2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[lou]

I hope they understand the stakes. But I said that last offseason and they didn’t do much of note, and yet I’m still here. Shame on me I guess.

Nah. This is a fool me once scenario.

It's very reasonable for them to not spend until 2022. The teams weren't good. They have the pieces now, they should have added the last 2 bats + maybe a bench/bullpen upgrade this year. Fooled us once. It's honestly why I haven't watched a GAME this year. Fuck them.

They do this shit again this deadline/offseason, it's a shame on us scenario if we stick around. I want to see the "big plant the flag" move before figuring out if this is it for the ownership group. If it doesn't happen this offseason, that's it. No upside prospect and solid ordinary "Aguilar" level veteran for the other offensive hole. Pedal to the metal with these pitchers or see ya. They have a top 5 pitcher, a really legitimate # 2 in Pablo, the # 1 pitching prospect in baseball by all accounts, a guy pitching like an ace (Luzardo) before he got hurt, a guy off a 4 WAR pitching year having a soph slump but should be better in some respect, and behind this two more top 100 SP prospects, a third one who is injured (Eder), and some more interesting guys (Fulton, Sixto). They do jack shit with this arsenal and I'm going to get a Pirates hat and root for the new underdog or whatever as at least Cruz/Hayes/Reynolds and their other guys are fun.

[Erick]

I like the Brandon Nimmo idea. He's also not a flashy player so maybe it wouldn't cost that much. Idk, either way, he's a good player who would slot in as a CF'er/leadoff hitter for us. Also a left-handed bat which we could use (even though this lineup is weird and they're worse against LHP despite all the right-handed hitters).

[Nick]

Nah. This is a fool me once scenario.

It's very reasonable for them to not spend until 2022. The teams weren't good. They have the pieces now, they should have added the last 2 bats + maybe a bench/bullpen upgrade this year. Fooled us once. It's honestly why I haven't watched a GAME this year. Fuck them.

They do this shit again this deadline/offseason, it's a shame on us scenario if we stick around. I want to see the "big plant the flag" move before figuring out if this is it for the ownership group. If it doesn't happen this offseason, that's it. No upside prospect and solid ordinary "Aguilar" level veteran for the other offensive hole. Pedal to the metal with these pitchers or see ya. They have a top 5 pitcher, a really legitimate # 2 in Pablo, the # 1 pitching prospect in baseball by all accounts, a guy pitching like an ace (Luzardo) before he got hurt, a guy off a 4 WAR pitching year having a soph slump but should be better in some respect, and behind this two more top 100 SP prospects, a third one who is injured (Eder), and some more interesting guys (Fulton, Sixto). They do jack shit with this arsenal and I'm going to get a Pirates hat and root for the new underdog or whatever as at least Cruz/Hayes/Reynolds and their other guys are fun.

I said last offseason was the last straw for me. Obviously that wasn't the case. The Marlins have been shitting on me since I was a child and I'm still here, I'll probably pass on my pain to my son at this point.

[Namaste]

Alfaro has a 128 OPS+

we deserve better than that

[fish16]

Alfaro has a 128 OPS+

we deserve better than that

honestly not that sad to see him go. he wouldn't be doing that here, which is an issue in and of itself, but id bet those numbers come way down before the end of the year. His plate discipline was by far some of the worst I've ever seen, and its not like that's improved this year. His K and BB % is still the same, the biggest difference is he's hitting fly balls 10% more and ground balls 10% less than he has in any other year other than 2 years ago when he was also terrible. I'd bet his numbers come down to alfaro level by the end of the year if he continues to get playing time. Even his hard, medium and soft hit % is crazy similar to what it was last year as well. He will normalize.

Fortes is better than him. The issue is we insist on playing stallings as a starter instead of as the backup because for some reason our organization refuses to take performance into account when determining playing time (or who the manager is).

[lou]

Alfaro has a 128 OPS+

we deserve better than that

Nick Fortes is fixing all the wrongs here FWIW! But they should have kept Alfaro for sure.





Also big picture for what to do next year. Let's do a deep dive on league wide SS depth.

Free agency is - Correa, Turner, Boegarts, and Swason. So four BIG ones.


