

AND then I still think you need another bat so you round it out with a 5-2 trade like:

Salas/Watson
Cabrera/Grafecco/Eder
Stallings/Lewin/Bleday/Sanchez
Fitterer/Reynolds/Soriano/McCambley

With the incoming players being (1) an upgrade to whoever of Stallings/Lewin/Bleday/Sanchez you traded and (2) a reliever. This isn't quite the Yelich package, but this is effectively two top 100 guys, and very interesting flyers, so you're going to get someone really good. Not Bryan Reynolds good, but you probably get Laureano and AJ Puk for that.

So long story long let's say Salas, Grafecco/Eder, Bleday/Sanchez, and Reynolds turn into Laureano and Puk (and maybe another prospect lower level) - this is $95m for 2023

Fortes, Stallings
Gorman, Lewin
Jazz, L. Williams
Rojas
Wendle
Garcia, Bleday/Sanchez
Nimmo
Laureano
Soler

Sandy, Luzardo, Meyer, Rogers/Garrett, Cabrera
Bender, Pop, Poteet, Hernandez
Puk, Scott, Rogers/Garrett, Bleier

Top prospects not above - Eury, Berry, Salas/Watson, Grafecco/Eder, Lewis, Cappe, Burdick, Fulton, Morisette, Mack, R. Hernandez, Sixto, Miller, Millbrandt


Awesome team once Eury and Berry land, with extremely interesting farm after that.

In 2024, you lose some guys to FA and still have this. It's a big hole at SS, but if all went right, you have another SP surplus with one of Grafecco/Eder, Fulton, Miller, Millbrandt, and maybe someone else after this.

Fortes, Stallings
Berry, Lewin
Jazz
______, _______
Gorman
Garcia, Bleday/Sanchez
Nimmo
Laureano
Soler

Sandy, Eury, Luzardo, Meyer, Rogers/Garrett
Bender, Cabrera, Sixto, Poteet, Pop
Puk, Scott, Rogers/Garrett



Good times. It's time to make the SP move unless they win next 7 games

Completely different sport, but some good comps.

Sandy = Barkov
Tkachuk = the CF’er we don’t have

And to add to it, Avisail Garcia is Sergei Bobrovsky probably…

[Erick]

It seems like Bleday is getting promoted soon. Joining the team in Pittsburgh.

[Lee Stone]

It seems like Bleday is getting promoted soon. Joining the team in Pittsburgh.

Bleday's a sub-.200 hitter in the majors I would think. He whiffs at a higher rate in Jacksonville than Jesus Sanchez does in the majors this season.

Garrett is the breakout guy this season and is progressing like Tom Glavine did at Atlanta.

[fish16]

Bleday's a sub-.200 hitter in the majors I would think. He whiffs at a higher rate in Jacksonville than Jesus Sanchez does in the majors this season.

Garrett is the breakout guy this season and is progressing like Tom Glavine did at Atlanta.

Bleday will be decent with some struggles, but he walks a ton and has good plate discipline despite the struggles so he will be an improvement

[Erick]

Meyer is injured and it looked like Tommy John.

This is why I’m hesitant to trade Pablo/the pitching in general.

If they plan on competing next year, I think they’re going to need innings from all the depth they have. Worst case scenario, they stay healthy and a couple of them can go to the pen.

Aside from Sandy, no one can be counted on to be reliable/durable every 5th day. There are good arms in the system, but most are young and they’d have to piece it together.

I would rather act like a real team and sign hitters.

After all, last year, the best rumor we got was Meyer for Marsh who is another typical Marlins type hitter that doesn’t solve our problems.

[Namaste]

The Marlins hit into 5 double plays and it’s more likely than not that Max Meyer needs TJ. Perfect (very Marlins) night.

[rmc523]

Meyer is injured and it looked like Tommy John.

This is why I’m hesitant to trade Pablo/the pitching in general.

If they plan on competing next year, I think they’re going to need innings from all the depth they have. Worst case scenario, they stay healthy and a couple of them can go to the pen.

Aside from Sandy, no one can be counted on to be reliable/durable every 5th day. There are good arms in the system, but most are young and they’d have to piece it together.

I would rather act like a real team and sign hitters.

After all, last year, the best rumor we got was Meyer for Marsh who is another typical Marlins type hitter that doesn’t solve our problems.

The pitching injuries happen every year yet every year they lean on this young pitching surplus we supposedly have and refuse to sign a vet starter. And instead of actually using some of the young guys, they keep trotting out bullpen days for weeks on end every year.

[Lee Stone]

Hope that Lewin Diaz and mayibe LeBlanc join the team today.

[lou]

The pitching injuries happen every year yet every year they lean on this young pitching surplus we supposedly have and refuse to sign a vet starter. And instead of actually using some of the young guys, they keep trotting out bullpen days for weeks on end every year.

Well in their defense, Luzardo, Meyer, and Cabrera have all been hurt pretty much the entire year, and relying on Garrett has turned out to be quite the story. Their 4-5-6 SP are all hurt and 3 (Rogers) and 7 (Hernandez) are ineffective. Garrett as your 8th starting opening day is a surplus. The unfortunate thing here is Rogers has been bad and Garcia/Stallings worse, so everything negative is amplified. The frustration is they are bad and now really hurt, even offensively. It's just a mess.

This team is still in good shape with the payroll flexibility and farm surplus right now. They just have to use it correctly - or at all as payroll is comical. Same story.

Nice opening for Bleday though!

[lou]

Fangraphs trade value chart - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-trade-value-41-50/

Honorable Mention (call it somewhere next 30-40 players somewhere unranked) - Pablo (low years control), Rogers (volatile), Eury (unproven).

Let's wait to see how high Sandy and Jazz are. I think Sandy may be top 5, but maybe it's top 10. Jazz is probably in 30-40 as he is really volatile even if there is upside. Maybe I am wrong.... and just to mention Laureano and Gorman are honorable mentions.


I am pretty convinced something like this is the best thing to do:

Pablo
Berti or Rojas (for their 2B platoon)
Cooper (Dickerson/Pujols replacement)
Bass or Okert or Floro
Maybe an option-able reliever, like Head or Nance, they could just have on call

for

Gorman
Graffeco or Winn (FV50 SP or SS...Winn is years away, Graffeco much sooner so I'd target him)
Hence or or McGreevy (FV40+ arms)
Dickerson or DeJong + another prospect (salary dump and massive dump if it's DeJong as he make $9m next year with a $2m buyout thereafter)
Maybe a throw-in outside 20 guy


Then plenty of prospects/players to trade (Anderson, Rojas, Okert, Floro, can live without one of Salas/Watson, can live with Pablo piece # 2 above.....) for a longterm SS/CF and more RP, and sign the other (Nimmo/Swanson/etc.).

Let's see some vision!