NYY - Super SS prospects coming (Volpe, Peraza), probably spending money elsewhere (Judge)
TOR - Bichette
BOS - Story can play either spot, maybe landing place for someone... but Mayer top 25 overall prospect so do they wait or stopgap?
TB - Wander
BAL - Maybe landing place for someone, might be a year early for them to spend big

MIN - Top 3 hitting prospects SS (Lewis, Martin, Miller). Probably not big investment here
CLE - Won't spend on these guys + Gimenez
CHW - Anderson (club option)
DET - 2 of top 4 hitting prospects SS + Biaz. I think they'll be on the cheap end, just like Min
KC - Witt

HOU - Pena
TEX - Seager
LAA - Never can count them out even with big money deals out there. They need a longterm SS for sure since Rendon has died
SEA - Crawford + N. Marte top 20 overall prospect
OAK - Not spending this kind of money

NYM - Lindor + likely will be spending on SP with older SP + Luciano top 50 overall prospect
ATL - # 3/4 hitting prospects SS and they may have to spend elsewhere. Maybe landing spot for a Swanson discount
PHI - They have way too much money devoted all over, no chance at this price + Stott top 40 overall prospect
WASH - Luis Garcia deserves a year (FV50 prospect up). Major spending likely a year early until Soto figured out
MIA - Could use a contending upgrade if ownership will spend, with top SS prospects (Watson, Salas, Cappe, 3+ years away)

MIL - Adames
STL - Edman, darkhorse maybe if Arenado opts out and Edman moves to 2B w/ Gorman to 3B. But top prospects also a 3B
PITT - Cruz, probably won't spend a year early also
CHC - They will be spending money and 100% chance one of these 4 guys. They will move Nico elsewhere
CIN - Rebuild, not spending big on these guys + Elly De La Cruz top 75 prospect

LAD - Always a threat even if Luz/Taylor could handle. Crazy spenders
SDP - Tatis
SF - Crawford is signed for real money next year, will spend elsewhere + Luciano top 20 overall prospect
ARI - # 2 prospect a SS (top 75 overall) and # 3 hitter also a SS (Perdomo top 100 prospect), likely not a spender at these levels. Darkhorse though
COL - # 3 prospect a SS + Rodgers/Hampson, also likely not spending on IF after Bryant/McMahon deals and always needing pitching


So when we're looking at this board, I'm only seeing 6-7 clubs that may really go for a longterm SS, and then others like NYY/ARI may be opportunistic (like Minn. this year) if one of these deals lag.

1 - Cubs are an unarguable. They will spend like the big market team they are. I assume Correa/Turner.

2 - I think Baltimore is also virtually unarguable. They have interesting pieces, and this is a spend a year early (like Texas with Seager/Siemen this year) to help them. You know, what a normal fucking team does to help their kids. Talking to your BRUCE. Maybe I am wrong and they wait 1 more year, but they really need a longterm SS and this is a prime opportunity to do it.


So now we're talking LAD in major luxury tax hell, LAA has 7 players on the books next year for $120m - which does NOT include Ohtani so call it 8 for close to $150m, and BOS kind of made their MI bed last year with Story, but they have a good payroll set up next year and probably have $80m+ to spend on whatever they want. They may turn their prospect into another piece and keep Xander. And then there is Atlanta, who is probably at $130m payroll next year, and maybe spend $30-50m range depending on if they keep getting playoff hypes.


What I'm saying here is, CHC and BAL aren't going the Swanson route, it's likely the mega deals Correa and Turner want. Xander is a little older, but Boston might do it on a hometown discount. Swanson may be a resign, but he is not doing a discount with his age and pedigree.


I'm not saying Bruce will spend, but this is a perfect storm for them to do the Jayson Werth SS deal as outside CHC/BAL, they might have the most incentive in baseball to sign one of these guys for a few million more as Miami payroll will be $70-80m overall payroll and their closest competition is likely Boston/Atlanta doing resigns and they have much much much more payroll on the books. So frankly, Miami can get the player or make Atlanta PAY UP for Swanson.

Interestingly - Miami could also trade Wendle/Rojas to Boston/LAA early in the offseason and knock out some of their competition. Those are perfect bridge guys to wait a year or two. Teams may have a real interest in Wendle at $6m next year to not pay up for one of these 4 elite guys while they wait for a prospect.



So to bring this full circle, how this impacts the front office right now - it's Nimmo or bust at CF next year in FA and every club likely has room for an OF upgrade, so it makes the most sense to go find a CF via trade as more opportunities will be available at SS. That likely includes trades also as the top 100 prospects are littered with SS.


Just saying here, they can do this for likely under $100m including Soler opting in and keeping Pablo. Bruce has gotta spend this. There isn't going to be another moment where 4 great SS are free agents in their prime, and only 6-7 clubs will take them, with only 2-3 having a real motivation besides splurging on money.

I like to think this is what the FO is thinking longterm and why we're hearing rumblings they aggressive want Laureano. That makes a lot of sense to me. Pair a cheaper CF with an expensive SS. Hold on to Eury/Cabrera/Meyer/Eder in the process and sacrifice Watson/Salas, as you did good with Cappe/Lewis/Morisette pipeline you can lose one of these up the middle guys.

[geemoney]

Gary Denbo has been fired, per Mish. I guess that was a matter of time once Jeter left.

[Nick]

Gary Denbo has been fired, per Mish. I guess that was a matter of time once Jeter left.

Yep Denbo was Jeter's guy. One thing we do know for the 1st time maybe since pre-Loria, we know 100% who is running the show. With Hill and Beinfest, it was always, "well, how many of these moves were just Loria power-tripping and going above their heads?" This is Kim Ng's show now, she's gotta sink or swim.

[rmc523]

Yep Denbo was Jeter's guy. One thing we do know for the 1st time maybe since pre-Loria, we know 100% who is running the show. With Hill and Beinfest, it was always, "well, how many of these moves were just Loria power-tripping and going above their heads?" This is Kim Ng's show now, she's gotta sink or swim.

Well given what we've seen so far, it seems like things will sink further...

[lou]

Well given what we've seen so far, it seems like things will sink further...

Good write up on STL prospects - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/st-louis...rospects-2022/

Gorman is a terrible fit for them defensively with Arenado (might opt out, or in to 6 years), Goldschmidt (23-24), and J. Walker (late 2023/2024 ETA FV60). The important thing strategically here is St. Louis is contending so its pretty hard for them to justify having an imperfect defensive team - kind of like rostering Aguilar, Cooper, and Soler with no CF on the roster - when you can make a trade and fix other areas of the club without impacting the longterm view. Cardinals need pitching very badly.

Marlins could quickly solve things for a contending STL with Meyer/Cabrera, Wendle (2B), and a reliever (or two) for Gorman and a FV40 guy or two outside their top 10-15. Probably could also just throw in Hernandez also and they'd probably fix him. Gorman is a step up from the risk in SP IMO, so Marlins have to juice the deal with Wendle and likely a good bullpen arm to get them to do it.

Cardinals get the innings right now and understand how to bridge their SP into the rotation (another concept lost on the Marlins) and Wendle is a very solid player under control next year. That gives their best MI prospect (Winn in AA) another year for a 2024 eta.

Gorman plays all over this year for Miami, and then 3B full time starting next year (Anderson - traded now for P or offseason) until Salas/Cappe is presumably ready and then Gorman shifts to 1B longterm when that happens as he'll be a defensive liability down the road. Dude is going to mash which is the important thing here.

This is a really good matchup. I'm hoping the front office is looking for opportunities such as this.


Then we're talking get Laureano/other CF (use Watson even) and spend big on an offseason SS and the team is fantastic on paper once all the spare parts of this year are shot out for future RP.

Let's see some shit here or I agree - sink further as massive offensive upgrades (and health) are needed right now.

[Namaste]

Okert has a 11.4 K/9. He’s likely gone if the Marlins don’t take advantage of their July schedule.

[fish16]

if we fall out of it id really like to at the very least see Lewin Diaz and Leblanc up here. And maybe its a bit too early until he gets the average up, but Bleday deserves a shot as well soon. He's having a really good year other than the lower average. He's finally hitting for a ton of power and also walking a shit ton.

[lou]

Okert has a 11.4 K/9. He’s likely gone if the Marlins don’t take advantage of their July schedule.

I think he is a perfect guy to try and sell high on. 4+ FIP. Assuming they drop out. A lot of garbage games coming against Wash and Cincy so maybe they figure it out with the new and improved .747 OPS Garcia (June split).


My bullpen vision is still

______ < - Major upgrade TBD
Bass (or Sulser or Floro or Hernandez or cheap under $3m FA similar to Bass/Bleier)
Bender
Poteet
Pop/revolving door right handers
_____(or Bleier if can't be traded)
Scott
Garrett/Castano/revolving door left handers

This is a good bullpen when you anticipate others likely get traded out this deadline, and Eury/Eder/Sixto are in AAA for some real impact. Ng recently mentioned Soriano in particular (along with Eury and Jerar) as the farm surprises, so they must like him too and he's in AAA doing solid work.

[lou]

if we fall out of it id really like to at the very least see Lewin Diaz and Leblanc up here. And maybe its a bit too early until he gets the average up, but Bleday deserves a shot as well soon. He's having a really good year other than the lower average. He's finally hitting for a ton of power and also walking a shit ton.

I mean absolutely. Leblanc lesser so, but Lewin, Bleday, and Burdick need some time and maybe one snorts whatever Fortes is on.

[fish16]

In true marlins fashion, just as the schedule lightens up, Jazz goes on the DL and now Soler is going as well. It better fucking be Bleday or at the very least Jerar and not someone like Luke Williams. Its time to stop fucking around. They love these journeymen shit older middle infield types instead of giving their prospects an opportunity.